Wine Country, Northbay and North Coast Real Estate Trends 

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for February 2024

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group and Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Ming Tree enjoyed 36 closings in February 2024 compared to 43 last February and 31 last month.  This February we closed homes with a total value of $17 million compared to $20 million last year and $14 million last month.  The average selling price of the properties sold by BHGRE|WCG-MT in February was $335,919. 

BHGRE|WCG-MT currently has 75 pending sales with a value of $37 million dollars.  We are 16% ahead of our pending dollar volume at this time last year.  We have 113 active listings with a value of $46 million dollars.  We are 35% ahead of our volume of last year.  Our average listing price is $407,000.

Congratulations to the following BHGRE|Wine Country Group-Ming Tree agents who had one or more closings in the month of February.  Paige Hotchkiss in Lakeport led all agents with five closings.  Mari Giblin in Santa Rosa and David Hughes and Jessica Hooten in Clearlake each had four closings

Barbara Cronick, Carina De Herrera, Ann Conger, Bernadette Luna-Notson, Dave Hughes (4), Elizabeth Gonzalez, Liz Uribe, Paige Hotchkiss (5), Jose Mendoza, Jessica Hooten (4), Julie Lee, Jessica Spencer (3), Mara Kahn, Martha Saly, Julie Lee, Mari Giblin (4), Zebi Bojarski, Maureen Linde, Rolin Trehearne (2), Shannon Bunyard and Sharon Lutz. 

National Trends

All signals are still pointing to growth in the real estate market in 2024.  The forecasts were reduced in February as interest rates spiked above 7% and the pace of sales were just 3% to 9% over a year ago compared to 10-15% that occurred in November and December.  National inventory is currently 12% over 2023.  In California and other western states the figure is 7 to 10% ahead of last year.  If rates stay over 7%, some experts expect inventory may grow to be 40% over last year by June.  If rates fall in the coming months, the pace of sales will accelerate and inventory will fall.  Single family median home prices continue to show a 1-3% increase on a year over year basis and are expected to stay in that range for all of 2024.  The year will end with a record high median national sales price if this trend continues.

North Bay Real Estate Trends for February 2024

For all the areas covered by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, there is an inventory of 1,825 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of February.  Inventory is up 17% from a year ago (1,556) and it is 7% above the inventory last month (1,714).  As is expected, the inventory is beginning to rise into the Spring market.  There were 849 new sales for the month of February.  This number is 2% below a year ago (869) and 20% ahead of the pace of last month (707).  The median price of homes sold across our North Bay region in February was $684,000 which is 8% above the $660,000 last February.

I have been following a data point I call the “Price Reduction Ratio” (PRR) for the past couple of years.  Across the country, approximately 30% of the homes have a price reduction prior to their selling date.  In normal years, this ratio is in the 30% to 35% range with the higher part of the range being in the Fall months.  For February 2024, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, our ratios are generally in-line with the national figures.  In the region combined, 30% of the homes sold in February had a price reduction prior to selling.  This compares to 41% last month and 37% a year ago.  The numbers were 31% for Napa County, 26% for Sonoma County and 33% for Mendocino County.  Conversely, the ratio of homes selling for more than the original asking price was 26% across the region.  This compares to 17% last month and 26% a year ago.  The numbers were 25% in Napa County, 37% in Sonoma County and 17% in Mendocino County.  Thirty percent of the homes in the region had a price reduction prior to selling while 59% had a lower selling price than the original list price.  

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of February stands at 468 homes.  This is 14% above the inventory in February 2023 (410) and it is 5% above the inventory last month (447).  We are experiencing the expected rise in inventory leading into the Spring market.  Forty-eight percent of the available homes for sale in Sonoma County (223) currently are priced at $1,000,000 or more.  New sales (271) in Sonoma County in February were 3% above the pace of February 2023 (262) and they were 18% above the pace last month (229).  There is a 1.7-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 19 (Coastal Sonoma) to 102 (Healdsburg) days.  For our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The average Days on Market for all the County is 57 days.  The median price of the 197 homes closed in February in Sonoma County was $800,000. This is 8% above the median price in February 2023 ($740,000).  The annualized average price of all homes sold in the County increased 4% in the past twelve months.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 93% of their original list price.  In February, 37% of the homes in Sonoma County sold at a price more than the original asking price and 26% of the homes had a reduction in price before they sold.  Fifty-one percent of the homes closed last month had a lower selling price than the original list price.

