Wine Country and Northbay Real Estate Trends 

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for July 2022

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group and Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Ming Tree enjoyed 60 closings in July 2022 compared to 68 last July and 71 last month.  In July, we closed homes with a total value of $28 million compared to $49 million last year and $35 million last month.  The average selling price of the properties sold by BHGRE|WCG in July was $467,000. 

BHGRE|WCG currently has 107 pending sales with a value of $61 million dollars.  We are 70% ahead of our pending unit volume last year.  We have 195 active listings with a value of $110 million dollars.  We are 400% ahead of last year in our listing unit volume.  Our average listing price is $564,000.

Congratulations to the following BHGRE|Wine Country Group agents who had one or more closings in the month of July.  Jesicca Spencer led all agents with 4 closings.

Jessica Spencer, Sarah Duschka, Maria Flores, Jessica Hooten, Robert Davis, Summer Dahlquist, Cheryl Marinaro, Denise Ridley, Dave Hughes, Carina De Herrera, Paige Hotchkiss, Ray Hellgren, Parmeeta Ghoman, Jana Adams, Mari Giblin, Melinda Scalese, Pam Atchison, Julie Etchell, Heather Thurber, Rob Ross, Ann Conger, Martha Saly, Randy Coffman, Laurie Parris, Herb Heil, Pippa Whelan, Tish Thames, Sheila Deignan, Kendra Martin, Rianne Pasquariello, Linda Alioto, Liz Manfree.

North Bay Real Estate Trends for July 2022

For all of the areas covered by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, there is an inventory of 2,697 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of July.  Inventory is 34% above that of a year ago (2,007) and it is 11% above the inventory last month (2,429).  This continues the trend over the past three months where inventory in a current month has exceeded inventory one year prior.  It is also consistent with national data where listings are 32% ahead of a year ago.  Both nationally and locally, the rate of increase in inventory is declining in what we describe as a typical seasonal trend. Despite the pick-up in July, inventory remains low on a historical basis.  At times, the inventory has exceeded 10,000 homes in the BAREIS region.  There were 1,169 sales for the month of July.  This number is 32% below a year ago (1,715) and 7% below the pace of last month (1,258). 

Nationally, Interest rates for 30 year fixed rate mortgages have retreated to near 5% or just below from a high of 6.5%, or so, a month ago.  This is not far off from the average of 4% over the past 13 years.  Inflation also seems to, perhaps, reached its peak and is retreating at present.

I have been following a data point I call the “Price Reduction Ratio” (PRR) for the past year, or so.  Across the country, on average, one might expect that 30 to 35% of the homes put into the MLS will have a price reduction before they eventually sell.  Currently, for the entire country, the ratio is currently 38% and heading up.  It is expected to reach 40% before cresting in the lead up to the winter market.  In much of our region, the ratios are lower.  For July 2022, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, the ratio range from 15% for Napa County, 22% for Sonoma County and 45% for Mendocino County.  Conversely, the ratio of homes selling in excess of Original List Price are 48% in Sonoma County, 33% in Napa County and 25% in Mendocino County, and.  Though our ratios are lower, the trend is consistent as we are seeing an increase in homes selling with price reductions.

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of July stands at 692 homes.  This is 9% below the inventory in July 2021 (761) and it is 6% above the inventory last month (653).  New sales (379) in Sonoma County in July were 42% below the pace of July 2021 (651) and they were 14% below the pace last month (442).  There is a 1.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 28 (Coastal Sonoma) to 54 (Healdsburg) days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 39 days.  The median price of the 395 homes closed in July in Sonoma County was $780,000. This is 5% above the median price in July 2021 ($740,000).  Nearly 50% of the available homes for sale in Sonoma County at this time are priced at $1,000,000 or more.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 103% of their original list price.  In July, 48% of the homes in Sonoma County sold at a price in excess of the original list price and 22% of the homes had a reduction in price before they sold.

