Wine Country Real Estate Trends in May 2021

Year Over Year Comparisons

In mid-March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic was declared and all parties were told to “Shelter in Place”.  This basically shut down the residential real estate industry through the month of May 2020.  The market then accelerated rapidly in May through October.  Year over year statistical comparisons are therefore going to be skewed by these market aberrations.  

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for May 2021 

We are very proud that our Brokerage was selected as the “Best Real Estate Company” in the recent Santa Rosa Press Democrats’ reader’s poll.  Thank you to our clients and friends for supporting us and we will work to earn the award again next year!

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group enjoyed 51 closings in May 2021 compared to 20 last May and 69 last month.  In May, we closed homes with a total value of $38 million compared to $9 million last year and $41 million last month.  The average selling price of the properties sold by BHGRE|WCG in May was $738,607.   

BHGRE|WCG currently has 86 pending sales with a value of $66 million dollars.  We are 69% ahead of our volume last year (remember that Covid-19 was affecting our markets last year at this time).  We have 50 active listings with a value of $46 million dollars.  Our average listing price is $920,000.  This is 17% above last year’s average. 

Congratulations to the following agents who had closings in the month of May:

Leo Merle (3); Sheila Deignan (3); Mari Giblin (3); Heather Thurber (3); Parmeeta Ghoman (2); Laurie Parris (2); Team Ramos (2); The Oscar-Kopelman Team (2); David Barker (2); Liz Uribe (2); Rianne Pasquariello; Mari Johnson; Martha Saly; Kendra Martin; Jennifer Carollo; Ryan Gourd; Mary Jansen; Zebi Borjarski; Amanda Rivano; Pam Atchison; Patty Marken; Michael Crain; Sylvia Schagerer; Del Nordby; Deborah Melancon; Daniel Galvin; Linda Alioto; Liz Manfree; Dan Gallagher; Myriah Bivin; Norbert Tenenbaum; Maureen Linde and Mara Kahn.

North Bay Real Estate Trends for May 2021

For all of the areas covered by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Lake, Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, there is an inventory of 1,804 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of May.  Inventory is 43% below that of a year ago (3,151) and it is 10% ahead of the inventory last month (1,635).  At times, the inventory has exceeded 10,000 homes in the BAREIS region.  There were 1,924 sales for the month of May.  This number is 17% above a year ago (1,640) and 6% ahead of the pace of last month (1,819).  

I have been following a data point I call the “Price Reduction Ratio” for the past six months, or so.  Across the country, one might expect that 20 to 25% of the homes put into the MLS will have a price reduction before they eventually sell.  For May 2021, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, the range was from 13% (Mendocino and Napa Counties) to 15% (Sonoma County).  Conversely, the ratio of homes selling in excess of Original List Price ranged from 49% (Mendocino) to 61% (Sonoma County).  It was 56% in Napa County.  The average Price Reduction Ratio for all areas has gone from 29% in September 2020 to 14% in May of 2021 while the sales of homes in excess of Original List Price went from 33% to 55% over the same period.

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of May stands at 740.  This is 29% below the inventory in May 2020 (1042) and it is 13% above the inventory last month (653).  Forty-five percent of the inventory in Sonoma County (330 homes) is priced in excess of $1,000,000 at the end of May 2021.  New sales (723) in Sonoma County in May were 44% ahead of the pace of May 2020 (502) and they were 9% higher than the pace last month (653).  There is a one months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 23 (Petaluma to 63 (Oakmont) days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 40 days.  The median price of the 638 homes closed in May in Sonoma County was $746,000. This is 16% above the median price in May 2020 ($645,000).  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 101% of their original list price. 

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,900,000).  There has been a 213% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (376) from 6/1/20 to 5/31/21 compared to 120 closings in the period 6/1/19 to 5/31/20.  The inventory of luxury homes (181) is 39% ahead of the inventory in May 2020 (130 homes).  The pace of new sales (45) in May this year is 36% ahead of the pace of a year ago (33) and it is 5% above the pace last month (43).  The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 52 days this May compared to 62 days a year ago. This compares to 40 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in May.  There is a 4 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a one months supply in the overall Sonoma County market.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 98% of original list price.

