Wine Country Real Estate Trends in March 2020

The Impact of Coronavirus on the Wine Country Real Estate Markets:  As we remain under Shelter in Place (SIP) orders in Wine Country to support the slowing of the transmittal of the Coronavirus, the activities of Realtors, similar to many other businesses, are limited significantly.  In Sonoma and Napa Counties, as of this date, real estate brokerage activities are considered an “essential business”.  Still, Realtor activities are restricted in the following ways:

1. Doing business virtually – seeing properties, signing documents, etc.
2. Limited ability to visit vacant properties with clients
3. No ability to visit/enter occupied properties
4. The transfer of homes should be deferred, if possible, to a time when the SIP orders are lifted

There have been new listings and new sales. Our brokerage has added over 15 new listings in the past three weeks while we have been under SIP orders.  The great majority of these, and of other new listings in the area, are being identified as “Coming Soon” in our local MLS. We have also had a couple of sales taken place “sight unseen”.  That is, the buyer has not physically seen the inside of the property.  These offers are generally subject to physical inspection when the SIP orders are lifted which will not be until, at least, early May. We have seen buyers coming from more congested areas such as San Francisco.  They appear to be looking for more “space” around them.

The California Association of Realtors (CAR) has given us new forms to work with during this time.  They are designed to guide buyers and sellers in a safe and reasonable manner.

The statistics are below.  In general, inventory is down with many properties being in “Temporarily off the Market” (TOM) status in the MLS.  New sales are down in the range of 20% lower than March 2019 for most of our markets.  A number of new sales from February canceled at they progressed into March.  Closings are in line with expectations.  Prices seem to be steady at this time.

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for March 2020

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group enjoyed 31 closings in March 2020 compared to 24 last March and 45 last month.  In March, we closed homes with a total value of $24 million compared to $17 million last year and $29 million last month.  The average selling price of the properties sold by the Wine Country Group in March was $769,565.

We’ve been surprised by the amount of activity that our agents are continuing to do under the restrictive guidelines.  Our pending sales and listings are both up from last month at this time.  In the past two weeks, we’ve closed seven transactions (there are 23 closings scheduled in the next two weeks), we’ve added 4 new listings, we’ve had 4 transactions cancel we’ve opened 8 new escrows and 7 listings have been taken off of the market.

BHGRE|WCG currently has 42 pending sales with a value of $20 million dollars. We have 98 active listings with a value of $84 million dollars. Our average listing price is $857,000.

Wine Country Real Estate Trends for March 2020

 Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of March stands at 745.  This is 3% below the inventory in March 2019 (767) and it is 2% below the inventory last month (760).  At the end of the month, there were 83 listings in “Coming Soon” status and another 194 “Temporarily Off Market”.  If those were added to the “Active” inventory, there would be 1,022 active listings.  This would be consistent with the inventory levels we usually see in April.  It would also put us at 3.4 months supply of inventory. Approximately 75% of the homes in Coming Soon and TOM status are owner occupied.

New sales (304) in Sonoma County in March were 20% below the pace of March 2019 (381) and they were 11% below the pace last month (343).  It is interesting to note that the “new sales” number for February 2020 was adjusted from 386 to 343.  This would seem to indicate that 11% of those February sales canceled prior to closing.  March is typically in the heart of our “spring market” and listings and sales generally rise appreciably month over month through the end of May.  Obviously, the COVID-19 conditions are impacting the market in a negative way.

There is a 2.5 months supply of inventory in Sonoma County based on the existing sales pace.  The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 40 (Petaluma) to 136 (Coastal Sonoma) days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  This may be protracted with the current circumstances.  The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 65 days. The median price of the 320 homes closed in March in Sonoma County was $635,000.  This is 4.4% higher than the median price in March 2019 ($608,000).  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at roughly 95% of their original list price.  We have heard of price reductions in some transactions based on the current conditions, but don’t see this as a pervading trend.

Graphic For Gerry’s Article_March 2020_01

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,300,000).  There has been an 11% decrease in the number of Luxury Homes closed (362) from 4/1/19 to 3/31/20 compared to 405 closings in the period 4/1/18 to 3/31/19. The inventory of luxury homes (179) is about equal to the inventory in March 2019 (177 homes).  The pace of new sales (19) in March this year is 30% below the pace of a year ago (27) and it is 10% below the pace last month (21).  The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 66 days this March compared to 119 days a year ago. This compares to 65 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in March.  There is a 9.4 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 2.5 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market. Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 90% of original list price.

