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Wine Country Real Estate Trends in December 2021
Wine Country Real Estate Trends in December 2021
Wine Country Market Value Shifts and Sales Trends for 2021
I’ve done a chart of Wine Country Market Value Shifts dating back to 1998. I’ve added the latest data for 2021 so if you’d like a copy, drop me an email. According to the Bay Area Real Estate Services MLS figures, the average price of residential real estate sales across Wine Country (Sonoma, Napa and Mendocino Counties) increased by 12% in 2021. This compares to an increase of 16% in 2020. The average price of all closings in Sonoma County was $921,313 (up 11.5% from one year ago), the average in Napa County was $1,242,179 (up 12% from a year ago) and the average in Mendocino County was $688,225 (up 19% from one year ago). I’m expecting prices to moderate their increase in 2022 and average, perhaps, below 10% for the year. It will vary from market to market and in different price ranges.
There were 8,754 closings of single-family homes and condominiums across Wine Country in 2021 compared to 7,386 closings in 2020. This is a 18.5% increase in closings. There was a 23% increase in Sonoma County (6,516 in 2021 compared to 5,281 in 2020) while Napa Country was up 10% year over year at 1,535 units compared to 1,400 units in 2020 and Mendocino County was down 0.3% in closing volume – 703 sales compared to 705 in 2020. I expect the 2022 volume will again be steady or slightly down from the volume in 2021 due to our record low inventory at the start of this year. The total sales dollar volume was over $8.4 billion dollars – $6.0 billion in Sonoma County, $1.9 billion in Napa County and $484 million in Mendocino County. This compares to $6.3 billion dollars last year.
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for December 2021 and for the entire year 2021
We are proud that our brokerage was nominated as one of three finalists in the 2021 Rotary Ethics in Business Awards for large businesses in Northern California. We were the only real estate company among the nine finalists. Our emphasis on PAIGE (Passion, Authenticity, Inclusion, Growth and Excellence) values contributes to our recognition as an ethical company and we thank our staff and agents for believing in doing the right thing.
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group enjoyed 77 closings in December 2021 compared to 48 last December and 53 last month. In December, we closed homes with a total value of $31 million compared to $30 million last year and $32 million last month. The average selling price of the properties sold by BHGRE|WCG in December was $407,453.
BHGRE|WCG currently has 112 pending sales with a value of $57 million dollars. We are 96% ahead of our unit volume last year. We have 173 active listings with a value of $82 million dollars. We are 170% ahead of last year in our listing unit volume. Our average listing price is $474,000.
For the entire year of 2021, Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Wine Country Group closed 681 transactions (up 19% from 2020) with dollar volume of $405 million (up 16% from 2020).
Congratulations to the following agents who had closings in the month of December:
Team Ramos (7); Parmeeta Ghoman (5); Jessica Spencer (5); Heather Thurber (4); Jessica Hooten (2); Jose Escalante (2); Robert Davis (2); David Lucido (2); Denise Ridley (2); Mari Giblin (2); Monica Kangas (2); Chris Brown; Patricia Vance; Amanda Rivano; Juliet Casazza; Paige Hotchkiss (2); Mara Kahn (2); Zebi Bojarsky (2); Rob Ross; Joe Hebel; Ryan Gourd; Amy Wray; Maria Flores; Cheryl Marinaro; Erick Rothfeld; Sheila Deignan; Julie Etchell; Herb Heil; Pam Atchinson; Ray Hellgren; Liz Manfree; Linda Alioto; Carina DeHerrera; Mary Jensen; Laurie Parris; Chelsie Runnings; Michelle Perry; Pepe Mendoza; Christine Kettwig and Elizabeth Davis.
And, congratulations to the following Top Producers for the 4th Quarter of 2021:
Clearlake: Top Units and $: Jessica Spencer
Top Listings: David Hughes
Lakeport Top Units: David Lucido
Top $: Paige Hotchkiss
Top Listings: David Lucido and Paige Hotchkiss
Petaluma: Top Units, $ and Listings: Parmeeta Ghoman
Santa Rosa: Top Units and $: Heather Thurber
Top Listings: Mari Giblin
Sebastopol: Top Units and $: Laurie Parris
Sonoma: Top Units and Listings: Sheila Deignan
Top $: Michael Crain
St. Helena: Top Units: Liz Manfree
Top $: Linda Alioto
Top Listings: Rianne Pasquariello
Ukiah: Top Units, $ and Listings: Team Ramos
Forecast for National Real Estate in 2022: Predictions that I recently heard are record low inventory and super high demand. The national residential real estate price appreciation is forecast at 5.7% – varying from market to market. Mortgage interest rates are forecast to move up less than 1% over the year and inflation is forecast to be 4%. An “ideal” inflation rate is said by most economists to be in the 2% range.
