Wine Country Real Estate Trends in February 2021

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for February 2021 

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group enjoyed 34 closings in February 2021 compared to 45 last February and 37 last month.  In February, we closed homes with a total value of $25.5 million compared to $29 million last year and $26.3 million last month.  The average selling price of the properties sold by BHGRE|WCG in February was $749,569.   

BHGRE|WCG currently has 69 pending sales with a value of $68 million dollars. We are 44% ahead of our volume last year.  We have 50 active listings with a value of $43 million dollars.  Our average listing price is $860,000.  This is 2% below last year’s average. 

Congratulations to the following agents who had closings in the month of February:

Team Ramos (5); Sheila Deignan (4); The Oscar-Kopelman Team (4); David Barker (2); Gina Fisicaro; Heather Thurber; Linda Alioto; Daniel Galvin; Laurie Parris; Juliet Casazza; Freddie Diaz; Catherine Carmody; Deborah Melancon; Liz Uribe; Greg Sparks; Terry Bell; Norm Brown; Norbert Tennenbaum; Martha Saly; Dan Gallagher; Maureen Linde; Kendra Martin; Bill McKinley; Rebecca Nicholls and Pam Atchison.      

North Bay Real Estate Trends in February 2021

For all of the areas covered by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Lake, Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, there is an inventory of 1,431 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of February.  This is the lowest inventory that we have had in any month in the reporting of MLS data going back to 2005.  Inventory is 43% below that of a year ago (2,511) and 2% below last month (1,454). At times, the inventory has exceeded 10,000 homes in the BAREIS region.  There were 1,401 sales for the month of February.  This number is 15% above a year ago (1,216) and 10% above last month (1,273).  The Wine Country real estate market often enjoys a spring increase in both listings and sales and we will look for improvements in both in the coming month.

I have been following a data point I call the “Price Reduction Ratio”.  Across the country, one might expect that 30 to 35% of the homes put into the MLS to sell will have a price reduction before they eventually sell.  For February 2021, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, the range was from 24% (Napa County) to 30% (Mendocino County). Conversely, the ratio of homes selling in excess of Original List Price ranged from 30% (Mendocino) to 45% (Sonoma County).  

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of February stands at 534.  This is 30% below the inventory in February 2020 (760) and it is 2% above the inventory last month (525). New sales (488) in Sonoma County in February were 38% ahead of the pace of February 2020 (355) and they were 8% above the pace last month (452).  There is a 1.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 39 (Coastal Sonoma) to 106 (Oakmont) days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 60 days.  The median price of the 369 homes closed in February in Sonoma County was $685,000. This is 10% above the median price in February 2020 ($621,000).  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 98.5% of their original list price.  In February, 2021, the closed homes sold at 100% of original list price.

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,600,000).  There has been an 86% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (418) from 3/1/20 to 2/28/21 compared to 225 closings in the period 3/1/19 to 2/28/20. The inventory of luxury homes (136) is essentially equal to the inventory in February 2020 (137 homes). The pace of new sales (35) in February this year is 192% ahead of the pace of a year ago (12) and it is 9% above the pace last month (32).  The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 59 days this February compared to 111 days a year ago. This compares to 60 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in February.  There is a 3.9 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 1.1 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market. Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 97% of original list price.

Cloverdale:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (19) in Cloverdale at the end of February is 27% below the inventory in February 2020 (26) and it is essentially equal to the inventory of last month (18).  There were 5 new sales in Cloverdale in February. This compares to 12 sales in February 2020 and 16 new sales last month.  There is a 3.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 17 homes that closed in February was 80 days.

Coastal Sonoma:  There are 5 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This compares to 16 homes in inventory in February 2020 and 2 homes last month.  There were 4 new sales in February compared to 3 a year ago and 5 last month.  There is now a 1.3 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 9 homes that closed in February was 39 days. The coastal area continues to be a favored destination with a very tight market.

Healdsburg Trends:  There are 56 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month.  This is 24% below the inventory in February 2020 (74) and it is 6% ahead of the inventory last month (53).  New sales in February (33) were 94% ahead of the pace of sales in February 2020 (17) and they were 50% ahead of the sales pace last month (22).  This is the highest level of sales in Healdsburg since last summer.  The months of available inventory went from 5.9 months last month to 1.7 months at the end of February based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 14 homes that closed in February was 79 days. 

Oakmont: There are 46 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of February.  This is 12% above the inventory in February 2020 (41) and it is slightly below the inventory of last month (47).  New sales (24) were 33% above the sales pace of a year ago (18) and 60% above the pace of last month (15).  There is a 1.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high $500,000’s up to $800,000.  The median price was $509,000 for the 14 homes that closed in February.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in February was 106 days.  

