Wine Country and North Bay Real Estate Trends 

(As I am traveling, I’ve abbreviated my usual blog.  If there is a community or market not covered here that you would like data on, please reach out to me and I will complete that information for you).

National Trends

My belief over the years has been that the “Spring Market” in the residential real estate industry begins right after Super Bowl Sunday.  Thus, I’d expect to see more listings entering the market in the coming weeks.  Thus far this year, buyer demand has been weak, and some have described the market as “stagnating”.  Up to now, there have been fewer sellers than anticipated.  Price reductions for existing inventory is high (33%) for this time of year and climbing on a week-to-week basis when it is typically trending down in the first quarter of the year.  This may lead some sellers to stay off the market until they see better conditions.  The prices for homes entering contract continue to see a modest increase (2-3%) on a year over year basis across the country.  There can be wide disparities in regional markets based on varied inventory and demand.  Mortgage rates remain in the mid-6% range and some say the prospect of 6% mortgages may be pushed off until 2026.

North Bay Real Estate Trends for January 2025

For all the areas covered by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, there is an inventory of 2,363 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of January.  Inventory is up 38% from a year ago (1,714) and it is 5% above the inventory last month (2,249).  Inventory will typically rise for the balance of February and March.  There were 800 new sales for the month of January.  This number is 15% above a year ago (679) and it is 29% ahead of the pace of last month (629).  The median price of homes sold across our North Bay region in January was $700,000 which is 4% above the $675,000 median price last January.

The “Price Reduction Ratio” (PRR) is considered a leading indicator of future prices for sales and closings.  Across the country in January, approximately 33% of the homes have a price reduction prior to their selling date.  The higher the ratio, the more likely price appreciation will be less in the coming months.  In normal years, this ratio is in the 30% to 35% range with the lower part of the range being in the Spring months.  For January 2025, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, our ratios are a bit higher than the national figures.  In the region combined, (36%) of the homes sold in January had a price reduction prior to selling.  This compares to 43% last month and 41% a year ago.  The numbers were 34% for Sonoma County, 38% for Napa County and 37% for Mendocino County.  Conversely, the ratio of homes selling for more than the original asking price was 18% across the region.  This compares to 17% last month and 17% a year ago.  The numbers were 31% in Sonoma County, 12% in Napa County and 11% in Mendocino County.  Thirty-six percent of the homes in the region had a price reduction prior to selling while 67% had a lower selling price than the original list price upon closing.  So, as is usual, most homes take a price reduction in the offer/sale process. 

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of January stands at 651 homes.  This is 46% above the inventory in January 2023 (447) and it is 5% above the inventory last month (618).  Inventory typically begins to grow again in mid-February.  Forty-five percent of the available homes for sale in Sonoma County (296) currently are priced at $1,000,000 or more.  New sales (261) in Sonoma County in January were 15% above the pace of January 2024 (228) and they were 29% above the pace last month (202).  There is a 2.5-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The time it takes to sell a home in Sonoma County is 63 days.  For our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 197 homes closed in January in Sonoma County was $770,000. This is 4% below the median price in January 2024 ($800,000).  The annualized average price ($982,509) of all homes sold in the County also decreased 4% in the past twelve months.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 94% of their original list price.  In January, 31% of the homes in Sonoma County sold at a price more than the original asking price and 34% of the homes had a price reduction before they sold.  Fifty-six percent of the homes closed last month had a lower selling price than the original list price.

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price more than $1,800,000).  There has been a 7% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (324) from 2/1/24 to 1/31/25 compared to 304 closings in the period 2/1/23 to 1/31/24.  The inventory of luxury homes (164) is 48% above the inventory in January 2024 (111 homes) and it is 5% below the inventory last month (173).  The pace of new sales (20) in January is 33% above last year’s pace (15) and it is 18% above the sales pace last month (17).  The Days on Market for 13 Luxury Home closings was 77 days this January.  The Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in January was 63 days.  There is a 8.3-month supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 2.5-month supply in the overall Sonoma County market.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 89% of original list price.  

Sonoma Valley:  The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (91) at the end of January in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 42% above the inventory last January (64) and it is 21% above the inventory of last month (75).  There were 14 new sales for the month. This is a bit below the 17 sales in January 2024 and it is 26% below the 19 sales last month.  There is a 6.5-month supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  The average Days on Market for the 13 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in January is 84 days.  The closings in the month had a selling price equal to 92% of the original listing price.  The annualized average price ($1,480,295)of all homes sold in the Sonoma Valley decreased 5% in the past twelve months.  In January, 23% of the homes in the Sonoma Valley sold at a price more than the original list price and 39% had a reduction in price before they sold.  Sixty-six percent of the homes in the Valley had a lower selling price than the original list price.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of January starts at $2,750,000.  Forty-six homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 42 in the twelve months prior to that.  In January, there were no closings and one new sale in this quartile comparing to 4 closings and 3 new sales a year ago and 4 closings and no new sales last month. There are 23 homes available in this quartile in January 2025 compared to 21 a year ago and 23 last month.  

