Wine Country Real Estate Trends in October 2020

Wine Country Real Estate Market Overview

We are seeing more of a return to a seasonal market in Wine Country with sales falling on a month over month basis.  They still remain relatively high to a year ago. Inventory is starting to more closely mirror inventory from a year ago.  Though inventory is down from 26% (Sonoma Co.) to 51% (Mendocino County) the number of new listings over the past twelve months has been down only slightly (-3% in Sonoma Co).  So the lack of inventory has come from higher demand.  We have retreated from the high sales activity that we experienced from May through August and will likely see that continue through the winter season. With COVID and fires, this is obviously not a normal year.  Prices continue the high levels achieved this summer.  We still have no Open Houses and showings are by appointment only with strict cleaning protocols between showings.

I was introduced to a new statistic for watching the direction and strength of real estate markets.  I call it the “Price Reduction Ratio”.  Across the country, one might expect that 30 to 35% of the homes put into the MLS to sell will have a price reduction before they eventually sell. For October 2020, of all closed homes in Sonoma County, 25% had price reductions before selling.  In Napa, the ratio was 27% and in Mendocino County it was 22%.  Conversely, the ratio of homes selling in excess of Original List Price was 43% in Sonoma County, 42% in Napa County and 32% in Mendocino County.  Upward or downward movement in these ratios will be a future market indicator.  

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for October 2020 

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group enjoyed 57 closings in October 2020 compared to 55 last October and 85 last month.  In October, we closed homes with a total value of $34.7 million compared to $33.3 million last year and $56 million last month.  The average selling price of the properties sold by BHGRE|WCG in October was $608,592.   

BHGRE|WCG currently has 68 pending sales with a value of $46 million dollars.  We are 48% ahead of our volume last year.  We have 82 active listings with a value of $74 million dollars.  Our average listing price is $902,000.  This is 10% ahead of last year’s average. 

Congratulations to the following agents who had closings in the month of October:

Sheila Deignan (6); Parmeeta Ghoman (4); Mari Giblin (4); The Oscar-Koppelman Team (3);  Monica Kangas (3); Catherine Carmody (2); Linda Alioto (2); Rianne Pasquariello (2); Barbara Cronick (2); Mike Caselli (2); Sophie Phelps (2); Terry Bell (2); Bill Cole (2); Liz Uribe (2); Laurie Parris; Amy Wray; Jennifer Carollo; Eric Garbocci; Caroly Towon; Heather Thurber; Randy Knight; Kendra Martin; Liz Manfree; Dan and Danny Cronin; Melinda Scalese and Amanda Rivano.

Wine Country Real Estate Trends for October 2020

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of October stands at 833.  This is 26% below the inventory in October 2019 (1,129) and it is 16% above the inventory last month (718).  There is a 1.6 months supply of inventory.  New sales (525) in Sonoma County in October were 27% above the pace of October 2019 (414) and they were 5% below the pace last month (553).  The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 62 (Windsor) to 124 (Cloverdale) days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 87 days.  The median price of the 583 homes closed in October in Sonoma County was $700,000.  This is 11% above the median price in October 2019 ($630,000).  This is only the second time that the median price of homes sold in Sonoma County has reached the $700,000 level since we have records.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 98% of their original list price. 

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,500,000).  Because of accelerated activity in the past five months, there has been an 52% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (379) from 11/1/19 to 10/31/20 compared to 249 closings in the period 11/1/18 to 10/31/19. The inventory of luxury homes (200) is 17% below the inventory in October 2019 (242 homes).  The pace of new sales (41) in October this year is 116% ahead of the pace of a year ago (19) and it is 15% behind the pace last month (48).  The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 130 days this October compared to 81 days a year ago. This compares to 87 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in October.  There is a 4.9 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 1.6 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market. Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 95% of original list price.

Cloverdale:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (39) in Cloverdale at the end of October is 18% ahead of the inventory in October 2019 (33). It is 15% above the inventory last month (34).  There were 12 new sales in Cloverdale in October.  This compares to 11 sales in October 2019 and 12 new sales last month.  There is a 3.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 11 homes that closed in October was 124 days.

