Wine Country Real Estate Trends in November 2020

Wine Country Real Estate Market Overview

We are seeing a return to a seasonal market in Wine Country with sales falling on a month over month basis.  They still remain relatively high compared to a year ago.  Inventory is starting to more closely mirror inventory from a year ago.  Two things jump out to me from last months’ data: 1.  Median Days on Market has dropped considerably – from 28% to 42% across our region.  2.  The Unsold Inventory Index ranges from 1.6 to 2.4 months across our region.  This is down from 45% to 77% on a year over year basis.  Prices continue the high levels achieved this summer and we will see 10% or more price appreciation in Wine Country for 2020.  With new “Shelter in Place Orders” real estate remains an “essential business” and we continue to help buyers and sellers.  We still have no Open Houses and showings are by appointment only with strict cleaning protocols between showings.

For the past few months I have been following a data point I call the “Price Reduction Ratio”.  Across the country, one might expect that 30 to 35% of the homes put into the MLS to sell will have a price reduction before they eventually sell. For November 2020, of all closed homes in Sonoma County, 20% had price reductions before selling.  In Napa, the ratio was 19% and in Mendocino County it was 22%.  Conversely, the ratio of homes selling in excess of Original List Price was 49% in Sonoma County, 46% in Napa County and 39% in Mendocino County.  In all markets, the Price Reduction Ratio is trending down and the Selling Price in Excess of Original List Price is trending up.

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for November 2020 

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group enjoyed 58 closings in November 2020 compared to 46 last November and 57 last month.  In November, we closed homes with a total value of $37.2 million compared to $24.6 million last year and $34.7 million last month.  The average selling price of the properties sold by BHGRE|WCG in November was $641,232.   

BHGRE|WCG currently has 61 pending sales with a value of $43 million dollars. We are 36% ahead of our volume last year.  We have 76 active listings with a value of $70 million dollars.  Our average listing price is $921,000.  This is 11% ahead of last year’s average. 

Congratulations to the following agents who had closings in the month of November:

The Oscar-Koppelman Team (4); Team Ramos (4); Parmeeta Ghoman (3); Catherine Carmody (2); Linda Alioto (3); Liz Uribe (2); Laurie Parris (2); Mary Jansen (2); Daniel Galvin (2); Sheila Deignan; Rianne Pasquariello; Terry Bell; Amy Wray; Mari Giblin; Monica Kangas; Pippa Whelan; Tish Thames; Patty Marken; Rebecca Nichols; David Barker and Gina Fisicaro.

Wine Country Real Estate Trends for November 2020

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of November stands at 779.  This is 21% below the inventory in November 2019 (985) and it is 6.5% below the inventory last month (833).  There is a 1.6 months supply of inventory.  New sales (492) in Sonoma County in November were 49% above the pace of November 2019 (330) and they were 7% below the pace last month (522).  The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 33 (Sebastopol) to 81 (Oakmont) days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 48 days.  The median price of the 478 homes closed in November in Sonoma County was $678,000.  This is 9.4% above the median price in November 2019 ($620,000).  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 98% of their original list price.

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,400,000).  Because of accelerated activity in the past five months, there has been an 50% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (474) from 12/1/19 to 11/30/20 compared to 316 closings in the period 12/1/18 to 11/30/19. The inventory of luxury homes (206) is 4.2% below the inventory in November 2019 (215 homes).  The pace of new sales (54) in November this year is 157% ahead of the pace of a year ago (21) and it is 10.2% ahead of the pace last month (49).  The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 59 days this November compared to 83 days a year ago. This compares to 48 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in November.  There is a 3.8 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 1.6 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 96% of original list price.

Coastal Sonoma:  There are only 5 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This compares to 24 homes in inventory in November 2019 and 5 homes last month.  There essentially are no homes to purchase in Coastal Sonoma.  There were 2 new sales in November compared to 5 a year ago and 8 last month.  There is now a 2.5 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 6 homes that closed in November was 34 days.  Between COVID-19, hot weather and fires – the Sonoma coast seems to be a popular place to be.