Cloverdale:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (23) in Cloverdale at the end of March is 18% below the inventory in March 2019 (28).  It is 12% below the inventory last month (25). There were 9 new sales in Cloverdale in March.  This compares to 11 sales in March 2019 and 12 new sales last month.  There is a 2.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 11 homes that closed in March was 88 days.

Coastal Sonoma:  There are 17 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This compares to 21 homes in inventory in March 2019 and 16 homes last month. There were 5 new sales in March compared to 5 a year ago and 4 last month.  There is now a 3.4 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 4 homes that closed in March was 136 days.

Healdsburg Trends:  There are 69 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month.  This is 21% below the inventory in March 2019 (87) and it is 7% below the inventory last month (74).  New sales in March (10) were 41% below the pace of sales in March 2019 (17) and they were 33% below the sales pace last month (15).  The months of available inventory is now 6.9 months based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 10 homes that closed in March was 82 days.

Oakmont: There are 39 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of March.  This is 17% below the inventory in March 2019 (47) and it is 5% below the inventory last month (41).  New sales (11) were 38% ahead of the sales pace of a year ago (8) and 39% below of the pace of last month (18).  There is a 3.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high-$500,000’s up to $800,000.  The median price was $580,000 for the 20 homes that closed in March.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in March was 84 days.

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of March (52) is 10% below the inventory in March 2019 (58) and it is 11% ahead of the inventory last month (47).  There were 36 new sales for the month.  This is 27% below the 49 sales in March 2019 and it is 16% below the 43 new sales last month.  The Petaluma market currently has 1.4 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace.  This is one of the lowest months of inventory for any of our markets in Wine Country. The median price of the 39 homes that closed in March was $775,000.  This is 6% ahead of the median price last March ($732,000).  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in March was 40 days.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of March (34) is 13% below the inventory in March 2019 (39) and it is 13% above the inventory last month (30).  There were 24 new sales in Rohnert Park in March.  This is 42% below the 41 sales in March 2019 and it is 30% below the sales last month (30).  There is a 1.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price ($545,000) of the 37 homes and condominiums that closed in March is 6% ahead of the median price a year ago ($515,000).  Days on Market for the homes that closed in March was 42 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of March in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (37) is slightly below the level of March 2019 (38) and it is 8% below the inventory last month (40).  There were 11 new sales for the month of March. This is 38% ahead of the pace in March 2019 (8) and it is 57% ahead of the pace last month (7).  There is a 3.4 months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace. The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $400,000 to the low $500,000s over the past year. The median was $415,000 for the 12 homes that closed in March.  The homes that closed in the Russian River in March went from listing to pending in 107 days.

Santa Rosa:  Forty percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of March (297) is 12% above the inventory of a year ago (265) and it is essentially equal to the inventory last month (295).  New sales in March (135) are 8% below the pace of last March (146) and they are equal to the pace last month (135).  There is a 2.2 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 130 homes closed in March in Santa Rosa was $603,000 compared to $551,000 a year ago – a 9% increase.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in March was 62 days.

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of March in Sebastopol (39) is 9% below the level of March 2019 (43) and it is 8% above the inventory last month (36).  There were 14 new sales for the month of March. This is 18% below the pace in March 2019 (17) and it is 26% below the pace last month (19).  There is a 2.8 months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace. The 13 homes that closed in Sebastopol in March went from listing to pending in 81 days.

Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (107) at the end of March in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 9% ahead of the inventory last March (98) and it is slightly below the inventory of last month (109).  At the end of the month, there were 7 listings in “Coming Soon” status and another 30 “Temporarily Off Market”.  If those were added to the “Active” inventory, there would be 144 active listings.  This would be consistent with the inventory levels we usually see in April.  It would also put us at 4.8 months supply of inventory. Approximately 80% of the homes in Coming Soon and TOM status are owner occupied.

