Wine Country and Northbay Real Estate Trends 

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for May 2023

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group and Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Ming Tree enjoyed 64 closings in May 2023 compared to 86 last May and 62 last month.  Since 2020, 2021 and 2022 were all unusual real estate markets, some observers are suggesting comparing current numbers to those of 2019.  In May 2019 we closed 48 homes.  This May we closed homes with a total value of $28 million compared to $39 million last year, $30 million last month and $29 million in 2/19.  The average selling price of the properties sold by BHGRE|WCG in May was $435,000. 

BHGRE|WCG-MT currently has 82 pending sales with a value of $32 million dollars.  In May 2019, we had 53 pending sales with a value of $32 million.  We are 30% behind our pending dollar volume last year.  We have 170 active listings with a value of $83 million dollars compared to 76 listings with a value of $61 million in 2019.  We are 4% ahead of last year in our listing unit volume.  Our average listing price is $488,000.

Congratulations to the following BHGRE|Wine Country Group-Ming Tree agents who had one or more closings in the month of May.  Jessica Spencer in Clearlake and Malachi Herrera in Eureka led all agents with 4 closings each and Mari Giblin, Brenda Lockhart, Ray Hellgren and The Thurber/Ross Team each had 3 closings.

Jessica Spencer (4), Summer Dahlquist (2), Carina De Herrera, Mari Giblin (3), Curtis Van Carter, Alicia Miller (2), Brenda Lockhart (3), Team Ramos (2), Barbara Cimino (2), Brandt Peterson (2), Jessica Hooten (2), Elizabeth Uribe (2), Cheryl Marinaro (2), Cheyenne Blue, Dave Hughes, Sandra Riggs, Tish Thames, Pippa Whelan, Jeff Ragan, Jose Mendoza, Thomas Harmon, Dave Smith, Denise Ridley, Sarah Brown, Kim Brown (2), Julie Lee, Leo Merle, Linda Alioto, Lisa Ladanyl, Robert Davis, Ray Hellgren (3), Tricia Wilwerding, Martha Saly, Sheila Deignan (2), The Thurber Ross Team (3), Maria Flores (2), Melanie Tash, Melanie Zuniga,Malachi Herrera (4) and Julie Lee.

National Trends

Across the nation, the inventory of homes for sale is low when compared to the pre-pandemic years.  Inventory is starting to grow, but slowly.  It grew much faster this time a year ago as sales started to slow as interest rates rose.  Last year inventory was rising at 4% per week.  This year it is flat or only slightly rising.  Current trends indicate that the 2023 inventory will be below 2022 inventory on a year over basis by mid-July and might end the year 10% lower.  Buyers are now figuring out how to purchase homes in the current interest rate environment.  National mortgage interest rates are currently 6.7% and if they stay below 7% the buyers will continue to purchase.  Many believe that they can refinance down the road as rates fall again.  Some real estate economists are calling this a “supply constrained market”.  In such a market, more supply will result in more sales.  The expectation has been that the appreciation rate for homes will moderate and be essentially flat or slightly negative for the year on a nationwide basis.  As of mid-June, the median price of all pending sales in the country is 3.6% higher than the figure from a year ago.  It was this time last year when interest rates spiked and sales prices fell.  The current pending sales indicate where we will be with closed sales in the months ahead.  Based on current trends – real estate values may have a slight overall uptick by yearend.  

North Bay Real Estate Trends for May 2023

For all the areas covered by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, there is an inventory of 2,136 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of May.  Inventory is 30% below that of a year ago (3,050) and it is 18% above the inventory last month (1,810).  Since 2020, 2021 and 2022 were all unusual real estate markets, some observers are suggesting comparing current numbers to those of 2019.  In May 2019 there were 4,838 homes in inventory in the North Bay.  That was near the peak for the last decade.  Current inventory is 56% below the 2/19 level.  There were 1,379 sales for the month of May.  This number is 7% below a year ago (1,480) and 30% above the pace of last month (1,058).  It is 14% below the number of sales in 5/19 (1,602).  One difference now is that this time last year, sales were starting to fall.  They were off 14% from May to June last year.  This year they are up 30%.  The median price of homes sold across our North Bay region in May was $750,000 compared to $765,000    (-2%) last May and $561,000 in May 2019 (+34%). 