North Bay Real Estate Trends for December 2021
For all of the areas covered by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, there is an inventory of 1,046 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of December. Inventory is 35% below that of a year ago (1,612) and it is 29% below the inventory last month (1,479). At times, the inventory has exceeded 10,000 homes in the BAREIS region. Like most parts of the entire country, and in Wine Country, inventories are at record low levels. There were 940 sales for the month of December. This number is 15% below a year ago (1,110) and 30% below the pace of last month (1,346).
Prices normally peak in November and stay level through the early part of the year. National forecasts predict slowly increasing inventory and a slowing of price appreciation in the coming months. The median price for all homes closed in the BAREIS region was 6% higher than a year ago.
I have been following a data point I call the “Price Reduction Ratio” (PRR) for the past year, or so. Across the country, on average, one might expect that 30 to 35% of the homes put into the MLS will have a price reduction before they eventually sell. Currently, for the entire country, the ratio is 24.5% up from a low of 15% in April of this year. For December 2021, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, the range was from 22% (Sonoma County) to 36% (Mendocino County). Conversely, the ratio of homes selling in excess of Original List Price (OLP) ranged from 23% (Mendocino County) to 41% (Sonoma County). It was 39% in Napa County. The average Price Reduction Ratio for all areas has gone from a low of 14% in May of this year to 28% where it stands now. The Over List Price has dropped from 55% in May to the current level of 34%. These are signs of a cooling market after the heated market of last summer.
Sonoma County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of December stands at 267. This is 53% below the inventory in December 2020 (573) and it is 37% below the inventory last month (421). New sales (290) in Sonoma County in December were 22% below the pace of December 2020 (373) and they were 32% below the pace last month (429). There is a 0.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 33 (Coastal Sonoma) to 107 (Healdsburg) days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 56 days. The median price of the 427 homes closed in December in Sonoma County was $756,000. This is 11% above the median price in December 2020 ($681,000). Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 99% of their original list price.
Sonoma County Luxury Homes: About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $2,400,000). There has been a 78% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (229) from 1/1/21 to 12/31/21 compared to 134 closings in the period 1/1/20 to 12/31/20. The inventory of luxury homes (55) is 13% below the inventory in December 2020 (75 homes). The pace of new sales (13) in December this year is 86% ahead of the pace of a year ago (7) and it is 32% below the pace last month (19). The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 111 days this December compared to 87 days a year ago. This compares to 56 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in December. There is a 5 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 0.9 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market. Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 95% of original list price.
Cloverdale: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (13) in Cloverdale at the end of December is 48% below the inventory in December 2020 (25) and it is 50% below the inventory of last month (26). There were 10 new sales in Cloverdale in December. This compares to 16 sales in December 2020 and 10 new sales last month. There is a 1.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 12 homes that closed in December was 62 days.
Coastal Sonoma: There are 7 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point). This compares to 5 homes in inventory in December 2020 and 5 homes last month. There were 2 new sales in December compared to 9 a year ago and 3 last month. There is now a 3.5 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 4 homes that closed in December was 33 days. The coastal area market remains a very tight market.
Healdsburg Trends: There are 36 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month. This is 33% below the inventory in December 2020 (54) and it is 37% below the inventory last month (57). New sales in December (18) were 39% above the pace of sales in December 2020 (13) and they were 18% below the sales pace last month (22). The months of available inventory was 2 months at the end of December based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 27 homes that closed in December was 107 days.
Oakmont: There are 10 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of December. This is 76% below the inventory in December 2020 (42) and it is 44% below the inventory of last month (18). New sales (16) were 60% above the sales pace of a year ago (10) and 48% below the pace of last month (31). There is a 0.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high $500,000’s up to $800,000. The median price was $650,000 for the 28 homes that closed in December. The Days on Market for the homes that closed in December was 59 days.
Petaluma: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of December (18) is 51% below the inventory in December 2020 (37) and it is 33% below the inventory last month (27). There were 23 new sales for the month. This is 29% below the sales in December 2020 (38) and it is 56% below the sales pace last month (52). The streak in Petaluma where new sales have been higher than the existing inventory going into the month ended this month at thirteen months. The Petaluma market currently has 0.8 months supply of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 54 homes that closed in December was $833,000. This is 6% ahead of the median price last December ($795,000). The Days on Market for the homes that closed in December was 37 days.
Rohnert Park: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of December (4) is 71% below the inventory in December 2020 (14) and it is 43% below the inventory last month (7). There were 20 new sales in Rohnert Park in December. This sales pace is 36% below the 31 sales in December 2020 and it is 29% below the sales last month (28). This is the nineteenth month in a row where sales were in excess of the inventory at the beginning of the month. In December, the month started with 7 available properties and there were 20 sales in the month. There is a 0.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. This is the tightest market in Wine Country. The median price ($665,000) of the 23 homes and condominiums that closed in December is 11% above the median price in December a year ago ($600,000). Days on Market for the homes that closed in December was 41 days.
