Wine Country Market Value Shifts and Sales Trends for 2022 

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for January 2022

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group enjoyed 75 closings in January 2022 compared to 37 last January and 77 last month.  In January, we closed homes with a total value of $31 million compared to $26 million last year and $31 million last month.  The average selling price of the properties sold by BHGRE|WCG in January was $416,680. 

BHGRE|WCG currently has 135 pending sales with a value of $59 million dollars.  We are 150% ahead of our unit volume last year.  We have 154 active listings with a value of $88 million dollars.  We are 200% ahead of last year in our listing unit volume.  Our average listing price is $529,000.

Congratulations to the following agents who had closings in the month of January:

Sarah Duschka (4); Jessica Spencer (4); Heather Thurber (3); Chelsie Runnings (3); Mari Giblin (3); Team Ramos (2); Parmeeta Ghoman (2); Rianne Pasquariello (2); Maria Flores (2); Myriah Bivin (2); Jessica Hooten; David Lucido; Paige Hotchkiss; Rob Ross; Herb Heil; Mary Jensen; Pepe Mendoza; Jade Capriotti; Brian Shea; Liz Uribe; Lisa Borgo; Kendra Martin; Chris Brown; David Hughes; Sophie Phelps; Pippa Whelan; Tish Thames and Maureen Linde.

North Bay Real Estate Trends for January 2022

For all of the areas covered by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, there is an inventory of 1,051 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of January.  Inventory is 28% below that of a year ago (1,454) and it is slightly above the inventory last month (1,046).  At times, the inventory has exceeded 10,000 homes in the BAREIS region.  Like most parts of the entire country, and in Wine Country, inventories are at record low levels.  There were 956 sales for the month of January.  This number is 21% below a year ago (1,203) and 9% above the pace of last month (881).

There are many unique factors in place in the real estate market right now.  There are spiking new listing prices, spiking interest rates, record low inventory, record high (30%) of new listings that sell in the first week of coming on the market, record low Price Reduction Ratios (18%) for this time of year and record low delinquency rates. Higher interest rates (+.06%) have not yet “hit the market” so it will be interesting to watch closely.

I have been following a data point I call the “Price Reduction Ratio” (PRR) for the past year, or so.  Across the country, on average, one might expect that 30 to 35% of the homes put into the MLS will have a price reduction before they eventually sell.  Currently, for the entire country, the ratio is 18%.  For January 2022, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, the range was from 22% (Napa County) to 37% (Mendocino County).  Conversely, the ratio of homes selling in excess of Original List Price (OLP) ranged from 22% (Mendocino County) to 50% (Sonoma County).  It was 39% in Napa County.  The average Price Reduction Ratio for all areas has gone from a low of 14% in May of this year to 27% where it stands now.  The Over List Price has dropped from 55% in May to the current level of 37%.  These are signs of a cooling market after the heated market of last summer.

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of January stands at a record low 260 homes.  This is 51% below the inventory in January 2021 (525) and it is 3% below the inventory last month (267).  New sales (310) in Sonoma County in January were 27% below the pace of January 2021 (426) and they were 9% above the pace last month (284).  There is a 0.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 30 (Rohnert Park) to 103 (Cloverdale) days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 58 days.  The median price of the 269 homes closed in January in Sonoma County was $750,000. This is 14.5% above the median price in January 2021 ($655,000).  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 98% of their original list price.  

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $2,400,000).  There has been a 76% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (243) from 2/1/21 to 1/31/22 compared to 138 closings in the period 2/1/20 to 1/31/21.  The inventory of luxury homes (65) is 11% below the inventory in January 2021 (73 homes).  The pace of new sales (11) in January this year is 8% below the pace of a year ago (12) and it is 21% below the pace last month (14).  The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 121 days this January compared to 92 days a year ago. This compares to 58 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in January.  There is a 6 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 0.8 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 93% of original list price.

Cloverdale:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (20) in Cloverdale at the end of January is 11% above the inventory in January 2021 (18) and it is 54% above the inventory of last month (13).  There were 10 new sales in Cloverdale in January.  This compares to 16 sales in January 2021 and 10 new sales last month.  There is a 2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 7 homes that closed in January was 103 days.

Coastal Sonoma:  There are 4 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This compares to 2 homes in inventory in January 2021 and 7 homes last month.  There were 6 new sales in January compared to 4 a year ago and 3 last month.  There is now a 0.7 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 1 home that closed in January was 97 days.  The coastal area market remains a very tight market.

Healdsburg Trends:  There are 32 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month.  This is 40% below the inventory in January 2021 (53) and it is 11% below the inventory last month (36).  New sales in January (18) were 18% below the pace of sales in January 2021 (22) and they were equal to the sales pace last month (18).  The months of available inventory was 1.8 months at the end of January based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 17 homes that closed in January was 99 days.  

Oakmont:  There are just 6 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of January.  This is 87% below the inventory in January 2021 (47) and it is 40% below the inventory of last month (10).  New sales (15) were equal to the sales pace of a year ago (15) and 12% below the pace of last month (17).  There is a 0.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high $500,000’s up to $800,000.  The median price was $705,000 for the 11 homes that closed in January.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in January was 86 days.  

