Wine Country and Northbay Real Estate Trends 

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for August 2022

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group and Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Ming Tree enjoyed 60 closings in August 2022 compared to 68 last August and 71 last month.  In August, we closed homes with a total value of $28 million compared to $49 million last year and $35 million last month.  The average selling price of the properties sold by BHGRE|WCG in August was $467,000. 

BHGRE|WCG currently has 107 pending sales with a value of $61 million dollars.  We are 70% ahead of our pending unit volume last year.  We have 195 active listings with a value of $110 million dollars.  We are 400% ahead of last year in our listing unit volume.  Our average listing price is $564,000.

Congratulations to the following BHGRE|Wine Country Group agents who had one or more closings in the month of August.  Dave Hughes led all agents with 6 closings.

Jessica Spencer, Sarah Duschka, Maria Flores, Jessica Hooten, Robert Davis, Cheryl Marinaro, Denise Ridley, Dave Hughes, Carina De Herrera, Jana Adams, Mari Giblin, Melinda Scalese, Heather Thurber, Rob Ross, Laurie Parris, Herb Heil, Sheila Deignan, Rianne Pasquariello, Linda Alioto, Amy Wray, Annalise Von Borstel, Daria McKenzie, Daryush Wertime, Dave Smith, J Hunter, Nancy Calderon, Jeff Ragan, Jill Rake, Josh Mohland, Karen Mann, Kathy McGuire, Kim Brown, Lisa Ladanyl, Larry Doss, Malachi Herrera, Melanie Scalese, Matt Vegvary, Misty Platt, Natalie Hill, Nicole Moktan, Paige Hotchkiss, Patricia Vance, Patty Marken, Rollin Trehearne, Shannon Kerr, Taran Pitzer, Team Ramos, Tricia Wilwerding, Mara Kahn and Zebi Borjarsky.

National Trends

Mortgage rates in the 6% range are the highest that they have been since 2008. In Fannie Mae’s (Federal National Mortgage Association) updated forecast this week, interest rates are projected to remain in the 5.5% range now through the end of 2023.  Home sales are projected to be approximately 17.2% lower in 2023 than in 2022.  New home sales are projected to fall at a higher rate than existing home sales. Home price appreciation is expected to be flat for 2023.

North Bay Real Estate Trends for August 2022

For all of the areas covered by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, there is an inventory of 2,747 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of August.  Inventory is 14% below that of a year ago (3,180) and it is 13% below the inventory last month (3,163).  This is the second month in a row where inventory has dropped on a month to month basis.  Inventory remains low on a historical basis.  At times, the inventory has exceeded 10,000 homes in the BAREIS region.  There were 1,176 sales for the month of August.  This number is 18% below a year ago (1,680) and 21% ahead of the pace of last month (1,144).  The median price of homes sold across the nation in August was approximately $440,000.  The median price in our North Bay region was $738,000. 

I have been following a data point I call the “Price Reduction Ratio” (PRR) for the past year, or so.  Across the country approximately 40% of the homes currently put into the MLS are having price reductions before they eventually sell.  In much of our region, the ratios are lower.  For August 2022, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, the ratio range from 27% for Sonoma County, 34% for Napa County and 49% for Mendocino County.  Conversely, the ratio of homes selling in excess of Original List Price are 42% in Sonoma County, 34% in Napa County and only 5% in Mendocino County.  Though our ratios are lower locally, the trend is consistent as we are seeing an increase in homes selling with price reductions up to 37% from 22% a year ago for our entire region.

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of August stands at 698 homes.  This is 41% below the inventory in August 2021 (1,181) and it is 17% below the inventory last month (842).  New sales (424) in Sonoma County in August were 32% below the pace of August 2021 (627) and they were 15% above the pace last month (368).  There is a 1.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 26 (Coastal Sonoma) to 70 (Healdsburg) days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 38 days.  The median price of the 374 homes closed in August in Sonoma County was $793,000. This is 7% above the median price in August 2021 ($744,000).  Nearly 50% of the available homes for sale in Sonoma County at this time (341) are priced at $1,000,000 or more.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 101% of their original list price.  In August, 42% of the homes in Sonoma County sold at a price in excess of the original list price and 27% of the homes had a reduction in price before they sold.

