Wine Country and North Bay Real Estate Trends

The K-Shaped Economy and Residential Real Estate

I recently saw this article on the K-Shaped economy.  Paraphrasing the article, a K-Shaped economy is defined as having different directions depending on your wealth and income.  Parts of the economy shoot upward—like the top arm of the letter “K”—while others slide downward. The result is a recovery that rewards wealth and punishes everything else, widening the divide between those who can wait out volatility and those without the resources to do that.

The housing market is mirroring this as “the wealthiest homeowners are holding firm, buoyed by the same forces that define the top of the K-shaped recovery: concentrated wealth, diversified assets, and the luxury of time.  …lower-income potential homebuyers are facing challenges due to an uncertain job market, sluggish wage growth, and worsening financial conditions.” 

Our area is buoyed by being one of the most expensive real estate markets in the country – so we see less of the lower end of the K-shape.  Looking forward, near-term housing demand may stay subdued, until buyers see clearer signs of economic resilience, hopefully before the start of the spring homebuying season next year. For the full article, please see:https://www.realtor.com/advice/finance/k-shaped-economy-housing-divide-2025?cid=soc_shares_article_CP

North Bay Real Estate Trends for October 2025

For all the areas covered by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, the inventory dropped to 3,886 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of October.  Inventory is 8% below the inventory last month (4,202) while it remains 18% ahead of the inventory a year ago (3,277).  The drop in inventory at this time of year is typical.  There were 1,553 new sales for the month of October.  This number is 50% above a year ago (1,035) and it is 39% above the pace of last month (1,117).  The median price of homes sold across our North Bay region in October was $735,000 which is 2& below the $750,000 median price last October.  

The “Price Reduction Ratio” (PRR) is considered a leading indicator of future prices for sales and closings.  Across the country in normal years, this ratio is in the 30% to 35% range with the lower part of the range being in the Spring months.  For October 2025, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, our ratio was 49%.  The ratio was 52% last month and 33% a year ago.  You can see that almost 50% more homes are having a price reduction prior to selling on a year over year basis.  The numbers were 40% for Sonoma County, 46% for Napa County and 62% for Mendocino County.  Conversely, the ratio of homes selling for more than the original asking price was 14% across the region.  This compares to 13% last month and 25% a year ago.  The numbers were 25% in Sonoma County, 12% in Napa County and 4% in Mendocino County.  Fifty percent of the homes in the region had a price reduction prior to going into contract while 77% had a lower selling price than the original list price upon closing.  So, as is usual, most homes take a price reduction in the offer/sale/closing process. 

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of October stands at 1,189 homes.  This is 22% above the inventory in October 2024 (953) and it is 9% below the inventory last month (1,288).  New sales (500) in Sonoma County in October were 39% above the pace of October 2024 (381) and they were 28% ahead of the pace last month (391).  There is a 2.3-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The time it takes to sell a home in Sonoma County is 88 days.  For our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 407 homes closed in October in Sonoma County was $785,000. This is essentially equal to the median price in October 2024 ($783,000).  The annualized average price ($997,605) of all homes sold in the County also increased slightly in the past twelve months.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 95% of their original list price.  In October, 25% of the homes in Sonoma County sold at a price more than the original asking price and 40% of the homes had a price reduction before they sold.  Sixty-two percent of the homes closed last month had a lower selling price than the original list price.

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price more than $1,900,000).  There has been a 11% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (290) from 11/1/24 to 10/31/25 compared to 261 closings in the period 11/1/23 to 10/31/24.  The inventory of luxury homes (285) is 8% above the inventory in October 2024 (265 homes) and it is 12% below the inventory last month 323).  The pace of new sales (62) in October is 107% ahead of last year’s pace (30) and it is 114% above the sales pace last month (29).  The Days on Market for 30 Luxury Home closings was 80 days this October.  The Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in October was also 80 days.  There is a 4.6-month supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 2.2-month supply in the overall Sonoma County market.  Sonoma County Luxury Homes sold at roughly 93% of original list price in October. 

Oakmont:  There are 34 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of October.  This is 8% above the inventory in October 2024 (32) and it is 13% below the inventory of last month (39).  New sales (18) were 53% equal to the sales pace of a year ago and they were 10% below the pace of last month (20).  There is a 1.9-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the low $600,000’s up to $850,000.  The median price was $700,000 for the 22 homes that closed in October.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in October is 83 days.  

