Wine Country Real Estate Trends in March 2021

Year Over Year Comparisons

In mid-March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic was declared and all parties were told to “Shelter in Place”.  This basically shut down the residential real estate industry through the month of April 2020.  The market then accelerated rapidly in May through October.  Year over year statistical comparisons are therefore going to be skewed by these market aberrations.  

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for March 2021 

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group enjoyed 48 closings in March 2021 compared to 31 last March and 34 last month.  In March, we closed homes with a total value of $28 million compared to $29 million last year and $25.5 million last month.  The average selling price of the properties sold by BHGRE|WCG in March was $582,898.   

BHGRE|WCG currently has 77 pending sales with a value of $63 million dollars.  We are 120% ahead of our volume last year.  We have 58 active listings with a value of $52 million dollars.  Our average listing price is $897,000.  This is 7% above last year’s average. 

Congratulations to the following agents who had closings in the month of March:

The Oscar-Kopelman Team (5); Rianne Pasquariello (4); Team Ramos (2); Laurie Parris (2); Mari Giblin (2); Erick Rothfeld (2); Zebi Borjarski (2); Robb Ross (2); Leo Merle (2); Liz Uribe; David Barker; Norbert Tennenbaum; Martha Saly; Sheila Deignan; Dan Gallagher; Pam Atchison; Ryan Gourd; Bill McKinley; Randy Knight; Pat Vance; Isaac Raboy; Lisa Borgo; Patty Marken; Amy Wray; Eric Garbocci; Chelsie Runnings; Silvia Schagerer; Matt Vegvary; Michael Crain and Mara Kahn.

And – our top producers for the 1^stQuarter of 2021 are:

Petaluma office:  Parmeeta Ghoman – Units, Dollar Volume and Listings

Santa Rosa office:  Mari Giblin – Units;  Gina Fisacaro – Dollar Volume;  Heather Thurber – Listings

Sebastopol office:  Laurie Parris – Units and Dollar Volume;  Liz Uribe – Listings 

Sonoma office:  The Oscar Kopelman Team – Units, Dollar Volume and Listings

St. Helena office:  Rianne Pasquariello – Units;  Linda Alioto – Dollar Volume; Rianne Pasquariello and David Barker – Listings

Ukiah:  Team Ramos – Units, Dollar Volume and Listings 

North Bay Real Estate Trends for March 2021

For all of the areas covered by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Lake, Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, there is an inventory of 1,450 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of March.  Inventory is 41% below that of a year ago (2,437) and slightly ahead of the inventory last month (1,431).  At times, the inventory has exceeded 10,000 homes in the BAREIS region.  There were 1,858 sales for the month of March.  This number is 72% above a year ago (1,082) and 34% above last month (1,386).  

I have been following a data point I call the “Price Reduction Ratio”.  Across the country, one might expect that 30 to 35% of the homes put into the MLS to sell will have a price reduction before they eventually sell.  For March 2021, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, the range was from 17.5% (Mendocino County) to 21% (Napa County). Conversely, the ratio of homes selling in excess of Original List Price ranged from 37% (Mendocino) to 54% (Sonoma County).  

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of March stands at 574.  This is 23% below the inventory in March 2020 (745) and it is 7.5% above the inventory last month (534). New sales (667) in Sonoma County in March were 118% ahead of the pace of March 2020 (306) and they were 38% above the pace last month (485).  There is a 0.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 24 (Russian River) to 138 (Cloverdale) days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 53 days.  The median price of the 503 homes closed in March in Sonoma County was $720,000. This is 13% above the median price in March 2020 ($635,000).  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 99% of their original list price.  

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,800,000).  There has been a 115% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (339) from 4/1/20 to 3/31/21 compared to 158 closings in the period 4/1/19 to 3/31/20. The inventory of luxury homes (141) is 28% ahead of the inventory in March 2020 (110 homes).  The pace of new sales (48) in March this year is 336% ahead of the pace of a year ago (11) and it is 66% above the pace last month (29).  The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 62 days this March compared to 83 days a year ago. This compares to 53 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in March.  There is a 2.9 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 0.9 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 97% of original list price.

