Wine Country Real Estate Trends in April 2021

Year Over Year Comparisons

In mid-March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic was declared and all parties were told to “Shelter in Place”.  This basically shut down the residential real estate industry through the month of April 2020.  The market then accelerated rapidly in May through October.  Year over year statistical comparisons are therefore going to be skewed by these market aberrations.  

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for April 2021 

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group enjoyed 69 closings in April 2021 compared to 28 last April and 48 last month.  In April, we closed homes with a total value of $41 million compared to $14 million last year and $28 million last month.  The average selling price of the properties sold by BHGRE|WCG in April was $589,557.   

BHGRE|WCG currently has 90 pending sales with a value of $76 million dollars. We are 204% ahead of our volume last year (remember that Covid-19 was affecting our markets last year at this time). We have 53 active listings with a value of $40 million dollars.  Our average listing price is $755,000.  This is 10% below last year’s average list price. 

Congratulations to the following agents who had closings in the month of April:

Team Ramos (8); Sheila Deignan (6); Mari Giblin (3); Martha Saly (3); Kendra Martin (3); The Oscar-Kopelman Team (2); Rianne Pasquariello (2); Pippa Whelan (2); Trudy Ramos (2); Mari Johnson (2); Chelsie Runnings(2); David Barker (2); Liz Uribe (2); Jill Rake (2); Mary Jansen (2); Parmeeta Ghoman(2); Norm Brown (2); Laurie Parris (2); Herb Heil; Zebi Borjarski; Monica Kangas; Chris Brown; Eric Garbocci; Amanda Rivano; Pam Atchison; Tish Thames; Patty Marken; Amy Wray; Heather Thurber; Gabriel Lindeman; Nicole Moktan and Mara Kahn.

North Bay Real Estate Trends for April 2021

For all of the areas covered by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Lake, Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, there is an inventory of 1,615 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of April.  Inventory is 41% below that of a year ago (2,759) and it is 13% ahead of the inventory last month (1,450).  At times, the inventory has exceeded 10,000 homes in the BAREIS region.  There were 1,829 sales for the month of April.  This number is 119% above a year ago (836) and slightly below the pace of last month (1,852).  My financial adviser (John Engstrom with Fidelity Investments) used the term “frothy” to describe the North Bay real estate market in his eyes. It is bubbling and percolating at a rapid rate.

I have been following a data point I call the “Price Reduction Ratio”.  Across the country, one might expect that 30 to 35% of the homes put into the MLS to sell will have a price reduction before they eventually sell.  For April 2021, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, the range was from 12.5% (Mendocino County) to 18% (Napa County). Conversely, the ratio of homes selling in excess of Original List Price ranged from 45% (Mendocino) to 59% (Sonoma County).  When one sees over 50% of the homes selling in excess of original list price – that is an intriguing statistic.

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of April stands at 653.  This is 24% below the inventory in April 2020 (857) and it is 14% above the inventory last month (574).  Nearly 50% of the inventory in Sonoma County (316 homes) is priced in excess of $1,000,000 at the end of April, 2021.  New sales (666) in Sonoma County in April were 206% ahead of the pace of April 2020 (218) (remember the Covid effect) and they were slightly higher than the pace last month (658).  The number of new sales in April 2019 was 482 and in 2018 was 463, so the market is still 40+% ahead of the norm in those two years.  There is a one months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 27 (Coastal Sonoma to 96 (Oakmont) days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 47 days.  The median price of the 673 homes closed in April in Sonoma County was $735,000. This is 15% above the median price in April 2020 ($639,000). Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 99.25% of their original list price.  

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,900,000).  There has been a 172% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (334) from 5/1/20 to 4/30/21 compared to 123 closings in the period 5/1/19 to 4/30/20. The inventory of luxury homes (163) is 61% ahead of the inventory in April 2020 (101 homes).  The pace of new sales (42) in April this year is 2000% ahead of the pace of a year ago (2) (remember the COVID effect) and it is 9% below the pace last month (46).  The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 71 days this April compared to 129 days a year ago. This compares to 47 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in April.  There is a 3.9 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a one months supply in the overall Sonoma County market. Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 96.5% of original list price.

