Wine Country and Northbay Real Estate Trends 

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for January 2024

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group and Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Ming Tree enjoyed 31 closings in January 2024 compared to 44 last January and 47 last month.  This January we closed homes with a total value of $14 million compared to $20 million last year and $17 million last month.  The average selling price of the properties sold by BHGRE|WCG-MT in January was $443,129. 

BHGRE|WCG-MT currently has 70 pending sales with a value of $28 million dollars.  We are slightly below our pending dollar volume at this time last year.  We have 112 active listings with a value of $47 million dollars.  We are 27% below our volume for last year.  Our average listing price is $420,000.

Congratulations to the following BHGRE|Wine Country Group-Ming Tree agents who had one or more closings in the month of January.  Mari Giblin in Lakeport and Rianne Pasquariello in St. Helena led all agents with 3 closings each.

Barbara Cronick, Carina De Herrera (2), Leo Merle (2), Cheryl Marinaro, Jana Adams (2), Sheila Deignan (2), Brenda Lockhardt, Sandra Riggs (2), Jill Rake, Jessica Hooten (2), Kim Brown, Jessica Spencer, Malachi Herrera (2), Taran Pitzer, Thomas Harmon, Mari Giblin (3), Yvonne Berg, Martha Saly (2), Parmeeta Ghoman and Rianne Pasquariello (3).

National Trends

All signals are still pointing to growth in the real estate market in 2024.  The forecasts were reduced in January as interest rates spiked above 7% and the pace of sales were just 3% to 9% over a year ago compared to 10-15% that occurred in November and December.  If rates fall in the coming months, the pace of sales will accelerate and inventory will fall.  If rates remain above 7%, inventory is expected to grow. National inventory is currently 12% over 2023 though in California and other western states the figure is down 7 to 10%.  Single family median home prices continue to show a 1-3% increase on a year over year basis and are expected to stay in that range for all of 2024.  The year will end with a record high median national sales price if this trend bears out.

North Bay Real Estate Trends for January 2024

For all the areas covered by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, there is an inventory of 1,714 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of January.  Inventory is up 7% from a year ago (1,605) and it is 7% below the inventory last month (1,837).  As usually occurs at this time of year, inventory drops on a month-to-month basis and will likely do so through mid-February.  There were 770 new sales for the month of January.  This number is 13% ahead of a year ago (680) and 22% ahead of the pace of last month (629).  The median price of homes sold across our North Bay region in January was $678,000 which is 8% above the $625,000 last January.

I have been following a data point I call the “Price Reduction Ratio” (PRR) for the past couple of years.  Across the country, approximately 30% of the homes have a price reduction prior to their selling date.  In normal years, this ratio is in the 30% to 35% range with the higher part of the range being in the Fall months.  For January 2024, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, our ratios are generally higher then the national figures.  In the region combined, 41% of the homes sold in January had a price reduction prior to selling.  This compares to 47% last month and 53% a year ago.  The numbers were 42% for Napa County, 34% for Sonoma County and 48% for Mendocino County.  Conversely, the ratio of homes selling for more than the original asking price was 17% across the region.  This compares to 19% last month and 10% a year ago.  The numbers were 16% in Napa County, 26% in Sonoma County and 9% in Mendocino County.  Forty-one percent of the homes in the region had a price reduction prior to selling while 70% had a lower selling price than the original list price.  

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of January stands at 447 homes.  This is 11% above the inventory in January 2023 (402) and it is 6% below the inventory last month (476).  As usually occurs at this time of year, inventory drops on a month-to-month basis and will likely do so through mid-February.  Forty-eight percent of the available homes for sale in Sonoma County (214) currently are priced at $1,000,000 or more.  New sales (247) in Sonoma County in January were 27% above the pace of January 2023 (195) and they were 26% above the pace last month (196).  There is a 1.8-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 43 (Rohnert Park) to 136 (Coastal Sonoma) days.  For our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The average Days on Market for all the County is 69 days.  The median price of the 195 homes closed in January in Sonoma County was $800,000. This is 13% above the median price in January 2023 ($710,000).  The annualized average price of all homes sold in the County increased 4% in the past twelve months.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 94% of their original list price.  In January, 26% of the homes in Sonoma County sold at a price more than the original asking price and 34% of the homes had a reduction in price before they sold.  Sixty-four percent of the homes closed last month had a lower selling price than the original list price.