Cloverdale:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (29) in Cloverdale at the end of May is 34% below the inventory in May 2020 (44) and it is equal to the inventory of last month (29).  There were 31 new sales in Cloverdale in May.  This compares to 15 sales in May 2020 and 21 new sales last month.  There is a 1.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 27 homes that closed in May was 36 days.

Coastal Sonoma:  There are 6 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This compares to 26 homes in inventory in May 2020 and 4 homes last month.  There were 5 new sales in May compared to 10 a year ago and 5 last month.  There is now a 1.2 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 3 homes that closed in May was 24 days.  The coastal area continues to be a favored destination with a very tight real estate market.

Healdsburg Trends:  There are 78 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month.  This is 12% below the inventory in May 2020 (89) and it is 7% below the inventory last month (84).  New sales in May (43) were 96% ahead of the pace of sales in May 2020 (22) and they were 48% ahead of the sales pace last month (29).  The months of available inventory was 1.8 months at the end of May based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 33 homes that closed in May was 60 days.  

Oakmont:  There are 58 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of May.  This is 7% below the inventory in May 2020 (62) and it is 16% ahead of the inventory of last month (50).  New sales (44) were 144% above the sales pace of a year ago (18) and 10% above the pace of last month (40).  There is a 1.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high $500,000’s up to $800,000.  The median price was $595,000 for the 44 homes that closed in May.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in May was 62 days.  

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of May (49) is 31% below the inventory in May 2020 (71) and it is 6% below the inventory last month (52).  There were 87 new sales for the month.  This is 55% ahead of the sales in May 2020 (56) and it is 13% above the sales pace last month (77).  This is the seventh month in a row where new sales have been higher than the existing inventory going into the month.  The Petaluma market currently has 0.6 months supply of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 83 homes that closed in May was $852,000.  This is 23% ahead of the median price last May ($695,000).  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in May was 23 days compared to 71 days a year ago.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of May (17) is 61% below the inventory in May 2020 (43) and it is 113% above the inventory last month (8).  There were 39 new sales in Rohnert Park in May.  This sales pace is 15% ahead of the 34 sales in May 2020 and it is 28% below the sales last month (54).  This is the twelfth month in a row where sales were in excess of the inventory at the beginning of the month.  In May, the month started with 8 available properties and there were 39 sales in the month.  There is a 0.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  This is the tightest market in Wine Country.  The median price ($645,000) of the 50 homes and condominiums that closed in May is 11% ahead of the median price in May a year ago ($580,000).  Days on Market for the homes that closed in May is 27 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of May in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (54) is 14% below the level of May 2020 (63) and it is 74% above the inventory last month (31).  There were 36 new sales for the month of May.  This is 13% ahead of the pace in May 2020 (32) and it is 18% below the pace last month (44).  There is a 1.5 months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace.  The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $400,000 to the high $500,000s over the past year.  The median was $600,000 for the 35 homes that closed in May.  The homes that closed in the Russian River in May went from listing to pending in 31 days.

Santa Rosa:  Forty-one percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of May (304) is 26% below the inventory of a year ago (416) and it is 15% above the inventory last month (265).  New sales in May (292) are 53% above the pace of last May (191) and they are 7% above the pace last month (265).  There is a one months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 251 homes closed in May in Santa Rosa was $675,000 compared to $613,000 a year ago.  This is a 10% increase.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in May was 46 days.  

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of May in Sebastopol (37) is 33% below the level of May 2020 (55) and it is 5% below the inventory last month (39).  There were 45 new sales for the month of May.  This is the highest number of new sales in any month for which we have records. It is 73% ahead of the pace in May 2020 (26) and it is 15% ahead of the pace last month (39).  There is a one months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace.  The 31 homes that closed in Sebastopol in May went from listing to pending in 59 days.

