Wine Country Real Estate Trends in February 2022

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for February 2022

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group enjoyed 79 closings in February 2022 compared to 34 last February and 75 last month.  In February, we closed homes with a total value of $33 million compared to $26 million last year and $31 million last month.  The average selling price of the properties sold by BHGRE|WCG in February was $423,225. 

BHGRE|WCG currently has 123 pending sales with a value of $50 million dollars.  We are 78% ahead of our unit volume last year.  We have 151 active listings with a value of $90 million dollars.  We are 202% ahead of last year in our listing unit volume.  Our average listing price is $596,000.

Congratulations to the following agents who had closings in the month of February:

David Hughes (8); Maria Flores (3); Sarah Duschka (2); Mari Giblin (2); Jessica Spencer (2); Heather Thurber (2); David Lucido (2); Dan Gallagher (2); Rob Ross (2); Marsha Whedan; Rianne Pasquariello; Denise Ridley; Amy Wray; Kimberly Getts; Pepe Mendoza; Kendra Martin; Erick Rothfeld; Pippa Whelan; Tish Thames and Norm Brown.

North Bay Real Estate Trends for February 2022

For all of the areas covered by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, there is an inventory of 1,156 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of February.  Inventory is 19% below that of a year ago (1,431) and it is 10% above the inventory last month (1,051).  At times, the inventory has exceeded 10,000 homes in the BAREIS region.  Like most parts of the entire country, and in Wine Country, inventories are at record low levels.  There were 1,136 sales for the month of February.  This number is 12% below a year ago (1,287) and 23% above the pace of last month (926).

There are many unique factors in place in the real estate market right now.  There are spiking new listing prices, spiking interest rates, record low inventory, record high (32%) of new listings that sell in the first week of coming on the market, record low Price Reduction Ratios (17%) for this time of year and record low delinquency rates. Higher interest rates, now hovering around 4%, inflation and the Russian war in the Ukraine all make for an unpredictable market.

I have been following a data point I call the “Price Reduction Ratio” (PRR) for the past year, or so.  Across the country, on average, one might expect that 30 to 35% of the homes put into the MLS will have a price reduction before they eventually sell.  Currently, for the entire country, the ratio is about 17%.  For February 2022, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, the range was from 12% (Sonoma County) to 26% (Mendocino County).  Conversely, the ratio of homes selling in excess of Original List Price (OLP) ranged from 42% (Mendocino County) to 64% (Sonoma County).  It was 51% in Napa County.

National forecasts are for slightly increasing inventory beginning in May and sales price increases lasting well into 2023, though at a lower rate than 2021.  Average national rents for homes ($2,100) have increased 17% on a year over year basis.   

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of February stands at 325 homes.  This is 39% below the inventory in February 2021 (534) and it is 25% above the inventory last month (260).  New sales (376) in Sonoma County in February were 15% below the pace of February 2021 (443) and they were 25% above the pace last month (300).  There is a 0.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 19 (Rohnert Park) to 66 (Healdsburg and Oakmont) days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 43 days.  The median price of the 284 homes closed in February in Sonoma County was $770,000. This is 13% above the median price in February 2021 ($680,000).  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 99% of their original list price.  

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $2,300,000).  There has been a 75% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (272) from 3/1/21 to 2/28/22 compared to 155 closings in the period 3/1/20 to 2/28/21.  The inventory of luxury homes (82) is 13% below the inventory in February 2021 (94 homes) and it is 16% above the inventory last month (71).  The pace of new sales (13) in February this year is 18% above the pace of a year ago (11) and it is 18% above the pace last month (11).  The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 72 days this February compared to 100 days a year ago. This compares to 43 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in February.  There is a 6.3 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 0.9 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 93% of original list price.

Cloverdale:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (17) in Cloverdale at the end of February is 11% below the inventory in February 2021 (19) and it is 15% below the inventory of last month (20).  There were 14 new sales in Cloverdale in February.  This compares to 6 sales in February 2021 and 10 new sales last month.  There is a 1.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 12 homes that closed in February was 63 days.

Coastal Sonoma:  There are 7 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This compares to 5 homes in inventory in February 2021 and 4 homes last month.  There were 3 new sales in February compared to 5 a year ago and 6 last month.  There is now a 2.3 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 6 homes that closed in February was 58 days. 

Healdsburg Trends:  There are 34 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month.  This is 39% below the inventory in February 2021 (56) and it is 6% above the inventory last month (32).  New sales in February (24) were 25% below the pace of sales in February 2021 (32) and they were 33% above the sales pace last month (18).  The months of available inventory is 1.4 months at the end of February based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 15 homes that closed in February was 66 days.  

Oakmont:  There are just two homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of February.  This is 96% below the inventory in February 2021 (46) and it is 67% below the inventory of last month (6).  New sales (18) were 14% below the sales pace of a year ago (21) and 12% above the pace of last month (16).  There is just a 0.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace making Oakmont the tightest market in Wine Country.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high $500,000’s up to $800,000.  The median price was $570,000 for the 18 homes that closed in February.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in February was 66 days.  

