Wine Country Real Estate Trends in November 2021

Year Over Year Comparisons

In mid-March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic was declared and all parties were told to “Shelter in Place”.  This basically shut down the residential real estate industry through the month of April 2020.  The market then accelerated rapidly in May through November.  Year over year statistical comparisons are therefore going to be skewed by these market aberrations created last year.  The closings of this year are more “normalized” than the closings of November 2020 so it may look like a “slow down” in an otherwise healthy market.

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for November 2021 

We are proud that our brokerage was nominated as one of three finalists in the 2021 Rotary Ethics in Business Awards for large businesses in Northern California.  We were the only real estate company among the nine finalists.  Our emphasis on PAIGE (Passion, Authenticity, Inclusion, Growth and Excellence) values contributes to our recognition as an ethical company and we thank our staff and agents for believing in doing the right thing. 

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group enjoyed 53 closings in November 2021 compared to 58 last November and 60 last month.  In November, we closed homes with a total value of $32 million compared to $37 million last year and $24 million last month.  The average selling price of the properties sold by BHGRE|WCG in November was $604,840.  This performance was buoyed by a single closing for $11 million dollars by our Broker-Associate Michael Crain.  

BHGRE|WCG currently has 113 pending sales with a value of $56 million dollars.  We are 85% ahead of our unit volume last year.  We have 124 active listings with a value of $75 million dollars.  We are 63% ahead of last year in our listing unit volume.  Our average listing price is $605,000.. 

Congratulations to the following agents who had closings in the month of November:

David Lucido (4); Maria Flores (3); Cheryl Marinaro (3); Laurie Parris (2); Jessica Spencer (2); Parmeeta Ghoman (2); Quirino Aguirre (2); Chelsie Runnings (2); Jessica Hooten; Team Ramos; David Hughes; Amy Wray; Kendra Martin; Elizabeth Davis; Mara Kahn; Zebi Bojarsky; Christine Kettwig; Michelle Perry; Carina DeHerrera; Leo Merle; Michael Crain; Norm Brown; Mark Ahmad; Barbara Cronick; Cameron Ramos; Myriah Bivin; Heather Thurber; Terry Bell; Mireya Nelson; Martha Saly; Randy Knight; Freddie Diaz; Pepe Mendoza; Dan Gallagher; Rob Ross; Nancy Calderon and Elizabeth Davis.

Forecast for National Real Estate in 2022:  Predictions that I heard this morning are a national residential real estate price appreciation of 5.7% – varying from market to market.  Mortgage interest rates are forecast to move up less than 1% over the year and inflation is forecast to be 4%.  An “ideal” inflation rate is said by most economists  to be in the 2% range. 

North Bay Real Estate Trends for November 2021

For all of the areas covered by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, there is an inventory of 1,479 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of November.  Inventory is 32% below that of a year ago (2,165) and it is 24% below the inventory last month (1,949).  At times, the inventory has exceeded 10,000 homes in the BAREIS region.  There were 1,395 sales for the month of November.  This number is 2% above a year ago (1.367) and 8% below the pace of last month (1,512).

Prices normally peak in November and stay level through January.  National forecasts predict increasing inventory and a slowing of price appreciation in the coming months and into 2022. This seems to be happening across Wine Country and we’ll see if this is a seasonal trend (the end of summer market) or a longer term direction.  The median price for all homes closed in the BAREIS region was 13% higher than a year ago.

I have been following a data point I call the “Price Reduction Ratio” (PRR) for the past year, or so.  Across the country, on average, one might expect that 30 to 35% of the homes put into the MLS will have a price reduction before they eventually sell.  Currently, for the entire country, the ratio is 27% up from a low of 15% in April of this year.  For November 2021, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, the range was from 27% (Sonoma and Mendocino Counties) to 32% (Napa County).  Conversely, the ratio of homes selling in excess of Original List Price (OLP) ranged from 48% (Sonoma County) to 43% (Mendocino County).  It was 45% in Napa County.  The average Price Reduction Ratio for all areas has gone a low of 14% in May of this year to 29% where it stands now.  The Over List Price has dropped from 55% in May to the current level of 45%.  These are signs of a cooling market after the heated COVID run-up of last year.