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of January (29) is 6% below the inventory in January 2021 (31) and it is 61% ahead of the inventory last month 18).  There were 29 new sales for the month.  This is 33% below the sales in January 2021 (43) and it is 26% above the sales pace last month (23).  The Petaluma market currently has one months supply of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 21 homes that closed in January was $827,000.  This is 11% below the median price last January ($928,000).  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in January was 38 days.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of January (8) is 50% below the inventory in January 2021 (16) and it is 100% ahead of the inventory last month (4).  There were 21 new sales in Rohnert Park in January.  This sales pace is 55% below the 47 sales in January 2021 and it is 11% above the sales last month (19).  This is the twentieth month in a row where sales were in excess of the inventory at the beginning of the month.  In January, the month started with 4 available properties and there were 21 sales in the month.  There is a 0.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  This is the tightest market in Wine Country.  The median price ($650,000) of the 21 homes and condominiums that closed in January is 17% above the median price in January a year ago ($555,000).  Days on Market for the homes that closed in January was 30 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of January in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (21) is equal to the level of January 2021 (21) and it is also equal to the inventory last month (21).  There were 10 new sales for the month of January.  This is 44% below the pace in January 2021 (18) and it is essentially equal to the pace last month (11).  There is a 2.1 months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace.  The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $400,000 to $670,000 over the past year.  The median was $465,000 for the 11 homes that closed in January.  The homes that closed in the Russian River in January went from listing to pending in 50 days.

Santa Rosa:  Thirty-three percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of January (85) is 66% below the inventory of a year ago (251) and it is 12% below the inventory last month (97).  New sales in January (148) are 22% below the pace of last January (190) and they are 10% above the pace last month (134).  There is a 0.6 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 134 homes closed in January in Santa Rosa was $705,000 compared to $602,000 a year ago.  This is a 14% increase.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in January was 54 days.  

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of January in Sebastopol (15) is 56% below the level of January 2021 (34) and it is slightly below the inventory last month (16).  There were 18 new sales for the month of January.  This is 33% below the pace in January 2021 (27) and it is 13% below the pace last month (16).  There is a 0.8 months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace.  The 16 homes that closed in Sebastopol in January went from listing to pending in 59 days.

Sonoma Valley:  The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (29) at the end of January in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 47% below the inventory last January (55) and it is 22% below the inventory of last month (37).  Seventy-two percent of the available properties in the Sonoma Valley (21) are priced at $1,000,000, or more. There were 21 new sales for the month. This is 36% below the 33 sales in January 2021 and it is 22% below the 27 sales last month.  There is a 1.4 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  The average Days on Market for the 23 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in January is 93 days.  The closings in the month had a selling price equal to 89% of the original listing price – a drop from the 97% to 100% that was experienced in the summer and fall of last year. 

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of January starts at $3,500,000.  Thirty-seven homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 26 in the twelve months prior to that.  In January, there were two new sales in this quartile.  There are 8 homes available in this quartile in January 2022 compared to 9 a year ago and 12 last month. Based on the current sales pace, the months of inventory is 4 months.  The average days on market for the two homes that closed in January in this quartile was 219 days.

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of January is 9 properties.  This is 68% below the inventory in January 2021 (28) and it is slightly ahead of the 8 homes in inventory last month.  There were 14 sales in the month.  This is slightly ahead of the pace of sales in January 2021 (13) and it is also slightly ahead of the pace of last month (13).  There is a 0.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The days on market for the 12 homes that closed in January 2021 in Windsor was 66 days.  The median price ($794,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in January is 11% above the median price a year ago ($715,000).

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of January was 32 homes.  This is 51% below the number of mobile homes available in January 2021 (65) and it is 10% ahead of the number of available mobile homes last month (29).  There were 27 new mobile home sales in January.  This is equal to the pace of sales in January 2021 (27) and it is 7% below the pace of sales last month (29).  There is a 1.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 29 mobile homes closed in January was 67 days and the median price was $185,000.  This median price is 45% ahead of the median price of $128,000 in January 2021.  

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of January is 231 properties. The current inventory is 26% below the number of lots in January 2021 (314) and it is 10% below the number of available lots last month (256). There were 40 new lot sales in January.  This is 5% below the pace of sales in January 2021 (42) and it is 74% above the pace of lot sales last month (23). There is a 6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 29 lots closed in January was 178 days and the median price was $290,000.   

Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of January (131) is 40% below the inventory in January 2021 (218) and it is 7% below the inventory last month (141).  Sixty-nine percent of the inventory in Napa County (90 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above.   New sales (78) are 18% below the pace of last year (95) and are 16% above the 67 sales last month.  There is a 1.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 56 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 63 homes closed in January in Napa County ($823,000) is 15% above the median price of a year ago ($716,000).  Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 95% of original list price.

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $5,250,000 in Napa County at this time.  This is the highest median price for this quartile that we have ever recorded.  There has been an increase of 43% for the number of closings (33) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $5,250,000) in Napa County for the period 2/1/21 to 1/31/22 compared to 23 closings in the period 2/1/20 to 1/31/21.  There are 33 luxury homes in inventory at the end of January 2022 compared to 39 homes in inventory at the end of January 2021 and 31 last month. There were no new Luxury Home sales in January compared to 2 last year and 1 last month.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 88.5% of original list price.