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1.800,000).  There has been a 1% decrease in the number of Luxury Homes closed (411) from 9/1/21 to 8/31/22 compared to 414 closings in the period 9/1/20 to 8/31/21.  The inventory of luxury homes (173) is 30% below the inventory in August 2021 (247 homes) and it is 7% below the inventory last month (185).  The pace of new sales (34) in August this year is 8% below the pace of a year ago (37) and it is 3% above the pace last month (33).  There is a slowing of activity in this high quartile sector.  The Days on Market for 31 Luxury Home closings was 55 days this August compared to 58 days a year ago. and 38 Days on market for all closed properties in the County in August.  There is a 5.1 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 1.6 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 99% of original list price.

Cloverdale:  There are 24 homes and condominiums available in Cloverdale.  This compares to 46 homes in inventory in August 2021 and 25 homes last month.  There were 7 new sales in August compared to 20 a year ago and 9 last month.  There is now a 3.4 months supply of inventory in Cloverdale based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 9 homes that closed in August is 66 days.  

Coastal Sonoma:  There are 15 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This compares to 10 homes in inventory in August 2021 and 10 homes last month.  There were 2 new sales in August compared to 12 a year ago and 2 last month.  There is now a 7.5 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the one home that closed in August is 26 days. 

Healdsburg Trends:  There are 57 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month.  This is 58% below the inventory in August 2021 (136) and it is 11% below the inventory last month (64).  It is the lowest inventory in Healdsburg since February 2015.  New sales in August (17) were 43% below the pace of sales in August 2021 (30) and they were equal to the sales pace last month (17).  The months of available inventory is 3.4 months at the end of August based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 22 homes that closed in August is 70 days.  

Oakmont:  There are 17 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of August.  This is 75% below the inventory in August 2021 (67) and it is 39% below the inventory of last month (28).  New sales (23) were 28% below the sales pace of a year ago (32) and 130% above the pace of last month (10).  There is a 0.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high $500,000’s up to $849,000.  The median price was $630,000 for the 11 homes that closed in August.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in August is 40 days.  

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of August (76) is 30% below the inventory in August 2021 (108) and it is 25% below the inventory last month (101).  There were 58 new sales for the month.  This is 17% below the sales in August 2021 (70) and it is 32% above the sales pace last month (44).  The Petaluma market currently has 1.3 months supply of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 55 homes that closed in August was $910,000.  This is 12% above the median price last August ($815,000).  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in August is 27 days.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of August (30) is 46% below the inventory in August 2021 (55) and it is 27% below the inventory last month (41).  There were 38 new sales in Rohnert Park in August.  This sales pace is 22% below the 49 sales in August 2021 and it is 12% above the sales last month (34).  There is a 0.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  This remains a very tight market.  The median price ($770,000) of the 31 homes and condominiums that closed in August is 21% above the median price in August a year ago ($634,000).  Days on Market for the homes that closed in August is 34 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of August in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (51) is 33% below the level of August 2021 (76) and it is 14% below the inventory last month (59).  There were 24 new sales for the month of August.  This is 25% below the pace in August 2021 (32) and it is 33% above the pace last month (18).  There is a 2.1 months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace.  The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $400,000 to $783,000 over the past year.  The median was $630,000 for the 18 homes that closed in August.  The homes that closed in the Russian River in April went from listing to pending in 44 days.

Santa Rosa:  Thirty-two percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of August (222) is 50% below the inventory of a year ago (448) and it is 20% below the inventory last month (279).  New sales in August (171) are 36% below the pace of last August (276) and they are 15% above the pace last month (149).  There is a 1.3 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 143 homes closed in August in Santa Rosa was $735,000 compared to $675,000 a year ago.  This is a 9% increase.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in August is 39 days.  

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of August in Sebastopol is 49 homes.  This is 35% below the inventory last August (75) and 25% below the inventory last month (65).  There were 32 new sales for the month of August.  This is 3% below the pace in August 2021 (33) and it is 46% above the pace last month (22).  There is a 1.5 months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace.  The 23 homes that closed in Sebastopol in August went from listing to pending in 27 days.