I have been following a data point I call the “Price Reduction Ratio” (PRR) for the past couple of years.  Across the country, approximately 30% of the homes have a selling price lower than the original asking price.  For May 2023, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, our ratios are lower than the national average.  In the region combined, 24% of the homes sold in May had a selling price lower than the original asking price.  This compares to 23% last month and 16% a year ago.  The numbers were 22% for Napa County, 18% for Sonoma County and 33% for Mendocino County.  Conversely, the ratio of homes selling for more than the original asking price was 40% across the region.  This compares to 32% last month and 44% a year ago.  The numbers were 36% in Napa County, 55% in Sonoma County and 28% in Mendocino County. 

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of May stands at 641 homes.  This is 30% below the inventory in May 2022 (921) and it is 31% above the inventory last month (490).  It compares to 1,576 listings in May 2019.  Fifty-six percent of the available homes for sale in Sonoma County at this time (359) are priced at $1,000,000 or more.  New sales (436) in Sonoma County in May were 14% below the pace of May 2022 (509) and they were 32% above the pace last month (330).  There were 506 new sales in May 2019.  There is a 1.5-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 33 (Cloverdale) to 54 (Healdsburg) days.  For our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The average Days on Market for all the County is 40 days.  The median price of the 350 homes closed in May in Sonoma County was $840,000. This is 2% above the median price in May 2022 ($820,000).  It is 24% above the median price of $640,000 in May 2019.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 98% of their original list price.  In May, 55% of the homes in Sonoma County sold at a price more than the original asking price and 18% of the homes had a reduction in price before they sold.  We continue to see multiple offers on well-priced properties.

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price more than ($2,450,000).  There has been a 40% decrease in the number of Luxury Homes closed (137) from 6/1/22 to 5/31/23 compared to 230 closings in the period 6/1/21 to 5/31/22.  The inventory of luxury homes (163) is 10% above the inventory in May 2022 (148 homes) and it is 29% above the inventory last month (126).  The pace of new sales (27) in May this year is 80% above the pace of a year ago (15) and it is 125% above the pace last month (12).  The Days on Market for 14 Luxury Home closings was 63 days this May.  The Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in May was 40 days.  There is a 6-month supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 1.5-month supply in the overall Sonoma County market.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 97% of original list price.

Cloverdale:  There are 22 homes and condominiums available in Cloverdale.  This compares to 32 homes in inventory in May 2022 and 13 homes last month.  There were 6 new sales in May compared to 14 a year ago and 11 last month.  There is now a 3.7-month supply of inventory in Cloverdale based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 11 homes that closed in May is 33 days.  

Coastal Sonoma:  There are 12 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This compares to 6 homes in inventory in May 2022 and 11 homes last month.  There were 4 new sales in May compared to 8 a year ago and 3 last month.  

Healdsburg Trends:  There are 69 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month.  It is 18% below the inventory in May 2022 (84) and it is 26% ahead of the inventory last month (55).  New sales in May (24) were 9% above the pace of sales in May 2022 (22) and they 84% ahead of the pace of sales last month (13).  There are 2.9-months of available inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 16 homes that closed in May is 54 days.  

Oakmont:  There are just 8 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of May.  This is 71% below the inventory in May 2022 (28) and it is 20% below the inventory of last month (10).  New sales (15) were 32% below the sales pace of a year ago (22) and they were 38% below the pace of last month (24).  For the fourth month in a row the sales exceeded the number of listings available at the beginning of the month in Oakmont.  There is a 0.5-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high $500,000’s up to $849,000.  The median price was $710,000 for the 22 homes that closed in May.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in May is 34 days. 