Sonoma Valley:  The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (115) at the end of May in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 5% below the inventory last May (121) and it is 12% ahead of the inventory of last month (101).   Sixty-nine percent of the available properties in the Sonoma Valley (79) are priced at $1,000,000, or more. There were 76 new sales for the month. This is 43% ahead of the 53 sales in May 2020 and it is 17% above the 65 sales last month.  There is a 1.5 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  The average Days on Market for the 56 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in May is 38 days.  The closings in the month had a selling price equal to 102% of the original listing price.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of May starts at $3,500,000.  Forty-four homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 8 in the twelve months prior to that.  In May, there were 4 new sales in this quartile.  There are 28 homes available in this quartile in May 2021 compared to 11 a year ago and 25 last month. Based on the current sales pace, the months of inventory is 7 months.  The average days on market for the 6 homes that closed in May in this quartile was 31 days.

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of May equals 38 properties.  This is 41% below the inventory in May 2020 (64) and it is 19% ahead of the 32 homes last month.  There were 51 new sales for the month.  This is 42% ahead of the pace of sales in May 2020 (36) and it is 55% ahead of the pace of last month (33).  There is a 0.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The days on market for the 35 homes that closed in May 2020 in Windsor was 28 days.  The median price ($740,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in May is 17% above the median price a year ago ($631,000).

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of May (50) reversing a steady decline in that started in July of last year.  In June of last year, the inventory crested at 109 homes.  The current inventory is 50% below the number of mobile homes available in May 2020 (100) and it is 4% above the number of available mobile homes last month (48).  There were 38 new mobile home sales in May.  This is 12% above the pace of sales in May 2020 (34) and it is equal to the pace of sales last month (38).  There is a 1.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 26 mobile homes closed in May was 63 days and the median price was $170,000.  This median price is 11% above the median price of $153,000 in May 2020.  

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of May is 299 properties. The current inventory is 18% below the number of lots in May 2020 (366) and it is 7% ahead of the number of available lots last month (280). There were 48 new lot sales in May.  This is 92% above the pace of sales in May 2020 (25) and it is 24% below the pace of lot sales last month (63).  There is a 6.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace compared to a 15 months supply a year ago.  The average days on market of the 54 lots closed in May was 94 days and the median price was $370,000.  This is a high water mark for the median price of sold lots in Sonoma County.

Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of May (262) is 34% below the inventory in May 2020 (398) and it is 15% above the inventory last month (228).  Sixty-seven percent of the inventory in Napa County (175 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above.   New sales (168) are 41% ahead of the pace of last year (119) and are 4% above the 161 sales last month.  There is a 1.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 46 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 141 homes closed in May in Napa County ($800,000) is 28% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($625,000).  Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 96% of original list price.

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $3.500,000 in Napa County at this time.  There has been an increase of 134% for the number of closings (78) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $3,500,000) in Napa County for the period 6/1/20 to 5/31/21 compared to 31 closings in the period 6/1/19 to 5/31/20.  There are 67 luxury homes in inventory at the end of May 2021 which is the same as the inventory at the end of May 2020. There were 8 new Luxury Home sales in May compared to 8 last year and 12 last month.  This results in a 7.5 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to a 1.6 months supply for the County as a whole.  Days on market for the 5 luxury homes closings in May was 98 days.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 90% of original list price.

American Canyon:  There are only 5 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of May in American Canyon. This is 78% below the inventory a year ago (23) and it is slightly below the supply last month (7).  There were 10 new sales in the month.  This is 17% below the pace of last year (12) and 11% above the 9 sales last month.  There is a 0.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. American Canyon remains the tightest market in Wine Country.  The Days on Market for 7 homes that closed in American Canyon last month was just 36 days. The median price of the homes that closed in American Canyon in May ($745,000) was 35% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($553,000).  The average price per square foot of the homes sold in American Canyon was at $339 last month, This is above the $275 to $300 range where the sales have been over the past several years.