Cloverdale:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (29) in Cloverdale at the end of April is 12% below the inventory in April 2020 (33) and it is 32% above the inventory of last month (22).  There were 21 new sales in Cloverdale in April.  This compares to 5 sales in April 2020 and 15 new sales last month.  There is a 1.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 14 homes that closed in April was 67 days.

Coastal Sonoma:  There are 4 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This compares to 23 homes in inventory in April 2020 and 5 homes last month. There were 5 new sales in April compared to 3 a year ago and 8 last month.  There is now a 0.8 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 9 homes that closed in April was 27 days.  The coastal area continues to be a favored destination with a very tight real estate market.

Healdsburg Trends:  There was a big jump in inventory to 84 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month.  This is 12% above the inventory in April 2020 (75) and it is 45% ahead of the inventory last month (58).  This is one of the few Wine Country markets where inventory this year exceeds the inventory of a year ago.  New sales in April (30) were 275% ahead of the pace of sales in April 2020 (8) and they were essentially equal to the sales pace last month (31).  The months of available inventory was 2.8 months at the end of April based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 34 homes that closed in April was 53 days. 

Oakmont: There are 50 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of April.  This is 19% above the inventory in April 2020 (42) (this is one of the few Wine Country markets where inventory this year exceeds the inventory of a year ago) and it is 6% ahead of the inventory of last month (47).  New sales (43) were 514% above the sales pace of a year ago (7) (remember the COVID effect) and 48% above the pace of last month (29).  There is a 1.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high $500,000’s up to $800,000.  The median price was $655,000 for the 33 homes that closed in April.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in April was 96 days.  

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of April (52) is 18% below the inventory in April 2020 (63) and it is 41% ahead of the inventory last month (37).  There were 75 new sales for the month.  This is 114% ahead of the sales in April 2020 (35) and it is 4% below the sales pace last month (78).  This is the sixth month in a row where new sales have been higher than the existing inventory going into the month.  The Petaluma market currently has 0.7 months supply of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 85 homes that closed in April was $803,000. This is 12% ahead of the median price last April ($715,000).  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in April was 32 days.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of April (8) is 83% below the inventory in April 2020 (48) and it is 64% below the inventory last month (22).  There were 52 new sales in Rohnert Park in April.  This sales pace is 189% ahead of the 18 sales in April 2020 and it is 7% below the sales last month (55).  This is the eleventh month in a row where sales were in excess of the inventory at the beginning of the month.  In April, the month started with 22 available properties and there were 52 sales in the month.  There is a 0.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  This is the tightest market in Wine Country.  The median price ($648,000) of the 62 homes and condominiums that closed in April is 13% ahead of the median price in April a year ago ($574,000).  Days on Market for the homes that closed in April is 35 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of April in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (31) is 37% below the level of April 2020 (49) and it is 11% above the inventory last month (28).  There were 44 new sales for the month of April. This is 450% ahead of the pace in April 2020 (8) (remember the COVID effect) and it is 42% above the pace last month (31).  There is a 0.7 months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace.  The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $400,000 to the high $500,000s over the past year.  The median was $537,000 for the 34 homes that closed in April.  The homes that closed in the Russian River in April went from listing to pending in 32 days.

Santa Rosa:  Forty-one percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of April (265) is 21% below the inventory of a year ago (337) and it is 6% above the inventory last month (250). New sales in April (279) are 217% above the pace of last April (138) (remember the COVID effect) and they are 5% above the pace last month (266).  There is a 0.9 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 274 homes closed in April in Santa Rosa was $660,000 compared to $590,000 a year ago.  This is an 12% increase.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in April was 53 days.  

