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Wine Country Real Estate Trends in September 2020

10/13/2020 | Bridge Coaching | Uncategorized

Wine Country Real Estate Market Overview

Real Estate in parts of eastern Santa Rosa, the upper Sonoma Valley and Up Valley Napa were all heavily impacted by the “Glass Fire” that began on 9/27/20. We will have to wait to see how our markets were affected by this tragedy that destroyed another 80 homes in our region. Smoke conditions were extremely bad across the region until, at least, 10/7/20 and key roads remained closed much of that time. Our hearts go out to those directly affected by this latest fire in Wine Country.

Real estate sales remained very active in all Wine Country Markets in September on a year over year basis, however, they were typically below last month’s numbers. It may be that we had our “Spring Market” through the May to September period and now we are entering a slower “Summer” market for a time. We do usually get a boost in sales in the early Fall with sales dropping as we approach Thanksgiving. With COVID and fires, this is obviously not a normal year. Prices are up in Sonoma, Napa and Mendocino Counties for the month. We still have no Open Houses and showings are by appointment only with strict cleaning protocols between showings.

I was introduced to a new statistic for watching the direction and strength of real estate markets. I call it the “Price Reduction Ratio”. Across the country, one might expect that 30 to 35% of the homes put in the MLS to sell will have a price reduction before they eventually sell. For September 2020, of all closed homes in Sonoma County, 29% had price reductions before selling. In Napa, the ratio was 33% and in Mendocino County it was 25%. Conversely, the ratio of homes selling in excess of Original List Price was 40% in Sonoma County, 33% in Napa County and 25% in Mendocino County. Upward or downward movement in these ratios will be a future market indicator.

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for September 2020

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group enjoyed 85 closings in September 2020 compared to 55 last September and 62 last month. In September, we closed homes with a total value of $56 million compared to $34.5 million last year and $48.7 million last month. The average selling price of the properties sold by BHGRE|WCG in September was $658,976.

BHGRE|WCG currently has 75 pending sales with a value of $63 million dollars. We are 50% ahead of our volume last year. We have 73 active listings with a value of $74 million dollars. Our average listing price is $1,014,000. This is 28% ahead of last year’s average.

Congratulations to the following agents who had closings in the month of September:

Catherine Carmody (9); The Oscar-Koppelman Team (8); The Ramos Team (6); Sheila Deignan (6); Trudy Ramos (5); Mary Jansen (4); Mara Kahn (3); Liz Manfree (3); Parmeeta Ghoman (3); Linda Alioto (3); Laurie Parris (2); Mari Giblin (2); Julie Etchell (2); Dan Gallagher (2); Rebecca Nichols (2); Zebi Bojarski (2); Amy Wray (2); Mike Caselli (2); Leo Merle (2); Rianne Pasquariello (2); Barbara Cronick (2); Mireya Nelson; Silvia Schager; Juliet Casazza; Martha Saly; Freddie Diaz; Daniel Galvin; Ryan Gourd; David Barker; Chelsie Runnings; Oak Senvardarli; Herb Heil; Barbara Cimino; Del Nordby; Michael Crain; and Patricia Vance.

Also, congratulations to our 3^rdQuarter Top Producers:

Santa Rosa/Petaluma: Top Units Sold: Gina Fisicaro

Top Dollar Volume: Mireya Nelson

Top New Listing: Team Ramos

Wine Country Real Estate Trends for September 2020

(Note: Trendgraphix, the source for the data on which I rely, changed some fields last month and will be changing them again – so these reports may have some erratic nature to them for a month or two. I believe that they can be relied upon to take a macro view of each of our markets.)

Sonoma County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of September stands at 718. This is 42% below the inventory in September 2019 (1,238) and it is 3% below the inventory last month (737). There is a 1.2 months supply of inventory. This is the lowest level of inventory for Sonoma County for the month of September that we have ever experienced. New sales (580) in Sonoma County in September were 21% above the pace of September 2019 (480) and they were 9% below the pace last month (637). The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 79 (Rohnert Park) to 135 (Coastal Sonoma) days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 96 days. The median price of the 583 homes closed in September in Sonoma County was $700,000. This is 12% above the median price in September 2019 ($625,000). This is the first time that the median price of homes sold in Sonoma County has reached the $700,000 level since we have records. Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at roughly 98% of their original list price.

