Wine Country and North Bay Real Estate Trends 

National Trends

Housing sentiment reaches 6-month high: The Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) released by Fannie Mae continued to rise for the second straight month in May and reached the highest level in six months. The increase of 4.3 points from the prior month pushed the index to 73.5 and the level reached last month was higher than the year-ago level by 4.1 points. Consumers who believed now is a good time to buy climbed to 26% from 23% in the prior month and reached the highest level since February 2022. Those who believed now is a good time to sell also bounced back month-over-month with an increase of three points to 61% but remained the second lowest in the past 16 months. The jump in HPSI in May was due partly to the recent improvement in interest rates, as the share of respondents who said that mortgage rates will decline in the next 12 months increased to 29, the highest level in three months. Fewer of them also expected their personal financial situation to get worse over the next 12 months, as the share who believed that will be the case dropped to 24% from 31% in the prior month.

There continues to be downward pressure on home prices and some are now expecting the national median price of homes to be -1% for 2025.

North Bay Real Estate Trends for May 2025

For all the areas covered by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, there is an inventory of 4,126 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of May.  Inventory is up 39% from a year ago (2,972) and it is 12% above the inventory last month (3,674).  There were 1,504 new sales for the month of May.  This number is 23% above a year ago (1,227) and it is 30% ahead of the pace of last month (1,154).  The median price of homes sold across our North Bay region in May was $765,000 which is equal to the $765,000 median price last May.  

I’ve heard the question: “Is inventory at an all time high?”  Inventory is the highest it’s been in the past several years.  June and July are the months when inventory reaches its seasonal peak each year.  In July of 2019 (pre-pandemic), inventory was 14% higher than the current level for the North Bay (4,800 v. 4,126 homes).   In July 2010, inventory reached it’s all time high at over 8,500 homes available.

The “Price Reduction Ratio” (PRR) is considered a leading indicator of future prices for sales and closings.  Across the country in May, approximately 32% of the homes have a price reduction prior to their selling date.  The higher the ratio, the more likely price appreciation will be less in the coming months.  In normal years, this ratio is in the 30% to 35% range with the lower part of the range being in the Spring months.  For May 2025, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, our ratio was 29% which is a bit lower than the national figure.  This compares to 29% last month and 29% a year ago.  The numbers were 26% for Sonoma County, 23% for Napa County and 39% for Mendocino County.  Conversely, the ratio of homes selling for more than the original asking price was 21% across the region.  This compares to 27% last month and 32% a year ago.  The numbers were 25% in Sonoma County, 24% in Napa County and 13% in Mendocino County.  Twenty-nine percent of the homes in the region had a price reduction prior to going into contract while 65% had a lower selling price than the original list price upon closing.  So, as is usual, most homes take a price reduction in the offer/sale/closing process. 

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of May stands at 1,317 homes.  This is 44% above the inventory in May 2024 (917) and it is 14% above the inventory last month (1,160).  Forty-nine percent of the available homes for sale in Sonoma County (643) are currently priced at $1,000,000 or more.  New sales (516) in Sonoma County in May were 23% above the pace of May 2024 (419) and they were 40% above the pace last month (370).  There is a 2.6-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The time it takes to sell a home in Sonoma County is 55 days.  For our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 343 homes closed in May in Sonoma County was $830,000. This is 2% above the median price in May 2024 ($810,000).  The annualized average price ($985,884) of all homes sold in the County also decreased 3% in the past twelve months.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 96% of their original list price.  In May, 25% of the homes in Sonoma County sold at a price more than the original asking price and 26% of the homes had a price reduction before they sold.  Fifty-nine percent of the homes closed last month had a lower selling price than the original list price.

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price more than $1,950,000).  There has been a slight increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (243) from 6/1/24 to 5/31/25 compared to 240 closings in the period 6/1/23 to 5/31/24.  The inventory of luxury homes (333) is 26% above the inventory in May 2024 (265 homes) and it is 12% above the inventory last month (297).  The pace of new sales (56) in May is 107% ahead of last year’s pace (27) and it is 124% ahead of the sales pace last month (25).  The Days on Market for 29 Luxury Home closings was 92 days this May.  The Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in May was 55 days.  There is a 5.9-month supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 2.6-month supply in the overall Sonoma County market.  Sonoma County Luxury Homes sold at roughly 90% of original list price in May. 

Oakmont:  There are 40 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of May.  This is 54% above the inventory in May 2024 (26) and it is slightly below the inventory of last month (41).  New sales (19) were just below the sales pace of a year ago (20) and they were 11% above the pace of last month (17).  There is a 2.1-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the low $600,000’s up to $850,000.  The median price was $705,000 for the 10 homes that closed in May.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in May is 48 days.  