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price more than $2,000,000 – up from $1,850,000 last month).  There has been a 10% decrease in the number of Luxury Homes closed (233) from 3/1/23 to 2/29/24 compared to 260 closings in the period 3/1/22 to 2/28/23.  The inventory of luxury homes (111) is 18% above the inventory in February 2023 (94 homes) and it is 13% above the inventory last month (96).  The pace of new sales (15) in February is 7% ahead of a year ago (14) and it is 50% above the pace last month (10).  The Days on Market for 11 Luxury Home closings was 85 days this February.  The Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in February was 57 days.  There is a 7.4-month supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 1.7-month supply in the overall Sonoma County market.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 90% of original list price.

Cloverdale:  There are 16 homes and condominiums available in Cloverdale.  This compares to 13 homes in inventory in February 2023 and 11 homes last month.  There were 6 new sales in February compared to 7 a year ago and 4 last month.  There is now a 2.7-month supply of inventory in Cloverdale based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 2 homes that closed in February is 92 days.  

Coastal Sonoma:  There are 11 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This compares to 10 homes in inventory in February 2023 and 11 homes last month.  There was 1 new sale in February compared to none a year ago and four last month.  The Days on Market for the 3 homes that closed in February is 19 days.  

Healdsburg Trends:  There are 48 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month.  This is 109% above the inventory in February 2023 (23) and it is 23% below the inventory last month (39).  New sales in February (8) were 47% below the pace of sales in February 2023 (15) and they were 14% above the pace of sales last month (7).  There are 6-months of available inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 4 homes that closed in February is 102 days.  

Oakmont:  There are 18 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of February.  This is 64% above the inventory in February 2023 (11) and it is 50% above the inventory of last month (12).  New sales (13) were 28% below the sales pace of a year ago (18) and they were 86% above the pace of last month (7).  There is a 1.4-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the low $600,000’s up to $832,000.  The median price was $685,000 for the 7 homes that closed in February.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in February is 51 days.  

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of February (56) is 19% above the inventory in February 2023 (47) and it is 14% above the inventory last month (49).  There were 35 new sales for the month.  This is 6% above the sales in February 2023 (33) and it is 46% above the sales pace last month (24).  The Petaluma market currently has 1.1 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 21 homes that closed in February was $800,000.  This is 9% below the median price last February ($875,000).  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in February is 36 days.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of February (14) is 25% below the inventory in February 2023 (19) and it is 17% above the inventory last month (22).  There were 29 new sales in Rohnert Park in February.  This sales pace is 26% above the 23 sales in February 2023 and it is 21% above the sales last month (24).  There is a 0.5-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price ($695,000) of the 24 homes and condominiums that closed in February is 3% above the median price in February a year ago ($675,000).  Days on Market for the homes that closed in February is 48 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of February in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (30) is 25% above the level of February 2023 (24) and it is 11% above the inventory last month (27).  There were 9 new sales for the month of February.  This is 10% below the pace in February 2023 (10) and it is 25% below the pace last month (12).  There is a 3.3-month supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace.  The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $500,000 to $725,000 over the past year.  The median was $515,000 for the 7 homes that closed in February.  The homes that closed in the Russian River in February went from listing to pending in 87 days.

Santa Rosa:  Thirty-six percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of February (167) is 5% above the inventory of a year ago (159) and it is 6% below the inventory last month (177).  New sales in February (111) are 2% above the pace of last February (109) and they are 10% above the 101 sales last month.  There is 1.5-month supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 90 homes closed in February in Santa Rosa was $712,000 which is 4% above the $682,000 price a year ago.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in February is 63 days.  

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of February in Sebastopol is 23 homes.  This is 18% below the inventory last February (28) and it is 15% below the inventory last month (27).  There were 18 new sales for the month of February.  This is equal to the pace in February 2023 (18) and it is 80% ahead of the pace last month (10).  There is a 1.3-month supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace.  The 12 homes that closed in Sebastopol in February went from listing to pending in 32 days.