Sonoma County Luxury Homes: About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,500,000). Because of accelerated activity in the past four months, there has been an 31% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (353) from 10/1/19 to 9/30/20 compared to 269 closings in the period 10/1/18 to 9/30/19. The inventory of luxury homes (187) is 28% below the inventory in September 2019 (256 homes). The pace of new sales (52) in September this year is 117% ahead of the pace of a year ago (24) and it is 5.5% behind the pace last month (55). The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 107 days this September compared to 96 days a year ago. This compares to 96 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in September. There is a 3.5 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 1.2 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market. Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 95% of original list price.

Cloverdale: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (34) in Cloverdale at the end of September is 13% below the inventory in September 2019 (39). It is 913/5 above the inventory last month (30). There were 15 new sales in Cloverdale in September. This compares to 12 sales in September 2019 and 19 new sales last month. There is a 2.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 12 homes that closed in September was 106 days.

Coastal Sonoma: There are only 4 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point). This compares to 27 homes in inventory in September 2019 and 3 homes last month. There essentially are no homes to purchase there. There were 8 new sales in September compared to 3 a year ago and 14 last month. There is now a 0.5 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 15 homes that closed in September was 135 days. Between COVID-19, hot weather and fires – the Sonoma coast seems to be a popular place to be.

Healdsburg Trends: There are 75 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month. This is 42% below the inventory in September 2019 (129) and it is slightly below the inventory last month (77). New sales in September (29) were 141% ahead of the pace of sales in September 2019 (12) and they were just below the sales pace last month (30). The months of available inventory is now 2.6 months based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 30 homes that closed in September was 113 days.

Oakmont: There are 40 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of September. This is 25% below the inventory in September 2019 (53) and it is 17% below the inventory last month (48). New sales (24) were 50% ahead of the sales pace of a year ago (16) and 26% ahead of the pace of last month (19). There is a 1.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high-$500,000’s up to $800,000. The median price was $680,000 for the 20 homes that closed in September. The Days on Market for the homes that closed in September was 103 days.

Petaluma: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of September (53) is 51% below the inventory in September 2019 (107) and it is 10% below the inventory last month (59). There were 66 new sales for the month. This is 6% below the sales in September 2019 (70) and it is 22% ahead of the new sales pace last month (54). The Petaluma market currently has 0.8 months supply of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 53 homes that closed in September was $800,000. This is 10% ahead of the median price last September ($725,000). The Days on Market for the homes that closed in September was 85 days.

Rohnert Park: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of September (20) is 72% below the inventory in September 2019 (72) and it is 29% below the inventory last month (28). There were 40 new sales in Rohnert Park in September even though the month started with an inventory of just 28 homes. This sales pace is 21% ahead of the 33 sales in September 2019 and it is 30% below the sales last month (57). There is a 0.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. This is the lowest supply of inventory in any of our Wine Country markets. The median price ($649,000) of the 45 homes and condominiums that closed in September is 21% ahead of the median price a year ago ($538,000). Days on Market for the homes that closed in September was 79 days.

Russian River: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of September in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (47) is 48% below the level of September 2019 (91) and it is 81% ahead of the inventory last month (26). There were 22 new sales for the month of September. This is 24% below the pace in September 2019 (29) and it is 27% below the pace last month (30). There is a 2.1 months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace. The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $400,000 to the mid $500,000s over the past year. The median was $585,000 for the 30 homes that closed in September. The homes that closed in the Russian River in September went from listing to pending in 95 days.

Santa Rosa: Forty percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa. The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of September (285) is 33% below the inventory of a year ago (422) and it is 12% below the inventory last month (323). New sales in September (256) are 33% ahead of the pace of last September (192) and they are 3% below the pace last month (263). There is a 1.1 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 232 homes closed in September in Santa Rosa was $647,000 compared to $578,000 a year ago – a 12% increase. The Days on Market for the homes that closed in September was 90 days.