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of April in Sebastopol (39) is 7% below the level of April 2020 (42) and it is 70% above the inventory last month (23).  There were 38 new sales for the month of April. This is 192% ahead of the pace in April 2020 (13) and it is 15% ahead of the pace last month (33).  There is a one months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace. The 31 homes that closed in Sebastopol in April went from listing to pending in 59 days.

Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (103) at the end of April in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 4% above the inventory last April (99) and it is 12% ahead of the inventory of last month (92).  Seventy-seven percent of the available properties in the Sonoma Valley are priced at $1,000,000, or more. There were 65 new sales for the month. This is 196% ahead of the 22 sales in April 2020 (remember the COVID effect) and it is 6% below the 69 sales last month. There is a 1.5 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  The average Days on Market for the 74 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in April is 52 days.  The 74 closings in the month had a selling price equal to 96% of the original listing price.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of April starts at $3,500,000.  Thirty-eight homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 11 in the twelve months prior to that.  In April, there were seven new sales in this quartile.  There are 25 homes available in this quartile in April 2021 compared to 10 a year ago and 21 last month. Based on the current sales pace, the months of inventory is 3.6 months.  The average days on market for the 7 homes that closed in April in this quartile was 45 days.

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of April equals 32 properties.  This is 40% below the inventory in April 2020 (53) and it is 28% ahead of the 25 homes last month.  There were 34 new sales for the month.  This is 240% ahead of the pace of sales in April 2020 (10) (remember the COVID effect) and it is 11% below the pace of last month (38).  There is a 0.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The days on market for the 36 homes that closed in April 2020 in Windsor was 38 days.  The median price ($715,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in April is 9% above the median price a year ago ($655,000).

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County: The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of April (48) continued a decline that started in July of last year.  In June of last year, the inventory crested at 109 homes.  The current inventory is 48% below the number of mobile homes available in April 2020 (92) and it is 16% below the number of available mobile homes last month (57).  There were 42 new mobile home sales in April.  This is 250% above the pace of sales in April 2020 (12) remember the COVID impact) and it is 11% ahead of the pace of sales last month (38).  There is a 1.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 36 mobile homes closed in April was 74 days and the median price was $159,000.  This median price is essentially equal to the median price of $160,000 in April 2020.  

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County: The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of April is 280 properties. The current inventory is 21% below the number of lots in April 2020 (355) and it is slightly ahead of the number of available lots last month (278). There were 59 new lot sales in April.  This is 436% above the pace of sales in April 2020 (11) (remember the COVID effect) and it is 19% below the pace of lot sales last month (73).  There is a 4.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace compared to a 32 months supply a year ago.  The average days on market of the 54 lots closed in April was 162 days and the median price was $289,000.  This is in line with the median price of sold lots in recent months.

Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of April (228) is 35% below the inventory in April 2020 (348) and it is 10% above the inventory last month (208).  Sixty-five percent of the inventory in Napa County (149 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above.   New sales (165) are 120% ahead of the pace of last year (75) and are 4% below the 172 sales last month.  There is a 1.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 49 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 159 homes closed in April in Napa County ($895,000) is 25% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($715,000). Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 97% of original list price.

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $3.750,000 in Napa County at this time, up from $2,900,000 last month.  There has been an increase of 134% for the number of closings (68) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $3,750,000) in Napa County for the period 5/1/20 to 4/30/21 compared to 29 closings in the period 5/1/19 to 4/30/20.  There are 60 luxury homes in inventory at the end of April 2021 compared to 61 at the end of April 2020. There were 12 new Luxury Home sales in April compared to 3 last year and 9 last month.  This results in a 5 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to a 1.4 months supply for the County as a whole.  Days on market for the 9 luxury homes closings in April was 107 days.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 93% of original list price.

American Canyon:  There are only 7 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of April in American Canyon. This is 56% below the inventory a year ago (16) and it is slightly above the supply last month (5).  There were 9 new sales in the month.  This is 29% above the pace of last year (7) and 50% above the 6 sales last month.  There is a 1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. American Canyon remains the tightest market in Wine Country.  The Days on Market for 7 homes that closed in American Canyon last month was just 27 days. The median price of the homes that closed in American Canyon in April ($665,000) was 21% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($565,000). The average price per square foot of the homes sold in American Canyon was at $346 last month,  This is above the $275 to $300 range where the sales have been. 