Sonoma Valley:  The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (70) at the end of February in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 15% above the inventory last February (61) and it is 9% above the inventory of last month (64).  Fifty-one percent of the available properties in the Sonoma Valley (36) are priced at $1,000,000, or more.  There were 25 new sales for the month. This is 19% above the 21 sales in February 2023 and it is 47% above the 17 sales last month.  There is a 2.8-month supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  The average Days on Market for the 16 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in February is 73 days.  The closings in the month had a selling price equal to 97% of the original listing price.  In February, 31% of the homes in the Sonoma Valley sold at a price more than the original list price and 25% had a reduction in price before they sold.  Fifty-six percent of the homes in the Valley had a lower selling price than the original list price.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of February starts at $3,400,000.  Twenty-five homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 32 in the twelve months prior to that.  In February, there were 3 new sales in this quartile comparing to 2 new sales a year ago and 2 new sales last month. There are 18 homes available in this quartile in February 2024 compared to 19 a year ago and 17 last month.  

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of February is 14 properties.  This is 34% below the inventory in February 2023 (21) and it is 17% above the 12 homes in inventory last month.  There were 16 sales in the month.  This is equal to the pace of sales in February 2023 (16) and it is 14% above the pace of last month (14).  There is a 0.9-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The days on market for the 9 homes that closed in February 2024 in Windsor is 46 days.  The median price ($860,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in February compares to a median price of ($762,000) a year ago, an increase of 13%. 

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of February is 57 homes.  This is 8% above the number of mobile homes available in February 2023 (53) and it is equal to the number of available mobile homes last month (57).  There were 23 new mobile home sales in February.  This is 15% below the pace of sales in February 2023 (27) and it is 36% below the pace of sales last month (36).  There is a 2.5-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 28 mobile homes closed in February is 84 days and the median price was $188,000 compared to $215,000 a year ago and $168,000 last month.  

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of February is 282 properties. The current inventory is 13% above the number of lots in February 2023 (249) and it is 2% above the number of available lots last month (277). There were 29 new lot sales in February.  This is 94% above the pace of sales in February 2023 (15) and it is 53% above the pace of lot sales last month (19).  There is a 9.7-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 23 lots closed in February is 145 days and the median price is $355,000 compared to $310,000 a year ago and $265,000 last month.   

Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of February (210) is 9% above the inventory in February 2022 (193) and it is 6% above the inventory last month (199).  Sixty-seven percent of the inventory in Napa County (140 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above.  New sales (66) are slightly above the pace of last year (65) and are 29% ahead of the 51 sales last month.  There is a 3.2-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the homes closing in Napa County is currently 71 days.  In our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 59 homes closed in February in Napa County ($840,000) is 2% above the median price of a year ago ($825,000).  Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 91% of original list price.  In February, 25% of the homes in Napa County sold at a price that was more than the original asking price and 31% of sold homes had a price reduction prior to sale.  Sixty-three percent of the homes sold at a price that was less than the original asking price.  

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market currently begins at $3,150,000 in Napa County.  There has been a decrease of 39% for the number of closings (38) of Luxury Homes (sales price more than $3,150,000) in Napa County for the period 3/1/23 to 2/29/24 compared to 62 closings in the period 3/1/22 to 2/28/23.  This continues a trend where we see a decrease in this number of luxury sales.  There are 53 luxury homes in inventory at the end of February 2024 compared to 51 homes in inventory at the end of February 2023 and 53 last month. There were four new Luxury Home sales in February compared to two last year and two last month.  This creates a 13.3-month supply of inventory.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 87% of original asking price and the 4 homes that closed last month were on the market for 102 days.

American Canyon:  There are just 6 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of February in American Canyon. Last year there were 11 homes in inventory and there were also 11 homes in inventory last month.  There were 5 new sales in the month.  This compares to 7 new homes sales last February and 4 new sales last month.  There is a 1.2-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for 5 homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 36 days.  The median price in American Canyon has ranged from about $500,000 to $800,000 over the past year.  The median was $545,000 in February.  

Napa:  Fifty-eight percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 122 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of February in the City of Napa. This is 45% above the supply at the end of February 2023 (84) and it is 9% above the inventory at the end of last month (112).  New sales (49) were 17% above the pace of February 2023 (42) and they were 36% above the pace of last month (36).  There is a 2.5-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 42 closings last month is 62 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in February was $850,000. This is 1% above the median price of the homes closed in February 2023 ($843,000).

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of February (68) is 14% below the level of 79 in February 2023 and it is 6% above the inventory last month (64).  There were 9 new sales this month compared to 10 a year ago and 9 last month.  There is now a 7.6-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 9 closings last month is 139 days.  Over the past four months, Up Valley homes are selling at roughly 85% of original list price.  Forty-nine percent of the Luxury Market inventory (price more than $3,150,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (26 homes). There was one luxury home (price more than $3,150,000) closing in the Up Valley Market last month and there was one new luxury home sale.