Sebastopol Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of September in Sebastopol (38) is 49% below the level of September 2019 (74) and it is 19% above the inventory last month (32). There were 29 new sales for the month of September. This is 9% below the pace in September 2019 (32) and it is 28% below the pace last month (40). There is a 1.3 months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace. The 38 homes that closed in Sebastopol in September went from listing to pending in 92 days.

Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (108) at the end of September in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 31% below the inventory last September (156) and it is 5% above the inventory of last month (103). There were 51 new sales for the month. This is 46% above the 35 sales in September 2019 and it is 23% below the 66 sales last month. There is a 2.1 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales. The average Days on Market for the 58 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in September is 117 days. Sixty-three percent (68 properties) of the inventory in the Sonoma Valley is priced at $1,000,000 or above and 39% of the new sales (20) in September were priced at over $1,000,000.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of September starts at $2,800,000. Fifty homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 15 in the twelve months prior to that. There was a strong surge in top quartile sales in May, June September and August but that dropped off in September to just 3 new sales. There are 28 homes available in this quartile in September 2020 compared to 39 a year ago and 26 last month. Based on the current sales pace, the months of inventory went from 21 to 7 between April and September.

Windsor: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of September equals 25 properties. This is 49% below the inventory in September 2019 (49) and it is 9% above the 23 homes last month. There were 29 new sales for the month. This is 15% below the pace of sales in September 2019 (34) and it is 19% below the pace of last month (36). There is a 0.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The days on market for the 40 homes that closed in September in Windsor was 102 days. The median price ($703,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in September is 12% ahead of the median price a year ago ($627,000).

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County: The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of September is 362 properties. This is 31% below the number of lots in September 2019 (523) and it is 5% below the 381 lots last month. There were 47 new lot sales in September. This is 4% above the pace of sales in September 2019 (45) and it is 15% below the pace of lot sales last month (55). There is a 7.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The average days on market of the 41 lots closed in September was 195 days and the median price was $260,000 – 9% below the median price a year ago ($285,000).

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County: The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of September is 91 homes. This is 8% below the number of mobile homes available in September 2019 (99) and it is 3% below the number of available mobile homes last month (94). There were 44 new mobile home sales in September. This is 26% above the pace of sales in September 2019 (35) and it is 29% ahead of the pace of sales last month (34). There is a 2.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The average days on market of the 29 mobile homes closed in September was 161 days and the median price was $129,000. This median price is 8% below the median price of $140,000 in September 2019.

Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of September (309) is 37% below the inventory in September 2019 (491) and it is 4% above the inventory last month (297). Sixty-four percent of the inventory in Napa County (198 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above. New sales (162) are 26% ahead of the pace of last year (129) and are 13% below the 187 sales last month. There is a 1.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace compared to a 3.8 months supply last year. The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 106 days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The median price of the 171 homes closed in September in Napa County ($815,000) is 6% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($782,000). Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 94% of original list price.

Napa County Luxury Homes: If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $3,500,000 in Napa County at this time. This is a up from the $3,000,000 in August and $2,700,000 in June. The number of closings (49) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $3,500,000) in Napa County for the period 10/1/19 to 9/30/20 compared to 35 closings in the period 10/1/18 to 9/30/19. There are 76 luxury homes in inventory at the end of September 2020 compared to 79 at the end of September 2019. There were 8 new Luxury Home sales in September compared to 6 last year and 11 last month. This results in a 9.5 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to a 1.9 months supply for the County as a whole. Days on market for the 10 luxury homes sales in September was 173 days. Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 89% of original list price.

American Canyon: There are just 12 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of September in American Canyon. This is 40% below the inventory a year ago (20) and it is 20% above the supply last month (10). New sales (20) are 100% ahead of the pace of last year (10) and 82% ahead of the 11 sales last month. There is a 0.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 9 homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 68 days. The median price of the homes that closed in American Canyon in September ($625,000) is 25% above the median price of a year ago ($500,000). The average price per square foot of the homes sold in American Canyon remains in the $250 to $310 range. It remains a very tight market in American Canyon.