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of January is 70 homes.  This is 23% above the 57 mobile homes available in January 2024 and it is slightly above the number of available mobile homes last month (68).  There were 27 new mobile home sales in January.  This is 21% below the pace of sales in January 2024 (34) and it is 50% above the pace of sales last month (18).  There is a 2.6-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 13 mobile homes closed in January is 114 days and the median price was $210,000 compared to $168,000 a year ago and $174,000 last month.  

Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of January (309) is 55% above the inventory in January 2024 (199) and it is 10% above the inventory last month (282).  New sales (46) are 10% below the pace of last year (51) and are 23% below the sales last month (60).  There is 6.7-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the homes closing in Napa County is currently 99 days.  In our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 49 homes closed in January in Napa County ($950,000) is 6% above the median price of a year ago ($900,000).  The annualized average price ($1,284,312) of all homes sold in the County increased 5% in the past twelve months.  Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 91% of original list price.  In January, 12% of the homes in Napa County sold at a price that was more than the original asking price and 38% of sold homes had a price reduction prior to sale.  Seventy-one percent of the homes sold at a price that was less than the original asking price.  

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market currently begins at $3,000,000 in Napa County.  There has been an increase of 28% for the number of closings (55) of Luxury Homes (sales price more than $3,000,000) in Napa County for the period 2/1/24 to 1/31/25 compared to 43 closings in the period 2/1/23 to 1/31/24.  There are 74 luxury homes in inventory at the end of January 2025 compared to 40 homes in inventory at the end of January 2024 and 69 last month. There were 5 new Luxury Home sales in January compared to 2 last year and 1 last month.  This creates a 15-month supply of inventory.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 85% of original asking price and the 2 homes that closed last month were on the market for 163 days.

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of January (86) is 34% above the level of 64 in January 2024 and it is equal to the inventory last month (86).  There were 7 new sales this month compared to 11 a year ago and 9 last month.  There is now a 8-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 7 closings last month is 180 days.  Over the past four months, Up Valley homes are selling at roughly 87% of original list price.  Thirty-six percent of the Luxury Market inventory (price more than $3,000,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (27 homes). There was one Luxury Home (price more than $3,000,000) closing in the Up Valley Market last month and there were two new Luxury Home sales.

Angwin:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Angwin at the end of January (16) compares to 11 in January 2024 and 14 last month.  There were 2 new sales this month compared to 1 a year ago and 0 last month.  The average asking price for the 16 homes on the market in Angwin is $2,533,000.

Mobile Homes in Napa County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of January is 37 homes.  This is 19% above the number of mobile homes available in January 2024 (31) and it is 23% above the 30 available homes last month.  There were 7 new mobile home sales in January.  This compares to 8 home sales last January and 4 sales last month.  There is a 6.3-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 4 mobile homes closed in January is 35 days and the median price was $260,000.  This compares to a median price of $190,000 in January 2024 and $199,000 last month.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of January stands at 279.  This is 21% above the inventory in January 2024 (231) and it is 3% below the inventory last month (287).  New sales (50) in Mendocino County in January are 35% above the pace of January 2024 (37) and they are 52% above the pace last month (33).  There now is a 5.6-month supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 33 homes sold in Mendocino County in January is 124 days.  For our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of sold homes in Mendocino has been between $400,000 and $600,000 over the past year.  The median price of the homes closed in January in was $450,000.  The annualized average price ($594,650) of all homes sold in the County is 3% above the average price a year ago.  Over the past four months, Mendocino County homes are selling at roughly 90% of original asking price.  In January, 11% of the homes in Mendocino County sold at a price greater than the original asking price.  Thirty-seven percent of the homes showed a price reduction prior to selling and 74% of homes closed at a price less than their original list price.

Marin County:  Marin County is often considered a “feeder” county to our North Bay Wine Country markets.  Marin County’s inventory (249 homes) is 24% above the 201 homes in January 2024 and it is 18% above the 212 homes in inventory last month.  New sales (97) are 12% above the number last January (87) and they are 13% above the pace of last month (86).  There is a 2.6-month supply of inventory at the end of January 2025.  The median price of the 76 homes sold in Marin County in January is $1,160,000.  This is 12% below the median price a year ago ($1,325,000).  Homes sold in an average of 75 days and at 95% of original asking price.

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