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of November stands at 421.  This is 46% below the inventory in November 2020 (779) and it is 32% below the inventory last month (615).  New sales (444) in Sonoma County in November were 3% ahead of the pace of November 2020 (433) and they were 14% below the pace last month (514).  There is a 0.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 31 (Petaluma) to 117 (Healdsburg) days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 57 days.  The median price of the 492 homes closed in November in Sonoma County was $756,000. This is 11% above the median price in November 2020 ($679,000).  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 100% of their original list price.  

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $2,300,000).  There has been a 79% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (256) from 12/1/20 to 11/30/21 compared to 143 closings in the period 12/1/19 to 11/30/20.  The inventory of luxury homes (105) is equal to the inventory in November 2020 (106 homes).  The pace of new sales (21) in November this year is 61% ahead of the pace of a year ago (13) and it is 9% below the pace last month (23).  The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 100 days this November compared to 81 days a year ago. This compares to 57 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in November.  There is a 5 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 0.9 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 96% of original list price.

Cloverdale:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (26) in Cloverdale at the end of November is 33% below the inventory in November 2020 (39) and it is 16% below the inventory of last month (31).  There were 10 new sales in Cloverdale in November.  This compares to 12 sales in November 2020 and 12 new sales last month.  There is a 2.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 10 homes that closed in November was 65 days.

Coastal Sonoma:  There are 5 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This compares to 5 homes in inventory in November 2020 and 8 homes last month.  There were 4 new sales in November compared to 2 a year ago and 8 last month.  There is now a 1.3 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 9 homes that closed in November was 46 days.  The coastal area market remains a very tight market.

Healdsburg Trends:  There are 57 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month.  This is 29% below the inventory in November 2020 (80) and it is 30% below the inventory last month (81).  New sales in November (22) were 47% above the pace of sales in November 2020 (15) and they were 33% below the sales pace last month (33).  The months of available inventory was 2.6 months at the end of November based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 26 homes that closed in November was 117 days.  

Oakmont:  There are 18 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of November.  This is 63% below the inventory in November 2020 (48) and it is 50% below the inventory of last month (36).  New sales (32) were 167% above the sales pace of a year ago (12) and 7% above the pace of last month (30).  There is a 0.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high $500,000’s up to $800,000.  The median price was $650,000 for the 31 homes that closed in November.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in November was 71 days.  

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of November (27) is 36% below the inventory in November 2020 (42) and it is 45% below the inventory last month (49).  There were 52 new sales for the month.  This is 19% below the sales in November 2020 (64) and it is 6% below the sales pace last month (55).  This is the thirteenth month in a row where new sales have been higher than the existing inventory going into the month.  The Petaluma market currently has 0.5 months supply of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 53 homes that closed in November was $835,000.  This is 11% ahead of the median price last November ($755,000).  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in November was 31 days.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of November (7) is 77% below the inventory in November 2020 (31) and it is 59% below the inventory last month (17).  Inventory hasn’t been this low in Rohnert Park sinc last April when there were just 8 homes for sale.  There were 30 new sales in Rohnert Park in November.  This sales pace is 19% below the 37 sales in November 2020 and it is 21% below the sales last month (38).  This is the eighteenth month in a row where sales were in excess of the inventory at the beginning of the month.  In November, the month started with 17 available properties and there were 30 sales in the month.  There is a 0.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  This is the tightest market in Wine Country.  The median price ($675,000) of the 33 homes and condominiums that closed in November is 7% above the median price in November a year ago ($632,000).  Days on Market for the homes that closed in November was 40 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of November in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (26) is 38% below the level of November 2020 (42) and it is also 38% below the inventory last month (42).  There were 26 new sales for the month of November.  This is 7% below the pace in November 2020 (28) and it is 8% ahead of the pace last month (24).  There is a one months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace.  The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $400,000 to $670,000 over the past year.  The median was $568,000 for the 28 homes that closed in November.  The homes that closed in the Russian River in November went from listing to pending in 61 days.

Santa Rosa:  Forty percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of November (169) is 50% below the inventory of a year ago (340) and it is 27% below the inventory last month (231).  New sales in November (194) are 29% above the pace of last November (151) and they are 16% below the pace last month (231).  There is a 0.9 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 221 homes closed in November in Santa Rosa was $698,000 compared to $619,000 a year ago.  This is a 13% increase.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in November was 55 days.  