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of February (38) is 19% below the inventory in February 2020 (47) and it is 23% above the inventory last month (31).  There were 47 new sales for the month.  This is equal to the sales in February 2020 (47) and it is also equal to the sales pace last month (47).  This is the fourth month in a row where new sales have been higher than the existing inventory going into the month.  The Petaluma market currently has 0.8 months supply of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 35 homes that closed in February was $787,000. This is 10% ahead of the median price last February ($715,000).  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in February was 44 days.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of February (16) is 47% below the inventory in February 2020 (30) and it is equal to the inventory last month.  There were 40 new sales in Rohnert Park in February.  This sales pace is 8% ahead of the 37 sales in February 2020 and it is 15% below the sales last month (47).  This is the ninth month in a row where sales were in excess of the inventory at the beginning of the month.  In February, the month started with 16 available properties and there were 40 sales in the month.  There is a 0.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  This is the tightest market in Wine Country.  The median price ($606,000) of the 30 homes and condominiums that closed in February is 48% ahead of the median price in February a year ago ($410,000).  Days on Market for the homes that closed in February is 40 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of February in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (24) is 40% below the level of February 2020 (40) and it is 14% above the inventory last month (21).  There were 15 new sales for the month of February. This is 114% ahead of the pace in February 2020 (7) and it is 29% below the pace last month (21).  There is a 1.6 months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace. The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $400,000 to the high $500,000s over the past year. The median was $496,000 for the 20 homes that closed in February.  The homes that closed in the Russian River in February went from listing to pending in 61 days.

Santa Rosa:  Forty-five percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of February (238) is 19% below the inventory of a year ago (295) and it is 5% below the inventory last month (251). The inventory in Santa Rosa has fallen for the past three months.  New sales in February (223) are 60% above the pace of last February (139) and they are 11% above the pace last month (201).  There is a 1.1 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 158 homes closed in February in Santa Rosa was $625,000 compared to $581,000 a year ago.  This is an 8% increase.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in February was 68 days.  

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of February in Sebastopol (24) is 33% below the level of February 2020 (36) and it is 29% below the inventory last month (34).  There were 23 new sales for the month of February.  This is 35% ahead of the pace in February 2020 (17) and it is 21% below the pace last month (29).  There is a one months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace.  The 24 homes that closed in Sebastopol in February went from listing to pending in 45 days.

Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (76) at the end of February in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 30% below the inventory last February (109) and it is 38% ahead of the inventory of last month (55).  Almost 80% of the available properties in the Sonoma Valley are priced at $1,000,000, or more. There were 39 new sales for the month. This is 11% ahead of the 35 sales in February 2020 and it is also 11% ahead of the 35 sales last month.  There is a 1.9 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  The average Days on Market for the 29 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in February is 62 days. It is a pretty startling fact that for the 29 closings in the month the average selling price was 103% of the original listing price.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of February starts at $3,000,000.  Forty-three homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 16 in the twelve months prior to that.  Twenty-three of those 43 closings occurred in the three months of June, July and August.  In February, there were two new sales in this quartile.  There are 19 homes available in this quartile in February 2021 compared to 14 a year ago and 11 last month. Based on the current sales pace, the months of inventory is 9.5 months.  The average days on market for the 3 homes that closed in February in this quartile was 168 days.

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of February equals 24 properties.  This is 43% below the inventory in February 2020 (42) and it is 14% below the 28 homes last month.  There were 37 new sales for the month.  This is 48% ahead of the pace of sales in February 2020 (25) and it is 131% ahead of the pace of last month (16).  There is a 0.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The days on market for the 17 homes that closed in February 2020 in Windsor was 45 days.  The median price ($679,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in February is 6% above the median price a year ago ($640,000).  

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County: The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of February dropped to 63 homes. Just in June of last year, the inventory crested at 109 homes.  The current inventory is 30% below the number of mobile homes available in February 2020 (90) and it is 3% below the number of available mobile homes last month (65). There were 36 new mobile home sales in February.  This is 20% above the pace of sales in February 2020 (30) and it is 44% ahead of the pace of sales last month (25).  There is a 1.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The average days on market of the 20 mobile homes closed in February was 72 days and the median price was $151,000. This median price is 8% above the median price of $140,000 in February 2020.  

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County: The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of February is 282 properties.  This continues a decline in inventory that started in June of last year.  The current inventory is 22% below the number of lots in February 2020 (363) and it is 10% below the number of available lots last month (314). There were 61 new lot sales in February.  This is 46% above the pace of sales in February 2020 (42) and it is 42% ahead of the pace of lot sales last month (41).  There is a 4.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace compared to a 20 months supply a year ago.  The average days on market of the 34 lots closed in February was 178 days and the median price was $321,000, 61% above the median price a year ago ($200,000).

Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of February (223) is 32.4% below the inventory in February 2020 (330) and it is 2% ahead of the inventory last month (218).  Sixty-one percent of the inventory in Napa County (129 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above.   New sales (110) are 25% ahead of the pace of last year (88) and are 11% above the 99 sales last month.  There is a 2.0 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace compared to a 2.2 months supply last month.  The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 71 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 87 homes closed in February in Napa County ($850,000) is 31% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($649,000).  Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 94% of original list price.

