Wine Country Real Estate Trends in September 2021

Year Over Year Comparisons

In mid-March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic was declared and all parties were told to “Shelter in Place”.  This basically shut down the residential real estate industry through the month of April 2020.  The market then accelerated rapidly in May through October.  Year over year statistical comparisons are therefore going to be skewed by these market aberrations created last year.  The closings of this year are more “normalized” than the closings of September 2020 so it may look like a “slow down” in an otherwise healthy market.

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for September 2021 

We are proud that our brokerage was nominated as one of three finalists in the 2021 Rotary Ethics in Business Awards for large businesses in Northern California.  We were the only real estate company among the nine finalists.  Our emphasis on PAIGE (Passion, Authenticity, Inclusion, Growth and Excellence) values contributes to our recognition as an ethical company and we thank our staff and agents for believing in doing the right thing. 

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group enjoyed 66 closings in September 2021 compared to 85 last September (remember the COVID effect last year) and 61 last month.  In September, we closed homes with a total value of $32 million compared to $56 million last year and $44 million last month.  The average selling price of the properties sold by BHGRE|WCG in September was $489,208.   

BHGRE|WCG currently has 109 pending sales with a value of $67 million dollars.  We are 45% ahead of the volume last year.  We have 64 active listings with a value of $61 million dollars.  Our average listing price is $953,000.  This is 6% below last year’s average. 

Congratulations to the following agents who had closings in the month of September:

Pam Atchison (3); David Hughes (3); Mari Giblin (2); Laurie Parris (2); Rianne Pasquariello (2); Parmeeta Ghoman (2); Jessica Spencer (2); Maria Flores (2); Jose Escalante (2); Gayle Peters (2); Carina De Herrera (2); Mary Janson (2); Kendra Martin (2); Liz Uribe (2); Sheila Deignan (2); Monica Kangas (2); Heather Thurber (2); Mara Kahn; Zebi Borjarsky; Chelsie Runnings; David Lucido; Dan Gallagher; Patty Marken; Rob Ross; Erick Rothfeld; Daniel Galvin; Jill Rake; Jessica Hooten; Patricia Paulsen; Marsha Holder; Herb Heil; Robert Davis; Denise Ridley; Team Ramos; Deborah Melancon; Ray Hellgren; Silvia Schagerer; Paige Hotchkiss; Amy Wray and Nicole Moktan.

Our Top Producers for the 2^nd Quarter of 2021 were:

Petaluma:  Parmeeta Ghoman – Units, Dollar Volume and Listings

Santa Rosa:  Mari Giblin – Units and Listings; Heather Thurber – Dollar Volume

Sebastopol:  Laurie Parris – Units and Listings; Deborah Melancon (Bodega) – Dollar Volume

Sonoma:  Sheila Deignan – Units and Dollar Volume; Erick Rothfeld and Freddie Diaz – Listings

St. Helena:  Rianne Pasquariello – Units and Listings; Linda Alioto – Dollar Volume; Liz Manfree – Listings

Ukiah:  Amy Wray – Units and Dollar Volume; Team Ramos – Listings

North Bay Real Estate Trends for September 2021

For all of the areas covered by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, there is an inventory of 2,074 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of September.  Inventory is 11% below that of a year ago (2,336) and it is slightly ahead of the inventory last month (2,064).  At times, the inventory has exceeded 10,000 homes in the BAREIS region.  There were 1,691 sales for the month of September.  This number is 3% below a year ago (1.737) and slightly ahead of the pace of last month (1,680).

Prices normally peak in September and stay level through January.  National forecasts predict increasing inventory and a slowing of price appreciation in the coming months and into 2022. This seems to be happening across Wine Country and we’ll see if this is a seasonal trend (the end of summer market) or a longer term direction. 

I have been following a data point I call the “Price Reduction Ratio” (PRR) for the past six months, or so.  Across the country, one might expect that 30 to 35% of the homes put into the MLS will have a price reduction before they eventually sell.  Currently, for the entire country, the ratio is 27% up from a low of 15% in April of this year.  For September 2021, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, the range was from 15% (Napa County) to 18% (Mendocino and Sonoma Counties).  Conversely, the ratio of homes selling in excess of Original List Price (OLP) ranged from 53% (Sonoma County) to 33% (Mendocino County).  It was 44% in Napa County.  The average Price Reduction Ratio for all areas has gone from 29% in September 2020 to 17% in September of 2021 while the sales of homes in excess of Original List Price went from 33% to 43% over the same period.  In our Wine Country market, the low PRR was 14% in May and the high OLP ratio was 55% in May.

