Wine Country Real Estate Trends in October 2021

Year Over Year Comparisons

In mid-March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic was declared and all parties were told to “Shelter in Place”.  This basically shut down the residential real estate industry through the month of April 2020.  The market then accelerated rapidly in May through October.  Year over year statistical comparisons are therefore going to be skewed by these market aberrations created last year.  The closings of this year are more “normalized” than the closings of October 2020 so it may look like a “slow down” in an otherwise healthy market.

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for October 2021 

We are proud that our brokerage was nominated as one of three finalists in the 2021 Rotary Ethics in Business Awards for large businesses in Northern California.  We were the only real estate company among the nine finalists.  Our emphasis on PAIGE (Passion, Authenticity, Inclusion, Growth and Excellence) values contributes to our recognition as an ethical company and we thank our staff and agents for believing in doing the right thing. 

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group enjoyed 60 closings in October 2021 compared to 57 last October and 66 last month.  In October, we closed homes with a total value of $24 million compared to $35 million last year and $32 million last month.  The average selling price of the properties sold by BHGRE|WCG in October was $394,511.  Our average selling price, and our average listing price, have come down since we moved into the more affordable Lake County market with three new offices in August.

BHGRE|WCG currently has 109 pending sales with a value of $67 million dollars.  We are 45% ahead of the volume last year.  We have 64 active listings with a value of $61 million dollars.  Our average listing price is $953,000.  This is 6% below last year’s average. 

Congratulations to the following agents who had closings in the month of October:

Laurie Parris (4); Liz Manfree (4); Jessica Hooten (3); Parmeeta Ghoman (3); Paige Hotchkiss (3); Team Ramos (3); David Hughes (2); Rianne Pasquariello (2); Sheila Deignan (2); Rebecca Nichols (2); Linda Alioto (2); Amy Wray (2); Jessica Spencer; Jose Escalante; Kendra Martin; Liz Uribe; Sophie Phelps; Mari Giblin; Terry Bell; Quirino Aguirre; Patricia Vance; Michelle Perry; Monica Kangas; Denise Ridley; Pepe Mendoza; Ashlyn McLean; Marsha Holder; and Elizabeth Davis.

And a special congratulations to Matt Vegvary of our Napa office who closed his very first solo sale as a new agent.  Many more Matt!

North Bay Real Estate Trends for October 2021

For all of the areas covered by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, there is an inventory of 1,949 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of October.  Inventory is 20% below that of a year ago (2,440) and it is 6% below the inventory last month (2,074).  At times, the inventory has exceeded 10,000 homes in the BAREIS region.  There were 1,571 sales for the month of October.  This number is 8% below a year ago (1.707) and 3% below the pace of last month (1,621).

Prices normally peak in October and stay level through January.  National forecasts predict increasing inventory and a slowing of price appreciation in the coming months and into 2022. This seems to be happening across Wine Country and we’ll see if this is a seasonal trend (the end of summer market) or a longer term direction.  The median price for all homes closed in the BAREIS region was 10% higher than a year ago.

I have been following a data point I call the “Price Reduction Ratio” (PRR) for the past year, or so.  Across the country, on average, one might expect that 30 to 35% of the homes put into the MLS will have a price reduction before they eventually sell.  Currently, for the entire country, the ratio is 29% up from a low of 15% in April of this year.  For October 2021, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, the range was from 20% (Sonoma County) to 24% (Napa County).  The ratio was 22% in Mendocino County.  Conversely, the ratio of homes selling in excess of Original List Price (OLP) ranged from 54% (Sonoma County) to 27% (Mendocino County).  It was 44% in Napa County.  The average Price Reduction Ratio for all areas has gone a low of 14% in May of this year to 22% where it stands now.  The Over List Price has dropped from 55% in May to the current level of 42%.  These are signs of a cooling market after the heated COVID run-up of last year.

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of October stands at 615.  This is 26% below the inventory in October 2020 (833) and it is 12% below the inventory last month (696).  New sales (525) in Sonoma County in October were 8% ahead of the pace of October 2020 (488) and they were 12% below the pace last month (597).  There is a 1.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 41 (Petaluma) to 82 (Cloverdale) days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 47 days.  The median price of the 538 homes closed in October in Sonoma County was $725,000. This is 4% above the median price in October 2020 ($700,000).  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 100.5% of their original list price.  