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of May (62) is 43% below the inventory in May 2022 (109) and it is 29% below the inventory last month (48).  There were 54 new sales for the month.  This is 13% below the sales in May 2022 (62) and it is 64% above the sales pace last month (33).  The Petaluma market currently has 1.1 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 45 homes that closed in May was $923,000.  This is slightly below the median price last May ($940,000).  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in May is 45 days.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of May (24) is 48% below the inventory in May 2022 (46) and it is 14% above the inventory last month (21).  There were 45 new sales in Rohnert Park in May.  This sales pace is 6% below the 48 sales in May 2022 and it is 61% above the sales last month (28).  We’ve returned to a market in Rohnert Park where the number of sales in the month exceed the number of listings at the beginning of the month.  This was a trend here during the pandemic years.  There is a 0.5-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price ($700,000) of the 23 homes and condominiums that closed in May is 14% above the median price in May a year ago ($613,000).  Days on Market for the homes that closed in May is 34 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of May in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (51) is 25% below the level of May 2022 (68) and it is 59% above the inventory last month (32).  There were 25 new sales for the month of May.  This is 22% below the pace in May 2022 (32) and it is 32% above the pace last month (19).  There is a 2-month supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace.  The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $450,000 to $750,000 over the past year.  The median was $716,000 for the 15 homes that closed in May.  The homes that closed in the Russian River in May went from listing to pending in 44 days.

Santa Rosa:  Thirty-one percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of May (199) is 35% below the inventory of a year ago (307) and it is 15% above the inventory last month (173).  New sales in May (181) are 10% below the pace of last May (201) and they are 34% ahead of the 135 sales last month.  There is a 1.1-month supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 142 homes closed in May in Santa Rosa was $768,000 which is equal to the $768,000 price a year ago.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in May is 38 days.  

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of May in Sebastopol is 38 homes.  This is 50% below the inventory last May (71) and it is 66% above the inventory last month (23).  There were 20 new sales for the month of May. This is 33% below the pace in May 2022 (30) and it is 17% below the pace last month (24).  There is a 1.9-month supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace.  The 28 homes that closed in Sebastopol in May went from listing to pending in 43 days.

Sonoma Valley:  The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (119) at the end of May in the Sonoma Valley is 2% below the inventory last May (121) and it is 57% ahead of the inventory of last month (76).  Sixty-nine percent of the available properties in the Sonoma Valley (82) are priced at $1,000,000, or more.  There were 41 new sales for the month. This is 15% below the 48 sales in May 2022 and it is 24% ahead of the 33 sales last month.  There is a 2.9-month supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  The average Days on Market for the 32 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in May is 42 days.  The closings in the month had a selling price equal to 99% of the original listing price.  In May, 44% of the homes in the Sonoma Valley sold at a price in excess of the original list price and 25% of the homes showed a price less than the original asking price when they sold.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of May starts at $3,500,000, down from $4,750,000 last month.  25 homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 38 in the twelve months prior to that.  In May, there were six new sale in this quartile.  There are 30 homes available in this quartile in May 2023 compared to 34 a year ago and 27 last month.  As the weather has improved, more high-end listings have come to market.

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of May is 28 properties.  This is 39% below the inventory in May 2022 (46) and it is 12% ahead of the 25 homes in inventory last month.  There were 22 sales in the month.  This is 37% below the pace of sales in May 2022 (35) and it is 16% above the pace of last month (19).  There is a 1.3-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The days on market for the 29 homes that closed in May 2023 in Windsor is 41 days.  The median price ($850,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in May compares to a median price a year ago ($885,000) – a 4% decrease.

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of May is 71 homes.  This is 39% above the number of mobile homes available in May 2022 (51) and it is equal to the number of available mobile homes last month (71).  There were 44 new mobile home sales in May.  This is 69% above the pace of sales in May 2022 (26) and it is 29% ahead of the pace of sales last month (34).  There is a 1.6-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 36 mobile homes closed in May is 63 days and the median price was $208,000 compared to $215,000 a year ago and $209,000 last month. 