Oakmont: There are 48 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of November.  This is 4.3% above the inventory in November 2019 (46) and it is essentially equal to the inventory last month (49).  New sales (13) were 16% ahead of the sales pace of a year ago (11) and 13% below the pace of last month (15).  There is a 3.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high-$500,000’s up to $800,000.  The median price was $620,000 for the 14 homes that closed in November.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in November was 81 days.  

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of November (42) is 44% below the inventory in November 2019 (75) and it is 34% below the inventory last month (64).  There were 70 new sales for the month.  This is 56% ahead of the sales in November 2019 (45) and it is 35% above the new sales pace last month (52).  The Petaluma market currently has 0.6 months supply of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 47 homes that closed in November was $755,000. This is 9% ahead of the median price last November ($695,000).  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in November was 41 days.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of November (31) is 39% below the inventory in November 2019 (51) and it is 11% below the inventory last month (35).  There were 39 new sales in Rohnert Park in November.  This sales pace is 26% ahead of the 31 sales in November 2019 and it is 7% below the sales last month (42).  There is a 0.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  This is the lowest supply of inventory in any of our Wine Country markets.  The median price ($632,000) of the 37 homes and condominiums that closed in November is 21% ahead of the median price a year ago ($523,000).  Days on Market for the homes that closed in November was 38 days.

Santa Rosa:  Forty-four percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of November (340) is 2.3% below the inventory of a year ago (348) and it is 4% ahead of the inventory last month (327).  New sales in November (180) are 24% ahead of the pace of last November (145) and they are 5% below the pace last month (189).  There is a 1.9 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 186 homes closed in November in Santa Rosa was $617,000 compared to $600,000 a year ago – a 3% increase.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in November was 53 days.  

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of November in Sebastopol (29) is 47% below the level of November 2019 (55) and it is 37% below the inventory last month (46).  There were 37 new sales for the month of November.  This is 131% ahead of the pace in November 2019 (16) and it is 12% below the pace last month (42).  There is a 0.7 months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace.  The 40 homes that closed in Sebastopol in November went from listing to pending in just 33 days.

Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (109) at the end of November in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 18% below the inventory last November (133) and it is equal to the inventory of last month (109).  There were 37 new sales for the month. This is 61% above the 23 sales in November 2019 and it is 44% below the 66 sales last month.  There is a 2.9 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales. The average Days on Market for the 53 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in November is 49 days. Sixty-six percent (72 properties) of the inventory in the Sonoma Valley is priced at $1,000,000 or above and 38% of the new sales (14) in November were priced at over $1,000,000.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of November starts at $2,900,000.  Thirty-nine homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 17 in the twelve months prior to that.  Twenty-five of those 37 closings occurred in the three months of June, July and August.  There was a strong surge in top quartile sales in May, June July and August (36) but that dropped off in November to four new sales.  There are 28 homes available in this quartile in November 2020 compared to 23 a year ago and 28 last month. Based on the current sales pace, the months of inventory is 7 months.

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County: The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of November is 84 homes.  This is 12% below the number of mobile homes available in November 2019 (95) and it is 8% below the number of available mobile homes last month (91).  There were 33 new mobile home sales in November.  This is 6% below the pace of sales in November 2019 (35) and it is 23% below the pace of sales last month (43).  There is a 2.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 25 mobile homes closed in November was 112 days and the median price was $155,000.  This median price is 5% below the median price of $163,000 in November 2019.  

Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of November (290) is 27% below the inventory in November 2019 (395) and it is 5% below the inventory last month (305).  Sixty-two percent of the inventory in Napa County (181 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above.   New sales (123) are 37% ahead of the pace of last year (90) and are 6% below the 131 sales last month.  There is a 2.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace compared to a 4.4 months supply last year.  The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 52 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 110 homes closed in November in Napa County ($798,000) is 22% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($655,000).  Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 94% of original list price.

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $3,000,000 in Napa County at this time.  The number of closings (72) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $3,000,000) in Napa County for the period 12/1/19 to 11/30/20 compared to 46 closings in the period 12/1/18 to 11/30/19.  There are 73 luxury homes in inventory at the end of November 2020 compared to 78 at the end of November 2019. There were 5 new Luxury Home sales in November compared to 4 last year and 5 last month.  This results in a 12.2 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to a 2.4 months supply for the County as a whole. Days on market for the 8 luxury homes sales in November was 157 days.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 89% of original list price.