Napa:  Fifty-four percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 141 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of May in the City of Napa. This is 34% below the supply at the end of May 2020 (213) and it is 17% above the inventory at the end of last month (121).  New sales (125) were 67% ahead of the pace of May 2020 (75) and they were 18% above the pace of last month (106). There is a 1.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 92 closings last month was 39 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in May was $815,000. This is 23% ahead of the median price of the homes closed in May 2020 ($665,000).

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of May (101) is 24% below the level of 132 in May 2020 and it is 15% ahead of the inventory last month (88).  There were 25 new sales this month compared to 21 a year ago and 34 last month.  There is now a 4.0 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 26 closings last month was 71 days.  Approximately 51% of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $3,500,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (34 homes). There were four luxury home (price in excess of $3,500,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month and there were five new luxury home sales.

In Angwin in May, inventory was 16 homes compared to 12 a year ago and 15 last month.  There were 4 new sales in Angwin for the month up from 2 a year ago and down from 8 last month.

Mobile Homes in Napa County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of May is 22 homes.  This is 44% below the number of mobile homes available in May 2020 (39) and it is 16% above the 19 available homes last month.  There were 19 new mobile home sales in May.  This is 90% ahead of the pace of sales in May 2020 (10) and it is 73% above the pace of sales last month (11).  There is a 1.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The average days on market of the 6 mobile homes closed in May was 72 days and the median price was $318,000.  This compares to a median price of $147,000 in May 2020 and is the highest median price for mobile homes in Napa County that we have seen.  That said, the median price of sold mobile homes in Napa seems to vary quite a bit from month to month.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of May stands at 141.  This is 40% below the inventory in May 2020 (236) and it is 10% above the inventory last month (128).  New sales (70) in Mendocino County in May were 32% above the pace of May 2020 (53) and they were 7% below the pace last month (75).  There now is a 2 months supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 64 homes sold in Mendocino County in May is 59 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the homes closed in May in Mendocino County was $579,000. This is 36% ahead of the median price in May 2020 ($426,000) and is the highest median price recorded for any month for which we have records.  Mendocino County homes are in high demand with prices rising quickly.

Ukiah:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of May in Ukiah is 30 homes.  This is 33% below the level of May 2020 (45) and it is slightly below the inventory last month (31).  There were 19 new sales for the month of May.  This is 6% above the number of sales in May 2020 (18) and it is 35% below the sales last month (29).  There is now 1.6 months of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 28 closings last month was 50 days.  The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from $370,000 to $505,000. The median price was $556,000 for the homes that closed in May.   This was a new high for median home prices in Ukiah. 

Hopland and Talmage:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of May in Hopland and Talmage is 9 homes.  This compares to 13 homes in inventory at the end of May 2020 and 11 homes in inventory last month.  There were five new sales for the month of May.  This compares to two sales in May 2020 and 5 new sales last month.  There were 4 closings in the Talmage-Hopland market last month with an average days on market of 94 days.

Redwood Valley and Calpella:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of May in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 18 homes.  This is 20% above the level of May 2020 (15) and it is 39% above the inventory last month (13).  There were 5 new sales for the month of May.  This compares to 5 sales in May 2020 and 6 new sales last month. There is a 3.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $655,000.  There were 6 closings in Redwood Valley/Calpella in May at a median price of $603,000 and the homes sold in 61 days. 

Marin County:  Marin is often considered a “feeder” county to Wine Country.  Marin County’s inventory (284 homes) is 38% below the 459 homes in May 2020 and it is 15% above the 247 homes in inventory last month.  New sales (362) were 28% ahead of the number last May (284) and were essentially equal to the pace of last month (363).  This creates a 0.8 months supply.  The median price of the 332 homes sold in Marin County in May was $1,433,000.  This is 10% ahead of the median price a year ago ($1,300,000).