Wine Country and Northbay Real Estate Trends 

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for July 2023

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group and Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Ming Tree enjoyed 60 closings in July 2023 compared to 66 last July and 57 last month.  Since 2020, 2021 and 2022 were all unusual real estate markets, some observers are suggesting comparing current numbers to those of 2019.  In July 2019 we closed 60 homes.  This July we closed homes with a total value of $26 million compared to $35 million last year, $21 million last month and $31 million in 2/19.  The average selling price of the properties sold by BHGRE|WCG in July was $433,600. 

BHGRE|WCG-MT currently has 88 pending sales with a value of $36 million dollars.  In July 2019, we had 44 pending sales with a value of $42 million.  We are 18% behind our pending unit volume last year.  We have 168 active listings with a value of $89 million dollars compared to 112 listings with a value of $93 million in 2019.  We are 14% behind last year in our listing unit volume.  Our average listing price is $530,000.

Congratulations to the following BHGRE|Wine Country Group-Ming Tree agents who had one or more closings in the month of July.  Sheila Diegnan in Sonoma led all agents with 6 closings and Jessica Spencer in Clearlake had 5 closings.

Jessica Spencer (5), Carina De Herrera, Mara Kahn, Chelsie Runnings, Halla Hammoudeh, Misty Platt (2), Cheryl Marinaro (4), Elizabeth Uribe (4), Issac Raboy (3), Isaac Raboy (2), Kendra Martin, Dave Hughes (3), Dave Smith, Sheila Deignan (6), Jose Mendoza (2), Paige Hotchkiss (3), Kathleen Rogers, Larry Doss, Lisa Ladanyl (2),  Malachi Herrera (3), Maria Flores, Rianne Pasquariello (2),Robert Davis (2), Rollin Treheame, Sandra Riggs (4), Stephen Miner, Summer Dahlquist (2), Theresa Kessenich, Thomas Harmon and Zebi Bojarsky.

National Trends

The end of June is traditionally the “turning point” for housing across the nation.  Purchases tend to decelerate, inventory increases and prices decline through the balance of the summer.  Inventory generally peaks in July or August.  Last year (2022) inventory continued to rise and peaked in October.  This was due to the increase in interest rates in July of last year.  Last year inventory was rising at 4% to 6% per week.  This year it is flat or only slightly rising.  Inventory is currently 10% below this time last year.  Current trends indicate that inventory might end the year 15% lower.  Buyers are now figuring out how to purchase homes in the current interest rate environment.  National mortgage interest rates for a 30-year fixed rate conventional loan are currently around 7%.  If they stay in this range, the buyers will continue to purchase.  Most recent forecasts point to lower interest rates by the end of 2023 and lower still in 2024 and 2025.  Mortgage rates may reach into the mid 4% range by 2025.  The expectation has been that the appreciation rate for homes will moderate and be essentially flat or slightly negative for the year on a nationwide basis.  As of mid-July, the median price of all pending sales in the country is 3% higher than the figure from a year ago.  The current pending sales indicate where we will be with closed sales in the months ahead.  Based on current trends – real estate values may have a slight overall uptick by yearend.  Zillow is predicting a 6% increase in real estate values in 2024 while other prognosticators predict lower rates.  Buyers can benefit from stable prices now and they can “rent” the current mortgage rate and refinance down the road.  Some lenders even offer a free refi at a lower rate if the market softens.  

North Bay Real Estate Trends for July 2023

For all the areas covered by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, there is an inventory of 2,341 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of July.  Inventory is 26% below that of a year ago (3,163) and it is 2% above the inventory last month (2,304).  Since 2020, 2021 and 2022 were all unusual real estate markets, some observers are suggesting comparing current numbers to those of 2019.  In July 2019 there were 4,818 homes in inventory in the North Bay.  That was near the peak for the last decade.  Current inventory is 51% below the 2/19 level.  There were 1,101 sales for the month of July.  This number is 3% below a year ago (1,133) and slightly below the pace of last month (1,110).  It is 23% below the number of sales in July 2019 (1,477).  The median price of homes sold across our North Bay region in July was $750,000 compared to $742,000 (+1%) last July and $580,000 in July 2019 (+29%). 

I have been following a data point I call the “Price Reduction Ratio” (PRR) for the past couple of years.  Across the country, approximately 34% of the homes have a price reduction prior to their selling date.  For July 2023, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, our ratios are lower than the national average.  In the region combined, 27% of the homes sold in July had a price reduction prior to selling.  This compares to 24% last month and 27% a year ago.  The numbers were 27% for Napa County, 18% for Sonoma County and 36% for Mendocino County.  Conversely, the ratio of homes selling for more than the original asking price was 37% across the region.  This compares to 41% last month and 35% a year ago.  The numbers were 45% in Napa County, 51% in Sonoma County and 16% in Mendocino County.  Twenty-seven percent of the homes in the region had a price reduction prior to selling while 51% had a lower selling price than the original list price.  