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $3,250,000 in Napa County at this time, up from $2,900,000 last month.  There has been an increase of 94% for the number of closings (70) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $3,250,000) in Napa County for the period 3/1/20 to 2/28/21 compared to 36 closings in the period 3/1/19 to 2/28/20. There are 57 luxury homes in inventory at the end of February 2021 compared to 57 at the end of February 2020. There were 6 new Luxury Home sales in February compared to 3 last year and 3 last month.  This results in a 9.5 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to a 2.0 months supply for the County as a whole.  Days on market for the 2 luxury homes closings in February was just 13 days.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 87% of original list price.

American Canyon:  There are only 3 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of February in American Canyon. This is 80% below the inventory a year ago (11) and it is just below the supply last month (4).  There were 12 new sales in the month – so homes came on and sold right away.  This is 100% ahead of the pace of last year (6) and 140% ahead of the 5 sales last month. There is a 0.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. American Canyon remains the tightest market in Wine Country.  The Days on Market for 6 homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 65 days. The median price of the homes that closed in American Canyon in February ($588,000) was 30% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($453,000).  The average price per square foot of the homes sold in American Canyon remains in the $275 to $300 range. 

Napa:  Fifty-seven percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 127 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of February in the City of Napa. This is 28% below the supply at the end of February 2020 (176) and it is 3% above the inventory at the end of last month (123).  New sales (76) were 10% ahead of the pace of February 2020 (69) and they were 7% ahead of the pace of last month (71). There is a 1.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 66 closings last month was 53 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in February was $845,000. This is 26% ahead of the median price of the homes closed in February 2020 ($670,000).

Up Valley Napa County:  Up Valley Napa real estate ground to a halt beginning 9/27/20 with the outbreak of the “Glass Fire” in the area.  Inventory fell by 12% and new sales were off 56% from the prior month. The home sales market is upset by the loss of over 113 structures and the need for residents to occupy homes that were otherwise slated to be for sale in the near future.  We expect the market to be disrupted for months to come. As in the 2017 Wine Country wild fires, we will watch to see how many burned lots are brought on the market and how many owners decide to remain and rebuild – a multi-year process.

The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of February (77) is 18% below the level of 94 in February 2020 and it is equal to the inventory last month.  There were 18 new sales this month compared to 12 a year ago and 17 last month.  There is now a 4.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 12 closings last month was 156 days.  This indicates that some older inventory was closing in the month. Approximately 40% of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $3,250,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (23 homes).  This is down from 66% last September.  There were no luxury home (price in excess of $3,250,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month and there were two new luxury home sales.

In Angwin in February, inventory went up 67% to 15 homes compared to 9 a year ago and 10 last month.  There was one new sale for the month.

Mobile Homes in Napa County: The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of February is 24 homes.  This is 25% below the number of mobile homes available in February 2020 (32) and it is 8% below the available homes last month (26). There were 11 new mobile home sales in February.  This is 21% below the pace of sales in February 2020 (14) and it is 175% ahead of the pace of sales last month (4).  There is a 2.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The average days on market of the 3 mobile homes closed in February was 172 days and the median price was $122,000.  This compares to a median price of $229,000 in February 2020.  The median price of sold mobile homes in Napa seems to vary quite a bit from month to month.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of February stands at 106.  This is 52% below the inventory in February 2020 (221) and it is 6% above the inventory last month (100).  New sales (56) in Mendocino County in February were 7% below the pace of February 2020 (60) and they were 20% below the pace last month (70).  There now is a 1.9 months supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 57 homes sold in Mendocino County in February is 76 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the homes closed in February in Mendocino County was $515,000. This is 10% ahead of the median price in February 2020 ($467,000).  Mendocino County homes seem to be in high demand with prices rising quickly.

Ukiah: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of February in Ukiah is 26 homes.  This is 26% below the level of February 2020 (35) and it is 24% ahead of the inventory last month (21).  There were 16 new sales for the month of February.  This is 20% below the number of sales in February 2020 (20) and it is 27% below the sales last month (22).  There is now 1.6 months of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 17 closings last month was 68 days.  The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from $370,000 to $505,000. The median price was $410,000 for the homes that closed in February.  

Hopland and Talmage:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of February in Hopland and Talmage is 5 homes.  This compares to 6 homes in inventory at the end of February 2020 and 11 homes in inventory last month.  There were four new sales for the month of February.  This compares to 3 sales in February 2020 and two new sales last month.  There were no closings in the Talmage-Hopland market last month.

Redwood Valley and Calpella: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of February in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 7 homes. This is 46% below the level of February 2020 (13) and it is slightly above the inventory last month (6).  There were 5 new sales for the month of February. This compares to no sales in February 2020 and 4 new sales last month.  There is a 1.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $655,000. There were three closings in Redwood Valley/Calpella in February at a median price of $490,000 and the homes sold in 80 days. 

Marin County: Marin County’s inventory (221 homes) is 25% below the 296 homes in February 2020 and it is 3% above the 214 homes in inventory last month.  New sales (250) were 50% ahead of the number last February (167) and were 23% ahead of the pace of last month (204).  This creates a 0.9 months supply.  The median price of the 198 homes sold in Marin County in February was $1,350,000. This is 20% ahead of the median price a year ago ($1,125,000).