Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for September 2022

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group and Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Ming Tree enjoyed 73 closings in September 2022 compared to 66 last September and 80 last month.  In September, we closed homes with a total value of $27 million compared to $32 million last year and $28 million last month.  The average selling price of the properties sold by BHGRE|WCG in September was $380,319. 

BHGRE|WCG currently has 120 pending sales with a value of $58 million dollars.  We are 21% ahead of our pending unit volume last year.  We have 190 active listings with a value of $95 million dollars.  We are 157% ahead of last year in our listing unit volume.  Our average listing price is $500,000.

Congratulations to the following BHGRE|Wine Country Group agents who had one or more closings in the month of September.  Jesicca Spencer led all agents with 4 closings.

Jessica Spencer, Sarah Duschka, Maria Flores, Jessica Hooten, Robert Davis, Summer Dahlquist, Cheryl Marinaro, Denise Ridley, Dave Hughes, Carina De Herrera, Paige Hotchkiss, Ray Hellgren, Jana Adams, Mari Giblin, Sheila Deignan, Randy Coffman, Dave Hughes, Annalise Von Borstel, Brandt Peterson, Marsha Wedan, Carina De Herrera, Cassey Alanis, Darla McKenzie, Daryush Wertime, Dave Smith, Denise Ridley, J Hunter, Jeff Ragan, Joe Hebel, Karen Mann, Kim Brown, Mara Kahn, Zebi Bojarsky, Melanie Zuniga, Michelle Baker, Patricia Vance, Rollin Trehearne, Sandra Rigss, Silvia Schagerer, Taran Pitzer, and Theresa Kessenich.

And Congratulations to our 3^rd Quarter Top Producers:

Clearlake:  Jessica Spencer;  Eureka:  Annalise Von Borstel, Melanie Zuniga and Malachi Herrera;  Fortuna:  Taran Pitzer and Shannon Kerr;  Lakeport:  Carina DeHerrera and Paige Hotchkiss;  Petaluma:  Parmeeta Ghoman;  Santa Rosa:  Jana Adams and Mari Giblin; Sebastopol:  Martha Saly, Ann Conger and Liz Uribe;  Sonoma:  Sheila Deignan;  St. Helena:  Linda Alioto and Rianne Pasquariello;  Ukiah:  Team Ramos and Amy Wray;  

National Trends

In Fannie Mae’s (Federal National Mortgage Association) updated forecast this week, interest rates are projected to crest near 7% and then settle in the low 6% range by the end of 2023.  National home sales are projected to be approximately 21% lower in 2023 than in 2022.  National home prices are expected to fall by 1.5% during 2023.  These numbers will certainly vary in local markets.

Inventory is low on a national basis (40% lower than in a normal year at this time) but sales volume is even lower – so inventory is growing.  Buyer demand has dropped since rates passed 5.5%, but sellers’ need to sell  is not present – so prices are relatively stable.  Failed escrows, as evidenced by properties being sold and then coming back on the market, are at 17% of all sales compared to 5% of all sales at the beginning of the year.

North Bay Real Estate Trends for September 2022

For all of the areas covered by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, there is an inventory of 2,884 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of September.  Inventory is 7% below that of a year ago (3,085) and it is 5% above the inventory last month (2,747). Inventory remains low on a historical basis.  At times, the inventory has exceeded 10,000 homes in the BAREIS region.  There were 1,071 sales for the month of September.  This number is 35% below a year ago (1,646) and 19% below the pace of last month (1,313).  The median price of homes sold across the nation in September was approximately $435,000.  The median price in our North Bay region was $709,000. 

Some national prognosticators believe that buyer enthusiasm cooled when mortgage rates exceeded 5.5% in early September.  We are seeing more mortgage activity in variable rate loans with lower start rates and in buyers requesting seller credits for rate buy downs.  The level of interest rates will be a key going into 2023.

I have been following a data point I call the “Price Reduction Ratio” (PRR) for the past year, or so.  Across the country approximately 42% of the homes currently put into the MLS are having price reductions before they sell.  In much of our region, the ratios are lower.  For September 2022, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, the ratio is 30% for Sonoma County, 27% for Napa County and 51% for Mendocino County.  Conversely, the ratio of homes selling in excess of Original List Price is 37% in Sonoma County, 40% in Napa County and only 15% in Mendocino County.  Though our ratios are lower locally, the trend is consistent as we are seeing an increase in homes selling with price reductions up to 36% from 17% a year ago for our entire region.