Napa:  Fifty-seven percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 165 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of November in the City of Napa. This is 22% below the supply at the end of November 2019 (211) and it is 6% below the inventory at the end of last month (175). New sales (89) were 48% ahead of the pace of November 2019 (60) and they were slightly below the pace of last month (91). There is a 1.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 72 closings last month was 40 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in November was $746,000. This is 15% ahead of the median price of the homes closed in November 2019 ($650,000).

Up Valley Napa County:  Up Valley Napa real estate ground to a halt beginning 9/27/20 with the outbreak of the “Glass Fire” in the area.  Inventory fell by 12% and new sales were off 56% from the prior month. The home sales market is upset by the loss of over 113 structures and the need for residents to occupy homes that were otherwise slated to be for sale in the near future.  We expect the market to be disrupted for months to come. As in the 2017 Wine Country wild fires, we will watch to see how many burned lots are brought on the market and how many owners decide to remain and rebuild – a multi-year process.

The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of November (101) is 21% below the level of 130 in November 2019 and it is 4% below the inventory last month (107).  There were 15 new sales this month compared to 17 a year ago and 19 last month.  There is now a 6.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  This is up from a 3 month supply in September.  The Days on Market for the 21 closings last month was 92 days.  Approximately 58% of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $3,000,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (42 homes).  This is down from 66% in September.  There were 6 luxury home (price in excess of $3,000,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month and there were 4 new luxury home sales.

Mobile Homes in Napa County: The mobile home market in Napa County has taken off as some fire victims are purchasing mobile homes as temporary residences while they wait for their insurance matters to be processed.  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of November is 22 homes.  This is 50% below the number of mobile homes available in November 2019 (44) and it is 21% below the available homes last month (28). There were 18 new mobile home sales in November.  This is 200% above the pace of sales in November 2019 (6) and it is slightly below the pace of sales last month (19).  There is a 1.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace compared to over a seven month supply a year ago.  The average days on market of the 16 mobile homes closed in November was 115 days and the median price was $195,000.  This is 43% above the median price of $136,000 in November 2019.  The median price was $109,000 in October so it jumped up from last month.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of November stands at 139.  This is 52% below the inventory in November 2019 (291) and it is 8% below the inventory last month (150).  New sales (74) in Mendocino County in November were 106% ahead of the pace of November 2019 (36) and they were 9% below the pace last month (81).  There now is a 1.9 months supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 70 homes sold in Mendocino County in November is 70 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the homes closed in November in Mendocino County was $492,000. This is 23% ahead of the median price in November 2019 ($401,000).  Mendocino County homes seem to be in high demand with prices rising quickly.

Ukiah: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of November in Ukiah is 30 homes.  This is 30% below the level of November 2019 (43) and it is 12% below the inventory last month (34).  There were 26 new sales for the month of November.  This is 100% above the number of sales in November 2019 (13) and it is 63% above the sales last month (16).  There is now 1.2 months of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 20 closings last month was 52 days.  The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from $370,000 to $490,000. The median price was $505,000 for the homes that closed in November – setting a new high.

Hopland and Talmage:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of November in Hopland and Talmage is 13 homes.  This is equal to the inventory of November 2019 (13) and it is 30% ahead of the inventory last month (10).  There were two new sales for the month of November.  This compares to one sale in November 2019 and three new sales last month.  There is a 6.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. Three homes closed in November in Hopland/Talmage with a Days on Market period of 65 days.

Redwood Valley and Calpella: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of November in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 11 homes. This is 31% below the level of November 2019 (16) and it is equal to the inventory last month (11).  There were 2 new sales for the month of November. This compares to 3 sales in November 2019 and 5 new sales last month.  There is a 5.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $655,000. The median selling price of the 10 homes that closed in November was $616,000.

Marin County: Marin County’s inventory (353 homes) is 4% above the 340 homes in November 2019 and it is 21% below the 448 homes in inventory last month.  New sales (271) were 39% ahead of the number last November (195) and were 30% below the pace of last month (389).  This creates a 1.3 months supply.  The median price of the 312 homes sold in Marin County in November was $1,278,000. This is 16% ahead of the median price a year ago ($1,100,000).