Wine Country Real Estate Trends in March 2022

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Results for March 2022

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group and Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Ming Tree enjoyed 90 closings in March 2022 compared to 48 last March and 79 last month.  In March, we closed homes with a total value of $44 million compared to $28 million last year and $33 million last month.  The average selling price of the properties sold by BHGRE|WCG in March was $489,000. 

BHGRE|WCG currently has 123 pending sales with a value of $50 million dollars.  We are 78% ahead of our unit volume last year.  We have 151 active listings with a value of $90 million dollars.  We are 202% ahead of last year in our listing unit volume.  Our average listing price is $596,000.

Congratulations to the following BHGRE|Wine Country Group agents who had closings in the month of March:

Jessica Spencer (8); Linda Alioto (5); Denise Ridley (5); David Lucido (4); Ryan Gourd (4); Mari Giblin (4); Team Ramos (3); Rianne Pasquariello (3); Elizabeth Uribe (3); Paige Hotchkiss (3); Jose Mendoza (2); Jana Adams (2); Sheila Deignan (2); Laurie Parris (2); Cheryl Marinaro (2); Carina De Herrera (2); David Hughes (2); Marsha Wedan (2); Mary Jansen; Sarah Duschka; Kendra Martin; Pippa Whelan; Tish Thames; Mara Kahn; Chelsie Runnings; Maria Flores; Jessica Hooten; Del Nordby; Mireya Nelson; Martha Saly;  and Zebi Bojarsky. 

And our Top BHGRE|Wine Country Group Producers for the 1^st Quarter of 2022 include:

Clearlake:  Units and Dollar Volume – Jessica Spencer;  Listings:      Dave Hughes

Lakeport:  Units, Dollar Volume and Listings – David Lucido

Petaluma:  Units and Dollar Volume – Parmeeta Ghoman;  Listings –          Mireya Nelson

Santa Rosa:  Units and Listings – Mari Giblin;  Dollar Volume –Thurber Ross Team 

Sebastopol:  Units, Dollar Volume and Listings – Liz Uribe

Sonoma:  Units – Chelsie Runnings;  Dollar Volume – Isaac Raboy; Listings – Sheila Deignan 

St. Helena and Napa:  Units – Rianne Pasquariello;  Dollar Volume and Listings – Linda Alioto  

Ukiah:  Units, Dollar Volume and Listings – Team Ramos 

North Bay Real Estate Trends for March 2022

For all of the areas covered by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, there is an inventory of 1,423 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of March.  Inventory is slightly below that of a year ago (1,450) and it is 23% above the inventory last month (1,156).  At times, the inventory has exceeded 10,000 homes in the BAREIS region.  Despite a pick-up in March, inventory remains very low on a historical basis.  There were 1,552 sales for the month of March.  This number is 10% below a year ago (1,726) and 42% above the pace of last month (1,093).

One national commentator says that the real estate market is at a “difficult intersection”.  There are spiking interest rates and intense buyer competition at the same time.  There are record new home prices for sold homes and record low inventory.  Higher interest rates, now approaching 5%, inflation and the war in the Ukraine all make for an unpredictable market.  The impact of recent higher interest rates will be seen in a month or two.  The last time mortgage interest rates were at this level was in 2018 when they peaked at 4.9%.  The market velocity slowed then but appreciation continued through that period.  

FNMA (Federal National Mortgage Association) has conducted a monthly “National Housing Survey” since 2010 and recorded a record low 17% in consumer sentiment that “it’s a good time to buy a home” in March’s report.  Conversely, there’s a record high 73% of consumers saying “it’s a good time to sell a home”.  FNMA is predicting a 6% drop in existing housing units sold in the 2022 while the dollar volume will increase slightly because of sales price increases that are predicted to be in the 10% range.  

I have been following a data point I call the “Price Reduction Ratio” (PRR) for the past year, or so.  Across the country, on average, one might expect that 30 to 35% of the homes put into the MLS will have a price reduction before they eventually sell.  Currently, for the entire country, the ratio is a very low 17%.  For March 2022, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, the range was from 8% (Sonoma County) to 27% (Mendocino County).  Conversely, the ratio of homes selling in excess of Original List Price (OLP) ranged from 35% (Mendocino County) to 75% (Sonoma County).  The ratios were 12% and 60% respectively in Napa County.