American Canyon:  There are just 2 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of January in American Canyon. This is 100% below inventory a year ago (4) and it is 100% below the supply last month (4).  There were 5 new sales in the month.  This is equal to the pace of last year (5) and it is 29% below the 7 sales last month.  There is a 0.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for 9 homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 65 days. The median price of the homes that closed in American Canyon in January ($720,000) was well in excess of the median price of a year ago ($480,000).  The median sold price has been in excess of $750,000 in several months in the past year.  The average price per square foot of the homes sold in American Canyon was at $363 last month.  This is somewhat ahead of the $275 to $350 range where the sales have been over the past several years.

Napa:  Forty-eight percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 63 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of January in the City of Napa. This is 49% below the supply at the end of January 2021 (121) and it is slightly above the inventory at the end of last month (61).  New sales (50) were 28% below the pace of January 2021 (69) and they were 19% above the pace of last month (42). There is a 1.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 41 closings last month was 48 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in January was a record high $1,265,000. This is well in excess of the median price of the homes closed in January 2021 ($729,000).

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of January (54) is 31% below the level of 78 in January 2021 and it is 13% below the inventory last month (62).  There were 18 new sales this month compared to 16 a year ago and 15 last month.  There is now a 3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 10 closings last month was 76 days.  Approximately 51% of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $5,250,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (17 homes). There were no luxury home (price in excess of $5,250,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month and there were no new luxury home sales.  

In Angwin in January, inventory was 5 homes compared to 15 a year ago and 6 last month.  There were 2 new sales in Angwin for the month compared to one a year ago and 3 last month.  The median price of the active listings in Angwin as of January 2022 is a whopping $4,000,000.

Mobile Homes in Napa County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of January is 21 homes.  This is 19% below the number of mobile homes available in January 2021 (26) and it is 25% below the 28 available homes last month.  There were 13 new mobile home sales in January.  This is 225% above the pace of sales in January 2021 (4) and it is 44% above the pace of sales last month (9).  There is a 1.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The average days on market of the 9 mobile homes closed in January was 48 days and the median price was $210,000.  This compares to a median price of $140,000 in January 2021 and $283,000 last month. The median price of sold mobile homes in Napa seems to vary quite a bit from month to month.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of January stands at 187.  This is 87% above the inventory in January 2021 (100) and it is 17% above the inventory last month (160).  New sales (40) in Mendocino County in January were 39% below the pace of January 2021 (66) and they were 25% above the pace last month (53).  There now is a 4.7 months supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 41 homes sold in Mendocino County in January is 74 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the homes closed in January in Mendocino County was $512,000. This is slightly above the median price in January 2021 ($510,000).  

Ukiah:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of January in Ukiah is 31 homes.  This is 48% ahead of the level of January 2021 (21) and it is equal to the inventory last month (31).  There were 13 new sales for the month of January.  This is 38% below the number of sales in January 2021 (21) and it is 54% below the sales last month (28).  There is 2.4 months of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 17 closings last month is 70 days.  The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from $370,000 to $519,000. The median price was $512,000 for the homes that closed in January.

Hopland and Talmage:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of January in Hopland and Talmage is 8 homes.  This compares to 11 homes in inventory at the end of January 2021 and 7 homes in inventory last month.  There was one new sale for the month of January.  This compares to one sale in January 2021 and two new sales last month.  There was one closing in the Talmage-Hopland market last month.

Redwood Valley and Calpella:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of January in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 8 homes.  This compares to 6 homes in January 2021 and 10 homes last month.  There were 5 new sales for the month of January.  This compares to 4 sales in January 2021 and 2 new sales last month.  There is a 1.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $725,000.  There were 5 closings in Redwood Valley/Calpella in January at a median price of $740,000 and the homes sold in 111 days. 

Lake County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Lake County at the end of January stands at 357.  This is 33% above the inventory in January 2021 (268) and it is 9.5% above the inventory last month (326). Closed sales (83) in Lake County in January were 15% ahead of the pace of January 2021 (72) and they were 16% below the pace last month (99).  There now is a 3.7 months supply of inventory in Lake County based on the existing sales pace.  The median Days on Market for the homes sold in Lake County in January is 36 days.  Usually “Days on Market” are traced from listing date to pending date, so the closing date would be somewhat longer.  The median price of the homes closed in January in Lake County was $330,000. This is 11% ahead of the median price in January 2021 ($297,000).  The homes sold in Lake County last month sold at 97% of original list price.

Marin County:  Marin is often considered a “feeder” county to Wine Country.  Marin County’s inventory (127 homes) is 41% below the 214 homes in January 2021 and it is 36% above the 93 homes in inventory last month.  New sales (123) were 32% below the number last January (182) and were 10% above the pace of last month (112).  This creates a one months supply.  The median price of the 111 homes sold in Marin County in January was $1,320,000.  This is 13% ahead of the median price a year ago ($1,168,000).