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1.800,000).  There has been a 6% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (429) from 8/1/21 to 7/31/22 compared to 403 closings in the period 8/1/20 to 7/31/21.  The inventory of luxury homes (173) is 9% below the inventory in July 2021 (189 homes) and it is 6% below the inventory last month (184).  The pace of new sales (33) in July this year is 27% below the pace of a year ago (45) and it is 6% below the pace last month (35).  There seems to be a slowing of activity in this high quartile sector.  The Days on Market for 25 Luxury Home closings was 37 days this July compared to 44 days a year ago. and 42 Days on market for all closed properties in the County in June.  There is a 5.2 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 1.8 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 101% of original list price.

Cloverdale:  There are 26 homes and condominiums available in Cloverdale.  This compares to 39 homes in inventory in July 2021 and 29 homes last month.  There were 9 new sales in July compared to 16 a year ago and 9 last month.  There is now a 2.9 months supply of inventory in Cloverdale based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 8 homes that closed in July is 44 days. 

Coastal Sonoma:  There are 9 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This compares to 10 homes in inventory in July 2021 and 6 homes last month.  There were 2 new sales in July compared to 3 a year ago and 5 last month.  There is now a 4.5 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the one home that closed in July is 28 days. 

Healdsburg Trends:  There are 62 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month.  This is 33% below the inventory in July 2021 (92) and it is 8% below the inventory last month (67).  New sales in July (17) were 32% below the pace of sales in July 2021 (25) and they were 26% below the sales pace last month (23).  The months of available inventory is 3.6 months at the end of July based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 17 homes that closed in July is 54 days.  

Oakmont:  There are 24 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of July.  This is 56% below the inventory in July 2021 (55) and it is 20% above the inventory of last month (20).  New sales (10) were 67% below the sales pace of a year ago (30) and 44% below the pace of last month (18).  There is a 2.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high $500,000’s up to $810,000.  The median price was $849,000 for the 15 homes that closed in July and is a new high median closing price for any month in Oakmont.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in July is 31 days.  

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of July (75) is 47% above the inventory in July 2021 (51) and it is 15% above the inventory last month (65).  There were 44 new sales for the month.  This is 38% below the sales in July 2021 (71) and it is 29% below the sales pace last month (62).  The Petaluma market currently has 1.7 months supply of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 55 homes that closed in July was $940,000.  This is 18% above the median price last July ($800,000) but it is less than it was in the past four months. The Days on Market for the homes that closed in July is 33 days.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of July (27) is 23% below the inventory in July 2021 (35) and it is slightly ahead of the inventory last month (26).  There were 34 new sales in Rohnert Park in July.  This sales pace is 50% below the 68 sales in July 2021 and it is slightly below the sales last month (35).  This is the twenty-sixth month in a row where sales were in excess of the inventory at the beginning of the month in Rohnert Park.  In July, the month started with 26 available properties and there were 34 sales in the month.  There is a 0.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  This remains a very tight market.  The median price ($725,000) of the 28 homes and condominiums that closed in July is 12% above the median price in July a year ago ($645,000).  Days on Market for the homes that closed in July is 33 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of July in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (48) is 13% below the level of July 2021 (55) and it is 9% above the inventory last month (44).  There were 19 new sales for the month of July.  This is 49% below the pace in July 2021 (37) and it is 32% below the pace last month (28).  There is a 2.5 months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace.  The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $400,000 to $783,000 over the past year.  The median was $645,000 for the 21 homes that closed in July.  The homes that closed in the Russian River in April went from listing to pending in 44 days.

Santa Rosa:  Thirty-three percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of July (226) is 19% below the inventory of a year ago (278) and it is 4% above the inventory last month (218).  New sales in July (156) are 42% below the pace of last July (271) and they are 11% below the pace last month (175).  There is a 1.2 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 172 homes closed in July in Santa Rosa was $736,000 compared to $695,000 a year ago.  This is a 6% increase.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in July is 38 days.  

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of July in Sebastopol is 47 homes.  This is 7% above the inventory last July (44) and 12% above the inventory last month (42).  There were 24 new sales for the month of July.  This is 11% below the pace in July 2021 (27) and it is 17% below the pace last month (29).  There is a 2 months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace.  The 30 homes that closed in Sebastopol in July went from listing to pending in 45 days.