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of March stands at 391 homes.  This is 32% below the inventory in March 2021 (574) and it is 20% above the inventory last month (325).  New sales (530) in Sonoma County in March were 14% below the pace of March 2021 (619) and they were 47% above the pace last month (361).  There is a 0.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 18 (Petaluma) to 51 (Sebastopol) days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 31 days.  The median price of the 413 homes closed in March in Sonoma County was $799,000. This is 12% above the median price in March 2021 ($712,000).  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 100% of their original list price.  Homes sold for 105% of original list price in Sonoma County last month.

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $2,600,000).  This is a record high top quartile price for Sonoma County.  There has been a 69% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (204) from 4/1/21 to 3/31/22 compared to 121 closings in the period 4/1/20 to 3/31/21.  The inventory of luxury homes (98) is 9% above the inventory in March 2021 (90 homes) and it is 36% above the inventory last month (72).  The pace of new sales (29) in March this year is 38% above the pace of a year ago (21) and it is 190% above the pace last month (10).  The Days on Market for 14 Luxury Home closings was just 17 days this March compared to 67 days a year ago. This compares to 31 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in March.  There is a 3.4 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 0.7 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 94% of original list price.

Cloverdale:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (14) in Cloverdale at the end of March is 36% below the inventory in March 2021 (22) and it is 18% below the inventory of last month (17).  There were 17 new sales in Cloverdale in March.  This compares to 14 sales in March 2021 and 12 new sales last month.  There is a 0.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 15 homes that closed in March is 36 days.

Coastal Sonoma:  There are 6 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This compares to 5 homes in inventory in March 2021 and 7 homes last month.  There were 4 new sales in March compared to 7 a year ago and 3 last month.  There is now a 1.5 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 7 homes that closed in March is 21 days.  

Healdsburg Trends:  There are 42 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month.  This is 28% below the inventory in March 2021 (58) and it is 24% above the inventory last month (34).  New sales in March (24) were 27% below the pace of sales in March 2021 (31) and they were 9% above the sales pace last month (22).  The months of available inventory is 1.8 months at the end of March based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 21 homes that closed in March is 43 days.  

Oakmont:  There are just four homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of March.  This is 92% below the inventory in March 2021 (47) and it is two units above the inventory of last month (2).  New sales (23) were 21% below the sales pace of a year ago (29) and 28% above the pace of last month (18).  There is just a 0.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace making Oakmont the tightest market in Wine Country.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high $500,000’s up to $800,000.  The median price was $810,000 for the 21 homes that closed in March.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in March is 41 days. 

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of March (32) is 14% below the inventory in March 2021 (37) and it is 11% below the inventory last month (36).  There were 71 new sales for the month.  This is slightly below the sales in March 2021 (74) and it is 37% above the sales pace last month (52).  The Petaluma market currently has 0.5 months supply of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 57 homes that closed in March was $900,000. This is 14% above the median price last March ($793,000).  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in March is 18 days.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of March (13) is 41% below the inventory in March 2021 (22) and it is 30% ahead of the inventory last month (10).  There were 39 new sales in Rohnert Park in March.  This sales pace is 24% below the 51 sales in March 2021 and it is 44% above the sales last month (27).  This is the twenty-second month in a row where sales were in excess of the inventory at the beginning of the month in Rohnert Park.  In March, the month started with 10 available properties and there were 39 sales in the month.  There is a 0.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  This remains a very tight market.  The median price ($670,000) of the 27 homes and condominiums that closed in March is 12% above the median price in March a year ago ($600,000).  Days on Market for the homes that closed in March is 19 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of March in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (41) is 46% above the level of March 2021 (28) and it is 64% above the inventory last month (25).  There were 26 new sales for the month of March.  This is 10% below the pace in March 2021 (29) and it is 86% ahead of the pace last month (14).  There is a 1.6 months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace.  The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $400,000 to $783,000 over the past year.  The median was $625,000 for the 21 homes that closed in March.  The homes that closed in the Russian River in March went from listing to pending in 47 days.

Santa Rosa:  Thirty-four percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of March (134) is 46% below the inventory of a year ago (250) and it is 16% above the inventory last month (116).  New sales in March (219) are 12% below the pace of last March (250) and they are 41% above the pace last month (155).  There is a 0.6 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 169 homes closed in March in Santa Rosa was $734,000 compared to $650,000 a year ago.  This is a 13% increase and sets a record high median price for sold homes in Santa Rosa.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in March is 31 days.  

