Wine Country and Northbay Real Estate Trends 

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for April 2022

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group and Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Ming Tree enjoyed 81 closings in April 2022 compared to 69 last April and 90 last month.  In April, we closed homes with a total value of $38 million compared to $41 million last year and $44 million last month.  The average selling price of the properties sold by BHGRE|WCG in April was $469,000. 

BHGRE|WCG currently has 123 pending sales with a value of $50 million dollars.  We are 78% ahead of our pending unit volume last year.  We have 151 active listings with a value of $90 million dollars.  We are 202% ahead of last year in our listing unit volume.  Our average listing price is $596,000.

Congratulations to the following BHGRE|Wine Country Group agents who had closings in the month of April:

Paige Hotchkiss (6); Jessica Spencer (5); David Hughes (5); Sheila Deignan (4); Rianne Pasquariello (4); Team Ramos (3); Carina De Herrera (3); Robert Davis (3); Ryan Gourd (3); Mari Giblin (2); Elizabeth Uribe (2); David Lucido (2); Mara Kahn (2); Marsha Wedan (2); Martha Saly (2); Michele Baker (2); Parmeeta Gohman (2); Sylvia Schagerer (2); Sarah Duschka (2); Jana Adams; Laurie Parris; Isaac Raboy; Michael Crain; Linda Alioto; Maria Flores; Jessica Hooten; Jill Rake; Julie Etchell; Mari Johnson; Misty Platt; Pam Atchison; Ray Hellgren; Summer Dahlquist; Mireya Nelson and Zebi Bojarsky. 

North Bay Real Estate Trends for April 2022

For all of the areas covered by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, there is an inventory of 1,686 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of April.  Inventory is slightly above that of a year ago (1,635) and it is 19% above the inventory last month (1,423).  This is the first time in two and a half years where inventory in a current month has exceeded income one year prior.  This indicates a shift in the market.  At times, the inventory has exceeded 10,000 homes in the BAREIS region.  Despite the pick-up in April, inventory remains very low on a historical basis.  There were 1,557 sales for the month of April.  This number is 9% below a year ago (1,705) and 5% above the pace of last month (1,487).  Sales gains are a little flatter than they are in a typical spring market.

It’s said that “high inflation often translates to high anxiety.”  People see an erosion of their buying power and higher costs of basic goods.  The ownership of real property is historically known to be a hedge against inflation.  Higher interest rates are the hot topic in the real estate world today.  According to the Chief Economist for Fannie Mae – the US Government sponsored secondary mortgage banker:  “We are experiencing the “lock-in effect”.  Households with a 3 percent 30 year fixed rate mortgage are unlikely to give that up in favor of a mortgage of 5% or higher.  Accordingly, Fannie Mae adjusted it’s forecast of home sales for next year to decline by 9.7%.  Price growth will most likely slow now that interest rates are rapidly rising, but economists generally don’t expect prices to fall.  There’s just too much demand for too little housing in America today.  There are economists, however, predicting a decline in real estate values in selected markets across the country. Real estate remains a very local business.

I have been following a data point I call the “Price Reduction Ratio” (PRR) for the past year, or so.  Across the country, on average, one might expect that 30 to 35% of the homes put into the MLS will have a price reduction before they eventually sell.  Currently, for the entire country, the ratio is a very low 19%.  In our region, the ratio is even lower.  For April 2022, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, the range was from 7% (Sonoma County) to 28% (Mendocino County).  Conversely, the ratio of homes selling in excess of Original List Price (OLP) ranged from 28% (Mendocino County) to 80% (Sonoma County).  The ratios were 9% and 63% respectively in Napa County.

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of April stands at 470 homes.  This is 28% below the inventory in April 2021 (653) and it is 20% above the inventory last month (391).  New sales (491) in Sonoma County in April were 21% below the pace of April 2021 (618) and they were 5% below the pace last month (519).  There is a 1.0 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 20 (Petaluma) to 92 (Coastal Sonoma) days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 29 days.  The median price of the 472 homes closed in April in Sonoma County was $825,000. This is 13% above the median price in April 2021 ($733,000).  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 102% of their original list price.  Homes sold for 105% of original list price in Sonoma County last month.

