Wine Country and Northbay Real Estate Trends 

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for March 2023

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group and Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Ming Tree enjoyed 61 closings in March 2023 compared to 108 last March and 43 last month.  Since 2020, 2021 and 2022 were all unusual real estate markets, some observers are suggesting comparing current numbers to those of 2019.  In March 2019 we closed 36 homes.  This March we closed homes with a total value of $25 million compared to $44 million last year, $20 million last month and $21 million in 2/19.  The average selling price of the properties sold by BHGRE|WCG in March was $416,000. 

BHGRE|WCG-MT currently has 96 pending sales with a value of $43 million dollars.  In March 2019, we had 40 pending sales with a value of $27 million.  We are 20% behind our pending unit volume last year.  We have 108 active listings with a value of $28 million dollars compared to 65 listings with a value of $57 million in 2019.  We are 27% behind of last year in our listing unit volume.  Our average listing price is $259,000.

Congratulations to the following BHGRE|Wine Country Group-Ming Tree agents who had one or more closings in the month of March.  Paige Hotchkiss in Lakeport led all agents with 6 closings and Lisa Ladanyl in Eureka had 5 closings.  Our two offices in Humboldt had 21 of our total 61 closings in March.

Jessica Spencer (2), Summer Dahlquist, Cheryl Marinaro, Natalie Hill (3), Larry Doss, Cheyenne Blue, Chris Brown (3), Brenda Lockhart (3), Team Ramos (2), Randy Coffman (2), Darla McKenzie, Carina de Herrera, Annalise Von Borstel, Bill McKinley, Parmeeta Ghoman (2), Jessica Hooten (3), Elizabeth Uribe, Erick Rothfeld, Mari Giblin (2), Paige Hotchkiss (6), Ray Hellgren, Dave Hughes (3), Rianne Pasquariello, Sarah Duschka (2), Stephen Miner, PJ Lange, Pam Atchison, Nicole Berg (2), Maria Flores, Lisa Ladanyl (5), Kendra Martin (2), Kim Brown (2), Larry Salmon, Linda Alioto, Brandt Peterson, Marsha Wedan and Yvonne Berg (3)

We are pleased that 46 of our agents received national recognition from Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate and will receive their Awards at a special presentation on Friday, March 24.

National Trends

Across the nation, the inventory of homes for sale is low when compared to the pre-pandemic years.  We expect more new listings to come on the market in the coming weeks but the increase is slow.  One factor in the low inventory is that most homeowners got new loans in the past few years and have 3 to 4% long term mortgages.  They ask: “Why trade this good mortgage for one at 7%” and decide not to sell.  Sales volume (pending sales) have picked up and “immediate sales” now represent 25% of the market.  This compares to 30% a year ago.  We’re seeing buyers competing for homes with multiple offers in some cases.  There are still more buyers than sellers, The appreciation rate for homes is expected to moderate this year and be essentially flat or slightly negative for the year on a nationwide basis.  The strong jobs market is one of the factors buoying the housing market.

North Bay Real Estate Trends for March 2023

For all the areas covered by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, there is an inventory of 1,629 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of March.  Inventory is 37% below that of a year ago (2,599) and it is 5% above the inventory last month (1,556).  Since 2020, 2021 and 2022 were all unusual real estate markets, some observers are suggesting comparing current numbers to those of 2019.  In March 2019 there were 4,119 homes in inventory in the North Bay.  Current inventory is 60% below the 2/19 level.  There were 1,090 sales for the month of March.  This number is 28% below a year ago (1,516) and 24% above the pace of last month (878).  It is just 12% below the number of sales in 2/19 (1,233).  The median price of homes sold across our North Bay region in March was $699,000 compared to $730,000 last March and $535,000 in March 2019. 

I have been following a data point I call the “Price Reduction Ratio” (PRR) for the past couple of years.  Across the country, approximately 30% of the homes have a selling price lower than the original asking price.  For March 2023, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, our ratios are higher than the national average.  In the region combined, 32% of the homes sold in March had a selling price lower than the original asking price.  This compares to 37% last month and 16% a year ago.  The numbers were 32% for Napa County, 24% for Sonoma County and 41% for Mendocino County.  Conversely, the ratio of homes selling for more than the original asking price was 24% across the region.  This compares to 26% last month and 57% a year ago.  The numbers were 32% in Napa County, 37% in Sonoma County and 3% in Mendocino County.  Out of 37 sales in Mendocino County last month – only one sold at more than asking price.