There were 30 new sales for the month. This is 29% below the 42 sales in March 2019 and it is 14% below the 20 sales last month.  There is a 3.6 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  The average Days on Market for the 30 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in March is 86 days.  Sixty-two percent (66 properties) of the inventory in the Sonoma Valley is priced at $1,000,000 or above and 23% of the new sales (7) in March were priced at over $1,000,000.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of March starts at $2,300,000.  Twenty-four homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 29 in the twelve months prior to that.  There are 25 homes available in this quartile in March 2020 compared to 36 a year ago and 24 last month. There was one new sale in the top quartile in March. This yields a 25 month supply of inventory of luxury properties.  The closed “luxury” homes over the past year closed at a price ranging from $700 to $1,000 per square foot of building area.

Graphic For Gerry’s Article_March 2020_02

Kenwood: There are 6 available homes for sale in Kenwood as of the end of March.  Last March, there were 9 homes in inventory and last month there were 5.  The Kenwood inventory peaked in May and June of last year when there were 19 homes on the market.  The average asking price of the five homes currently available in Kenwood is $2,882,000.  There was one new sale in March compared to two a year ago and two last month.

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of March equals 40 properties.  This is essentially equal to the inventory in March 2019 (41) and it is slightly below the 42 homes last month.  There were 20 new sales for the month.  This is 26% below the pace of sales in March 2019 (27) and it is 20% below the pace of last month (25).  There is a two months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The days on market for the 20 homes that closed in March in Windsor was 50 days.  The median price ($705,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in March is 16% above the median price a year ago ($610,000).

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County: The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of March is 366 properties.  This is 20% below the number of lots in March 2019 (460) and it is slightly ahead of the number of available lots last month (363). There were 23 new lot sales in March.  This 49% below the pace of sales in March 2019 (45) and it is 40% below the pace of lot sales last month (38).  The vacant lot inventory in Sonoma County is trending downwards, however sales slowed in March.  There is a 16 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 23 lots closed in March was 171 days and the median price was $255,000 – 16% ahead of the median price a year ago ($220,000).

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County: The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of March is 84 homes.  This is 20% ahead of the number of mobile homes available in March 2019 (70) and it is 7% below the number of available homes last month (90).  There were 24 new mobile home sales in March.  This is 23% below the pace of sales in March 2019 (31) and it is 20% below the pace of sales last month (30).  There is a 3.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 18 mobile homes closed in March was 93 days and the median price was $155,000.  This median price is 10% above the median price of $141,000 in March 2019.

Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of March (302) is 12% below the inventory in March 2019 (342) and it is 9% below the inventory last month (330). At the end of the month, there were 26 listings in “Coming Soon” status and another 84 “Temporarily Off Market”.  If those were added to the “Active” inventory, there would be 412 active listings.  This would be consistent with the inventory levels we usually see in April.  It would also put us at 4.9 months supply of inventory.  Forty-nine percent of the inventory in Napa County (148 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above.   Approximately 85% of the homes in Coming Soon and TOM status are owner occupied.

New sales (84) are 18% below the pace of last year (103) and are slightly ahead of the 84 sales last month.  It is interesting to note that the “new sales” number for February 2020 was adjusted from 92 to 84.  This would seem to indicate that 9% of those February sales canceled prior to closing. There is a 3.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 82 days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. This may be protracted with the current circumstances.  The median price of the 75 homes closed in March in Napa County ($739,000) is 7% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($689,000).  Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 93% of original list price.

Graphic For Gerry’s Article_March 2020_03

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $2,200,000 in Napa County at this time.  The number of closings (76) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $2,100,000) in Napa County for the period 4/1/19 to 3/31/20 compared to 87 closings in the period 4/1/18 to 3/31/19.  This is a decrease of 13%.  There are 71 luxury homes in inventory at the end of March 2020 compared to 76 at the end of March 2019.  There were 14 new luxury home listings added in the month of March.  There were just 2 new Luxury Home sales in March compared to 9 last month.  This results in a 36 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to 3.6 months supply for the County as a whole.  Days on market for the 6 luxury homes sales in March was 72 days.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 88% of original list price.