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of November in Sebastopol (24) is 17% below the level of November 2020 (29) and it is 37% below the inventory last month (38).  There were 22 new sales for the month of November.  This is 36% below the pace in November 2020 (34) and it is 8% below the pace last month (24).  There is a 1.1 months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace.  The 24 homes that closed in Sebastopol in November went from listing to pending in 57 days.

Sonoma Valley:  The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (57) at the end of November in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 48% below the inventory last November (109) and it is 29% below the inventory of last month (80). Sixty-three percent of the available properties in the Sonoma Valley (36) are priced at $1,000,000, or more. There were 36 new sales for the month. This is equal to the 36 sales in November 2020 and it is 12% below the 41 sales last month.  There is a 1.6 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  The average Days on Market for the 47 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in November is 78 days.  The closings in the month had a selling price equal to 88% of the original listing price – a large drop from the 97% to 100% being experienced over the past several months.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of November starts at $3,750,000.  Twenty-eight homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 18 in the twelve months prior to that.  In November, there were four new sales in this quartile.  There are 16 homes available in this quartile in November 2021 compared to 17 a year ago and 24 last month. Based on the current sales pace, the months of inventory is 4 months.  The average days on market for the two homes that closed in November in this quartile was 155 days.

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of November fell to just 12 properties.  This is 63% below the inventory in November 2020 (32) and it is 57% below the 28 homes last month.  There were 32 new sales for the month.  This is equal to the pace of sales in November 2020 (32) and it is 7% above the pace of last month (30).  There is a 0.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The days on market for the 25 homes that closed in November 2020 in Windsor was 54 days.  The median price ($765,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in November is 13% above the median price a year ago ($680,000).

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of November was 39 homes.  This is 54% below the number of mobile homes available in November 2020 (84) and it is 25% below the number of available mobile homes last month (52).  There were 29 new mobile home sales in November.  This is slightly below the pace of sales in November 2020 (30) and it is also slightly below the pace of sales last month (30).  There is a 1.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 32 mobile homes closed in November was 62 days and the median price was $155,000.  This median price is equal to the median price of $155,000 in November 2020.  

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of November is 308 properties. The current inventory is 14% below the number of lots in November 2020 (359) and it is 4% below the number of available lots last month (320). There were 34 new lot sales in November.  This is 48% above the pace of sales in November 2020 (23) and it is 17% above the pace of lot sales last month (29).  There is a 9.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 33 lots closed in November was 91 days and the median price was $375,000.   

Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of November (180) is 38% below the inventory in November 2020 (290) and it is 25% below the inventory last month (239).  Seventy percent of the inventory in Napa County (126 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above.   New sales (108) are 4% below the pace of last year (113) and are 18% below the 131 sales last month.  There is a 1.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 53 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 114 homes closed in November in Napa County ($765,000) is 3% below the median price of a year ago ($790,000).  Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 96% of original list price.

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $4,000,000 in Napa County at this time.  This is the highest median price for this quartile that we have ever recorded. There has been an increase of 28% for the number of closings (55) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $4,000,000) in Napa County for the period 12/1/20 to 11/30/21 compared to 43 closings in the period 12/1/19 to 11/30/20.  There are 47 luxury homes in inventory at the end of November 2021 compared to 60 homes in inventory at the end of November 2020 and 57 last month. There were 3 new Luxury Home sales in November compared to 4 last year and 10 last month.  This results in a 16 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to a 1.7 months supply for the County as a whole.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 88% of original list price.

American Canyon:  There are just 6 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of November in American Canyon. This is equal to the inventory a year ago (6) and it is 57% below the supply last month (14).  There were 13 new sales in the month.  This is also equal to the pace of last year (13) and it is 30% above the 10 sales last month.  There is a 0.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for 9 homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 46 days. The median price of the homes that closed in American Canyon in November ($785,000) was 30% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($605,000).  The median sold price has been in excess of $750,000 in several months in the past year.  The average price per square foot of the homes sold in American Canyon was at $323 last month, This is in line with the $275 to $350 range where the sales have been over the past several years.