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,900,000).  There has been a 79% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (365) from 11/1/20 to 10/31/21 compared to 204 closings in the period 11/1/19 to 10/31/20.  The inventory of luxury homes (157) is 5% ahead of the inventory in October 2020 (149 homes).  The pace of new sales (33) in October this year is 94% ahead of the pace of a year ago (17) and it is 11% below the pace last month (37).  The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 64 days this October compared to 94 days a year ago. This compares to 47 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in October.  There is a 4.8 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 1.2 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 98% of original list price.

Cloverdale:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (31) in Cloverdale at the end of October is 21% below the inventory in October 2020 (39) and it is 9% below the inventory of last month (34).  There were 13 new sales in Cloverdale in October.  This compares to 10 sales in October 2020 and 13 new sales last month.  There is a 2.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 15 homes that closed in October was 82 days.

Coastal Sonoma:  There are 8 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This compares to 5 homes in inventory in October 2020 and 5 homes last month.  There were 8 new sales in October compared to 7 a year ago and 7 last month.  There is now a 1.0 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 3 homes that closed in October was 61 days.  The coastal area market remains a very tight market.

Healdsburg Trends:  There are 81 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month.  This is 7% below the inventory in October 2020 (87) and it is 12% below the inventory last month (92).  New sales in October (33) were 74% above the pace of sales in October 2020 (19) and they were essentially equal to the sales pace last month (32).  The months of available inventory was 2.5 months at the end of October based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 32 homes that closed in October was 58 days. 

Oakmont:  There are 36 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of October.  This is 27% below the inventory in October 2020 (49) and it is 8% below the inventory of last month (39).  New sales (30) were 114% above the sales pace of a year ago (14) and 14% below the pace of last month (35).  There is a 1.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high $500,000’s up to $800,000.  The median price was $590,000 for the 29 homes that closed in October.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in October was 69 days.  

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of October (49) is 23% below the inventory in October 2020 (64) and it is essentially equal to the inventory last month (48).  There were 57 new sales for the month.  This is 14% above the sales in October 2020 (50) and it is 17% below the sales pace last month (69).  This is the twelfth month in a row where new sales have been higher than the existing inventory going into the month.  The Petaluma market currently has 0.9 months supply of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 67 homes that closed in October was $890,000.  This is 18% ahead of the median price last October ($753,000).  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in October was 40 days.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of October (17) is 51% below the inventory in October 2020 (35) and it is 19% below the inventory last month (21).  There were 38 new sales in Rohnert Park in October.  This sales pace is slightly above the 35 sales in October 2020 and it is equal to the sales last month (38).  This is the seventeenth month in a row where sales were in excess of the inventory at the beginning of the month.  In October, the month started with 21 available properties and there were 38 sales in the month.  There is a 0.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  This is the tightest market in Wine Country.  The median price ($635,000) of the 42 homes and condominiums that closed in October is 2% above the median price in October a year ago ($622,000).  Days on Market for the homes that closed in October was 37 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of October in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (42) is 9% below the level of October 2020 (46) and it is equal to the inventory last month (42).  There were 25 new sales for the month of October.  This is 31% below the pace in October 2020 (36) and it is 34% below the pace last month (38).  There is a 1.7 months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace.  The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $400,000 to $670,000 over the past year.  The median was $613,000 for the 29 homes that closed in October.  The homes that closed in the Russian River in October went from listing to pending in 44 days.

Santa Rosa:  Thirty-eight percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of October (231) is 29% below the inventory of a year ago (327) and it is 13% below the inventory last month (265).  New sales in October (233) are 35% above the pace of last October (173) and they are 8% below the pace last month (252).  There is a 1.0 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 227 homes closed in October in Santa Rosa was $665,000 compared to $655,000 a year ago.  This is a 1.5% increase.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in October was 43 days.  