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of March stands at 422 homes.  This is 47% below the inventory in March 2022 (799) and it is slightly above the inventory last month (410).  It compares to 1,276 listings in March 2019.  Fifty-five percent of the available homes for sale in Sonoma County at this time (234) are priced at $1,000,000 or more.  New sales (330) in Sonoma County in March were 36% below the pace of March 2022 (515) and they were 25% above the pace last month (265).  There were 293 new sales in March 2019.  There is a 1.3-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 32 (Healdsburg) to 122 (Cloverdale) days.  For our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The average Days on Market for all the County is 53 days.  The median price of the 293 homes closed in March in Sonoma County was $795,000. This is slightly above the median price in March 2022 ($790,000).  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 95% of their original list price.  In March, 37% of the homes in Sonoma County sold at a price more than the original asking price and 24% of the homes had a reduction in price before they sold.  We are currently experiencing more properties with multiple offers.

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price more than ($2,200,000).  This is up from $1,800,000 last month.  There has been a 36% decrease in the number of Luxury Homes closed (194) from 4/1/22 to 3/31/23 compared to 301 closings in the period 4/1/21 to 3/31//22.  The inventory of luxury homes (101) is 42% below the inventory in March 2022 (174 homes) and it is 16% above the inventory last month (87).  The pace of new sales (17) in March this year is 49% below the pace of a year ago (33) and it is 42% above the pace last month (12).  The Days on Market for 16 Luxury Home closings was 62 days this March.  The Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in March was 53 days. There is a 5.9-month supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 1.3-month supply in the overall Sonoma County market.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 93% of original list price.

Cloverdale:  There are 13 homes and condominiums available in Cloverdale.  This compares to 23 homes in inventory in March 2022 and 13 homes last month.  There were 7 new sales in March compared to 18 a year ago and 7 last month.  There is now a 1.9-month supply of inventory in Cloverdale based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 8 homes that closed in March is 122 days.  

Coastal Sonoma:  There are 10 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This compares to 9 homes in inventory in March 2022 and 10 homes last month.  There were 4 new sales in March compared to 4 a year ago and also none last month.  The rainy, wintery weather may be keeping folks from visiting the coast.

Healdsburg Trends:  There are 38 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month.  It is 52% below the inventory in March 2022 (79) and it is 65% ahead of the inventory last month (23).  New sales in March (16) were 33% below the pace of sales in March 2022 (24) and they slightly ahead of the pace of sales pace last month (15).  There are 2.4-months of available inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 18 homes that closed in March is 32 days.  

Oakmont:  There are 17 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of March.  This is 11% below the inventory in March 2022 (19) and it is 55% above the inventory of last month (11).  New sales (19) were 13% below the sales pace of a year ago (22) and slightly above the pace of last month (18).  There is a 0.9-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high $500,000’s up to $849,000.  The median price was $745,000 for the 16 homes that closed in March.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in March is 49 days.  

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of March (48) is 48% below the inventory in March 2022 (93) and it is essentially equal to the inventory last month (47).  There were 40 new sales for the month.  This is 43% below the sales in March 2022 (70) and it is 18% above the sales pace last month (34).  The Petaluma market currently has 1.2 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 37 homes that closed in March was $838,000.  This is 7% below the median price last March ($900,000).  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in March is 49 days.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of March (17) is 59% below the inventory in March 2022 (41) and it is 11% below the inventory last month (19).  There were 27 new sales in Rohnert Park in March.  This sales pace is 25% below the 36 sales in March 2022 and it is 17% above the sales last month (23).  We’ve returned to a market in Rohnert Park where the number of sales in the month exceed the number of listings at the beginning of the month.  This was a trend here during the pandemic years.  There is a 0.6-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price ($720,000) of the 30 homes and condominiums that closed in March is 7% above the median price in March a year ago ($670,000).  Days on Market for the homes that closed in March is 51 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of March in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (22) is 69% below the level of March 2022 (71) and it is 8% below the inventory last month (24).  There were 11 new sales for the month of March.  This is 58% below the pace in March 2022 (26) and it is slightly above the pace last month (10).  There is a 2-month supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace.  The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $450,000 to $750,000 over the past year.  The median was $603,000 for the 8 homes that closed in March.  The homes that closed in the Russian River in April went from listing to pending in 79 days.

Santa Rosa:  Thirty-seven percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of March (155) is 42% below the inventory of a year ago (266) and it is 3% below the inventory last month (159).  Despite the uptick in listings in adjacent markets, it is not happening yet in Santa Rosa.  New sales in March (143) are 33% below the pace of last March (266) and they are 31% ahead of the pace last month (109).  There is a 1.1-month supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 125 homes closed in March in Santa Rosa was $738,000 compared to $727,000 a year ago.  This is a 1.5% increase.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in March is 51 days.  

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of March in Sebastopol is 27 homes.  This is 56% below the inventory last March (61) and slightly below the inventory last month (28).  There were 19 new sales for the month of March.  This is 37% below the pace in March 2022 (30) and it is equal to the pace last month (19).  There is a 1.4-month supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace.  The 13 homes that closed in Sebastopol in March went from listing to pending in 71 days.