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of September stands at 747 homes.  This is 28% below the inventory in September 2021 (1,044) and it is 7% above the inventory last month (698).  New sales (330) in Sonoma County in September were 45% below the pace of September 2021 (603) and they were 19% below the pace last month (409).  There is a 2.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 14 (Coastal Sonoma) to 153 (Healdsburg) days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 47 days.  The median price of the 340 homes closed in September in Sonoma County was $763,000. This is 7% above the median price in September 2021 ($712,000).  Nearly 50% of the available homes for sale in Sonoma County at this time (348) are priced at $1,000,000 or more.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 99% of their original list price.  In September, 37% of the homes in Sonoma County sold at a price in excess of the original list price and 30% of the homes had a reduction in price before they sold.

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,900,000).  There has been a 4% decrease in the number of Luxury Homes closed (347) from 10/1/21 to 9/30/22 compared to 360 closings in the period 10/1/20 to 9/30/21.  The inventory of luxury homes (182) is 17% below the inventory in September 2021 (220 homes) and it is 10% above the inventory last month (165).  The pace of new sales (19) in September this year is 47% below the pace of a year ago (36) and it is 27% below the pace last month (26).  There is a slowing of activity in this high quartile sector.  The Days on Market for 19 Luxury Home closings was 121 days this September compared to 54 days a year ago. and 47 Days on market for all closed properties in the County in September.  There is a 9.6 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 2.3 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 97% of original list price.

Cloverdale:  There are 24 homes and condominiums available in Cloverdale.  This compares to 42 homes in inventory in September 2021 and 24 homes last month.  There were 9 new sales in September compared to 13 a year ago and 8 last month.  There is now a 2.7 months supply of inventory in Cloverdale based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 8 homes that closed in September is 70 days.  

Coastal Sonoma:  There are 14 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This compares to 9 homes in inventory in September 2021 and 15 homes last month.  There were 6 new sales in September compared to 7 a year ago and 2 last month.  There is now a 2.3 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 2 homes that closed in September is 14 days. 

Healdsburg Trends:  There are 62 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month.  This is 50% below the inventory in September 2021 (123) and it is 9% above the inventory last month (57).  New sales in September (14) were 56% below the pace of sales in September 2021 (32) and they were 18% above the sales pace last month (17).  The months of available inventory is 4.4 months at the end of September based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 11 homes that closed in September is a whopping 153 days. 

Oakmont:  There are 20 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of September.  This is 62% below the inventory in September 2021 (53) and it is 18% above the inventory of last month (17).  New sales (6) were 82% below the sales pace of a year ago (34) and 73% below the pace of last month (22).  There is a 3.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high $500,000’s up to $849,000.  The median price was $750,000 for the 15 homes that closed in September.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in September is 56 days.  

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of September (90) is 9% below the inventory in September 2021 (99) and it is 18% above the inventory last month (75).  There were 48 new sales for the month.  This is 32% below the sales in September 2021 (71) and it is 13% below the sales pace last month (55).  The Petaluma market currently has 1.9 months supply of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 42 homes that closed in September was $885,000.  This is 2% above the median price last September ($868,000).  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in September is 33 days.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of September (28) is 35% below the inventory in September 2021 (43) and it is 7% below the inventory last month (30).  There were 36 new sales in Rohnert Park in September.  This sales pace is 5% below the 38 sales in September 2021 and it is slightly above the sales last month (35).  There is a 0.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  This remains a very tight market.  The median price ($680,000) of the 30 homes and condominiums that closed in September is 7% above the median price in September a year ago ($635,000).  Days on Market for the homes that closed in September is 34 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of September in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (59) is 3% below the level of September 2021 (61) and it is 16% above the inventory last month (51).  There were 18 new sales for the month of September.  This is 53% below the pace in September 2021 (38) and it is 25% below the pace last month (24).  There is a 3.3 months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace.  The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $400,000 to $783,000 over the past year.  The median was $684,000 for the 24 homes that closed in September.  The homes that closed in the Russian River in April went from listing to pending in 42 days.

Santa Rosa:  Thirty-three percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of September (248) is 40% below the inventory of a year ago (410) and it is 12% above the inventory last month (222).  New sales in September (116) are 54% below the pace of last September (256) and they are 27% below the pace last month (161).  There is a 2.1 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 143 homes closed in September in Santa Rosa was $686,000 compared to $661,000 a year ago.  This is a 4% increase.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in September is 46 days.  