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of October in Sebastopol (38) is 17% below the level of October 2020 (46) and it is slightly above the inventory last month (37).  There were 25 new sales for the month of October.  This is 39% below the pace in October 2020 (41) and it is 26% below the pace last month (34).  There is a 1.5 months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace.  The 25 homes that closed in Sebastopol in October went from listing to pending in 46 days.

Sonoma Valley:  The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (80) at the end of October in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 27% below the inventory last October (109) and it is 23% below the inventory of last month (104).  Sixty-nine percent of the available properties in the Sonoma Valley (55) are priced at $1,000,000, or more. There were 43 new sales for the month. This is 32% below the 63 sales in October 2020 and it is 26% below the 58 sales last month.  There is a 1.9 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  The average Days on Market for the 44 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in October is 50 days.  The closings in the month had a selling price equal to 97% of the original listing price.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of October starts at $4,000,000.  Twenty-seven homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 13 in the twelve months prior to that.  In October, there were three new sales in this quartile.  There are 20 homes available in this quartile in October 2021 compared to 13 a year ago and 23 last month. Based on the current sales pace, the months of inventory is 6.7 months.  The average days on market for the three homes that closed in October in this quartile was 20 days.

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of October is 28 properties.  This is 33% below the inventory in October 2020 (42) and it is 10% below the 31 homes last month.  There were 32 new sales for the month.  This is 10% above the pace of sales in October 2020 (29) and it is 25% below the pace of last month (43).  There is a 0.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The days on market for the 39 homes that closed in October 2020 in Windsor was 68 days.  The median price ($755,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in October is 14% above the median price a year ago ($664,000).

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of October was 52 homes.  This is 43% below the number of mobile homes available in October 2020 (91) and it is 20% below the number of available mobile homes last month (65).  There were 35 new mobile home sales in October.  This is 17% below the pace of sales in October 2020 (42) and it is 13% below the pace of sales last month (40).  There is a 1.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 28 mobile homes closed in October was 68 days and the median price was $173,000.  This median price is 27% above the median price of $136,000 in October 2020.  

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of October is 320 properties. The current inventory is 13% below the number of lots in October 2020 (366) and it is 5% below the number of available lots last month (337). There were 35 new lot sales in October.  This is 27% below the pace of sales in October 2020 (48) and it is 8% below the pace of lot sales last month (38).  There is a 9.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 32 lots closed in October was 82 days and the median price was $336,000.   

Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of October (239) is 22% below the inventory in October 2020 (305) and it is 11% below the inventory last month (269).  Sixty-eight percent of the inventory in Napa County (163 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above.   New sales (136) are 8% above the pace of last year (125) and are 13% above the 120 sales last month.  There is a 1.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 55 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 118 homes closed in October in Napa County ($810,000) is 13% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($715,000).  Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 95% of original list price.

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $3,750,000 in Napa County at this time.  There has been an increase of 50% for the number of closings (63) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $3,750,000) in Napa County for the period 11/1/20 to 10/31/21 compared to 42 closings in the period 11/1/19 to 10/31/20.  There are 63 luxury homes in inventory at the end of October 2021 compared to 69 homes in inventory at the end of October 2020 and 70 last month. There were 9 new Luxury Home sales in October compared to 5 last year and 3 last month.  This results in a 4.8 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to a 1.8 months supply for the County as a whole.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 89% of original list price.

American Canyon:  There are 14 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of October in American Canyon. This is 40% above the inventory a year ago (10) and it is equal to the supply last month (14).  There were 12 new sales in the month.  This is 14% below the pace of last year (14) and it is slightly above the 11 sales last month.  There is a 1.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for 12 homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 30 days. The median price of the homes that closed in American Canyon in October ($563,000) was 7% below the median price of a year ago ($610,000).  Last month the median price of the sold homes was $775,000.  The average price per square foot of the homes sold in American Canyon was at $406 last month, This is above the $275 to $350 range where the sales have been over the past several years.

Napa:  Forty-nine percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 118 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of October in the City of Napa. This is 33% below the supply at the end of October 2020 (175) and it is 11% below the inventory at the end of last month (132).  New sales (97) were 16% ahead of the pace of October 2020 (84) and they were 21% ahead of the pace of last month (80). There is a 1.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 82 closings last month was 40 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in October was $815,000. This is 17% higher than the median price of the homes closed in October 2020 ($699,000).