Coastal Sonoma:  There are only 5 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This compares to 28 homes in inventory in October 2019 and 4 homes last month.  There essentially are no homes to purchase in Coastal Sonoma.  There were 8 new sales in October compared to 6 a year ago and 7 last month.  There is now a 0.6 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 6 homes that closed in October was 66 days. Between COVID-19, hot weather and fires – the Sonoma coast seems to be a popular place to be.

Healdsburg Trends:  There are 87 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month.  This is 25% below the inventory in October 2019 (116) and it is 16% above the inventory last month (75).  New sales in October (24) were 20% ahead of the pace of sales in October 2019 (20) and they were 11% below the sales pace last month (27).  The months of available inventory is now 3.6 months based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 23 homes that closed in October was 113 days.  

Oakmont: There are 49 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of October.  This is 6% below the inventory in October 2019 (52) and it is 23% above the inventory last month (40).  New sales (15) were 25% ahead of the sales pace of a year ago (12) and 29% below the pace of last month (21).  There is a 3.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high-$500,000’s up to $800,000.  The median price was $692,000 for the 16 homes that closed in October.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in October was 114 days.  

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of October (64) is 36% below the inventory in October 2019 (100) and it is 21% above the inventory last month (53).  There were 54 new sales for the month.  This is 12% below the sales in October 2019 (61) and it is 18% below the new sales pace last month (66).  The Petaluma market currently has 1.2 months supply of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 62 homes that closed in October was $753,000. This is 13% ahead of the median price last October ($665,000).  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in October was 69 days.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of October (35) is 36% below the inventory in October 2019 (55) and it is 75% ahead of the inventory last month (20).  There were 45 new sales in Rohnert Park in October even though the month started with an inventory of just 20 homes.  This sales pace is 10% ahead of the 41 sales in October 2019 and it is 13% ahead of the sales last month (40).  There is a 0.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  This is the lowest supply of inventory in any of our Wine Country markets.  The median price ($622,000) of the 41 homes and condominiums that closed in October is 7.4% ahead of the median price a year ago ($579,000).  Days on Market for the homes that closed in October was 96 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of October in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (46) is 40% below the level of October 2019 (77) and it is essentially equal to the inventory last month (47).  There were 39 new sales for the month of October. This is 95% ahead of the pace in October 2019 (20) and it is 77% ahead of the pace last month (22).  There is a 1.2 months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace. The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $400,000 to the mid $500,000s over the past year. The median was $531,000 for the 30 homes that closed in October.  The homes that closed in the Russian River in October went from listing to pending in 88 days.

Santa Rosa:  Thirty-nine percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of October (327) is 16% below the inventory of a year ago (390) and it is 15% ahead of the inventory last month (285).  New sales in October (184) are 11% ahead of the pace of last October (166) and they are 22% below the pace last month (237).  There is a 1.8 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 212 homes closed in October in Santa Rosa was $648,000 compared to $590,000 a year ago – a 10% increase. The Days on Market for the homes that closed in October was 91 days.  

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of October in Sebastopol (46) is 27% below the level of October 2019 (63) and it is 21% above the inventory last month (38). There were 43 new sales for the month of October.  This is 139% ahead of the pace in October 2019 (18) and it is 59% ahead of the pace last month (27).  There is a 1.1 months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace.  The 31 homes that closed in Sebastopol in October went from listing to pending in 97 days.

Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (109) at the end of October in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 28% below the inventory last October (152) and it is essentially equal to the inventory of last month (108).   There were 64 new sales for the month. This is 129% above the 28 sales in October 2019 and it is 19% above the 54 sales last month.  There is a 1.7 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  The average Days on Market for the 51 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in October is 95 days.  Sixty-three percent (69 properties) of the inventory in the Sonoma Valley is priced at $1,000,000 or above and 44% of the new sales (28) in October were priced at over $1,000,000.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of October starts at $2,900,000.  Thirty-seven homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 17 in the twelve months prior to that.  Twenty-five of those 37 closings occurred in the three months of June, July and August. There was a strong surge in top quartile sales in May, June July and August (36) but that dropped off in October to just one new sale.  There are 28 homes available in this quartile in October 2020 compared to 38 a year ago and 25 last month. Based on the current sales pace, the months of inventory went from about 3.0 to 28 between this summer and last month.