Sonoma Valley:  The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (96) at the end of August in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 34% below the inventory last August (146) and it is 17% below the inventory of last month (115).  Sixty-nine percent of the available properties in the Sonoma Valley (66) are priced at $1,000,000, or more. There were 30 new sales for the month. This is 44% below the 54 sales in August 2021 and it is 21% below the 38 sales last month.  There is a 3.2 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  The average Days on Market for the 30 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in August is 39 days.  The closings in the month had a selling price equal to 95% of the original listing price.  In August, 32% of the homes in the Sonoma Valley sold at a price in excess of the original list price and 29% of the homes had a reduction in price before they sold.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of August starts at $4,000,000.  Twenty-one homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 26 in the twelve months prior to that.  In August, there was no new sales in this quartile.  There are 24 homes available in this quartile in August 2022 compared to 23 a year ago and 23 last month.  The one home that closed in excess of $4,000,000 in the month had a selling price equal to 101% of the original listing price.  

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of August is 37 properties.  This is 36% below the inventory in August 2021 (58) and it is 16% below the 44 homes in inventory last month.  There were 33 sales in the month.  This is 27% above the pace of sales in August 2021 (26) and it is 83% above the pace of last month (18).  There is a 1.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The days on market for the 20 homes that closed in August 2021 in Windsor is 39 days.  The median price ($733,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in April is 4% below the median price a year ago ($760,000).

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of August is 51 homes.  This is 44% below the number of mobile homes available in August 2021 (91) and it is equal to the number of available mobile homes last month (51).  There were 29 new mobile home sales in August.  This is 19% below the pace of sales in August 2021 (36) and it is 12% below the pace of sales last month (33).  There is a 1.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 35 mobile homes closed in August is 37 days and the median price was $209,000.  This median price is 23% ahead of the median price of $170,000 in August 2021.

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of August is 288 properties. The current inventory is 24% below the number of lots in August 2021 (381) and it is 4% below the number of available lots last month (299). There were 33 new lot sales in August.  This is 3% below the pace of sales in August 2021 (34) and it is 120% above the pace of lot sales last month (15).  There is a 7.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 21 lots closed in August is 125 days and the median price is $348,000.   

Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of August (281) is 27% below the inventory in August 2021 (387) and it is 7% below the inventory last month (301).  Sixty-five percent of the inventory in Napa County (184 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above.   New sales (106) are 21% below the pace of last year (131) and are 14% ahead of the 93 sales last month.  There is a 2.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the homes closing in Napa County is currently 52 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 102 homes closed in August in Napa County ($1,013,000) is 19% above the median price of a year ago ($850,000).  Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 93% of original list price.  In August, 34% of the homes in Napa County sold at a price in excess of the original list price and 34% of the homes had a reduction in price before they sold.  This latter percentage, homes with a price reduction, increased from 15% last month.  As is true across the country, more homes are seeing price reductions before selling.

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $4,000,000 in Napa County at this time.  There has been a decrease of 27% for the number of closings (47) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $4,000,000) in Napa County for the period 9/1/21 to 8/31/22 compared to 64 closings in the period 9/1/20 to 8/31/21.  This continues last month’s trend where we see a decrease in this number.  There are 69 luxury homes in inventory at the end of August 2022 compared to 79 homes in inventory at the end of August 2021 and 66 last month. There were 3 new Luxury Home sales in August compared to 8 last year and 2 last month.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 86% of original list price.

American Canyon:  There are 17 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of August in American Canyon. Last year at this time there were 29 homes in inventory and there were 25 homes in inventory last month.  There were 9 new sales in the month.  This compares to 13 new homes sales last August and 5 new sales last month.  There is a 1.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for 5 homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 38 days. The median price of the homes that closed in American Canyon in August ($725,000) is equal to the median price of a year ago ($725,000).  The average price per square foot of the homes sold in American Canyon was at $362 last month.  This is consistent with the $300 to $400 per square foot range where the sales have been over the past several years.

Napa:  Fifty percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 141 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of August in the City of Napa. This is 34% below the supply at the end of August 2021 (212) and it is 10% below the inventory at the end of last month (157).  New sales (72) were 20% below the pace of August 2021 (90) and they were 13% ahead of the pace of last month (64). There is a 2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 73 closings last month is 42 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in August was $940,000. This is 15% above the median price of the homes closed in August 2021 ($820,000).