Cloverdale:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (22) in Cloverdale at the end of March is 4% below the inventory in March 2020 (23) and it is 16% above the inventory of last month (19).  There were 15 new sales in Cloverdale in March.  This compares to 9 sales in March 2020 and 6 new sales last month. There is a 1.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 6 homes that closed in March was 138 days.

Coastal Sonoma:  There are 5 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This compares to 17 homes in inventory in March 2020 and 5 homes last month.  There were 8 new sales in March compared to 4 a year ago and 5 last month.  There is now a 0.5 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 4 homes that closed in March was 39 days. The coastal area continues to be a favored destination with a very tight market.

Healdsburg Trends:  There are 58 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month.  This is 16% below the inventory in March 2020 (69) and it is 4% ahead of the inventory last month (56).  New sales in March (33) were 200% ahead of the pace of sales in March 2020 (11) and they were equal to the sales pace last month (33).  This is the highest level of sales in Healdsburg since last summer.  The months of available inventory went from 5.9 months in November to 1.8 months at the end of March based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 30 homes that closed in March was 83 days.  

Oakmont: There are 47 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of March.  This is 21% above the inventory in March 2020 (39) and it is essentially equal to the inventory of last month (46).  New sales (31) were 244% above the sales pace of a year ago (9) and 48% above the pace of last month (21).  There is a 1.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high $500,000’s up to $800,000.  The median price was $577,000 for the 13 homes that closed in March.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in March was 59 days.  

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of March (37) is 29% below the inventory in March 2020 (52) and it is slightly below the inventory last month (38).  There were 78 new sales for the month.  This is the highest level of sales for any month since last June.  It is 116% ahead of the sales in March 2020 (36) and it is 66% ahead of the sales pace last month (47).  This is the fifth month in a row where new sales have been higher than the existing inventory going into the month.  The Petaluma market currently has 0.5 months supply of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 54 homes that closed in March was $795,000.  This is slightly ahead of the median price last March ($791,000).  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in March was 42 days.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of March (22) is 35% below the inventory in March 2020 (34) and it is 38% ahead of the inventory last month (16).  There were 56 new sales in Rohnert Park in March – the highest number for any month since last August.  This sales pace is 155% ahead of the 22 sales in March 2020 and it is 40% ahead of the sales last month (40).  This is the tenth month in a row where sales were in excess of the inventory at the beginning of the month.  In March, the month started with 16 available properties and there were 56 sales in the month.  There is a 0.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  This is the tightest market in Wine Country.  The median price ($560,000) of the 45 homes and condominiums that closed in March is 3% ahead of the median price in March a year ago ($545,000).  Days on Market for the homes that closed in March is 40 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of March in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (28) is 24% below the level of March 2020 (37) and it is 17% above the inventory last month (24).  There were 33 new sales for the month of March. This is 313% ahead of the pace in March 2020 (8) and it is 120% above the pace last month (15).  There is a 0.8 months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace. The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $400,000 to the high $500,000s over the past year. The median was $525,000 for the 13 homes that closed in March.  The homes that closed in the Russian River in March went from listing to pending in 24 days.

Santa Rosa:  Forty-four percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of March (250) is 16% below the inventory of a year ago (297) and it is 5% above the inventory last month (238). New sales in March (273) are 98% above the pace of last March (138) and they are 26% above the pace last month (217).  There is a 0.9 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 219 homes closed in March in Santa Rosa was $650,000 compared to $604,000 a year ago.  This is an 8% increase.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in March was 50 days.  

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of March in Sebastopol (23) is 41% below the level of March 2020 (39) and it is slightly below the inventory last month (24). There were 31 new sales for the month of March.  This is 107% ahead of the pace in March 2020 (15) and it is 29% ahead of the pace last month (24).  There is a 0.7 months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace. The 31 homes that closed in Sebastopol in March went from listing to pending in 74 days.

Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (92) at the end of March in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 14% below the inventory last March (107) and it is 21% ahead of the inventory of last month (76).   Seventy-four percent of the available properties in the Sonoma Valley are priced at $1,000,000, or more. There were 71 new sales for the month. This is 137% ahead of the 30 sales in March 2020 and it is 78% ahead of the 40 sales last month.  There is a 1.3 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  The average Days on Market for the 48 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in March is 59 days.  The 48 closings in the month had a selling price equal to 98% of the original listing price.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of March starts at $3,250,000.  Forty homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 16 in the twelve months prior to that.  Nineteen of those 40 closings occurred in the three months of June, July and August 2020. In March, there were seven new sales in this quartile.  There are 24 homes available in this quartile in March 2021 compared to 12 a year ago and 17 last month. Based on the current sales pace, the months of inventory is 3.4 months.  The average days on market for the 3 homes that closed in March in this quartile was 132 days.

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of March equals 25 properties.  This is 38% below the inventory in March 2020 (40) and it is slightly ahead of the 24 homes last month.  There were 38 new sales for the month.  This is 81% ahead of the pace of sales in March 2020 (21) and it is 9% ahead of the pace of last month (35).  There is a 0.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The days on market for the 27 homes that closed in March 2020 in Windsor was 41 days.  The median price ($765,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in March is 9% above the median price a year ago ($700,000) and is the highest median price for homes sales in any month in Windsor.

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County: The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of March (57) continued a decline that started in July of last year.  In June of last year, the inventory crested at 109 homes.  The current inventory is 32% below the number of mobile homes available in March 2020 (84) and it is 10% below the number of available mobile homes last month (63).  There were 39 new mobile home sales in March.  This is 117% above the pace of sales in March 2020 (18) and it is 8% ahead of the pace of sales last month (36).  There is a 1.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 31 mobile homes closed in March was 100 days and the median price was $162,000.  This median price is 5% above the median price of $155,000 in March 2020.  

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County: The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of March is 278 properties.  This continues a decline in inventory that started in June of last year.  The current inventory is 24% below the number of lots in March 2020 (366) and it is slightly below the number of available lots last month (282). There were 75 new lot sales in March.  This is 317% above the pace of sales in March 2020 (18) and it is 39% ahead of the pace of lot sales last month (54).  There is a 3.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace compared to a 20 months supply a year ago.  The average days on market of the 50 lots closed in March was 138 days and the median price was $268,000, 5% above the median price a year ago ($255,000).

Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of March (208) is 31% below the inventory in March 2020 (302) and it is 7% below the inventory last month (223). Sixty-two percent of the inventory in Napa County (129 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above.   New sales (176) are 110% ahead of the pace of last year (84) and are 60% above the 110 sales last month.  There is a 1.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace compared to a 2.0 months supply last month.  The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 69 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 129 homes closed in March in Napa County ($810,000) is 11% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($720,000).  Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 94% of original list price.

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $2,900,000 in Napa County at this time, down from $3,250,000 last month.  There has been an increase of 112% for the number of closings (89) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $2,900,000) in Napa County for the period 4/1/20 to 3/31/21 compared to 42 closings in the period 4/1/19 to 3/31/20.  There are 52 luxury homes in inventory at the end of March 2021 compared to 59 at the end of March 2020. There were 15 new Luxury Home sales in March compared to 2 last year and 6 last month.  This results in a 3.5 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to a 1.2 months supply for the County as a whole.  Days on market for the 8 luxury homes closings in March was just 163 days.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 88% of original list price.

American Canyon:  There are only 5 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of March in American Canyon. This is 62% below the inventory a year ago (13) and it is slightly above the supply last month (3).  There were 6 new sales in the month.  This is 40% below the pace of last year (10) and 50% below the 12 sales last month.  There is a 0.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. American Canyon remains the tightest market in Wine Country.  The Days on Market for 8 homes that closed in American Canyon last month was just 14 days. The median price of the homes that closed in American Canyon in March ($737,000) was 5% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($700,000). $737,000 is the highest median sold price ever recorded for this market.  The average price per square foot of the homes sold in American Canyon remains in the $275 to $300 range. 