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of October equals 42 properties.  This is 9% below the inventory in October 2019 (46) and it is 68% above the 25 homes last month.  There were 32 new sales for the month.  This is 14% above the pace of sales in October 2019 (28) and it is 23% above the pace of last month (26).  There is a 1.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The days on market for the 29 homes that closed in October in Windsor was 62 days.  The median price ($665,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in October is 1.5% ahead of the median price a year ago ($655,000).  

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County: The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of October is 366 properties.  This is 27% below the number of lots in October 2019 (500) and it is essentially equal to the 362 lots last month.  There were 56 new lot sales in October.  This is 33% above the pace of sales in October 2019 (42) and it is 24% ahead of the pace of lot sales last month (45).  There is a 6.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The average days on market of the 53 lots closed in October was 162 days and the median price was $325,000 – 23% ahead of the median price a year ago ($265,000).

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County: The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of October is 91 homes.  This is 12% below the number of mobile homes available in October 2019 (103) and it is equal to the number of available mobile homes last month.  There were 46 new mobile home sales in October.  This is 44% above the pace of sales in October 2019 (32) and it is 21% ahead of the pace of sales last month (38).  There is a 2.0 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 40 mobile homes closed in October was 125 days and the median price was $125,000.  This median price is 11% below the median price of $140,000 in October 2019.  

Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of October (305) is 33% below the inventory in October 2019 (454) and it is slightly below the inventory last month (309).  Sixty-three percent of the inventory in Napa County (191 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above.   New sales (133) are 19% ahead of the pace of last year (112) and are 16% below the 158 sales last month.  There is a 2.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace compared to a 4.1 months supply last year.  The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 99 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 155 homes closed in October in Napa County ($739,000) is 2% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($725,000). Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 95% of original list price.

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $3,000,000 in Napa County at this time.  The number of closings (66) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $3,000,000) in Napa County for the period 11/1/19 to 10/31/20 compared to 50 closings in the period 11/1/18 to 10/31/19.  There are 75 luxury homes in inventory at the end of October 2020 compared to 86 at the end of October 2019. There were 5 new Luxury Home sales in October compared to 4 last year and 9 last month.  This results in a 15 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to a 2.0 months supply for the County as a whole.  Days on market for the 9 luxury homes sales in October was 159 days.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 91% of original list price.

American Canyon:  There are just 10 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of October in American Canyon. This is 33% below the inventory a year ago (15) and it is 17% below the supply last month (12).  New sales (17) are 21% ahead of the pace of last year (14) and they are equal to the 17 sales last month.  There is a 0.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 17 homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 96 days. The median price of the homes that closed in American Canyon in October ($595,000) is slightly below the median price of a year ago ($600,000).  The average price per square foot of the homes sold in American Canyon remains in the $250 to $315 range.  It remains a very tight market in American Canyon.

Napa:  Fifty-seven percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 175 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of October in the City of Napa. This is 27% below the supply at the end of October 2019 (240) and it is 7% above the inventory at the end of last month (163). New sales (91) were 17% ahead of the pace of October 2019 (78) and they were 7% below the pace of last month (96). There is a 1.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 105 closings last month was 88 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in October was $735,000. This is essentially equal to the median price of the homes closed in October 2019 ($733,000).

Up Valley Napa County:  Up Valley Napa real estate ground to a halt beginning 9/27/20 with the outbreak of the “Glass Fire” in the area.  Inventory fell by 12% and new sales were off 56% from the prior month. The home sales market is upset by the loss of over 113 structures and the need for residents to occupy homes that were otherwise slated to be for sale in the near future.  We expect the market to be disrupted for months to come. As in the 2017 Wine Country wild fires, we will watch to see how many burned lots are brought on the market and how many owners decide to remain and rebuild – a multi-year process.