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price more than ($1,800,000).  There has been a 12% decrease in the number of Luxury Homes closed (304) from 2/1/23 to 1/31/24 compared to 344 closings in the period 2/1/22 to 1/31/23.  The inventory of luxury homes (111) is 18% above the inventory in January 2023 (94 homes) and it is 8% below the inventory last month (121).  The pace of new sales (16) in January is 46% ahead of a year ago (11) and it is equal to the pace last month (16).  The Days on Market for 23 Luxury Home closings was 123 days this January.  The Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in January was 69 days.  There is a 6.9-month supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 1.8-month supply in the overall Sonoma County market.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 89% of original list price.

Cloverdale:  There are 11 homes and condominiums available in Cloverdale.  This compares to 11 homes in inventory in January 2023 and 16 homes last month.  There were 4 new sales in January compared to 4 a year ago and 11 last month.  There is now a 2.6-month supply of inventory in Cloverdale based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 9 homes that closed in January is 59 days.  

Coastal Sonoma:  There are 11 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This compares to 8 homes in inventory in January 2023 and 10 homes last month.  There were 4 new sales in January compared to none a year ago and one last month.  The Days on Market for the 3 homes that closed in January is 136 days.  

Healdsburg Trends:  There are 39 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month.  This is 22% above the inventory in January 2023 (32) and it is 15% below the inventory last month (46).  New sales in January (9) were 80% above the pace of sales in January 2023 (5) and they were 13% above the pace of sales last month (8).  There are 4.3-months of available inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 10 homes that closed in January is 64 days.  

Oakmont:  There are 12 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of January.  This is 29% below the inventory in January 2023 (17) and it is 20% above the inventory of last month (10).  New sales (9) were 25% below the sales pace of a year ago (12) and they were 125% above the pace of last month (4).  There is a 1.3-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the low $600,000’s up to $832,000.  The median price was $687,000 for the 6 homes that closed in January.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in January is 56 days.  

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of January (49) is 14% above the inventory in January 2023 (43) and it is 4% above the inventory last month (47).  There were 27 new sales for the month.  This is 8% above the sales in January 2023 (25) and it is 17% above the sales pace last month (23).  The Petaluma market currently has 1.8 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 22 homes that closed in January was $845,000.  This is 4% below the median price last January ($884,000).  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in January is 56 days.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of January (12) is 25% below the inventory in January 2023 (16) and it is 43% below the inventory last month (21).  There were 24 new sales in Rohnert Park in January.  This sales pace is 20% above the 20 sales in January 2023 and it is 85% above the sales last month (13).  There is a 0.5-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price ($718,000) of the 9 homes and condominiums that closed in January is 12% above the median price in January a year ago ($640,000).  Days on Market for the homes that closed in January is 43 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of January in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (27) is just below the level of January 2023 (28) and it is 23% below the inventory last month (35).  There were 14 new sales for the month of January.  This is 133% ahead of the pace in January 2023 (6) and it is 100% ahead of the pace last month (7).  There is a 1.9-month supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace.  The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $500,000 to $725,000 over the past year.  The median was $570,000 for the 10 homes that closed in January.  The homes that closed in the Russian River in January went from listing to pending in 80 days.

Santa Rosa:  Forty percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of January (177) is 6% above the inventory of a year ago (167) and it is 5% below the inventory last month (187).  New sales in January (110) are 22% above the pace of last January (90) and they are 31# above the 84 sales last month.  There is 1.6-month supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 70 homes closed in January in Santa Rosa was $728,000 which is 19% above the $612,000 price a year ago.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in January is 60 days.  

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of January in Sebastopol is 27 homes.  This is just above the inventory last January (26) and it is equal to the inventory last month (27).  There were 10 new sales for the month of January.  This is 29% below the pace in January 2023 (14) and it is equal to the pace last month (10).  There is a 2.7-month supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace.  The 9 homes that closed in Sebastopol in January went from listing to pending in 123 days.