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of February (36) is 5% below the inventory in February 2021 (38) and it is 24% ahead of the inventory last month 29).  There were 52 new sales for the month.  This is 21% ahead of the sales in February 2021 (41) and it is 86% above the sales pace last month (28).  The Petaluma market currently has 0.7 months supply of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 28 homes that closed in February was $863,000.  This is 10 % above the median price last February ($787,000).  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in February was 25 days.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of February (10) is 38% below the inventory in February 2021 (16) and it is 25% ahead of the inventory last month (8).  There were 27 new sales in Rohnert Park in February.  This sales pace is 31% below the 39 sales in February 2021 and it is 50% above the sales last month (18).  This is the twenty-first month in a row where sales were in excess of the inventory at the beginning of the month in Rohnert Park.  In February, the month started with 8 available properties and there were 27 sales in the month.  There is a 0.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  This remains a very tight market.  The median price ($736,000) of the 18 homes and condominiums that closed in February is 21% above the median price in February a year ago ($610,000).  This is the highest median price ever recorded in Rohnert Park.  Days on Market for the homes that closed in February was just 19 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of February in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (25) is slightly above the level of February 2021 (24) and it is 19% above the inventory last month (21).  There were 17 new sales for the month of February.  This is 31% ahead of the pace in February 2021 (11) and it is 55% ahead of the pace last month (11).  There is a 1.5 months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace.  The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $400,000 to $670,000 over the past year.  The median was $750,000 for the 13 homes that closed in February setting a new record high median price in the Russian River market.  The homes that closed in the Russian River in February went from listing to pending in 64 days.

Santa Rosa:  Thirty-six percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of February (116) is 51% below the inventory of a year ago (238) and it is 37% above the inventory last month (85).  New sales in February (160) are 20% below the pace of last February (201) and they are 10% above the pace last month (145).  There is a 0.7 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 130 homes closed in February in Santa Rosa was $705,000 compared to $620,000 a year ago.  This is a 14% increase.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in February was 43 days.  

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of February in Sebastopol (17) is 29% below the level of February 2021 (24) and it is slightly above the inventory last month (15).  There were 16 new sales for the month of February.  This is 20% below the pace in February 2021 (20) and it is essentially equal to the pace last month (16).  There is a 1.1 months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace.  The 13 homes that closed in Sebastopol in February went from listing to pending in 46 days.

Sonoma Valley:  The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (39) at the end of February in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 49% below the inventory last February (76) and it is 35% above the inventory of last month (29).  Eighty-five percent of the available properties in the Sonoma Valley (33) are priced at $1,000,000, or more. There were 32 new sales for the month. This is 11% below the 36 sales in February 2021 and it is 60% ahead of the 20 sales last month.  There is a 1.2 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  The average Days on Market for the 21 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in February is 40 days.  The closings in the month had a selling price equal to 100% of the original listing price – a return to the level that was experienced in the summer and fall of last year.  In February, 55% of the homes in the Sonoma Valley sold at a price in excess of the original list price and 14% of the homes had a reduction in price before they sold.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of February starts at $3,500,000.  Thirty-nine homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 27 in the twelve months prior to that.  In February, there were two new sales in this quartile.  There are 11 homes available in this quartile in February 2022 compared to 16 a year ago and 8 last month. Based on the current sales pace, the months of inventory is 5.5 months.  The average days on market for the 3 homes that closed in February in this quartile was 73 days.

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of February is 13 properties.  This is 46% below the inventory in February 2021 (24) and it is 44% ahead of the 9 homes in inventory last month.  There were 22 sales in the month.  This is 34% below the pace of sales in February 2021 (33) and it is 57% ahead of the pace of last month (14).  There is a 0.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The days on market for the 13 homes that closed in February 2021 in Windsor was 33 days.  The median price ($715,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in February is 6% above the median price a year ago ($675,000).

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of February is 32 homes.  This is 49% below the number of mobile homes available in February 2021 (63) and it is equal to the number of available mobile homes last month (32).  There were 34 new mobile home sales in February.  This is 6% below the pace of sales in February 2021 (36) and it is 42% above the pace of sales last month (24).  There is a 0.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 21 mobile homes closed in February was 51 days and the median price was $186,000.  This median price is 25% ahead of the median price of $149,000 in February 2021.  

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of February is 242 properties. The current inventory is 14% below the number of lots in February 2021 (282) and it is 5% above the number of available lots last month (231). There were 34 new lot sales in February.  This is 33% below the pace of sales in February 2021 (51) and it is 8% below the pace of lot sales last month (37). There is a 7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 27 lots closed in February was 93 days and the median price was $350,000.   

Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of February (150) is 33% below the inventory in February 2021 (223) and it is15% above the inventory last month (131).  Seventy-five percent of the inventory in Napa County (112 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above.   New sales (107) are 5% above the pace of last year (102) and are 43% above the 75 sales last month.  There is a 1.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 56 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 76 homes closed in February in Napa County ($924,000) is 8% above the median price of a year ago ($855,000).  Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 96% of original list price.