Napa:  Fifty-three percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 110 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of March in the City of Napa. This is 33% below the supply at the end of March 2020 (164) and it is 13% below the inventory at the end of last month (127).  New sales (125) were 112% ahead of the pace of March 2020 (59) and they were 60% ahead of the pace of last month (78). There is a 0.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 89 closings last month was 63 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in March was $810,000. This is 18% ahead of the median price of the homes closed in March 2020 ($688,000).

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of March (77) is 14% below the level of 89 in March 2020 and it is essentially equal to the inventory last month (78).  There were 36 new sales this month compared to 9 a year ago and 16 last month.  There is now a 2.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 25 closings last month was 106 days.  Approximately 46% of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $2,900,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (24 homes).  This is down from 66% last September.  There were three luxury home (price in excess of $2,900,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month and there were six new luxury home sales.

In Angwin in March, inventory went up 20% to 18 homes compared to 11 a year ago and 15 last month.  There were five new sales in Angwin for the month.

Mobile Homes in Napa County: The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of March is 19 homes.  This is 41% below the number of mobile homes available in March 2020 (32) and it is 21% below the available homes last month (24).  There were 10 new mobile home sales in March.  This is 67% ahead of the pace of sales in March 2020 (6) and it is 9% behind the pace of sales last month (11).  There is a 1.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The average days on market of the 15 mobile homes closed in March was 69 days and the median price was $185,000.  This compares to a median price of $116,000 in March 2020.  The median price of sold mobile homes in Napa seems to vary quite a bit from month to month.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of March stands at 108.  This is 52% below the inventory in March 2020 (225) and it is 2% above the inventory last month (106).  New sales (72) in Mendocino County in March were 67% above the pace of March 2020 (43) and they were 39% above the pace last month (52).  There now is a 1.5 months supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 60 homes sold in Mendocino County in March is 70 days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the homes closed in March in Mendocino County was $510,000. This is 32% ahead of the median price in March 2020 ($387,000).  Mendocino County homes seem to be in high demand with prices rising quickly.

Ukiah: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of March in Ukiah is 26 homes.  This is 26% below the level of March 2020 (35) and it is equal to the inventory last month.  There were 29 new sales for the month of March.  This is 93% above the number of sales in March 2020 (15) and it is 93% above the sales last month (15).  There is now 0.9 months of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 19 closings last month was 37 days.  The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from $370,000 to $505,000. The median price was $462,000 for the homes that closed in March.  

Hopland and Talmage:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of March in Hopland and Talmage is 6 homes.  This compares to 9 homes in inventory at the end of March 2020 and 5 homes in inventory last month.  There were three new sales for the month of March.  This compares to 1 sale in March 2020 and 4 new sales last month.  There were four closings in the Talmage-Hopland market last month with an average days on market of 152 days.

Redwood Valley and Calpella: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of March in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 9 homes. This is 47% below the level of March 2020 (17) and it is 29% above the inventory last month (7).  There were 4 new sales for the month of March.  This compares to 5 sales in March 2020 and 5 new sales last month.  There is a 2.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $655,000.  There were four closings in Redwood Valley/Calpella in March at a median price of $540,000 and the homes sold in 49 days. 

Marin County: Marin is often considered a “feeder” county to Wine Country.  Marin County’s inventory (242 homes) is 6% above the 228 homes in March 2020 and it is 10% above the 221 homes in inventory last month.  New sales (333) were 119% ahead of the number last March (152) and were 26% ahead of the pace of last month (264).  This creates a 0.7 months supply.  The median price of the 281 homes sold in Marin County in March was $1,415,000. This is 17% ahead of the median price a year ago ($1,209,000).