Napa:  Fifty-three percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 121 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of April in the City of Napa. This is 38% below the supply at the end of April 2020 (196) and it is 10% above the inventory at the end of last month (110). New sales (105) were 110% ahead of the pace of April 2020 (50) and they were 15% below the pace of last month (124). There is a 1.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 125 closings last month was 48 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in April was $860,000. This is 17% ahead of the median price of the homes closed in April 2020 ($735,000).

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of April (88) is 17% below the level of 106 in April 2020 and it is 14% ahead of the inventory last month (77). There were 36 new sales this month compared to 10 a year ago (remember the COVID effect) and 33 last month. There is now a 2.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 24 closings last month was 53 days.  Approximately 57% of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $3,750,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (34 homes). There was one luxury home (price in excess of $3,750,000) closing in the Up Valley Market last month and there were six new luxury home sales.

In Angwin in April, inventory was 15 homes compared to 10 a year ago and 18 last month.  There were nine new sales in Angwin for the month up from two a year ago and four last month.

Mobile Homes in Napa County: The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of April is 19 homes.  This is 42% below the number of mobile homes available in April 2020 (33) and it is equal to the 19 available homes last month. There were 13 new mobile home sales in April.  This is 117% ahead of the pace of sales in April 2020 (6) (remember the COVID effect) and it is 30% above the pace of sales last month (10).  There is a 1.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The average days on market of the 7 mobile homes closed in April was 58 days and the median price was $168,000.  This compares to a median price of $150,000 in April 2020.  The median price of sold mobile homes in Napa seems to vary quite a bit from month to month.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of April stands at 128.  This is 43% below the inventory in April 2020 (224) and it is 19% above the inventory last month (108).  New sales (77) in Mendocino County in April were 196% above the pace of April 2020 (26) (remember the COVID effect) and they were 12% above the pace last month (69). There now is a 1.7 months supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 58 homes sold in Mendocino County in April is 74 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the homes closed in April in Mendocino County was $498,000. This is 26% ahead of the median price in April 2020 ($395,000).  Mendocino County homes seem to be in high demand with prices rising quickly.

Ukiah: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of April in Ukiah is 31 homes.  This is 23% below the level of April 2020 (40) and it is 19% ahead of the inventory last month (26).  There were 28 new sales for the month of April.  This is 211% above the number of sales in April 2020 (9) and it is essentially equal to the sales last month (29).  There is now 1.1 months of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 25 closings last month was 42 days.  The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from $370,000 to $505,000. The median price was $495,000 for the homes that closed in April.  

Hopland and Talmage:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of April in Hopland and Talmage is 11 homes.  This compares to 9 homes in inventory at the end of April 2020 and 6 homes in inventory last month.  There were five new sales for the month of April.  This compares to no sales in April 2020 and 3 new sales last month.  There were three closings in the Talmage-Hopland market last month with an average days on market of 124 days.

Redwood Valley and Calpella: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of April in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 11 homes. This is 28% below the level of April 2020 (18) and it is 44% above the inventory last month (9).  There were 4 new sales for the month of April.  This compares to 4 sales in April 2020 and 3 new sales last month.  There is a 3.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $655,000.  There were four closings in Redwood Valley/Calpella in April at a median price of $628,000 and the homes sold in 76 days. 

Marin County: Marin is often considered a “feeder” county to Wine Country.  Marin County’s inventory (247 homes) is 18% below the 301 homes in April 2020 and it is 2% above the 242 homes in inventory last month.  New sales (345) were 161% ahead of the number last April (132) and were 3% below the pace of last month (355).  This creates a 0.7 months supply.  The median price of the 325 homes sold in Marin County in April was $1,510,000.  This is 24% ahead of the median price a year ago ($1,215,000).