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of September stands at 696.  This is 3% below the inventory in September 2020 (718) and it is 10% below the inventory last month (775).  New sales (626) in Sonoma County in September were 16% ahead of the pace of September 2020 (542) and they were essentially equal to the pace last month (628).  There is a 1.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 31 (Petaluma) to 74 (Cloverdale) days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 45 days.  The median price of the 576 homes closed in September in Sonoma County was $714,000. This is 2% above the median price in September 2020 ($699,000).  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 101% of their original list price.  

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,900,000).  There has been a 86% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (359) from 10/1/20 to 9/30/21 compared to 193 closings in the period 10/1/19 to 9/30/20.  The inventory of luxury homes (172) is 28% ahead of the inventory in September 2020 (134 homes).  The pace of new sales (37) in September this year is 42% above the pace of a year ago (26) and it is 9% above the pace last month (34).  The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 56 days this September compared to 94 days a year ago. This compares to 45 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in September.  There is a 4.6 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 1.1 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 99.5% of original list price.

Cloverdale:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (34) in Cloverdale at the end of September is equal to the inventory in September 2020 (34) and it is 11% below the inventory of last month (38).  There were 13 new sales in Cloverdale in September.  This compares to 12 sales in September 2020 and 20 new sales last month.  There is a 2.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 18 homes that closed in September was 74 days.

Coastal Sonoma:  There are 5 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This compares to 4 homes in inventory in September 2020 and 9 homes last month.  There were 7 new sales in September compared to 7 a year ago and 12 last month.  There is now a 0.7 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 10 homes that closed in September was 36 days.  The coastal area market remains a very tight market.

Healdsburg Trends:  There are 92 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month.  This is 23% above the inventory in September 2020 (75) and it is 11% below the inventory last month (103).  New sales in September (33) were 22% above the pace of sales in September 2020 (27) and they were 14% above the sales pace last month (29).  The months of available inventory was 2.8 months at the end of September based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 21 homes that closed in September was 38 days.  

Oakmont:  There are 39 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of September.  This is slightly below the inventory in September 2020 (40) and it is 22% below the inventory of last month (50).  New sales (34) were 62% above the sales pace of a year ago (21) and 10% above the pace of last month (31).  There is a 1.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high $500,000’s up to $800,000.  The median price was $630,000 for the 34 homes that closed in September.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in September was 63 days.  

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of September (48) is 9% below the inventory in September 2020 (53) and it is 6% below the inventory last month (51).  There were 73 new sales for the month.  This is 14% above the sales in September 2020 (64) and it is 4% above the sales pace last month (70).  This is the eleventh month in a row where new sales have been higher than the existing inventory going into the month.  The Petaluma market currently has 0.7 months supply of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 66 homes that closed in September was $864,000.  This is 8% ahead of the median price last September ($800,000).  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in September was 31 days.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of September (21) is 5% above the inventory in September 2020 (20) and it is 32% below the inventory last month (31).  There were 40 new sales in Rohnert Park in September.  This sales pace is slightly above the 39 sales in September 2020 and it is 22% below the sales last month (51).  This is the sixteenth month in a row where sales were in excess of the inventory at the beginning of the month.  In September, the month started with 31 available properties and there were 40 sales in the month.  There is a 0.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  This is the tightest market in Wine Country.  The median price ($635,000) of the 42 homes and condominiums that closed in September is equal to the median price in September a year ago ($635,000).  Days on Market for the homes that closed in September is 37 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of September in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (42) is 11% below the level of September 2020 (47) and it is 19% below the inventory last month (52).  There were 41 new sales for the month of September.  This is 95% ahead of the pace in September 2020 (21) and it is 24% above the pace last month (33).  There is a one months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace.  The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $400,000 to $670,000 over the past year.  The median was $627,000 for the 29 homes that closed in September.  The homes that closed in the Russian River in September went from listing to pending in 52 days.