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of May (101) is 19% above the inventory in May 2024 (85) and it is 10% above the inventory last month (92).  There were 65 new sales for the month.  This is 86% above the sales in May 2024 (35) and it is 33% above the sales pace last month (49).  The Petaluma market currently has 1.5 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 49 homes that closed in May was $930,000.  This is 5% above the median price last May ($925,000).  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in May is 47 days.  The sales price to original list price in May was 91%.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of May (79) is 61% above the inventory in May 2024 (49) and it is 10% above the inventory last month (72).  There were 43 new sales in Rohnert Park in May.  This sales pace is 13% above the 38 sales in May 2024 and it is 5% above the sales last month (41).  There is a 1.8-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price ($700,000) of the 32 homes and condominiums that closed in May is 6% below the median price in May a year ago ($746,000).  Days on Market for the homes that closed in May is 47 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of May in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (112) is 35% above the level of May 2024 (83) and it is 37% above the inventory last month (82).  There were 31 new sales for the month of May.  This is 15% above the pace in May 2024 (27) and it is 109% above the pace last month (15).  There is a 3.6-month supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace.  The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $500,000 to $640,000 over the past year.  The median was $606,000 for the 16 homes that closed in May.  The homes that closed in the Russian River in May went from listing to pending in 70 days.

Santa Rosa:  Thirty-two percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of May (419) is 39% above the inventory of a year ago (301) and it is 11% above the inventory last month (379).  New sales in May (201) are 16% above the pace of last May (173) and they are 20% above the 168 sales last month.  There is 2.1-month supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 132 homes closed in May in Santa Rosa was $754,000 which is slightly below the $758,000 price a year ago.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in May is 54 days.  The sales price to original list price in May was 96%.

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of May in Sebastopol is 72 homes.  This is 47% above the inventory last May (49) and it is 6% above the inventory last month (68).  There were 36 new sales for the month of May compared to 29 a year ago and 22 last month.  There is a 2-month supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace.  The 26 homes that closed in Sebastopol in May went from listing to pending in 30 days. 

Sonoma Valley:  The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (227) at the end of May in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 54% above the inventory last May (147) and it is 9% above the inventory of last month (209).  There were 55 new sales for the month. This is 49% above the 37 sales in May 2024 and it is 72% above the 32 sales last month.  There is a 4.1-month supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  The average Days on Market for the 42 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in May is 80 days.  The closings in the month had a selling price equal to 93% of the original listing price.  The annualized average price ($1,434,377) of all homes sold in the Sonoma Valley decreased 11% in the past twelve months.  In May, 19% of the homes in the Sonoma Valley sold at a price more than the original list price and 31% had a reduction in price before they sold.  Seventy-six percent of the homes in the Valley had a lower selling price than the original list price.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of May starts at $3,000,000.  Thirty-two homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 42 in the twelve months prior to that.  In May, there were 3 closings and 5 new sales in this quartile comparing to 10 closings and 6 new sales a year ago and 0 closings and 2 new sales last month. There are 57 homes available in this quartile in May 2025 compared to 46 a year ago and 46 last month.  

The same question raised above (“is inventory at an all time high?”)  was asked about the Sonoma Valley market.  In July of 2019 (pre-pandemic), inventory was slightly higher than the current level (228 homes v. 227 today).  In July 2011, inventory reached it’s all time high for the Sonoma Valley at over 325 homes available.

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of May is 53 properties.  This is 130% above the inventory in May 2024 (23) and it is 18% above the 45 homes in inventory last month.  There were 30 sales in the month.  This is 25% above the pace of sales in May 2024 (24) and it is 100% above the pace of last month (15).  There is a 1.8-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The days on market for the 11 homes that closed in May 2025 in Windsor is 35 days.  The median price ($807,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in May compares to a median price of ($840,000) a year ago, a decrease of 4%. 

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of May is 88 homes.  This is 26% above the 70 mobile homes available in May 2024 and it is slightly below the number of available mobile homes last month (90).  There were 42 new mobile home sales in May.  This is 20% above the pace of sales in May 2024 (35) and it is 17% above the pace of sales last month (36).  There is a 2.1-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 31 mobile homes closed in May is 77 days and the median price was $185,000 compared to $160,000 a year ago and $233,000 last month.

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of May is 357 properties. The current inventory is 8% above the number of lots in May 2024 (330) and it is 9% above the number of available lots last month (328). There were 34 new lot sales in May.  This is 42% above the pace of sales in May 2024 (24) and it is 127% above the pace of lot sales last month (15).  There is a 11-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 15 lots closed in May is 145 days and the median price is $425,000 compared to $388,000 a year ago and $296,000 last month.   

Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of May (599) is 72% above the inventory in May 2024 (348) and it is 12% above the inventory last month (533).  New sales (84) are slightly below the pace of last year (86) and are slightly above the sales last month (83).  There is 7.1-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the homes closing in Napa County is currently 48 days.  In our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 84 homes closed in May in Napa County ($923,000) is 3% below the median price of a year ago ($950,000).  The annualized average price ($1,284,960) of all homes sold in the County increased 4% in the past twelve months.  Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 93% of original list price.  In May, 24% of the homes in Napa County sold at a price that was more than the original asking price and 23% of sold homes had a price reduction prior to sale.  Fifty-nine percent of the homes sold at a price that was less than the original asking price.  

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market currently begins at $2,850,000 in Napa County.  There has been a slight decrease in the number of closings (56) of Luxury Homes (sales price more than $2,850,000) in Napa County for the period 6/1/24 to 5/31/25 compared to 58 closings in the period 6/1/23 to 5/31/24.  There are 153 luxury homes in inventory at the end of May 2025 compared to 113 homes in inventory at the end of May 2024 and 136 last month. There were 11 new Luxury Home sales in May compared to 6 last year and 6 last month.  This creates a 14-month supply of inventory.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 86% of original asking price and the 5 homes that closed last month were on the market 68 days.

Napa:  Fifty-nine percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 352 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of May in the City of Napa. This is 73% above the supply at the end of May 2024 (204) and it is 14% above the inventory at the end of last month (308).  New sales (82) are 55% above the pace of May 2024 (53) and they are 21% above the pace of last month (68).  There is a 4.3-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 67 closings last month is 43 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in May was $905,000.  It is 5% below the median price of the homes closed in May 2024 ($953,000).  

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of May (191) is 52% above the level of 125 in May 2024 and it is 12% above the inventory last month (170).  There were 12 new sales this month compared to 18 a year ago and 12 last month.  There is now a 16-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 10 closings last month is 60 days.  Over the past four months, Up Valley homes are selling at roughly 85% of original list price.  Fifty-two percent of the Luxury Market inventory (price more than $2,850,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (80 homes). There was one Luxury Home (price more than $2,850,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month and there was one new Luxury Home sale.

Angwin:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Angwin at the end of May (27) compares to 15 in May 2024 and 27 last month.  There were 4 new sales this month compared to 1 a year ago and 0 last month.  The average asking price for the 27 homes on the market in Angwin is $2,037,000.

Mobile Homes in Napa County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of May is 45 homes.  This is 22% above the number of mobile homes available in May 2024 (37) and it is 8% below the 49 available homes last month.  There were 17 new mobile home sales in May.  This compares to 12 home sales last May and 10 sales last month.  There is a 2.6-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 12 mobile homes closed in May was 101 days and the median price was $143,000.  This compares to a median price of $210,000 in May 2024 and $218,000 last month.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of May stands at 402.  This is the highest inventory that we have seen in Mendocino County for over two years.  This is 38% above the inventory in May 2024 (291) and it is 11% above the inventory last month (361).  New sales (74) in Mendocino County in May are 19% above the pace of May 2024 (62) and they are 42% above the pace last month (52).  There now is a 5.4-month supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 63 homes sold in Mendocino County in May is 75 days.  For our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of sold homes in Mendocino has been between $400,000 and $600,000 over the past year.  The median price of the homes closed in May in was $524,000.  The annualized average price ($602,842) of all homes sold in the County is 3% above the average price a year ago.  Over the past four months, Mendocino County homes are selling at roughly 92% of original asking price.  In May, 13% of the homes in Mendocino County sold at a price greater than the original asking price.  Thirty-nine percent of the homes showed a price reduction prior to selling and 73% of homes closed at a price less than their original list price.

Marin County:  Marin County is often considered a “feeder” county to our North Bay Wine Country markets.  Marin County’s inventory (639 homes) is 53% above the 481 homes in May 2024 and it is 14% above the 562 homes in inventory last month.  New sales (299) are 22% above the number last May (246) and they are 30% above the pace of last month (230).  There is a 2.1-month supply of inventory at the end of May 2025.  The median price of the 235 homes sold in Marin County in May is $1,700,000.  This is 6% above the median price a year ago ($1,598,000).  Homes sold in an average of 26 days and at 101% of original asking price.  The Marin market again showed strength in May which may lead to stronger performances in the Wine Country in coming months.

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