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of October (92) is 14% below the level of 107 in October 2020 and it is 13% below the inventory last month (106).  There were 22 new sales this month compared to 20 a year ago and 25 last month.  There is now a 4.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 20 closings last month was 130 days.  Approximately 59% of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $3,750,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (37 homes). There were 2 luxury home (price in excess of $3,750,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month and there were 8 new luxury home sales.  This makes for a 4.2 month supply of inventory based upon the current sales pace.

In Angwin in October, inventory was 11 homes compared to 10 a year ago and 12 last month.  There were 2 new sales in Angwin for the month compared to 2 a year ago and 6 last month.  The median price of the active listings in Angwin as of October 2021 is $1,685,000.

Mobile Homes in Napa County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of October is 34 homes.  This is 21% above the number of mobile homes available in October 2020 (28) and it is 17% above the 29 available homes last month. There were 13 new mobile home sales in October.  This is 32% below the pace of sales in October 2020 (19) and it is 18% above the pace of sales last month (11).  There is a 2.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The average days on market of the 10 mobile homes closed in October was 82 days and the median price was $168,000.  This compares to a median price of $109,000 in October 2020 and $200,000 last month.  The median price of sold mobile homes in Napa seems to vary quite a bit from month to month.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of October rose for the ninth straight month last month and stands at 194.  This is 29% above the inventory in October 2020 (150) and it is 7% above the inventory last month (182).  New sales (58) in Mendocino County in October were 23% below the pace of October 2020 (75) and they were 3% below the pace last month (60).  There now is a 3.3 months supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 60 homes sold in Mendocino County in October is 60 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the homes closed in October in Mendocino County was $508,000. This is 5% below the median price in October 2020 ($535,000).  

Ukiah:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of October in Ukiah is 44 homes.  This is 29% ahead of the level of October 2020 (34) and it is 10% above the inventory last month (40).  It is the highest level of inventory in Ukiah since May of 2020.  There were 22 new sales for the month of October.  This is 57% above the number of sales in October 2020 (14) and it is 22% aboe the sales last month (18).  There is 2 months of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 20 closings last month is 66 days.  The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from $370,000 to $519,000. The median price was $488,000 for the homes that closed in October.

Hopland and Talmage:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of October in Hopland and Talmage is 7 homes.  This compares to 10 homes in inventory at the end of October 2020 and 5 homes in inventory last month.  There were two new sales for the month of October.  This compares to two sales in October 2020 and one new sale last month.  There were no closings in the Talmage-Hopland market last month.

Redwood Valley and Calpella:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of October in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 17 homes.  This is 55% above the level of October 2020 (11) and it is 15% below the inventory last month (20).  There were 6 new sales for the month of October.  This compares to 5 sales in October 2020 and 4 new sales last month.  There is a 2.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $725,000.  There were 6 closings in Redwood Valley/Calpella in October at a median price of $595,000 and the homes sold in 73 days. 

Lake County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Lake County at the end of October stands at 464.  This is 44% above the inventory in October 2020 (322) and it is essentially equal to the inventory last month (463). Closed sales (107) in Lake County in October were 7% above the pace of October 2020 (100) and they were 15% above the pace last month (93).  There now is a 4.7 months supply of inventory in Lake County based on the existing sales pace.  The median Days on Market for the homes sold in Lake County in October is 26 days.  Usually “Days on Market” are traced from listing date to pending date, so the closing date would be somewhat longer.  The median price of the homes closed in October in Lake County was $339,000. This is 7% ahead of the median price in October 2020 ($316,500).  The homes sold in Lake County last month sold at 96.3% of original list price.

Marin County:  Marin is often considered a “feeder” county to Wine Country.  Marin County’s inventory (271 homes) is 40% below the 448 homes in October 2020 and it is 10% below the 302 homes in inventory last month.  New sales (256) were 28% below the number last October (355) and were 16% below the pace of last month (304).  This creates a 1.1 months supply.  The median price of the 293 homes sold in Marin County in October was $1,450,000.  This is 9% ahead of the median price a year ago ($1,325,000).