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of May is 307 properties. The current inventory is essentially equal to the number of lots in May 2022 (306) and it is 13% above the number of available lots last month (273). There were 33 new lot sales in May.  This is 32% above the pace of sales in May 2022 (25) and it is 32% ahead of the pace of lot sales last month (25).  There is a 9.3-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 19 lots closed in May is 118 days and the median price is $306,000 compared to $413,000 a year ago.  

Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of May (272) is 7% below the inventory in May 2022 (293) and it is 13% above the inventory last month (241).  It is 52% below the inventory in May 2019 (572). Sixty-eight percent of the inventory in Napa County (185 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above.  New sales (114) are 14% below the pace of last year (133) and are 31% ahead of the 87 sales last month.  The sales pace is 21% below that of May 2019 (144).  There is a 2.4-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the homes closing in Napa County is currently 50 days.  In our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 93 homes closed in May in Napa County ($875,000) is 6% below the median price of a year ago ($933,000) and it is 23% ahead of the price in May 2019 ($713,000).  Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 95% of original list price.  In May, 36% of the homes in Napa County sold at a price that was more than the original asking price and 22% of the homes sold at a price that was less than the original asking price.  

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market currently begins at $4,100,000 in Napa County.  This is down from $4,500,000 last month.  There has been a decrease of 37% for the number of closings (33) of Luxury Homes (sales price more than $4,100,000) in Napa County for the period 6/1/22 to 5/31/23 compared to 52 closings in the period 6/1/21 to 5/31/22.  This continues a trend where we see a decrease in the number of luxury home sales.  There are 68 luxury homes in inventory at the end of May 2023 compared to 66 homes in inventory at the end of May 2022 and 62 last month. There were 5 new Luxury Home sales in May compared to 6 last year and 3 last month.  This creates a 14-month supply of inventory.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 90% of original asking price and the 2 homes that closed last month were on the market for 34 days.

American Canyon:  There are 11 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of May in American Canyon. Last year there were 15 homes in inventory and there were 16 homes in inventory last month.  There were 13 new sales in the month.  This compares to 11 new homes sales last May and 10 new sales last month.  There is a 0.8-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for 11 homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 26 days. The median price of the homes that closed in American Canyon in May ($650,000) compares to a median price of ($755,000) a year ago.  The median price in American Canyon can fluctuate quite a bit from month to month.  The average price per square foot of the homes sold in American Canyon was at $352 last month.  This is in line the $300 to $400 per square foot range where the sales have been over the past several years.

Napa:  Forty-six percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 124 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of May in the City of Napa. This is 17% below the supply at the end of May 2022 (149) and it is 8% above the inventory at the end of last month (115).  It is 62% below the inventory in 2019 (328).  New sales (77) were 14% below the pace of May 2022 (89) and they were 57% above the pace of last month (49). They were 22% below the 99 sales in May 2019.  There is a 1.6-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. There was a 3.3-month supply in 2/19.  The Days on Market for the 53 closings last month is 46 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in May was $886,000. This is 4% below the median price of the homes closed in May 2022 ($920,000) and it is 25% ahead of the price in May 2019 ($710,000).

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of May (113) is 3% above the level of 110 in May 2022 and it is 24% above the inventory last month (91).  There were 22 new sales this month compared to 26 a year ago and 20 last month.  There is now a 5.1-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 23 closings last month is 64 days.  Fifty-four percent of the Luxury Market inventory (price more than $4,100,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (37 homes). There was one luxury home (price more than $4,100,000) closing in the Up Valley Market last month and there was one new luxury home sale.

Angwin:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Angwin at the end of May (12) compares to 12 in May 2022 and 9 last month.  There were no new sales this month compared to 2 a year ago and one last month.  The average asking price for the 12 homes on the market in Angwin is $3,500,000.