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of October (71) is 24% below the inventory in October 2024 (83) and it is 17% below the inventory last month (86).  There were 54 new sales for the month.  This is 6% ahead of the sales in October 2024 (61) and it is also 6% ahead of the sales pace last month 61.  The Petaluma market currently has 1.3-months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 56 homes that closed in October was $908,000.  This is 2% below the median price last October ($923,000).  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in October is 56 days.  The sales price to original list price in October was 99%.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of October (69) is 33% above the inventory in October 2024 (52) and it is 20% below the inventory last month (86).  There were 46 new sales in Rohnert Park in October.  This sales pace is 59% above the 29 sales in October 2024 and it is also 28% above the sales last month (36).  There is a 1.5-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price ($674,000) of the 34 homes and condominiums that closed in October is 11% below the median price in October a year ago ($755,000).  Days on Market for the homes that closed in October is 72 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of October in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (76) is 36% above the level of October 2024 (56) and it is 4% below the inventory last month (79).  There were 14 new sales for the month of October.  This is slightly below the pace in October 2024 (15) and it is 59% below the pace last month (34).  There is a 5.4-month supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace.  The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $500,000 to $640,000 over the past year.  The median was $512,000 for the 20 homes that closed in October.  The homes that closed in the Russian River in July went from listing to pending in 72 days.

Santa Rosa:  Thirty-five percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of October (406) is 25% above the inventory of a year ago (324) and it is 7% below the inventory last month (435).  New sales in October (191) are 30% above the pace of last October (147) and they are 29% above the 148 sales last month.  There is 2.1-month supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 164 homes closed in October in Santa Rosa was $710,000 which is 5% below the $750,000 price a year ago.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in October is 67 days.  The sales price to original list price in October was 97%.

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of October in Sebastopol is 59 homes.  This is 25% above the inventory last October (44) and it is 30% below the inventory last month (78).  There were 33 new sales for the month of October compared to 21 a year ago and 20 last month.  There is a 1.7-month supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace.  The 23 homes that closed in Sebastopol in October went from listing to pending in 71 days and sold at a ratio of 90% to original list price.

Sonoma Valley:  The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (205) at the end of October in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 37% above the inventory last October (150) and it is slightly below the inventory of last month (208).  There were 48 new sales for the month. This is 37% above the 35 sales in October 2024 and it is 20% above the 40 sales last month.  There is a 4.3-month supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  The average Days on Market for the 38 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in October is 97 days.  The closings in the month had a selling price equal to 89% of the original listing price.  The annualized average price ($1,447,775) of all homes sold in the Sonoma Valley decreased 5% in the past twelve months.  In October, 18% of the homes in the Sonoma Valley sold at a price more than the original list price and 50% had a reduction in price before they sold.  Seventy-nine percent of the homes in the Valley had a lower selling price than the original list price.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of October starts at $3,250,000.  Twenty-five homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 33 in the twelve months prior to that – a 24% decrease.  In October, there were 2 closings and 9 new sales in this quartile comparing to 6 closings and 6 new sales a year ago and 5 closings and 3 new sales last month. There are 51 homes available in this quartile in October 2025 compared to 36 a year ago and 58 last month creating a 5.7 month supply of inventory based on the pace of new sales.  

Sonoma Valley Townhomes and Condominiums:  As a subset of the Sonoma Valley market, there were 13 townhomes and condominiums on the market at the end of October.  This is 63% above than the 8 units a year ago and 28% below than the 18 units last month. There were 6 new sales in October compared to 3 in October 2024 and 3 last month.  Sales averaged four to five units per month over the course of last year.  Average days on market for the 3 closed sales in October was 106 days.  The sales price to original list price was 93% for these closings.

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of October is 43 properties.  This is 19% above the inventory in October 2024 (36) and it is equal to the 43 homes in inventory last month.  There were 11 sales in the month.  This is 39% below the pace of sales in October 2024 (18) and it is 35% below the pace of last month (17).  There is a 3.9-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The days on market for the 19 homes that closed in October 2025 in Windsor is 51 days.  The median price ($842,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in October compares to a median price of ($847,000) a year ago. 

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of October is 82 homes.  This is 7% below the 87 mobile homes available in October 2024 and it is 10% below the number of available mobile homes last month (91).  There were 39 new mobile home sales in October.  This is 18% above the pace of sales in October 2024 (31) and it is 90% above the pace of sales last month (23).  There is a 2.1-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 25 mobile homes closed in October is 82 days and the median price was $215,000 compared to $208,000 a year ago and $200,000 last month.