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of September in Sebastopol is 46 homes.  This is 22% below the inventory last September (59) and 6% below the inventory last month (49).  There were 24 new sales for the month of September.  This is 29% below the pace in September 2021 (34) and it is 23% below the pace last month (31).  There is a 1.9 months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace.  The 18 homes that closed in Sebastopol in September went from listing to pending in 37 days.

Sonoma Valley:  The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (104) at the end of September in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 19% below the inventory last September (128) and it is 8% above the inventory of last month (96).  Seventy-four percent of the available properties in the Sonoma Valley (74) are priced at $1,000,000, or more.  This percentage is up from 69% last month.  There were 26 new sales for the month. This is 19% below the 57 sales in September 2021 and it is 8% below the 30 sales last month.  There is a 4 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  This is the first time that inventory has reached a four month supply in many years.  The average Days on Market for the 28 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in September is 39 days.  The closings in the month had a selling price equal to 98% of the original listing price.  In September, 27% of the homes in the Sonoma Valley sold at a price in excess of the original list price and 37% of the homes had a reduction in price before they sold.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of September starts at $3,750,000.  Twenty-nine homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 27 in the twelve months prior to that.  In September, there were three new sales in this quartile.  There are 27 homes available in this quartile in September 2022 compared to 31 a year ago and 27 last month.  The one home that closed in excess of $3,750,000 in the month sold in one day and had a selling price equal to 104% of the original listing price.  

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of September is 37 properties.  This is 21% below the inventory in September 2021 (47) and it is equal to the 37 homes in inventory last month.  There were 15 sales in the month.  This is 65% below the pace of sales in September 2021 (43) and it is 56% below the pace of last month (34).  There is a 2.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The days on market for the 28 homes that closed in September 2021 in Windsor is 47 days.  The median price ($813,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in April is 5% above the median price a year ago ($772,000).

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of September is 52 homes.  This is 33% below the number of mobile homes available in September 2021 (78) and it is essentially equal to the number of available mobile homes last month (51).  There were 32 new mobile home sales in September.  This is 16% below the pace of sales in September 2021 (38) and it is 19% above the pace of sales last month (27).  There is a 1.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 18 mobile homes closed in September is 53 days and the median price was $193,000.  This median price is 3% below the median price of $199,000 in September 2021.

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of September is 288 properties. The current inventory is 23% below the number of lots in September 2021 (371) and it is equal to the number of available lots last month (288). There were 33 new lot sales in September.  This is 13% below the pace of sales in September 2021 (38) and it is 7% above the pace of lot sales last month (31).  There is a 7.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 21 lots closed in September is 162 days and the median price is $335,000 compared to $320,000 a year ago.   

Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of September (296) is 24% below the inventory in September 2021 (389) and it is 5% above the inventory last month (281).  Sixty-three percent of the inventory in Napa County (185 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above.   New sales (84) are 33% below the pace of last year (125) and are 16% below the 100 sales last month.  There is a 3.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the homes closing in Napa County is currently 39 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 84 homes closed in September in Napa County ($895,000) is 9% above the median price of a year ago ($818,000).  Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 95% of original list price.  In September, 40% of the homes in Napa County sold at a price in excess of the original list price and 27% of the homes had a reduction in price before they sold.  

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $4,000,000 in Napa County at this time.  There has been a decrease of 39% for the number of closings (44) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $4,000,000) in Napa County for the period 10/1/21 to 9/30/22 compared to 61 closings in the period 10/1/20 to 9/30/21.  This continues last month’s trend where we see a decrease in this number.  The decrease in stock values in the Bay Area tech companies and the passing of the COVID “city escape” may be factors in this cooling.  There are 74 luxury homes in inventory at the end of September 2022 compared to 79 homes in inventory at the end of September 2021 and 69 last month. There were 5 new Luxury Home sales in September compared to 1 last year and 3 last month.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 86% of original list price.

American Canyon:  There are 20 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of September in American Canyon. Last year at this time there were also 20 homes in inventory and there were 17 homes in inventory last month.  There were 10 new sales in the month.  This compares to 14 new homes sales last September and 8 new sales last month.  There is a 2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for 9 homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 53 days. The median price of the homes that closed in American Canyon in September ($740,000) is 1.3% below the median price of a year ago ($750,000).  The average price per square foot of the homes sold in American Canyon was at $334 last month.  This is consistent with the $300 to $400 per square foot range where the sales have been over the past several years.