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $2,200,000).  There has been a 35% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (290) from 5/1/21 to 4/30/22 compared to 215 closings in the period 5/1/20 to 4/30/21.  The inventory of luxury homes (120) is 16% below the inventory in April 2021 (142 homes) and it is slightly above the inventory last month (118).  The pace of new sales (35) in April this year is 9% above the pace of a year ago (32) and it is 6% above the pace last month (33).  The Days on Market for 24 Luxury Home closings was just 45 days this April compared to 73 days a year ago. This compares to 29 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in April.  There is a 3.4 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 1.0 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 99% of original list price.

Cloverdale:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (17) in Cloverdale at the end of April is 41% below the inventory in April 2021 (29) and it is 21% above the inventory of last month (14).  There were 21 new sales in Cloverdale in April.  This compares to 20 sales in April 2021 and 18 new sales last month.  There is a 0.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 17 homes that closed in April is 36 days.

Coastal Sonoma:  There are 10 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This compares to 4 homes in inventory in April 2021 and 6 homes last month.  There was 1 new sale in April compared to 4 a year ago and 4 last month.  There is now a 10 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 2 homes that closed in April is 92 days.  Perhaps the hot market on the Sonoma Coast is cooling off.

Healdsburg Trends:  There are 59 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month.  This is 30% below the inventory in April 2021 (84) and it is 41% above the inventory last month (42).  New sales in April (22) were 21% below the pace of sales in April 2021 (28) and they were 6% below the sales pace last month (24).  The months of available inventory is 2.7 months at the end of April based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 16 homes that closed in April is 55 days.  

Oakmont:  There are 10 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of April.  This is 80% below the inventory in April 2021 (50) and it is 150% above the inventory of last month (4).  New sales (20) were 50% below the sales pace of a year ago (40) and 9% below the pace of last month (22).  Despite starting the month with four homes in inventory, 20 homes sold in April.  There is a 0.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace making Oakmont the tightest market in Wine Country.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high $500,000’s up to $810,000.  The median price was $785,000 for the 23 homes that closed in April.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in April is 29 days. 

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of April (42) is 19% below the inventory in April 2021 (52) and it is 31% above the inventory last month (32).  There were 62 new sales for the month.  This is 10% below the sales in April 2021 (69) and it is also 10% below the sales pace last month (69).  The Petaluma market currently has 0.7 months supply of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 67 homes that closed in April was $1,000,000.  This is 23% above the median price last April ($810,000) and the highest median price ever recorded for any month in Petaluma.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in April is 20 days.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of April (18) is 125% above the inventory in April 2021 (8) and it is 39% ahead of the inventory last month (13).  There were 43 new sales in Rohnert Park in April.  This sales pace is 14% below the 54 sales in April 2021 and it is 16% above the sales last month (37). This is the twenty-third month in a row where sales were in excess of the inventory at the beginning of the month in Rohnert Park.  In April, the month started with 13 available properties and there were 43 sales in the month.  There is a 0.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  This remains a very tight market.  The median price ($548,000) of the 32 homes and condominiums that closed in April is 15% below the median price in April a year ago ($648,000) and was the lowest median price in the past year.  Days on Market for the homes that closed in April is 23 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of April in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (38) is 23% above the level of April 2021 (31) and it is 7% below the inventory last month (41).  There were 49 new sales for the month of April.  This is 14% above the pace in April 2021 (43) and it is 89% ahead of the pace last month (26).  There is a 0.8 months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace.  The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $400,000 to $783,000 over the past year.  The median was $661,000 for the 22 homes that closed in April.  The homes that closed in the Russian River in April went from listing to pending in 24 days.

Santa Rosa:  Thirty percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of April (142) is 46% below the inventory of a year ago (265) and it is 6% above the inventory last month (134).  New sales in April (192) are 24% below the pace of last April (252) and they are 12% below the pace last month (217).  There is a 0.7 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 202 homes closed in April in Santa Rosa was $750,000 compared to $660,000 a year ago.  This is a 14% increase and sets a record high median price for sold homes in Santa Rosa.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in April is 32 days.  

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of April in Sebastopol (35) is 10% below the level of April 2021 (39) and it is 46% above the inventory last month (24).  There were 23 new sales for the month of April.  This is 34% below the pace in April 2021 (35) and it is 23% below the pace last month (30).  There is a 1.5 months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace.  The 25 homes that closed in Sebastopol in April went from listing to pending in 27 days.