Mobile Homes in Napa County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of May is 26 homes.  This is 117% above the number of mobile homes available in May 2022 (12) and it is 8% above the 24 available homes last month.  There were 13 new mobile home sales in May.  This compares to 14 home sales last May and 15 sales last month.  There is a 2-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 18 mobile homes closed in May is 71 days and the median price was $266,000.  This compares to a median price of $223,000 in May 2022 and $201,000 last month.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of May stands at 291.  This is 13% below the inventory in May 2022 (336) and it is 16% above the inventory last month (250).  New sales (65) in Mendocino County in May were 7% above the pace of May 2022 (61) and they were 91% above the pace last month (34).  There now is a 4.5-month supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 36 homes sold in Mendocino County in May is 98 days.  For our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the homes closed in May in Mendocino County was $532,000.  Generally, the median price of sold homes in Mendocino has been between $475,000 and $600,000.  Over the past four months, Mendocino County homes are selling at roughly 92% of original asking price.  In May, 28% of the homes in Mendocino County sold at a price greater than the original asking price.  33% of the homes showed a price reduction at the time they sold.

Ukiah:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of May in Ukiah is 59 homes.  This is 21% below the level of May 2022 (75) and it is 18% above the inventory last month (50).  There were 13 new sales for the month of May.  This is 38% below the 21 sales in May 2022 and it is 63% above the 8 sales last month.  There are 4.5 months of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 9 closings last month is 91 days.  The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from $450,000 to $640,000. The median price was $490,000 for the homes that closed in May.  

Redwood Valley and Calpella:  The inventory of homes for sale at the end of May in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 27 homes.  This compares to 36 homes in May 2022 and 23 homes last month.  There were 4 new sales for the month of May.  This compares to 6 sales in May 2022 and 1 new sale last month.  There is a 6.8-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $725,000.  There was one closing in Redwood Valley/Calpella in May at a price of $540,000 and the home sold in 23 days. 

Hopland and Talmage:  The inventory of homes for sale at the end of May in Hopland and Talmage is 8 homes.  This compares to 14 homes in inventory at the end of May 2022 and 8 homes in inventory last month.  There were 3 new sales in the month of May.  This compares to 2 sales in May 2022 and two new sales last month.  There were four closings in this area last month.  The median price of the 4 closed homes was $428,000 and they closed in 85 days.

Lake County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Lake County at the end of May stands at 482.  Approximately 28% of the inventory (136 homes) is in the communities of Clearlake and another 12% (57 homes) are in Lakeport.  The countywide inventory is 13% above the inventory in May 2022 (425) and it is 16% above the inventory last month (417).  It compares to an inventory of 571 homes in May 2019.  Closed sales (94) in Lake County in May were 18% below the pace of May 2022 (114) and they were 40% above the pace last month (67).  There now is a 6.6-month supply of inventory in Lake County based on the existing sales pace.  The median Days on Market for the homes sold in Lake County in May is 30 days.  Usually “Days on Market” are traced from listing date to pending date, so the closing date would be somewhat longer.  The median price of the homes closed in May in Lake County was $347,000. This is 4% above the median price in May 2022 ($334,500) and it is 16% above the median price last month ($300,000).  It is 39% above the median sales price of $250,000 in May 2019.  The homes sold in Lake County last month sold at 96% of original list price.

Marin County:  Marin County is often considered a “feeder” county to our North Bay Wine Country markets.  Marin County’s inventory (349 homes) is 32% below the 514 homes in May 2022 and it is 14% above the 306 homes in inventory last month.  It is 60% below the 862 homes available in May 2019.  New sales (262) were 10% below the number last May (291) and were 30% above the pace of last month (202).  They were 10% below the 291 sales in May 2019.  There is a 1.3-month supply of inventory at the end of May 2023.  The median price of the 226 homes sold in Marin County in May is $1,564,000.  This is 5% below the median price a year ago ($1,650,000) and it is 27% above the median sales price in May 2019 ($1,236,000).