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of October is 384 properties. The current inventory is 8% above the number of lots in October 2024 (354) and it is slightly below the number of available lots last month (386). There were 17 new lot sales in October.  This is 19% below the pace of sales in October 2024 (21) and it is 11% below the pace of lot sales last month (19). There is a 23-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 11 lots closed in October is 179 days and the median price is $320,000 compared to $365,000 a year ago and $373,000 last month.   

Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of October (561) is 24% above the inventory in October 2024 (451) and it is 6% below the inventory last month (595).  New sales (104) are 37% ahead of the pace of last year (76) and are 28% ahead of the sales last month (81).  There is 5.4-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the homes closing in Napa County is currently 89 days.  In our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 89 homes closed in October in Napa County ($850,000) is 2% below the median price of a year ago ($868,000).  The annualized average price ($1,320,075) of all homes sold in the County increased 4% in the past twelve months.  Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 90% of original list price.  In October, 12% of the homes in Napa County sold at a price that was more than the original asking price and 46% of sold homes had a price reduction prior to sale.  Eighty percent of the homes sold at a price that was less than the original asking price.  

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market currently begins at $2,750,000 in Napa County. There has been a 13% increase in the number of closings (69) of Luxury Homes (sales price more than $2,750,000) in Napa County for the period 11/1/24 to 10/31/25 compared to 61 closings in the period 11/1/23 to 10/31/24.  There are 140 luxury homes in inventory at the end of October 2025 compared to 123 homes in inventory at the end of October 2024 and 152 last month. There were 14 new Luxury Home sales in October compared to 8 last year and 9 last month.  This creates a 6.4-month supply of inventory.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 86% of original asking price and the 9 homes that closed last month were on the market 86 days.

Napa:  Fifty-mime percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 333 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of October in the City of Napa. This is 28% above the supply at the end of October 2024 (259) and it is 4% below the inventory at the end of last month (348).  New sales (79) are 41% ahead of the pace of October 2024 (56) and they are 23% ahead of the pace of last month (64).  There is a 4.2-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 67 closings last month is 82 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in October was $845,000.  It is slightly above the median price of the homes closed in October 2024 ($840,000).  The closings in the month had a selling price equal to 91% of the original listing price.  

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of October (176) is 13% above the level of 156 in October 2024 and it is 7% below the inventory last month (190).  There were 15 new sales this month compared to 12 a year ago and 10 last month.  There is now a 12-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 10 closings last month is 161 days.  Over the past four months, Up Valley homes are selling at roughly 89% of original list price.  Forty-nine percent of the Luxury Market inventory (price more than $2,750,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (68 homes). There were 3 Luxury Home (price more than $2,750,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month and there were 5 new Luxury Home sales.

Angwin:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Angwin at the end of October (28) compares to 26 in October 2024 and 27 last month.  There was 1 new sale this month compared to none a year ago and twp last month.  The average asking price for the 27 homes on the market in Angwin is $1,847,000.

Mobile Homes in Napa County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of October is 42 homes.  This is essentially equal to the number of mobile homes available in October 2024 (41) and it is 16% below the 50 available homes last month.  There were 13 new mobile home sales in October.  This compares to 7 home sales last October and 7 sales last month.  There is a 3.2-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 10 mobile homes closed in October was 95 days and the median price was $178,000.  This compares to a median price of $230,000 in October 2024 and $185,000 last month.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of October stands at 391.  This is 17% above the inventory in October 2024 (335) and it is 10% below the inventory last month (433).  New sales (65) in Mendocino County in October are 63% above the pace of October 2024 (40) and they are 18% above the pace last month (55).  There now is a 6-month supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 52 homes sold in Mendocino County in October is 111 days.  For our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of sold homes in Mendocino has been between $400,000 and $600,000 over the past year.  The median price of the homes closed in October in was $512,000.  The annualized average price ($560,390) of all homes sold in the County is 5% below the average price a year ago.  Over the past four months, Mendocino County homes are selling at roughly 91% of original asking price.  In October, 4% of the homes in Mendocino County sold at a price greater than the original asking price.  Sixty-two percent of the homes showed a price reduction prior to selling and 90% of homes closed at a price less than their original list price.

Marin County:  Marin County is often considered a “feeder” county to our North Bay Wine Country markets.  Marin County’s inventory (520 homes) is 7% above the 484 homes in October 2024 and it is 11% below the 585 homes in inventory last month.  New sales (311) are 81% above the number last October (183) and they are 39% above the pace of last month (224).  There is a 1.7-month supply of inventory at the end of October 2025.  The median price of the 231 homes sold in Marin County in June is $1,400,000.  This is 11% below the median price a year ago ($1,575,000).  Homes sold in an average of 45 days and at 96% of original asking price.

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