Sonoma Valley:  The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (103) at the end of July in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 4% below the inventory last July (107) and it is 13% above the inventory of last month (91).  Sixty-seven percent of the available properties in the Sonoma Valley (69) are priced at $1,000,000, or more. There were 40 new sales for the month. This is 41% below the 68 sales in July 2021 and it is 5% below the 42 sales last month.  There is a 2.6 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  The average Days on Market for the 37 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in July is 42 days.  The closings in the month had a selling price equal to 96% of the original listing price.  In July, 35% of the homes in the Sonoma Valley sold at a price in excess of the original list price and 38% of the homes had a reduction in price before they sold.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of July starts at $4,000,000 (down from $4,750,000 last month).  Twenty-two homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 29 in the twelve months prior to that.  In July, there was one new sale in this quartile.  There are 24 homes available in this quartile in July 2022 compared to 21 a year ago and 26 last month. Based on the current sales pace, the months of inventory is 24 months.  The one home that closed in excess of $4,000,000 in the month had a selling price equal to 92% of the original listing price.  

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of July is 37 properties.  This is 61% above the inventory in July 2021 (23) and it is 18% below the 45 homes in inventory last month.  There were 18 sales in the month.  This is 54% below the pace of sales in July 2021 (39) and it is 33% below the pace of last month (27).  There is a 2.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The days on market for the 20 homes that closed in July 2021 in Windsor is 40 days.  The median price ($785,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in April is 5% above the median price a year ago ($745,000).

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of July is 42 homes.  This is 28% below the number of mobile homes available in July 2021 (58) and it is 8% above the number of available mobile homes last month (39).  There were 34 new mobile home sales in July.  This is 8% below the pace of sales in July 2021 (37) and it is 6% above the pace of sales last month (32).  There is a 1.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 28 mobile homes closed in July is 49 days and the median price was $211,000.  This median price is 16% ahead of the median price of $182,000 in July 2021.

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of July is 288 properties. The current inventory is 11% below the number of lots in July 2021 (322) and it is essentially equal to the number of available lots last month (289). There were 21 new lot sales in July.  This is 48% below the pace of sales in July 2021 (40) and it is 9% below the pace of lot sales last month (23).  There is a 13.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 18 lots closed in July is 127 days and the median price is $330,000.   

Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of July (248) is 7% below the inventory in July 2021 (267) and it is 7% above the inventory last month (232).  Sixty-seven percent of the inventory in Napa County (166 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above.   New sales (98) are 32% below the pace of last year (144) and are slightly below the 100 sales last month.  There is a 2.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the homes closing in Napa County is currently 48 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 83 homes closed in July in Napa County ($975,000) is 10% above the median price of a year ago ($890,000).  Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 96% of original list price.  In July, 33% of the homes in Napa County sold at a price in excess of the original list price and 15% of the homes had a reduction in price before they sold.

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $3,750,000 in Napa County at this time.  This is down from $4,750,000 in May.  There has been a decrease of 18% for the number of closings (56) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $3,750,000) in Napa County for the period 8/1/21 to 7/31/22 compared to 69 closings in the period 8/1/20 to 7/31/21.  This continues last month’s trend where we see a decrease in this number.  There are 63 luxury homes in inventory at the end of July 2022 compared to 68 homes in inventory at the end of July 2021 and 63 last month. There were 3 new Luxury Home sales in July compared to 6 last year and 9 last month.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 90% of original list price.

American Canyon:  There are 18 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of July in American Canyon. Last year at this time there were 12 homes in inventory and there were 15 homes in inventory last month.  There were 6 new sales in the month.  This compares to 16 new homes sales last July and 9 new sales last month.  There is a 3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for 7 homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 45 days. The median price of the homes that closed in American Canyon in July ($777,000) is 10% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($704,000).  The average price per square foot of the homes sold in American Canyon was at $444 last month.  This is above the $300 to $400 per square foot range where the sales have been over the past several years.

Napa:  Fifty-one percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 126 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of July in the City of Napa. This is slightly below the supply at the end of July 2021 (128) and it is 8% above the inventory at the end of last month (117).  New sales (66) were 30% below the pace of July 2021 (94) and they were slightly below the pace of last month (67). There is a 1.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 54 closings last month is 39 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in July was $968,000. This is 11% above the median price of the homes closed in July 2021 ($875,000).