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of March in Sebastopol (24) is slightly above the level of March 2021 (23) and it is 41% above the inventory last month (17).  There were 31 new sales for the month of March.  This is 11% above the pace in March 2021 (28) and it is 94% above the pace last month (16).  There is a 0.8 months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace. The 20 homes that closed in Sebastopol in March went from listing to pending in 51 days.

Sonoma Valley:  The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (61) at the end of March in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 34% below the inventory last March (92) and it is 56% above the inventory of last month (39).  Eighty percent of the available properties in the Sonoma Valley (49) are priced at $1,000,000, or more. There were 50 new sales for the month. This is 25% below the 67 sales in March 2021 and it is 72% ahead of the 29 sales last month.  There is a 1.2 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  The average Days on Market for the 36 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in March is 33 days.  The closings in the month had a selling price equal to 105% of the original listing price – a return to the level that was experienced last May.  In March, 72% of the homes in the Sonoma Valley sold at a price in excess of the original list price and just 11% of the homes had a reduction in price before they sold.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of March starts at a record high $4,250,000.  Twenty-two homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 17 in the twelve months prior to that.  In March, there were five new sales in this quartile.  There are 15 homes available in this quartile in March 2022 compared to 10 a year ago and 8 last month. Based on the current sales pace, the months of inventory is 3 months.  The days on market for the one home that closed in March in this quartile is just 11 days.

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of March is 18 properties.  This is 28% below the inventory in March 2021 (25) and it is 37% ahead of the 13 homes in inventory last month.  There were 34 sales in the month.  This is essentially equal to the pace of sales in March 2021 (35) and it is 62% ahead of the pace of last month (21).  There is a 0.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The days on market for the 25 homes that closed in March 2021 in Windsor is 25 days.  The median price ($812,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in March is 6% above the median price a year ago ($765,000) and sets a new high median price for sales for any month in Windsor.

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of March is just 20 homes.  This is the lowest inventory for mobile homes that we have seen.  It is 65% below the number of mobile homes available in March 2021 (57) and it is 38% below the number of available mobile homes last month (32).  There were 32 new mobile home sales in March.  This is 14% below the pace of sales in March 2021 (37) and it is essentially equal to the pace of sales last month (33).  There is a 0.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 37 mobile homes closed in March is 74 days and the median price was $200,000.  This median price is 23% ahead of the median price of $162,000 in March 2021.  

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of March is 242 properties. The current inventory is 13% below the number of lots in March 2021 (278) and it is equal to the number of available lots last month (242). There were 51 new lot sales in March.  This is 24% below the pace of sales in March 2021 (67) and it is 76% above the pace of lot sales last month (29).  There is a 4.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 37 lots closed in March is 137 days and the median price is $350,000.   

Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of March (182) is 13% below the inventory in March 2021 (208) and it is 21% above the inventory last month (150).  Seventy-six percent of the inventory in Napa County (139 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above.   New sales (129) are 22% below the pace of last year (106) and are 23% above the 105 sales last month.  There is a 1.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 57 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the113 homes closed in March in Napa County ($950,000) is 19% above the median price of a year ago ($795,000) and is a record new median sold price for any month in Napa County.  Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 97% of original list price.

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $4,750,000 in Napa County at this time.  There has been an increase of 17% for the number of closings (42) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $4,750,000) in Napa County for the period 4/1/21 to 3/31/22 compared to 36 closings in the period 4/1/20 to 3/31/21.  There are 46 luxury homes in inventory at the end of March 2022 compared to 37 homes in inventory at the end of March 2021 and 40 last month. There were five new Luxury Home sales in March compared to 4 last year and five last month.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 87% of original list price.

American Canyon:  There are 8 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of March in American Canyon. Last year at this time there were 5 homes in inventory and there were 6 homes in inventory last month.  There were 11 new sales in the month.  This compares to 6 new homes sales last March and 5 new sales last month.  There is a 0.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for 5 homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 23 days. The median price of the homes that closed in American Canyon in March ($885,000) is 18% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($753,000).  This is the highest median price that we’ve seen for any month in American Canyon.  The average price per square foot of the homes sold in American Canyon was at $316 last month.  This is in the $300 to $400 per square foot range where the sales have been over the past several years.