Napa: Fifty-three percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa. There are 163 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of September in the City of Napa. This is 35% below the supply at the end of September 2019 (252) and it is 14% above the inventory at the end of last month (143). New sales (98) were 2% ahead of the pace of September 2019 (96) and they were 26% below the pace of last month (132). There is a 1.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 122 closings last month was 102 days. The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in September was $813,000. This is 9% above the median price of the homes closed in September 2019 ($748,000).

Up Valley Napa County: Up Valley Napa real estate ground to a halt beginning 9/27/20 with the outbreak of the “Glass Fire” in the area. It will be interesting to see how the October results reflect this latest fire in our region. The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of September (121) is 30% below the level of 172 in September 2019 and it is 8% below the inventory last month (132). There were 42 new sales this month compared to 18 a year ago and 40 last month. There is now a 2.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 36 closings last month was 117 days. Approximately 66% of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $3,500,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (50 homes). There were 5 luxury home (price in excess of $3,500,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month and there were 6 new luxury home sales.

Angwin: Angwin was heavily affected by the “Glass Fire” that broke out on 9/27/20. We do not yet have a clear picture of the affect on the real estate market there. As of 9/30/20, the inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Angwin was 8 homes. This compares to 14 homes in September 2019 and 8 homes last month. There were two new sales in the month of September compared to one a year ago and five last month. The average asking price of the 8 homes in inventory in Angwin is $2,108,000.

Mobile Homes in Napa County: The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of September is 35 homes. This is 29% below the number of mobile homes available in September 2019 (49) and it is equal to available homes last month. There were 13 new mobile home sales in September. This is 24% below the pace of sales in September 2019 (17) and it is slightly below the pace of sales last month (14). There is a 2.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The average days on market of the 16 mobile homes closed in September was 93 days and the median price was $219,000. This is 8% above median price of $203,000 in September 2019.

Mendocino County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of September stands at 157. This is 53% below the inventory in September 2019 (334) and it is 2% above the inventory last month (154). New sales (88) in Mendocino County in September were 21% ahead of the pace of September 2019 (73) and they were 16% ahead of the pace last month (76). There now is a 1.8 months supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace. The average Days on Market for the 63 homes sold in Mendocino County in September is 120 days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The median price of the homes closed in September in Mendocino County was $511,000. This is 25% ahead of the median price in September 2019 ($410,000).

Ukiah: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of September in Ukiah is 31 homes. This is 46% below the level of September 2019 (57) and it is slightly below the inventory last month (32). There were 26 new sales for the month of September. This is 10% below the number of sales in September 2019 (29) and it is 7% below the sales last month (28). There is now 1.2 months of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 21 closings last month was 95 days. The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from $370,000 to $475,000. The median price was $485,000 for the homes that closed in September – setting a new high.

Hopland and Talmage: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of September in Hopland and Talmage is 8 homes. This is 50% below the inventory of September 2019 (16) and it is 39% below the inventory last month. There were three new sales for the month of September. This compares to one sale in September 2019 and three new sales last month. There is a 2.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. One home closed in September in Hopland/Talmage with a Days on Market period of 50 days.

Redwood Valley and Calpella: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of September in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 10 homes. This is 47% below the level of September 2019 (19) and it is 29% below the inventory last month (14). There were 7 new sales for the month of September. This compares to 6 sales in September 2019 and 4 new sales last month. There is a 1.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $655,000. In September of this year they reached $570,000.

Marin County: Marin County’s inventory (446 homes) is 22% below the 574 homes in September 2019 and it is 12% above the 398 homes in inventory last month. New sales (324) were 22% ahead of the number last September (265) and were essentially equal to the pace of last month (325). This creates a 1.4 months supply. The median price of the 323 homes sold in Marin County in September was $1,425,000. This is 21% ahead of the median price a year ago ($1,180,000) but it equals the median price of last month.

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Wine Country Real Estate Trends in September 2020

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