Sonoma Valley:  The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (79) at the end of April in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 23% below the inventory last April (101) and it is 30% above the inventory of last month (61).  Seventy-two percent of the available properties in the Sonoma Valley (57) are priced at $1,000,000, or more. There were 44 new sales for the month. This is 29% below the 62 sales in April 2021 and it is slightly below the 45 sales last month.  There is a 1.8 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  The average Days on Market for the 42 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in April is 22 days.  The closings in the month had a selling price equal to 105% of the original listing price.  In April, 64% of the homes in the Sonoma Valley sold at a price in excess of the original list price and just 5% of the homes had a reduction in price before they sold.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of April starts at $3,750,000.  Thirty-two homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 26 in the twelve months prior to that.  In April, there were four new sales in this quartile.  There are 19 homes available in this quartile in April 2022 compared to 21 a year ago and 17 last month. Based on the current sales pace, the months of inventory is 4.8 months.  The days on market for the two homes that closed in April in this quartile is just 8 days.

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of April is 17 properties.  This is 47% below the inventory in April 2021 (32) and it is one unit below the 18 homes in inventory last month.  There were 19 sales in the month.  This is 42% below the pace of sales in April 2021 (32) and it is 44% below the pace of last month (34).  There is a 0.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The days on market for the 32 homes that closed in April 2021 in Windsor is 24 days.  The median price ($826,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in April is 13% above the median price a year ago ($730,000) and sets a new high median price for sales for any month in Windsor.

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of April is 23 homes.  This is 52% below the number of mobile homes available in April 2021 (48) and it is 15% above the number of available mobile homes last month (20).  There were 25 new mobile home sales in April.  This is 32% below the pace of sales in April 2021 (37) and it is 17% below the pace of sales last month (30).  There is a 0.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 24 mobile homes closed in April is 53 days and the median price was $184,000.  This median price is 12% ahead of the median price of $164,000 in April 2021.  

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of April is 256 properties. The current inventory is 9% below the number of lots in April 2021 (280) and it is 6% above the number of available lots last month (242). There were 36 new lot sales in April.  This is 33% below the pace of sales in April 2021 (54) and it is 22% below the pace of lot sales last month (46).  There is a 7.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 28 lots closed in April is 117 days and the median price is $412,000.   

Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of April (211) is 8% below the inventory in April 2021 (228) and it is 16% above the inventory last month (182).  Seventy-two percent of the inventory in Napa County (151 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above.   New sales (127) are 16% below the pace of last year (152) and are slightly below the 129 sales last month.  There is a 1.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 57 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the126 homes closed in April in Napa County ($983,000) is 6% above the median price of a year ago ($900,000) and is a record new median sold price for any month in Napa County.  Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 98.5% of original list price.

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $5,000,000 in Napa County at this time.  There has been an decrease of 14% for the number of closings (31) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $5,000,000) in Napa County for the period 5/1/21 to 4/30/22 compared to 36 closings in the period 5/1/20 to 4/30/21.  This is the first time that we’ve seen a decrease in this number for over two years.  There are 44 luxury homes in inventory at the end of April 2022 compared to 46 homes in inventory at the end of April 2021 and 41 last month. There were 8 new Luxury Home sales in April compared to 9 last year and 4 last month.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 94% of original list price.

American Canyon:  There are 12 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of April in American Canyon. Last year at this time there were 7 homes in inventory and there were 8 homes in inventory last month.  There were 9 new sales in the month.  This compares to 8 new homes sales last April and 11 new sales last month.  There is a 1.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for 10 homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 23 days. The median price of the homes that closed in American Canyon in April ($729,000) is 10% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($665,000).  The average price per square foot of the homes sold in American Canyon was at $423 last month.  This is a bit over the $300 to $400 per square foot range where the sales have been over the past several years.

Napa:  Forty-four percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 91 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of April in the City of Napa. This is 23% below the supply at the end of April 2021 (121) and it is 11% above the inventory at the end of last month (84).  New sales (99) were equal to the pace of April 2021 and they were 15% above the pace of last month (86). There is a 0.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 89 closings last month is just 29 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in April was $1,050,000. This is 19% above the median price of the homes closed in April 2021 ($886,000) and is the highest median price for any month ever recorded in the City of Napa.