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of July (90) is 17% below the level of 109 in July 2021 and it is slightly above the inventory last month (87).  There were 23 new sales this month compared to 28 a year ago and 21 last month.  There is now a 3.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 17 closings last month is 50 days.  Fifty-seven percent of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $3,750,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (36 homes). There were no luxury home (price in excess of $3,750,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month and there were np new luxury home sales.

Angwin:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Angwin at the end of July (12) is 40% below the level of 20 in July 2021 and it is 20% above the inventory last month (10).  There were 3 new sales this month compared to 4 a year ago and 1 last month.  There is now a 4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median asking price for the 12 homes on the market in Angwin is $2,762,000.

Mobile Homes in Napa County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of July is 19 homes.  This is 27% below the number of mobile homes available in July 2021 (26) and it is 73% above the 11 available homes last month.  There were 8 new mobile home sales in July.  This compares to 18 home sales last July and 8 sales last month.  There is a 2.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 7 mobile homes closed in July is 88 days and the median price was $180,000.  This compares to a median price of $216,000 in July 2021 and $265,000 last month.  The median price of sold mobile homes in Napa varies quite a bit from month to month.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of July continued its seven month climb and stands at 326.  This is 109% above the inventory in July 2021 (156) and it is 13% above the inventory last month (288).  New sales (50) in Mendocino County in July were 9% below the pace of July 2021 (55) and they were slightly above the pace last month (48).  There now is a 6.5 months supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 40 homes sold in Mendocino County in July is 74 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the homes closed in July in Mendocino County was $607,000. This is 7% below the median price in July 2021 ($650,000).  Over the past four months, Mendocino County homes are selling at roughly 93% of original list price.  In July, 25% of the homes in Mendocino County sold at a price in excess of the original list price and 45% of the homes had a reduction in price before they sold.

Ukiah:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of July in Ukiah is 70 homes.  This is 133% above the level of July 2021 (30) and it is 8% above the inventory last month (65).  There were 14 new sales for the month of July.  This is 22% below the number of sales in July 2021 (18) and it is equal to the sales last month (14).  There is 5 months of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 16 closings last month is 72 days.  The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from $370,000 to $625,000. The median price was $585,000 for the homes that closed in July. 

Hopland and Talmage:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of July in Hopland and Talmage is 13 homes.  This compares to 5 homes in inventory at the end of July 2021 and 13 homes in inventory last month.  There was one new sale for the month of July.  This compares to 2 sales in July 2021 and 1 new sale last month.  There were no closings of homes in this sub-area last month.

Redwood Valley and Calpella:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of July in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 38 homes.  This is the highest that we’ve ever seen in this area and compares to 12 homes in July 2021 and 33 homes last month. There were 7 new sales for the month of July.  This compares to 3 sales in July 2021 and 5 new sales last month.  There is a 5.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $725,000.  There were 5 closings in Redwood Valley/Calpella in July at a median price of $639,000 and the homes sold in 81 days. 

Lake County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Lake County at the end of July stands at 520.  Approximately 26% of the inventory (134 homes) is in the communities of Clearlake.  The countywide inventory is 38% above the inventory in July 2021 (378) and it is 7% above the inventory last month (484). Closed sales (101) in Lake County in July were 14% below the pace of July 2021 (117) and they were essentially equal to the pace last month (102).  There now is a 5.7 months supply of inventory in Lake County based on the existing sales pace.  The median Days on Market for the homes sold in Lake County in July is 21 days.  Usually “Days on Market” are traced from listing date to pending date, so the closing date would be somewhat longer.  The median price of the homes closed in July in Lake County was $300,000. This is 12% below the median price in July 2021 ($341,000) and 14% below the median price last month ($347,000).  The homes sold in Lake County last month sold at 98% of original list price.

Marin County:  Marin County is often considered a “feeder” county to our North Bay Wine Country markets.  Marin County’s inventory (355 homes) is 18% above the 300 homes in July 2021 and it is essentially equal to the 352 homes in inventory last month.  New sales (213) were 25% below the number last July (283) and were 15% below the pace of last month (249).  This creates a 1.7 months supply.  The median price of the 208 homes sold in Marin County in July is $1,515,000.  This is slightly above the median price a year ago ($1,500,000).