Santa Rosa:  Thirty-eight percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of September (265) is 7% below the inventory of a year ago (285) and it is 5% below the inventory last month (280).  New sales in September (263) are 12% above the pace of last September (235) and they are 4% below the pace last month (274).  There is a 1.0 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 256 homes closed in September in Santa Rosa was $661,000 compared to $650,000 a year ago.  This is a 2% increase.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in September was 49 days.  

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of September in Sebastopol (37) is slightly below the level of September 2020 (38) and it is 18% below the inventory last month (45).  There were 38 new sales for the month of September.  This is 41% above the pace in September 2020 (27) and it is 15% ahead of the pace last month (33).  There is a one months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace.  The 34 homes that closed in Sebastopol in September went from listing to pending in 42 days.

Sonoma Valley:  The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (104) at the end of September in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 4% below the inventory last September (108) and it is 5% below the inventory of last month (109).   Seventy-two percent of the available properties in the Sonoma Valley (72) are priced at $1,000,000, or more. There were 60 new sales for the month. This is 20% above the 50 sales in September 2020 and it is 11% above the 54 sales last month.  There is a 1.7 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  The average Days on Market for the 50 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in September is 50 days.  The closings in the month had a selling price equal to 99% of the original listing price.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of September starts at $3,750,000.  Twenty-eight homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 15 in the twelve months prior to that.  In September, there was one new sale in this quartile.  There are 26 homes available in this quartile in September 2021 compared to 19 a year ago and 23 last month. Based on the current sales pace, the months of inventory is 26 months.  The average days on market for the one home that closed in September in this quartile was 200 days.

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of September is 31 properties.  This is 24% above the inventory in September 2020 (25) and it is 28% below the 43 homes last month.  There were 45 new sales for the month.  This is 80% above the pace of sales in September 2020 (25) and it is 73% above the pace of last month (26).  There is a 0.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The days on market for the 28 homes that closed in September 2020 in Windsor was 32 days.  The median price ($777,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in September is 11% above the median price a year ago ($700,000).

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of September was 65 homes.  This is 29% below the number of mobile homes available in September 2020 (91) and it is 8% above the number of available mobile homes last month (62).  There were 41 new mobile home sales in September.  This is 11% above the pace of sales in September 2020 (37) and it is 8% above the pace of sales last month (38).  There is a 1.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 32 mobile homes closed in September was 59 days and the median price was $203,000.  This median price is 57% above the median price of $129,000 in September 2020.  

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of September is 337 properties. The current inventory is 7% below the number of lots in September 2020 (62) and it is 2% above the number of available lots last month (331). There were 38 new lot sales in September.  This is 7% below the pace of sales in September 2020 (41) and it is 23% above the pace of lot sales last month (31).  There is a 9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The average days on market of the 23 lots closed in September was 84 days and the median price was $320,000.   

Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of September (269) is 13% below the inventory in September 2020 (309) and it is 5% ahead of the inventory last month (257).  Sixty-seven percent of the inventory in Napa County (179 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above.   New sales (123) are 16% below the pace of last year (146) and are 7% below the 132 sales last month.  There is a 2.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 53 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 119 homes closed in September in Napa County ($850,000) is 5% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($810,000).  Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 96% of original list price.

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $4,000,000 in Napa County at this time.  There has been an increase of 48% for the number of closings (59) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $4,000,000) in Napa County for the period 10/1/20 to 9/30/21 compared to 40 closings in the period 10/1/19 to 9/30/20.  There are 65 luxury homes in inventory at the end of September 2021 compared to 63 homes in inventory at the end of September 2020 and 64 last month. There were 2 new Luxury Home sales in September compared to 9 last year and 8 last month.  This results in a 33 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to a 2.2 months supply for the County as a whole.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 86% of original list price.

American Canyon:  There are 14 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of September in American Canyon. This is 17% above the inventory a year ago (12) and it is slightly below the supply last month (15).  There were 13 new sales in the month.  This is 24% below the pace of last year (17) and it is equal to the 13 sales last month.  There is a 1.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for 14 homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 44 days. The median price of the homes that closed in American Canyon in September ($775,000) was 30% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($595,000).  This is the highest median price for homes sold in American Canyon in any month on record.  The average price per square foot of the homes sold in American Canyon was at $354 last month, This is above the $275 to $300 range where the sales have been over the past several years.