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $5,000,000 in Napa County at this time.  There has been an increase of 25% for the number of closings (35) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $5,000,000) in Napa County for the period 3/1/21 to 2/28/22 compared to 28 closings in the period 3/1/20 to 2/28/21.  There are 37 luxury homes in inventory at the end of February 2022 compared to 40 homes in inventory at the end of February 2021 and 34 last month. There were no new Luxury Home sales in February compared to 2 last year and none last month.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 88.5% of original list price.

American Canyon:  There are 6 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of February in American Canyon. This is 100% above inventory a year ago (3) and it is 200% ahead of the supply last month (2).  There were 5 new sales in the month.  This is 55% below the pace of last year (11) and it is a unit ahead of the 4 sales last month.  There is a 1.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for 5 homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 72 days. The median price of the homes that closed in American Canyon in February ($695,000) is 22% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($570,000).  The average price per square foot of the homes sold in American Canyon was at $528 last month.  This is well ahead of the $275 to $350 range where the sales have been over the past several years.

Napa:  Forty-eight percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 72 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of February in the City of Napa. This is 43% below the supply at the end of February 2021 (127) and it is 14% above the inventory at the end of last month (63).  New sales (71) were about equal to the pace of February 2021 (70) and they were 45% above the pace of last month (49). There is a 1.0 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 51 closings last month was 39 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in February was $890,000. This is 5% above the median price of the homes closed in February 2021 ($845,000).

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of February (60) is 23% below the level of 78 in February 2021 and it is 11% above the inventory last month (54).  There were 24 new sales this month compared to 16 a year ago and 18 last month.  There is now a 2.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 16 closings last month was 102 days.  Approximately 46% of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $5,000,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (17 homes). There were no luxury home (price in excess of $5,000,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month and there were tw0 new luxury home sales.  

In Angwin in February, inventory was 7 homes compared to 15 a year ago and 5 last month.  There was one new sale in Angwin for the month compared to 2 a year ago and 2 last month.  The average price of the active listings in Angwin as of February 2022 is a whopping $4,924,000.

Mobile Homes in Napa County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of February is 13 homes.  This is 46% below the number of mobile homes available in February 2021 (24) and it is 38% below the 21 available homes last month.  There were 17 new mobile home sales in February.  This is 55% above the pace of sales in February 2021 (11) and it is 42% above the pace of sales last month (12).  There is a 0.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The average days on market of the 9 mobile homes closed in February was 88 days and the median price was $239,000.  This compares to a median price of $122,000 in February 2021 and $192,000 last month.  The median price of sold mobile homes in Napa seems to vary quite a bit from month to month.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of February stands at 183.  This is 73% above the inventory in February 2021 (106) and it is 2% below the inventory last month (187).  New sales (52) in Mendocino County in February were 6% above the pace of February 2021 (49) and they were 53% above the pace last month (34).  There now is a 3.5 months supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 38 homes sold in Mendocino County in February is 72 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the homes closed in February in Mendocino County was $500,000. This is 4% below the median price in February 2021 ($519,000).  

Ukiah:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of February in Ukiah is 25 homes.  This is slightly below the level of February 2021 (26) and it is 19% below the inventory last month (31).  There were 22 new sales for the month of February.  This is 38% above the number of sales in February 2021 (16) and it is 69% ahead of the sales last month (13).  There is 1.1 months of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 19 closings last month is 67 days.  The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from $370,000 to $528,000. The median price was $528,000 for the homes that closed in February.

Hopland and Talmage:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of February in Hopland and Talmage is 5 homes.  This compares to 5 homes in inventory at the end of February 2021 and 8 homes in inventory last month.  There were two new sales for the month of February.  This compares to four sales in February 2021 and one new sale last month.  There were two closings in the Talmage-Hopland market last month with an average Days on Market of 41 days.

Redwood Valley and Calpella:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of February in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 11 homes.  This compares to 7 homes in February 2021 and 8 homes last month.  There were 3 new sales for the month of February.  This compares to 5 sales in February 2021 and 5 new sales last month.  There is a 3.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $725,000.  There were 2 closings in Redwood Valley/Calpella in February at a median price of $439,000 and the homes sold in 55 days. 

Lake County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Lake County at the end of February stands at 375.  This is 48% above the inventory in February 2021 (254) and it is 20% above the inventory last month (312). Closed sales (83) in Lake County in February were 20% below the pace of February 2021 (104) and they were equal to the pace last month (83).  There now is a 3.9 months supply of inventory in Lake County based on the existing sales pace.  The median Days on Market for the homes sold in Lake County in February is 49 days.  Usually “Days on Market” are traced from listing date to pending date, so the closing date would be somewhat longer.  The median price of the homes closed in February in Lake County was $317,000. This is 5% ahead of the median price in February 2021 ($301,000).  The homes sold in Lake County last month sold at 97% of original list price.

Marin County:  Marin County is often considered a “feeder” county to our North Bay Wine Country markets.  Marin County’s inventory (138 homes) is 38% below the 221 homes in February 2021 and it is 9% above the 127 homes in inventory last month.  New sales (201) were 13% below the number last February (231) and were 62% above the pace of last month (124).  This creates a 0.7 months supply.  The median price of the 148 homes sold in Marin County in February was $1,330,000.  This is slightly below the median price a year ago ($1,340,000).