The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of October (107) is 31% below the level of 156 in October 2019 and it is 12% below the inventory last month (121).  There were 18 new sales this month compared to 16 a year ago and 41 last month.  There is now a 5.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  This is up from a 3 month supply last month.  The Days on Market for the 31 closings last month was 123 days.  Approximately 59% of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $3,000,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (44 homes).  This is down from 66% last month.  There were 5 luxury home (price in excess of $3,000,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month and there were 3 new luxury home sales.

Angwin: Angwin was heavily affected by the “Glass Fire” that broke out on 9/27/20.  Surprisingly, the inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Angwin was 10 homes at the end of October compared to 8 at the end of September and 13 a year ago. There were two new sales in the month of October compared to one a year ago and two last month.  The average asking price of the 10 homes in inventory in Angwin is $2,527,000.

Mobile Homes in Napa County: The mobile home market in Napa County has taken off as some fire victims are purchasing mobile homes as temporary residences while they wait for their insurance matters to be processed.  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of October is 28 homes.  This is 43% below the number of mobile homes available in October 2019 (49) and it is 20% below the available homes last month (35).  There were 20 new mobile home sales in October. This appears to be the highest number of sales for any single month that we have on record.  It is 122% above the pace of sales in October 2019 (9) and it is 67% ahead of the pace of sales last month (12).  There is a 1.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace compared to over a five month supply a year ago.  The average days on market of the 17 mobile homes closed in October was 121 days and the median price was $113,000.  This is 35% below the median price of $175,000 in October 2019.  The median price was $219,000 in September.  So, it appears that the lower priced inventory is being purchased first. 

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of October stands at 150.  This is 51% below the inventory in October 2019 (303) and it is 5% below the inventory last month (157).  New sales (86) in Mendocino County in October were 30% ahead of the pace of October 2019 (66) and they were slightly ahead of the pace last month (84).  There now is a 1.7 months supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 68 homes sold in Mendocino County in October is 102 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the homes closed in October in Mendocino County was $527,000. This is 28% ahead of the median price in October 2019 ($411,000) and it is the highest median price ever recorded for a single month in Mendocino County.  Mendocino County homes seem to be in high demand with prices rising quickly.

Ukiah: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of October in Ukiah is 34 homes.  This is 32% below the level of October 2019 (50) and it is 10% ahead of the inventory last month (31).  There were 18 new sales for the month of October.  This is equal to the number of sales in October 2019 and it is 28% below the sales last month (25).  There is now 1.9 months of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 23 closings last month was 98 days.  The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from $370,000 to $485,000. The median price was $490,000 for the homes that closed in October – setting a new high.

Hopland and Talmage:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of October in Hopland and Talmage is 10 homes.  This is 23% below the inventory of October 2019 (13) and it is 25% ahead of the inventory last month (8).  There were four new sales for the month of October.  This compares to two sales in October 2019 and three new sales last month.  There is a 2.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. Two homes closed in October in Hopland/Talmage with a Days on Market period of 84 days.

Redwood Valley and Calpella: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of October in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 11 homes. This is 35% below the level of October 2019 (17) and it is one home above the inventory last month (10).  There were 6 new sales for the month of October. This compares to 5 sales in October 2019 and 8 new sales last month.  There is a 1.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $655,000.  In October of this year the median reached a new high of $700,000.

Marin County: Marin County’s inventory (448 homes) is 10% below the 496 homes in October 2019 and it is slightly above the 446 homes in inventory last month.  New sales (396) were 51% ahead of the number last October (263) and were 23% ahead of the pace of last month (327).  This creates a 1.1 months supply.  The median price of the 311 homes sold in Marin County in October was $1,390,000.  This is 11% ahead of the median price a year ago ($1,250,000).