Napa:  Forty-nine percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 132 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of September in the City of Napa. This is 19% below the supply at the end of September 2020 (163) and it is 11% above the inventory at the end of last month (119).  New sales (82) were 12% below the pace of September 2020 (91) and they were 6% below the pace of last month (87). There is a 1.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 82 closings last month was 47 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in September was $813,000. This is essentially equal to the median price of the homes closed in September 2020 ($815,000).

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of September (106) is 12% below the level of 121 in September 2020 and it is equal to the inventory last month (105).  There were 24 new sales this month compared to 34 a year ago and 29 last month.  There is now a 4.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 19 closings last month was 67 days.  Approximately 68% of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $4,000,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (44 homes). There were two luxury home (price in excess of $4,000,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month and there was one new luxury home sale.  This makes for a 44 month supply of inventory based upon the current sales pace.

In Angwin in September, inventory was 12 homes compared to 8 a year ago and 15 last month.  There were 6 new sales in Angwin for the month compared to 2 a year ago and 4 last month.  The median price of the active listings in Angwin as of September 2021 is $1,740,000.

Mobile Homes in Napa County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of September is 29 homes.  This is 17% below the number of mobile homes available in September 2020 (35) and it is 26% above the 23 available homes last month.  There were 12 new mobile home sales in September.  This is equal to the pace of sales in September 2020 (12) and it is 20% below the pace of sales last month (15).  There is a 2.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The average days on market of the 12 mobile homes closed in September was 51 days and the median price was $205,000.  This compares to a median price of $219,000 in September 2020 and $175,000 last month.  The median price of sold mobile homes in Napa seems to vary quite a bit from month to month.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of September stands at 182.  This is 16% above the inventory in September 2020 (157) and it is 7% above the inventory last month (170).  New sales (66) in Mendocino County in September were 18% below the pace of September 2020 (80) and they were 4% below the pace last month (69).  There now is a 2.8 months supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 55 homes sold in Mendocino County in September is 66 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the homes closed in September in Mendocino County was $500,000. This is 2% ahead of the median price in September 2020 ($489,000).  

Ukiah:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of September in Ukiah is 40 homes.  This is 29% ahead of the level of September 2020 (31) and it is 14% above the inventory last month (35).  It is the highest level of inventory in Ukiah since May of 2020.  There were 20 new sales for the month of September.  This is 17% below the number of sales in September 2020 (24) and it is equal to the sales last month (20).  There is now a 2 months of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 15 closings last month is 65 days.  The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from $370,000 to $519,000. The median price was $488,000 for the homes that closed in September.

Hopland and Talmage:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of September in Hopland and Talmage is 5 homes.  This compares to 8 homes in inventory at the end of September 2020 and 4 homes in inventory last month.  There was one new sale for the month of September.  This compares to one sale in September 2020 and no new sales last month.  There were no closings in the Talmage-Hopland market last month.

Redwood Valley and Calpella:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of September in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 20 homes.  This is 100% above the level of September 2020 (10) and it is 11% above the inventory last month (18).  It is the highest inventory here since April of 2019.  There were 5 new sales for the month of September.  This compares to 8 sales in September 2020 and 5 new sales last month.  There is a 4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $725,000.  There were 3 closings in Redwood Valley/Calpella in September at a median price of $500,000 and the homes sold in 38 days. 

Lake County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Lake County at the end of September stands at 463.  This is 49% above the inventory in September 2020 (310) and it is 19% above the inventory last month (393). Closed sales (93) in Lake County in September were 35% below the pace of September 2020 (144) and they were 21% below the pace last month (118).  There now is a 4.7 months supply of inventory in Lake County based on the existing sales pace.  The median Days on Market for the homes sold in Lake County in September is 24 days.  Usually “Days on Market” are traced from listing date to pending date, so the closing date would be somewhat longer.  The median price of the homes closed in September in Lake County was $339,000. This is 15% ahead of the median price in September 2020 ($294,000).  The homes sold in Lake County last month sold at 97.4% of original list price.

Marin County:  Marin is often considered a “feeder” county to Wine Country.  Marin County’s inventory (302 homes) is 32% below the 446 homes in September 2020 and it is 3% above the 294 homes in inventory last month.  New sales (307) were 7% above the number last September (286) and were 20% above the pace of last month (257).  This creates a one months supply.  The median price of the 246 homes sold in Marin County in September was $1,436,000.  This is 2.6% ahead of the median price a year ago ($1,400,000).