Sonoma Valley:  The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (68) at the end of March in the Sonoma Valley is 38% below the inventory last March (110) and it is 12% ahead of the inventory of last month (61).  Seventy-nine percent of the available properties in the Sonoma Valley (54) are priced at $1,000,000, or more.  There were 36 new sales for the month. This is 38% below the 45 sales in March 2022 and it is 71% above the 21 sales last month.  There is a 1.9-month supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  The average Days on Market for the 26 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in March is 55 days.  The closings in the month had a selling price equal to 101% of the original listing price.  In March, 35% of the homes in the Sonoma Valley sold at a price and 31% of the homes showed a price less than the original asking price when they sold.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of March starts at $4,000,000.  Seventeen homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 27 in the twelve months prior to that.  In March, there were no new sales in this quartile.  There are 16 homes available in this quartile in March 2023 compared to 23 a year ago and 14 last month.  

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of March is 15 properties.  This is 42% below the inventory in March 2022 (26) and it is 29% below the 21 homes in inventory last month.  There were 22 sales in the month.  This is 35% below the pace of sales in March 2022 (34) and it is 29% ahead of the pace of last month (17).  There is a 0.7-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The days on market for the 16 homes that closed in March 2023 in Windsor is 49 days.  The median price ($815,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in April compares to a median price a year ago ($781,000) – a 4% increase.

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of March is 66 homes.  This is 65% above the number of mobile homes available in March 2022 (40) and it is 25% above the number of available mobile homes last month (53).  There were 30 new mobile home sales in March.  This is slightly above the pace of sales in March 2022 (29) and it is 7% ahead of the pace of sales last month (28).  There is a 2.2-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 19 mobile homes closed in March is 55 days and the median price was $215,000 compared to $200,000 a year ago. 

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of March is 261 properties. The current inventory is 11% below the number of lots in March 2022 (292) and it is 5% above the number of available lots last month (249). There were 25 new lot sales in March.  This is 44% below the pace of sales in March 2022 (45) and it is 39% ahead of the pace of lot sales last month (18).  There is a 10.4-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 20 lots closed in March is 111 days and the median price is $340,000 which is the same as a year ago.   

Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of March (210) is 28% below the inventory in March 2022 (293) and it is 9% above the inventory last month (193).  It is 57% below the inventory in March 2019 (487).  Sixty percent of the inventory in Napa County (139 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above.  New sales (90) are 31% below the pace of last year (131) and are 34% ahead of the 67 sales last month.  The sales pace is 13% below that of March 2019 (103).  There is a 2.3-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the homes closing in Napa County is currently 58 days.  In our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 79 homes closed in March in Napa County ($852,000) is 9% below the median price of a year ago ($933,000) and it is 24% ahead of the price in March 2019 ($689,000).  Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 93% of original list price.  In March, 32% of the homes in Napa County sold at a price that was more than the original asking price and 32% of the homes sold at a price that was less than the original asking price.  

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market currently begins at $4,000,000 in Napa County.  This is up from $3,500,000.  There has been a decrease of 22% for the number of closings (42) of Luxury Homes (sales price more than $4,000,000) in Napa County for the period 4/1/22 to 3/31/23 compared to 54 closings in the period 4/1/21 to 3/31//22.  This continues a trend where we see a decrease in this number of luxury home sales.  There are 53 luxury homes in inventory at the end of March 2023 compared to 58 homes in inventory at the end of March 2022 and 43 last month. There were 4 new Luxury Home sales in March compared to 4 last year and 2 last month.  This creates a 13-month supply of inventory.  Over the past five months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 91% of original asking price and the two homes that closed last month were on the market for 197 days.

American Canyon:  There are 18 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of March in American Canyon. Last year there were just 13 homes in inventory and there were 11 homes in inventory last month.  There were 16 new sales in the month.  This compares to 15 new homes sales last March and 8 new sales last month.  There is a 1.1-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for 7 homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 90 days. The median price of the homes that closed in American Canyon in March ($820,000) compares to a median price of ($840,000) a year ago.  The median price in American Canyon can fluctuate quite a bit from month to month.  The average price per square foot of the homes sold in American Canyon was at $281 last month.  This is below the $300 to $400 per square foot range where the sales have been over the past several years.

Napa:  Forty-three percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 90 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of March in the City of Napa. This is 42% below the supply at the end of March 2022 (156) and it is 7% above the inventory at the end of last month (84).  It is 69% below the inventory in 2019 (287).  New sales (57) were 36% below the pace of March 2022 (89) and they were 36% above the pace of last month (42). They were 23% below the 74 sales in March 2019.  There is a 1.6-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. There was a 3.9-month supply in 2/19.  The Days on Market for the 57 closings last month is 52 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in March was $900,000. This is 5% below the median price of the homes closed in March 2022 ($950,000) and it is 17% ahead of the price in March 2019 ($768,000).