Napa:  Forty-seven percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 84 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of November in the City of Napa. This is 49% below the supply at the end of November 2020 (165) and it is 29% below the inventory at the end of last month (118).  New sales (75) were 12% below the pace of November 2020 (85) and they were 19% below the pace of last month (93). There is a 1.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 84 closings last month was 49 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in November was $758,000. This is slightly higher than the median price of the homes closed in November 2020 ($750,000).

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of November (76) is 26% below the level of 103 in November 2020 and it is 17% below the inventory last month (92).  There were 17 new sales this month compared to 11 a year ago and 23 last month.  There is now a 4.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 19 closings last month was 69 days.  Approximately 57% of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $4,000,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (27 homes). There were 2 luxury home (price in excess of $4,000,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month and there were 2 new luxury home sales.  This makes for a 13.5 month supply of inventory based upon the current sales pace.

In Angwin in November, inventory was 8 homes compared to 10 a year ago and 11 last month.  There were 2 new sales in Angwin for the month compared to none a year ago and 2 last month.  The median price of the active listings in Angwin as of November 2021 is $2,842,000.

Mobile Homes in Napa County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of November is 34 homes.  This is 21% above the number of mobile homes available in November 2020 (28) and it is 17% above the 29 available homes last month.  There were 13 new mobile home sales in November.  This is 32% below the pace of sales in November 2020 (19) and it is 18% above the pace of sales last month (11).  There is a 2.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The average days on market of the 10 mobile homes closed in November was 82 days and the median price was $168,000.  This compares to a median price of $109,000 in November 2020 and $200,000 last month.  The median price of sold mobile homes in Napa seems to vary quite a bit from month to month.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of November fell for the first time since the beginning of the year and stands at 188.  This is 35% above the inventory in November 2020 (139) and it is 3% below the inventory last month (194).  New sales (60) in Mendocino County in November were 3% below the pace of November 2020 (62) and they were 9% above the pace last month (55).  There now is a 3.1 months supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 51 homes sold in Mendocino County in November is 56 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the homes closed in November in Mendocino County was $500,000. This is 2% below the median price in November 2020 ($510,000).  

Ukiah:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of November in Ukiah is 42 homes.  This is 40% ahead of the level of November 2020 (30) and it is 5% below the inventory last month (44).  There were 30 new sales for the month of November.  This is 25% above the number of sales in November 2020 (24) and it is 50% above the sales last month (20).  It’s the highest number os sales in Ukiah for any month since June of 2020.  There is 1.4 months of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 19 closings last month is 40 days.  The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from $370,000 to $519,000. The median price was $500,000 for the homes that closed in November.

Hopland and Talmage:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of November in Hopland and Talmage is 8 homes.  This compares to 11 homes in inventory at the end of November 2020 and 7 homes in inventory last month.  There was one new sale for the month of November.  This compares to two sales in November 2020 and two new sales last month.  There were no closings in the Talmage-Hopland market last month.

Redwood Valley and Calpella:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of November in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 10 homes.  This is 9% below the level of November 2020 (11) and it is 41% below the inventory last month (17).  There were 9 new sales for the month of November.  This compares to 2 sales in November 2020 and 5 new sales last month.  There is a 1.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $725,000.  There were 4 closings in Redwood Valley/Calpella in November at a median price of $527,000 and the homes sold in 40 days. 

Lake County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Lake County at the end of November stands at 438.  This is 46% above the inventory in November 2020 (301) and it is 7% above the inventory last month (408). Closed sales (92) in Lake County in November were 16% below the pace of November 2020 (109) and they were 14% below the pace last month (107).  There now is a 4.5 months supply of inventory in Lake County based on the existing sales pace.  The median Days on Market for the homes sold in Lake County in November is 26 days.  Usually “Days on Market” are traced from listing date to pending date, so the closing date would be somewhat longer.  The median price of the homes closed in November in Lake County was $309,500. This is 5% ahead of the median price in November 2020 ($295,000).  The homes sold in Lake County last month sold at 98% of original list price.

Marin County:  Marin is often considered a “feeder” county to Wine Country.  Marin County’s inventory (171 homes) is 52% below the 353 homes in November 2020 and it is 37% below the 271 homes in inventory last month.  New sales (213) were 16% below the number last November (254) and were 15% below the pace of last month (250).  This creates a 0.8 months supply.  The median price of the 241 homes sold in Marin County in November was $1,335,000.  This is 6% ahead of the median price a year ago ($1,256,000).