Angwin:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Angwin at the end of February (7) compares to 8 in February 2023 and 11 last month.  There were 2 new sales this month compared to one a year ago and one last month.  The average asking price for the 7 homes on the market in Angwin is $2,490,000.

Mobile Homes in Napa County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of February is 31 homes.  This is 55% above the number of mobile homes available in February 2023 (20) and it is equal to the 31 available homes last month.  There were 9 new mobile home sales in February.  This compares to 11 home sales last February 2023 and 11 sales last month.  There is a 3.4-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 7 mobile homes closed in February is 71 days and the median price was $275,000.  This compares to a median price of $178,000 in February 2023 and $190,000 last month.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of February stands at 230.  This is 13% above the inventory in February 2023 (203) and it is just below the inventory last month (231).  New sales (53) in Mendocino County in February were 61% above the pace of February 2023 (33) and they were 36% above the pace last month (39).  There now is a 4.3-month supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 36 homes sold in Mendocino County in February is 90 days.  For our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of sold homes in Mendocino has been between $400,000 and $600,000 over the past year.  The median price of the homes closed in February in was $493,000.  Over the past four months, Mendocino County homes are selling at roughly 86% of original asking price.  In February, 17% of the homes in Mendocino County sold at a price greater than the original asking price.  Thirty-three percent of the homes showed a price reduction prior to selling and 64% of homes closed at a price less than their original list price.

Ukiah:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of February in Ukiah is 36 homes.  This is 8% below the level of February 2023 (39) and it is just above the inventory last month (35).  There were 12 new sales for the month of February.  This compares to 12 sales in February 2023 and 14 sales last month.  There are 3 months of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 12 homes sold in Ukiah in February is 69 days.  The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from $450,000 to $640,000. The median price was $512,000 for the homes that closed in February.  

Redwood Valley and Calpella:  The inventory of homes for sale at the end of February in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 15 homes.  This compares to 14 homes in February 2023 and 19 homes last month.  There were 9 new sales for the month of February.  This compares to 4 sales in February 2023 and 1 new sale last month.  There is a 1.7-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $725,000.  The 5 closings in Redwood Valley/Calpella in February sold for $550,000 and the home sold in 108 days. 

Hopland and Talmage:  The inventory of homes for sale at the end of February in Hopland and Talmage is 12 homes.  This compares to 7 homes in inventory at the end of February 2023 and 11 homes in inventory last month.  There were no new sales in the month of February.  This compares to no sales in February 2023 and two new sales last month.  There were two closed sales in this area last month that closed in an average of 120 days.

Lake County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Lake County at the end of February stands at 410.  Approximately 35% of the inventory (142 homes) is in the communities of Clearlake and another 12% (50 homes) are in Lakeport.  The countywide inventory is 18% above the inventory in February 2023 (348) and it is 14% above the inventory last month (395).  Closed sales (56) in Lake County in February were about equal to the pace of February 2023 (54) and they were equal to the pace last month (56).  There now is a 6-month supply of inventory in Lake County based on the existing closings pace.  The median Days on Market for the homes sold in Lake County in February is 54 days. Usually “Days on Market” are traced from listing date to pending date, so the closing date would be somewhat longer.  The median price of the homes closed in February in Lake County was $286,000. This is 19% above the median price in February 2023 ($240,000) and it is 4% below the median price last month ($299,000).  The homes sold in Lake County last month sold at an average of 94% of original list price.

Humboldt County:  Sid Anderson of our Eureka office (though he lives in Montana) does a wonderful analysis of the real estate markets in Humboldt County which includes our offices in Eureka and Fortuna.  For more detailed information – let me know and I’ll send it to you.  In general, sales are up 14% compared to February 2023 and up 32% over January.  The median price is up 2.8% on a year over year basis.

Marin County:  Marin County is often considered a “feeder” county to our North Bay Wine Country markets.  Marin County’s inventory (248 homes) is 20% above the 208 homes in February 2023 and it is 23% above the 201 homes in inventory last month.  New sales (120) were 12% below the number last February (136) and they were 36% above the pace of last month (88).  There is a 2.1-month supply of inventory at the end of February 2024.  The median price of the 92 homes sold in Marin County in February is $1,435,000.  This is 20% above the median price a year ago ($1,200,000).  Homes sold in an average of 61 days and at 97% of original asking price.