Russian River: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of December in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (21) is 9% below the level of December 2020 (23) and it is 19% below the inventory last month (26). There were 12 new sales for the month of December. This is 50% below the pace in December 2020 (24) and it is 56% below the pace last month (27). There is a 1.8 months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace. The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $400,000 to $670,000 over the past year. The median was $605,000 for the 23 homes that closed in December. The homes that closed in the Russian River in December went from listing to pending in 76 days.
Santa Rosa: Thirty-six percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa. The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of December (97) is 64% below the inventory of a year ago (267) and it is 43% below the inventory last month (169). New sales in December (139) are 11% below the pace of last December (156) and they are 25% below the pace last month (184). There is a 0.7 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 182 homes closed in December in Santa Rosa was $678,000 compared to $651,000 a year ago. This is a 4% increase. The Days on Market for the homes that closed in December was 51 days.
Sebastopol Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of December in Sebastopol (16) is 45% below the level of December 2020 (29) and it is 33% below the inventory last month (24). There were 16 new sales for the month of December. This is 24% below the pace in December 2020 (21) and it is also 24% below the pace last month (21). There is a one months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace. The 22 homes that closed in Sebastopol in December went from listing to pending in 74 days.
Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (37) at the end of December in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 51% below the inventory last December (75) and it is 35% below the inventory of last month (57). Sixty-five percent of the available properties in the Sonoma Valley (24) are priced at $1,000,000, or more. There were 26 new sales for the month. This is 19% below the 32 sales in December 2020 and it is 26% below the 35 sales last month. There is a 1.4 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales. The average Days on Market for the 34 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in December is 77 days. The closings in the month had a selling price equal to 93% of the original listing price – a drop from the 97% to 100% being experienced over the past several months.
The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of December starts at $3,750,000. Thirty-two homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 18 in the twelve months prior to that. In December, there were two new sales in this quartile. There are 10 homes available in this quartile in December 2021 compared to 10 a year ago and 16 last month. Based on the current sales pace, the months of inventory is 5 months. The average days on market for the five homes that closed in December in this quartile was 121 days.
Windsor: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of December fell to just 8 properties. This is 66% below the inventory in December 2020 (23) and it is 33% below the 12 homes last month. There were 14 new sales for the month. This is 33% below the pace of sales in December 2020 (21) and it is 53% below the pace of last month (30). There is a 0.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The days on market for the 31 homes that closed in December 2020 in Windsor was 51 days. The median price ($739,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in December is 11% above the median price a year ago ($665,000).
Mobile Homes in Sonoma County: The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of December was 29 homes. This is 59% below the number of mobile homes available in December 2020 (71) and it is 26% below the number of available mobile homes last month (39). There were 30 new mobile home sales in December. This is 11% above the pace of sales in December 2020 (27) and it is also slightly above the pace of sales last month (28). There is a one months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The average days on market of the 23 mobile homes closed in December was 78 days and the median price was $152,000. This median price is 5% below the median price of $160,000 in December 2020.
Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County: The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of December is 256 properties. The current inventory is 20% below the number of lots in December 2020 (318) and it is 17% below the number of available lots last month (308). There were 23 new lot sales in December. This is 41% below the pace of sales in December 2020 (39) and it is 28% above the pace of lot sales last month (32). There is a 10 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The average days on market of the 26 lots closed in December was 138 days and the median price was $295,000.
Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of December (141) is 33% below the inventory in December 2020 (211) and it is 22% below the inventory last month (180). Seventy percent of the inventory in Napa County (99 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above. New sales (70) are 18% below the pace of last year (85) and are 33% below the 104 sales last month. There is a 2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 72 days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The median price of the 125 homes closed in December in Napa County ($980,000) is 18% above the median price of a year ago ($830,000). It’s also the highest median price we’ve ever had for any month. Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 95% of original list price.
Napa County Luxury Homes: If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $4,000,000 in Napa County at this time. This is the highest median price for this quartile that we have ever recorded. There has been an increase of 24% for the number of closings (57) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $4,000,000) in Napa County for the period 1/1/21 to 12/31/21 compared to 46 closings in the period 1/1/20 to 12/31/20. There are 35 luxury homes in inventory at the end of December 2021 compared to 46 homes in inventory at the end of December 2020 and 47 last month. There were 2 new Luxury Home sales in December compared to 3 last year and 3 last month. This results in a 20 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to a 2 months supply for the County as a whole. Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 88.5% of original list price.