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of April (85) is 3% below the level of 88 in April 2021 and it is 18% above the inventory last month (72).  There were 16 new sales this month compared to 33 a year ago and 18 last month.  There is now a 5.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 18 closings last month is 58 days.  Fifty-nine percent of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $5,000,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (26 homes). There was one luxury home (price in excess of $5,000,000) closing in the Up Valley Market last month and there were two new luxury home sales.  

In Angwin in April, inventory was 10 homes compared to 15 a year ago and 7 last month.  There were 2 new sales in Angwin for the month compared to 8 a year ago and 3 last month.  The average price of the active listings in Angwin as of April 2022 is $2,233,000.

Mobile Homes in Napa County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of April is 12 homes.  This is 37% below the number of mobile homes available in April 2021 (19) and it is 50% above the 8 available homes last month.  There were 14 new mobile home sales in April.  This compares to 10 home sales last April and 17 sales last month.  There is a 0.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The average days on market of the 11 mobile homes closed in April is 62 days and the median price was $215,000.  This compares to a median price of $168,000 in April 2021 and $234,000 last month.  The median price of sold mobile homes in Napa seems to vary quite a bit from month to month.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of April stands at 246.  This is 92% above the inventory in April 2021 (128) and it is 15% above the inventory last month (214).  New sales (75) in Mendocino County in April were 10% above the pace of April 2021 (68) and they were 6% below the pace last month (80).  There now is a 3.3 months supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 52 homes sold in Mendocino County in April is 69 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the homes closed in April in Mendocino County was $537,000. This is 8% above the median price in April 2021 ($498,000).  

Ukiah:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of April in Ukiah is 46 homes.  This is 48% above the level of April 2021 (31) and it is 44% above the inventory last month (32).  There were 22 new sales for the month of April.  This is 19% below the number of sales in April 2021 (27) and it is 29% below the sales last month (31).  There is 2.1 months of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 22 closings last month is 44 days.  The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from $370,000 to $528,000. The median price was $543,000 for the homes that closed in April.

Hopland and Talmage:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of April in Hopland and Talmage is 7 homes.  This compares to 11 homes in inventory at the end of April 2021 and 7 homes in inventory last month.  There were 3 new sales for the month of April.  This compares to 5 sales in April 2021 and 4 new sales last month.  There was one closing in the Talmage-Hopland market last month with an average Days on Market of 41 days.

Redwood Valley and Calpella:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of April in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 29 homes.  This is the highest that we’ve ever seen in this area and compares to 13 homes in April 2021 and 16 homes last month. There were 9 new sales for the month of April.  This compares to 4 sales in April 2021 and 8 new sales last month.  There is a 3.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $725,000.  There were 6 closings in Redwood Valley/Calpella in April at a median price of $659,000 and the homes sold in 91 days. 

Lake County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Lake County at the end of April stands at 440.  Approximately 30% of the inventory (114 homes) is in the communities of Clearlake.  The countywide inventory is 75% above the inventory in April 2021 (251) and it is 29% above the inventory last month (341). Closed sales (114) in Lake County in April were 3% below the pace of April 2021 (118) and they were 5% below the pace last month (120).  There now is a 4.7 months supply of inventory in Lake County based on the existing sales pace.  The median Days on Market for the homes sold in Lake County in April is 23 days.  Usually “Days on Market” are traced from listing date to pending date, so the closing date would be somewhat longer.  The median price of the homes closed in April in Lake County was $309,000. This is slightly below the median price in April 2021 ($310,000).  The homes sold in Lake County last month sold at 97.6% of original list price.

Marin County:  Marin County is often considered a “feeder” county to our North Bay Wine Country markets.  Marin County’s inventory (213 homes) is 14% below the 247 homes in April 2021 and it is 15% above the 185 homes in inventory last month.  New sales (293) were 11% below the number last April (329) and were 17% above the pace of last month (250).  This creates a 0.7 months supply.  The median price of the 245 homes sold in Marin County in April is $1,755,000.  This is 17% above the median price a year ago ($1,500,000).