Sonoma Valley:  The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (64) at the end of January in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 31% above the inventory last January (49) and it is 10% above the inventory of last month (58).  Fifty-three percent of the available properties in the Sonoma Valley (34) are priced at $1,000,000, or more.  There were 18 new sales for the month. This is slightly above the 17 sales in January 2023 and it is 22% below the 23 sales last month.  There is a 3.6-month supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  The average Days on Market for the 28 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in January is 88 days.  The closings in the month had a selling price equal to 87% of the original listing price.  In January, 4% of the homes in the Sonoma Valley sold at a price more than the original list price and 50% had a reduction in price before they sold.  Eighty-six percent of the homes in the Valley had a lower selling price than the original list price.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of January starts at $3,500,000.  Twenty-eight homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 31 in the twelve months prior to that.  In January, there were 2 new sales in this quartile comparing to 1 new sales a year ago and 2 new sales last month. There are 16 homes available in this quartile in January 2024 compared to 17 a year ago and 13 last month.  

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of January is 12 properties.  This is just below the inventory in January 2023 (13) and it is 20% below the 15 homes in inventory last month.  There were 14 sales in the month.  This is 133% above the pace of sales in January 2023 (6) and it is 180% above the pace of last month (5).  There is a 0.9-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The days on market for the 10 homes that closed in January 2024 in Windsor is 57 days.  The median price ($839,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in January compares to a median price of ($799,000) a year ago. 

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of January is 57 homes.  This is 27% above the number of mobile homes available in January 2023 (45) and it is 24% below the number of available mobile homes last month (75).  There were 37 new mobile home sales in January.  This is 54% above the pace of sales in January 2023 (24) and it is 76% above the pace of sales last month (21).  There is a 1.5-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 22 mobile homes closed in January is 84 days and the median price was $144,000 compared to $170,000 a year ago and $151,000 last month.  

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of January is 277 properties. The current inventory is 23% above the number of lots in January 2023 (225) and it is 7% below the number of available lots last month (299). There were 22 new lot sales in January.  This is 38% above the pace of sales in January 2023 (16) and it is also 38% above the pace of lot sales last month (16).  There is a 12.6-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 19 lots closed in January is 149 days and the median price is $265,000 compared to $289,000 a year ago and $250,000 last month.   

Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of January (199) is 12% above the inventory in January 2022 (178) and it is 3% below the inventory last month (206).  Sixty-three percent of the inventory in Napa County (125 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above.  New sales (55) are 4% below the pace of last year (57) and are 22% ahead of the 45 sales last month.  There is a 3.6-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the homes closing in Napa County is currently 95 days.  In our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 42 homes closed in January in Napa County ($940,000) is 20% above the median price of a year ago ($785,000).  Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 91% of original list price.  In January, 16% of the homes in Napa County sold at a price that was more than the original asking price and 42% of sold homes had a price reduction prior to sale.  Sixty-three percent of the homes sold at a price that was less than the original asking price.  

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market currently begins at $3,250,000 in Napa County.  There has been a decrease of 47% for the number of closings (32) of Luxury Homes (sales price more than $3,250,000) in Napa County for the period 2/1/23 to 1/31/24 compared to 60 closings in the period 2/1/22 to 1/31/23.  This continues a trend where we see a decrease in this number of luxury sales.  There are 49 luxury homes in inventory at the end of January 2024 compared to 43 homes in inventory at the end of January 2023 and 60 last month. There was one new Luxury Home sale in January compared to none last year and four last month.  This creates a 49-month supply of inventory.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 93% of original asking price and the 4 homes that closed last month were on the market for 143 days.

American Canyon:  There are 11 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of January in American Canyon. Last year there were 16 homes in inventory and there were 13 homes in inventory last month.  There were 4 new sales in the month.  This compares to 10 new homes sales last January and 6 new sales last month.  There is a 2.8-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for 6 homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 34 days.  The median price in American Canyon has ranged from about $500,000 to $800,000 over the past year.  The median was $640,000 in January.  

Napa:  Fifty-six percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 112 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of January in the City of Napa. This is 44% above the supply at the end of January 2023 (78) and it is 8% above the inventory at the end of last month (104).  New sales (38) were 7% below the pace of January 2023 (41) and they were 27% above the pace of last month (30).  There is a 2.9-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 24 closings last month is 69 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in January was $882,000. This is 12% above the median price of the homes closed in January 2023 ($785,000).

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of January (64) is 7% below the level of 69 in January 2023 and it is 15% below the inventory last month (75).  There were 9 new sales this month compared to 4 a year ago and 8 last month.  There is now a 7.1-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 10 closings last month is 195 days.  Over the past four months, Up Valley homes are selling at roughly 84% of original list price.  Forty-nine percent of the Luxury Market inventory (price more than $3,250,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (24 homes). There were three luxury home (price more than $3,250,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month and there were no new luxury home sales.