American Canyon:  There are 13 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of March in American Canyon. This is 35% below the inventory a year ago (20) and it is 13% below the supply last month (15).  New sales (10) are 29% below the pace of last year (14) and also 67% ahead of the 6 sales last month.  There is a 1.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the five homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 59 days. The median price of the homes that closed in American Canyon in March ($700,000) was 15% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($608,000) and, though there were just five sales, this is the highest median price for any month in American Canyon.  The average price per square foot of the homes sold in American Canyon remains in the $250 to $300 range.  It remains a tight market in American Canyon.

Napa:  Fifty-four percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 164 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of March in the City of Napa. This is 13% below the supply at the end of March 2019 (189) and it is 9% below the inventory at the end of last month (176).  New sales (57) were 23% below the pace of March 2019 (74) and they were 14% below the pace of last month (66). There is a 2.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 59 closings last month was 77 days compared to 97 days in March 2019. The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in March was $725,000. This is 6% below the median price of the homes closed in March 2019 ($768,000).

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of March (89) is 9% below the level of 98 in March 2019 and it is 5% below the inventory last month (94).  There were 9 new sales this month compared to 11 a year ago and 9 last month.  There is now a 9.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 5 closings last month was 92 days.  Approximately 55% of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $2,100,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (39 homes).  There were three luxury home (price in excess of $2,100,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month and there were no new luxury home sales.

Angwin: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of March in Angwin is 11 homes. This compares to 12 homes in March 2019 and 11 homes last month.  There were no new sales in the month of March compared to none a year ago and one last month.  The average asking price of the 11 homes in inventory in Angwin is $1,849,000.

Mobile Homes in Napa County: The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of March is 32 homes.  This is 27% below the number of mobile homes available in March 2019 (44) and it is equal to the number of available homes last month (32).  There were 6 new mobile home sales in March.  This is 33% below the pace of sales in March 2019 (9) and it is 50% below the pace of sales last month (12).  There is a 5.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 7 mobile homes closed in March was 68 days and the median price was $125,000.  This is 19% below the median price of $154,000 in March 2019.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of March stands at 225.  This is 34% below the inventory in March 2019 (340) and it is slightly above the inventory last month (221).  At the end of the month, there were 6 listings in “Coming Soon” status and another 25 “Temporarily Off Market”.  If those were added to the “Active” inventory, there would be 256 active listings. This is still well below last year’s inventory in March (340).

New sales (47) in Mendocino County in March were 9% ahead of the pace of March 2019 (43) and they were 24% below the pace last month (62).  There now is a 4.8 months supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace. This is the lowest months of inventory in the past year.  The average Days on Market for homes sold in Mendocino County in March is 115 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  This may be protracted with the current circumstances. The median price of the 65 homes closed in March in Mendocino County was $399,000. This is 3% ahead of the median price in March 2019 ($386,000).

Graphic For Gerry’s Article_March 2020_04

Ukiah: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of March in Ukiah is 35 homes.  This is the lowest inventory in Ukiah in the past 18 months. It is 49% below the level of March 2019 (69) and it is equal to the inventory last month (35).  There were 15 new sales for the month of March.  This is 67% ahead of the number of sales in March 2019 (9) and it is 25% below the sales last month (20).  There is now 2.3 months of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 20 closings last month was 77 days.  The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from 360,000 to $480,000. The median price was $433,000 for the homes that closed in March.

Hopland and Talmage:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of March in Hopland and Talmage is 9 homes.  This is 40% below the level of March 2019 (15) and it is 50% ahead of the inventory last month (6).  There were no new sales for the month of March.  This compares to no sales in March 2019 and three new sales last month.  There is a 9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the three closings last month was 63 days. The median price of the homes sold in Hopland/Talmage in the past year has ranged from $250,000 to $800,000. The median price was $315,000 for the homes that closed in March.

Redwood Valley and Calpella: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of March in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 17 homes. This is 19% below the level of March 2019 (21) and it is 31% above the inventory last month (13).  There were four new sales for the month of March.  This compares to 8 sales in March 2019 and no new sales last month.  There is a 5.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $550,000.

Marin County: Marin County’s inventory (228 homes) is 44% below the 409 homes in March 2019 and it is 23% below the 296 homes in inventory last month.  New sales (127) were 49% below the number last March (247) and were 12% below last month (145).  This creates a 1.8 months supply.  The median price of the 146 homes sold in Marin County in March was $1,155,000.  This is the 1% higher than the median price a year ago ($1,144,000).