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of March (81) is 21% below the level of 102 in March 2022 and it is 3% above the inventory last month (79).  There were15 new sales this month compared to 18 a year ago and 11 last month.  There is now a 5.4-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 10 closings last month is 66 days.  Fifty-five percent of the Luxury Market inventory (price more than $4,000,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (29 homes). There were no luxury home (price more than $4,000,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month and there were two new luxury home sales.

Angwin:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Angwin at the end of March (8) compares to 11 in March 2022 and 8 last month.  There was one new sale this month compared to 3 a year ago and one last month.  The average asking price for the 8 homes on the market in Angwin is $3,679,000.

Mobile Homes in Napa County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of March is 25 homes.  This is 67% above the number of mobile homes available in March 2022 (15) and it is 25% above the 20 available homes last month.  There were 16 new mobile home sales in March.  This compares to 17 home sales last March and 11 sales last month.  There is a 1.6-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 10 mobile homes closed in March is 70 days and the median price was $270,000.  This compares to a median price of $241,000 in March 2022 and $178,000 last month.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of March stands at 221.  This is 24% below the inventory in March 2022 (290) and it is 9% above the inventory last month (203).  New sales (36) in Mendocino County in March were 51% below the pace of March 2022 (73) and they were slightly above the pace last month (35).  There now is a 6.1-month supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 37 homes sold in Mendocino County in March is 105 days.  For our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the homes closed in March in Mendocino County was $489,000.  Generally, the median price of sold homes in Mendocino has been between $500,000 and $600,000.  Over the past four months, Mendocino County homes are selling at roughly 89% of original asking price.  In March, just one of the 36 homes in Mendocino County sold at a price greater than the original asking price.  Forty-one percent of the homes showed a price reduction at the time they sold (compared to 50% last month).

Ukiah:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of March in Ukiah is 45 homes.  This is 22% below the level of March 2022 (58) and it is 15% above the inventory last month (39).  There were 13 new sales for the month of March.  This is 57% below the 30 sales in March 2022 and it is slightly above the 12 sales last month.  There are 3.5 months of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 16 closings last month is 84 days.  The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from $450,000 to $640,000. The median price was $486,000 for the homes that closed in March.  

Redwood Valley and Calpella:  The inventory of homes for sale at the end of March in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 21 homes.  This compares to 26 homes in March 2022 and 14 homes last month.  There were 2 new sales for the month of March.  This compares to 8 sales in March 2022 and 5 new sales last month.  There is a 10.5-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $725,000.  There were four new closings in Redwood Valley/Calpella in March at a median price of $537,000 and the homes sold in 104 days. 

Hopland and Talmage:  The inventory of homes for sale at the end of March in Hopland and Talmage is 9 homes.  This compares to 11 homes in inventory at the end of March 2022 and 7 homes in inventory last month.  There was one new sales in the month of March.  This compares to 3 sales in March 2022 and no new sales last month.  There were no closings in this area last month.

Lake County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Lake County at the end of March stands at 399.  Approximately 32% of the inventory (127 homes) is in the communities of Clearlake and another 11% (42 homes) are in Lakeport.  The countywide inventory is 17% above the inventory in March 2022 (342) and it is also 11% above the inventory last month (342).  It compares to an inventory of 480 homes in March 2019.  Closed sales (82) in Lake County in March were 32% below the pace of March 2022 (120) and they were 52% above the pace last month (54).  There now is a 5.3-month supply of inventory in Lake County based on the existing sales pace.  The median Days on Market for the homes sold in Lake County in March is 44 days.  Usually “Days on Market” are traced from listing date to pending date, so the closing date would be somewhat longer. The median price of the homes closed in March in Lake County was $331,000. This is 3% above the median price in March 2022 ($320,000) and it is 38% above the median price last month ($240,000).  It is 56% above the median sales price of $212,500 in March 2019.  The homes sold in Lake County last month sold at 94% of original list price.

Marin County:  Marin County is often considered a “feeder” county to our North Bay Wine Country markets.  Marin County’s inventory (261 homes) is 45% below the 478 homes in March 2022 and it is 27% above the 206 homes in inventory last month.  It is 35% below the 755 homes available in March 2019.  New sales (192) were 26% below the number last March (260) and were 41% above the pace of last month (136).  They were 23% below the 248 sales in March 2019.  This creates a 1.4-month supply.  The median price of the 152 homes sold in Marin County in March is $1,325,000.  This is 12% below the median price a year ago ($1,510,000) and it is 15% above the median sales price in March 2019 ($1,150,000).