Angwin:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Angwin at the end of January (11) compares to 6 in January 2023 and 13 last month.  There was 1 new sale this month compared to none a year ago and three last month.  The average asking price for the 11 homes on the market in Angwin is $3,521,000.

Mobile Homes in Napa County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of January is 31 homes.  This is 48% above the number of mobile homes available in January 2023 (21) and it is 21% below the 39 available homes last month.  There were 11 new mobile home sales in January.  This compares to 10 home sales last January 2023 and 11 sales last month.  There is a 2.8-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 8 mobile homes closed in January is 108 days and the median price was $190,000.  This compares to a median price of $210,000 in January 2023 and $170,000 last month.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of January stands at 231.  This is 10% above the inventory in January 2023 (210) and it is 11% below the inventory last month (259).  New sales (44) in Mendocino County in January were 33% above the pace of January 2023 (33) and they were 4% below the pace last month (46).  There now is a 5.3-month supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 43 homes sold in Mendocino County in January is 102 days.  For our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of sold homes in Mendocino has been between $400,000 and $600,000 over the past year.  The median price of the homes closed in January in was $485,000.  Over the past four months, Mendocino County homes are selling at roughly 88% of original asking price.  In January, 9% of the homes in Mendocino County sold at a price greater than the original asking price.  Forty-eight percent of the homes showed a price reduction prior to selling and 84% of homes closed at a price less than their original list price.

Ukiah:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of January in Ukiah is 35 homes.  This is 15% below the level of January 2023 (41) and it is 19% below the inventory last month (43).  There were 14 new sales for the month of January.  This compares to 12 sales in January 2023 and 13 sales last month.  There are 2.5 months of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 14 homes sold in Ukiah in January is 89 days.  The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from $450,000 to $640,000. The median price was $453,000 for the homes that closed in January.  

Redwood Valley and Calpella:  The inventory of homes for sale at the end of January in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 19 homes.  This compares to 18 homes in January 2023 and 19 homes last month.  There were 2 new sales for the month of January.  This compares to 4 sales in January 2023 and 5 new sales last month.  There is a 9.5-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $725,000.  The 5 closings in Redwood Valley/Calpella in January sold for $470,000 and the home sold in 76 days. 

Hopland and Talmage:  The inventory of homes for sale at the end of January in Hopland and Talmage is 11 homes.  This compares to 5 homes in inventory at the end of January 2023 and 9 homes in inventory last month.  There were two new sales in the month of January.  This compares to 1 sale in January 2023 and no new sales last month.  There were no closed sales in this area last month.  

Lake County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Lake County at the end of January stands at 413.  Approximately 35% of the inventory (144 homes) is in the communities of Clearlake and another 12% (48 homes) are in Lakeport.  The countywide inventory is 15% above the inventory in January 2023 (360) and it is 2% above the inventory last month (406).  Closed sales (55) in Lake County in January were 8% above the pace of January 2023 (51) and they were equal to the pace last month (55).  There now is a 5.9-month supply of inventory in Lake County based on the existing closings pace.  The median Days on Market for the homes sold in Lake County in January is 72 days.  Usually “Days on Market” are traced from listing date to pending date, so the closing date would be somewhat longer.  The median price of the homes closed in January in Lake County was $305,000. This is 3% above the median price in January 2023 ($295,000) and it is 1% below the median price last month ($308,000).  The homes sold in Lake County last month sold at 94% of original list price.

Humboldt County:  Sid Anderson of our Eureka office (though he lives in Montana) does a wonderful analysis of the real estate markets in Humboldt County which includes our offices in Eureka and Fortuna.  For more detailed information – let me know and I’ll send it to you.  In general, sales are up on a year over year comparison and the average price of the sold properties are up 3% for the year.

Marin County:  Marin County is often considered a “feeder” county to our North Bay Wine Country markets.  Marin County’s inventory (201 homes) is 5% below the 211 homes in January 2023 and it is 3% above the 195 homes in inventory last month.  New sales (91) were 4% below the number last January (95) and they were 2% above the pace of last month (89).  There is a 2.2-month supply of inventory at the end of January 2024.  The median price of the 86 homes sold in Marin County in January is $1,325,000.  This is 23% above the median price a year ago ($1,079,000).  Homes sold in an average of 68 days and at 93% of original asking price.