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of August (104) is 15% below the level of 122 in August 2021 and it is slightly above the inventory last month (102).  There were 23 new sales this month compared to 28 a year ago and 23 last month.  There is now a 4.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 23 closings last month is 65 days.  Fifty-nine percent of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $4,000,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (41 homes). There were two luxury home (price in excess of $4,000,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month and there were two new luxury home sales.

Angwin:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Angwin at the end of August (12) is 29% below the level of 17 in August 2021 and it is 14% below the inventory last month (14).  There were 2 new sales this month compared to 3 a year ago and 3 last month.  There is now a 6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median asking price for the 12 homes on the market in Angwin is $1,300,000.

Mobile Homes in Napa County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of August is 21 homes.  This is 38% below the number of mobile homes available in August 2021 (34) and it is 13% below the 24 available homes last month.  There were 13 new mobile home sales in August.  This compares to 15 home sales last August and 8 sales last month.  There is a 1.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 5 mobile homes closed in August is 64 days and the median price was $180,000.  This compares to a median price of $257,000 in August 2021 and $187,000 last month.  The median price of sold mobile homes in Napa varies quite a bit from month to month.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of August stands at 303.  This is 46% above the inventory in August 2021 (208) and it is 11% below the inventory last month (340).  New sales (72) in Mendocino County in August were 9% above the pace of August 2021 (66) and they were 57% above the pace last month (46).  There now is a 4.2 months supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace down from 6.5 months last month.  The average Days on Market for the 53 homes sold in Mendocino County in August is 86 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the homes closed in August in Mendocino County was $505,000. This is essentially equal to the median price in August 2021 ($503,000).  Over the past four months, Mendocino County homes are selling at roughly 91% of original list price.  In August, 5% of the homes in Mendocino County sold at a price in excess of the original list price and 49% of the homes had a reduction in price before they sold.

Ukiah:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of August in Ukiah is 64 homes.  This is 36% above the level of August 2021 (47) and it is 19% below the inventory last month (79).  There were 26 new sales for the month of August.  This is 30% ahead of the number of sales in August 2021 (20) and it is 100% ahead of the sales last month (13).  There is 2.5 months of inventory based on the current sales pace (down from 5 months last month). The Days on Market for the 15 closings last month is 58 days.  The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from $370,000 to $625,000. The median price was $485,000 for the homes that closed in August.  

Redwood Valley and Calpella:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of August in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 34 homes.  This compares to 20 homes in August 2021 and 38 homes last month.  There were 9 new sales for the month of August.  This compares to 5 sales in August 2021 and 6 new sales last month.  There is a 3.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $725,000.  There were 3 closings in Redwood Valley/Calpella in August at a median price of $535,000 and the homes sold in 80 days. 

Hopland and Talmage:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of August in Hopland and Talmage is 12 homes.  This compares to 7 homes in inventory at the end of August 2021 and 14 homes in inventory last month.  There was one new sale for the month of August.  This compares to no sales in August 2021 and no new sales last month.  There was one closing of  in this area last month.

Lake County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Lake County at the end of August stands at 525.  Approximately 28% of the inventory (148 homes) is in the communities of Clearlake.  The countywide inventory is 27% above the inventory in August 2021 (413) and it is 5% above the inventory last month (499). Closed sales (81) in Lake County in August were 30% below the pace of August 2021 (116) and they were 20% below the pace last month (101).  There now is a 5.8 months supply of inventory in Lake County based on the existing sales pace.  The median Days on Market for the homes sold in Lake County in August is 36 days.  Usually “Days on Market” are traced from listing date to pending date, so the closing date would be somewhat longer.  The median price of the homes closed in August in Lake County was $304,000. This is 6% below the median price in August 2021 ($323,000) and slightly above the median price last month ($300,000).  The homes sold in Lake County last month sold at 94% of original list price compared to 100% a year ago.

Marin County:  Marin County is often considered a “feeder” county to our North Bay Wine Country markets.  Marin County’s inventory (346 homes) is 36% below the 538 homes in August 2021 and it is 22% below the 444 homes in inventory last month.  New sales (219) were 17% below the number last August (263) and were very close to the pace of last month (215).  This creates a 1.6 months supply.  The median price of the 216 homes sold in Marin County in August is $1,355,000.  This is 3% below the median price a year ago ($1,403,000).