American Canyon: There are just 4 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of December in American Canyon. This is equal to the just below inventory a year ago (3) and it is 33% below the supply last month (6). There were 7 new sales in the month. This is 30% below the pace of last year (10) and it is 46% below the 13 sales last month. There is a 0.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for 13 homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 44 days. The median price of the homes that closed in American Canyon in December ($550,000) was 20% below the median price of a year ago ($685,000). The median sold price has been in excess of $750,000 in several months in the past year. The average price per square foot of the homes sold in American Canyon was at $410 last month. This is somewhat ahead of the $275 to $350 range where the sales have been over the past several years.
Napa: Forty-three percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa. There are 61 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of December in the City of Napa. This is 45% below the supply at the end of December 2020 (111) and it is 27% below the inventory at the end of last month (84). New sales (45) were 18% below the pace of December 2020 (55) and they were 38% below the pace of last month (72). There is a 1.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 78 closings last month was 57 days. The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in December was a record high $1,030,000. This is 22% higher than the median price of the homes closed in December 2020 ($844,000).
Up Valley Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of December (62) is 25% below the level of 83 in December 2020 and it is 18% below the inventory last month (76). There were 15 new sales this month compared to 13 a year ago and 16 last month. There is now a 4.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 28 closings last month was 120 days. Approximately 49% of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $4,000,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (17 homes). There were four luxury home (price in excess of $4,000,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month and there were no new luxury home sales.
In Angwin in December, inventory was 6 homes compared to 10 a year ago and 8 last month. There were 3 new sales in Angwin for the month compared to one a year ago and 2 last month. The median price of the active listings in Angwin as of December 2021 is a whooping $4,247,000.
Mobile Homes in Napa County: The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of December is 28 homes. This is 33% above the number of mobile homes available in December 2020 (21) and it is 13% below the 32 available homes last month. There were 11 new mobile home sales in December. This is 175% above the pace of sales in December 2020 (4) and it is 8% below the pace of sales last month (12). There is a 2.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The average days on market of the 8 mobile homes closed in December was 61 days and the median price was $283,000. This compares to a median price of $163,000 in December 2020 and $260,000 last month. The median price of sold mobile homes in Napa seems to vary quite a bit from month to month.
Mendocino County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of December stands at 160. This is 37% above the inventory in December 2020 (117) and it is 15% below the inventory last month (188). New sales (63) in Mendocino County in December were 29% above the pace of December 2020 (49) and they were 19% above the pace last month (53). There now is a 2.5 months supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace. The average Days on Market for the 61 homes sold in Mendocino County in December is 67 days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The median price of the homes closed in December in Mendocino County was $565,000. This is 5% above the median price in December 2020 ($540,000).
Ukiah: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of December in Ukiah is 31 homes. This is 24% ahead of the level of December 2020 (25) and it is 26% below the inventory last month (42). There were 31 new sales for the month of December. This is 82% above the number of sales in December 2020 (17) and it is 15% above the sales last month (27). It’s the highest number of sales in Ukiah for any month in the past few years. There is one months of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 25 closings last month is 66 days. The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from $370,000 to $519,000. The median price was $525,000 for the homes that closed in December.
Hopland and Talmage: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of December in Hopland and Talmage is 7 homes. This compares to 15 homes in inventory at the end of December 2020 and 8 homes in inventory last month. There were two new sales for the month of December. This compares to no sales in December 2020 and one new sale last month. There was one closing in the Talmage-Hopland market last month.
Redwood Valley and Calpella: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of December in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 10 homes. This is 67% above the level of December 2020 (6) and it is equal to the inventory last month (10). There were 4 new sales for the month of December. This compares to 2 sales in December 2020 and 9 new sales last month. There is a 2.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $725,000. There were 4 closings in Redwood Valley/Calpella in December at a median price of $655,000 and the homes sold in 40 days.
Lake County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Lake County at the end of December stands at 372. This is 20% below the inventory in December 2020 (301) and it is 10% below the inventory last month (412). Closed sales (99) in Lake County in December were 68% ahead of the pace of December 2020 (59) and they were 6% ahead of the pace last month (93). There now is a 3.8 months supply of inventory in Lake County based on the existing sales pace. The median Days on Market for the homes sold in Lake County in December is 30 days. Usually “Days on Market” are traced from listing date to pending date, so the closing date would be somewhat longer. The median price of the homes closed in December in Lake County was $335,000. This is 35% ahead of the median price in December 2020 ($249,000). The homes sold in Lake County last month sold at 97% of original list price.
Marin County: Marin is often considered a “feeder” county to Wine Country. Marin County’s inventory (91 homes) is 80% below the 233 homes in December 2020 and it is 46% below the 171 homes in inventory last month. New sales (116) were 33% below the number last December (173) and were 45% below the pace of last month (213). This creates a 0.8 months supply. The median price of the 182 homes sold in Marin County in December was $1,350,000. This is 6% ahead of the median price a year ago ($1,273,000).