Napa:  Fifty-one percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 151 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of September in the City of Napa. This is 30% below the supply at the end of September 2021 (216) and it is 7% above the inventory at the end of last month (141).  New sales (58) were 30% below the pace of September 2021 (83) and they were 16% below the pace of last month (69). There is a 2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 73 closings last month is 42 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in September was $940,000. This is 15% above the median price of the homes closed in September 2021 ($820,000).

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of September (105) is 18% below the level of 128 in September 2021 and it is essentially equal to the inventory last month (104).  There were 13 new sales this month compared to 24 a year ago and 21 last month.  There is now a 8.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 18 closings last month is 40 days.  Fifty-eight percent of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $4,000,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (43 homes). There were no luxury home (price in excess of $4,000,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month and there were four new luxury home sales.

Angwin:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Angwin at the end of September (8) is 50% below the level of 16 in September 2021 and it is 33% below the inventory last month (12).  There was one new sale this month compared to 6 a year ago and 2 last month.  There is now a 8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median asking price for the 8 homes on the market in Angwin is $2,200,000.

Mobile Homes in Napa County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of September is 24 homes.  This is 42% below the number of mobile homes available in September 2021 (41) and it is 14% above the 21 available homes last month.  There were 9 new mobile home sales in September.  This compares to 10 home sales last September and 11 sales last month.  There is a 2.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 14 mobile homes closed in September is 50 days and the median price was $209,000.  This compares to a median price of $205,000 in September 2021 and $257,000 last month.  The median price of sold mobile homes in Napa varies quite a bit from month to month based on where they are taking place.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of September stands at 305.  This is 34% above the inventory in September 2021 (228) and it is essentially equal to the inventory last month (303).  New sales (55) in Mendocino County in September were 7% below the pace of September 2021 (57) and they were 20% below the pace last month (66).  There now is a 5.8 months supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 49 homes sold in Mendocino County in September is 77 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the homes closed in September in Mendocino County was $490,000. This is 2% below the median price in September 2021 ($500,000).  Over the past four months, Mendocino County homes are selling at roughly 90% of original list price.  In September, 15% of the homes in Mendocino County sold at a price in excess of the original list price and 51% of the homes had a reduction in price before they sold.

Ukiah:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of September in Ukiah is 66 homes.  This is 20% above the level of September 2021 (55) and it is 3% above the inventory last month (64).  There were 19 new sales for the month of September.  This is 12% ahead of the number of sales in September 2021 (17) and it is 24% below the sales last month (25).  There is 3.5 months of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 17 closings last month is 91 days.  The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from $370,000 to $625,000. The median price was $520,000 for the homes that closed in September.  

Redwood Valley and Calpella:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of September in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 27 homes.  This compares to 23 homes in September 2021 and 34 homes last month.  There were 9 new sales for the month of September.  This compares to 4 sales in September 2021 and 8 new sales last month.  There is a 3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $725,000.  There were 8 closings in Redwood Valley/Calpella in September at a median price of $601,000 and the homes sold in 64 days. 

Hopland and Talmage:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of September in Hopland and Talmage is 9 homes.  This compares to 9 homes in inventory at the end of September 2021 and 12 homes in inventory last month.  There were 2 new sales in the month of September.  This compares to no sales in September 2021 and one new sale last month.  There was one closing of in this area last month.

Lake County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Lake County at the end of September stands at 524.  Approximately 29% of the inventory (154 homes) is in the communities of Clearlake.  The countywide inventory is 23% above the inventory in September 2021 (427) and it is 5% above the inventory last month (499). Closed sales (91) in Lake County in September were 4% below the pace of September 2021 (95) and they were 11% above the pace last month (82).  There now is a 5.9 months supply of inventory in Lake County based on the existing sales pace.  The median Days on Market for the homes sold in Lake County in September is 32 days.  Usually “Days on Market” are traced from listing date to pending date, so the closing date would be somewhat longer.  The median price of the homes closed in September in Lake County was $280,000. This is 18% below the median price in September 2021 ($340,000) and 9% below the median price last month ($309,000).  The homes sold in Lake County last month sold at 94% of original list price compared to 97% a year ago.

Marin County:  Marin County is often considered a “feeder” county to our North Bay Wine Country markets.  Marin County’s inventory (449 homes) is 12% below the 508 homes in September 2021 and it is 30% above the 346 homes in inventory last month.  New sales (186) were 39% below the number last September (305) and were 14% below the pace of last month (215).  This creates a 2.4 months supply.  The median price of the 177 homes sold in Marin County in September is $1,435,000.  This is 3% above the median price a year ago ($1,400,000).