Napa:  Forty-six percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 84 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of March in the City of Napa. This is 23% below the supply at the end of March 2021 (110) and it is 17% above the inventory at the end of last month (72).  New sales (88) were 27% below the pace of March 2021 (121) and they were 26% above the pace of last month (70). There is a 1.0 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 76 closings last month is 54 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in March was $950,000. This is 19% above the median price of the homes closed in March 2021 ($795,000).

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of March (72) is 7% below the level of 78 in March 2021 and it is 20% above the inventory last month (60).  There were 21 new sales this month compared to 31 a year ago and 24 last month.  There is now a 3.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 26 closings last month is 71 days.  Fifty percent of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $4,750,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (23 homes). There was one luxury home (price in excess of $5,000,000) closing in the Up Valley Market last month and there were three new luxury home sales.  

In Angwin in March, inventory was 7 homes compared to 18 a year ago and 7 last month.  There were 3 new sales in Angwin for the month compared to 4 a year ago and 1 last month.  The average price of the active listings in Angwin as of March 2022 is $2,849,000.

Mobile Homes in Napa County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of March is just 8 homes.  This is 58% below the number of mobile homes available in March 2021 (19) and it is 37% below the 13 available homes last month.  There were 17 new mobile home sales in March.  This compares to 10 home sales last March and 16 sales last month.  There is a 0.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The average days on market of the 16 mobile homes closed in March is 93 days and the median price was $256,000.  This compares to a median price of $185,000 in March 2021 and $239,000 last month.  The median price of sold mobile homes in Napa seems to vary quite a bit from month to month.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of March stands at 214.  This is 96% above the inventory in March 2021 (108) and it is 17% above the inventory last month (183).  New sales (88) in Mendocino County in March were 44% above the pace of March 2021 (61) and they were 96% above the pace last month (45).  There now is a 2.4 months supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 54 homes sold in Mendocino County in March is 86 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the homes closed in March in Mendocino County was $501,000. This is slightly below the median price in March 2021 ($510,000).  

Ukiah:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of March in Ukiah is 32 homes.  This is 23% above the level of March 2021 (26) and it is 28% above the inventory last month (25).  There were 34 new sales for the month of March.  This is 36% above the number of sales in March 2021 (25) and it is 55% ahead of the sales last month (22).  It is the highest number of new sales that we have seen in any month in Ukiah in recent history.  There is 0.9 months of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 27 closings last month is 102 days.  The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from $370,000 to $528,000. The median price was $490,000 for the homes that closed in March.

Hopland and Talmage:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of March in Hopland and Talmage is 7 homes.  This compares to 6 homes in inventory at the end of March 2021 and 7 homes in inventory last month.  There were 4 new sales for the month of March.  This compares to 3 sales in March 2021 and 2 new sales last month.  There were 3 closings in the Talmage-Hopland market last month with an average Days on Market of 47 days.

Redwood Valley and Calpella:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of March in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 16 homes.  This compares to 9 homes in March 2021 and 11 homes last month.  There were 8 new sales for the month of March.  This compares to 2 sales in March 2021 and 3 new sales last month.  There is a 2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $725,000.  There were 6 closings in Redwood Valley/Calpella in March at a median price of $647,000 and the homes sold in 91 days. 

Lake County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Lake County at the end of March stands at 387.  Approximately 30% of the inventory (114 homes) is in the communities of Clearlake.  The inventory is 62% above the inventory in March 2021 (239) and it is 24% above the inventory last month (312). Closed sales (121) in Lake County in March were 19% above the pace of March 2021 (102) and they were 48% ahead of the pace last month (82).  There now is a 4 months supply of inventory in Lake County based on the existing sales pace.  The median Days on Market for the homes sold in Lake County in March is 41 days.  Usually “Days on Market” are traced from listing date to pending date, so the closing date would be somewhat longer.  The median price of the homes closed in March in Lake County was $320,000. This is 7% ahead of the median price in March 2021 ($300,000).  The homes sold in Lake County last month sold at 97% of original list price.

Marin County:  Marin County is often considered a “feeder” county to our North Bay Wine Country markets.  Marin County’s inventory (185 homes) is 24% below the 242 homes in March 2021 and it is 34% above the 138 homes in inventory last month.  New sales (251) were 17% below the number last March (302) and were 26% above the pace of last month (200).  This creates a 0.7 months supply.  The median price of the 209 homes sold in Marin County in March is $1,527,000.  This is 13% above the median price a year ago ($1,350,000).