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of July stands at 701 homes.  This is 17% below the inventory in July 2022 (842) and it is 2% below the inventory last month (714).  It compares to 1,671 listings in July 2019.  Fifty-five percent of the available homes for sale in Sonoma County at this time (386) are priced at $1,000,000 or more.  New sales (394) in Sonoma County in July were 8% above the pace of July 2022 (364) and they were 9% above the pace last month (363). There were 475 new sales in July 2019.  There is a 1.8-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County(Days on Market) varies from 23 (Oakmont) to 44 (Healdsburg) days.  For our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The average Days on Market for all the County is 35 days.  The median price of the 379 homes closed in July in Sonoma County was $824,000. This is 13% below the median price in July 2022 ($950,000).  It is 31% above the median price of $630,000 in July 2019.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 99% of their original list price.  In July, 51% of the homes in Sonoma County sold at a price more than the original asking price and 18% of the homes had a reduction in price before they sold.  Thirty-four percent of the homes closed last month had a lower selling price than the original list price.

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price more than ($2,200,000).  There has been a 30% decrease in the number of Luxury Homes closed (190) from 8/1/22 to 7/31/23 compared to 271 closings in the period 8/1/21 to 7/31/22.  The inventory of luxury homes (176) is 17% above the inventory in July 2022 (150 homes) and it is 3% below the inventory last month (181).  The pace of new sales (25) in July this year is 39% above the pace of a year ago (18) and it is 11% below the pace last month (28).  The Days on Market for 22 Luxury Home closings was 43 days this July.  The Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in July was 35 days.  There is a 7-month supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 1.8-month supply in the overall Sonoma County market.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 97% of original list price.

Cloverdale:  There are 28 homes and condominiums available in Cloverdale.  This compares to 25 homes in inventory in July 2022 and 29 homes last month.  There were 11 new sales in July compared to 9 a year ago and 12 last month.  There is now a 3.1-month supply of inventory in Cloverdale based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 9 homes that closed in July is 32 days.  

Coastal Sonoma:  There are 14 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This compares to 10 homes in inventory in July 2022 and 13 homes last month.  There were 2 new sales in July compared to 2 a year ago and 1 last month.  The Days on Market for the 2 homes that closed in July is 35 days.  

Healdsburg Trends:  There are 78 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month.  This is 22% above the inventory in July 2022 (64) and it is 13% above the inventory last month (69).  New sales in July (18) were 6% above the pace of sales in July 2022 (17) and they equal to the pace of sales last month (18).  There are 4.3-months of available inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 14 homes that closed in July is 44 days.  

Oakmont:  There are 11 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of July.  This is 61% below the inventory in July 2022 (28) and it is 21% below the inventory of last month (14).  New sales (18) were 80% ahead the sales pace of a year ago (10) and they were 5% below the pace of last month (19).  For the sixth month in a row the sales exceeded the number of listings available at the beginning of the month in Oakmont.  There is a 0.6-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  Oakmont is one of the hottest markets in the North Bay.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high $500,000’s up to $849,000.  The median price was $832,000 for the 18 homes that closed in July.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in July is 23 days.  

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of July (68) is 33% below the inventory in July 2022 (101) and it is essentially equal to the inventory last month (69).  There were 36 new sales for the month.  This is 16% below the sales in July 2022 (43) and it is 28% below the sales pace last month (50).  The Petaluma market currently has 1.9 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 40 homes that closed in July was $943,000.  This is slightly above the median price last July ($940,000).  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in July is 29 days.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of July (32) is 22% below the inventory in July 2022 (41) and it is 10% above the inventory last month (29).  There were 33 new sales in Rohnert Park in July.  This sales pace is slightly below the 34 sales in July 2022 and it is 14% above the sales last month 29).  There is a 1.0-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price ($759,000) of the 27 homes and condominiums that closed in July is 1% above the median price in July a year ago ($750,000).  Days on Market for the homes that closed in July is 30 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of July in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (59) is equal to the level of July 2022 (59) and it is 11% above the inventory last month (53).  There were 24 new sales for the month of July.  This is 33% above the pace in July 2022 (18) and it is 11% below the pace last month (27).  There is a 2.5-month supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace.  The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $450,000 to $750,000 over the past year.  The median was $658,000 for the 26 homes that closed in July.  The homes that closed in the Russian River in July went from listing to pending in 42 days.

Santa Rosa:  Thirty percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of July (213) is 24% below the inventory of a year ago (279) and it is 10% below the inventory last month (236).  New sales in July (163) are 10% above the pace of last July (148) and they are 23% above the 133 sales last month.  There is a 1.3-month supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 125 homes closed in July in Santa Rosa was $760,000 which is 4% above the $737,000 price a year ago.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in July is 33 days.  

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of July in Sebastopol is 44 homes.  This is 32% below the inventory last July (65) and it is 10% above the inventory last month (40).  There were 23 new sales for the month of July.  This is 5% above the pace in July 2022 (22) and it is 44% above the pace last month (16). There is a 1.9-month supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace.  The 15 homes that closed in Sebastopol in July went from listing to pending in 36 days.

Sonoma Valley:  The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (116) at the end of July in the Sonoma Valley is essentially equal to the inventory last July (115) and it is 3% below the inventory of last month (120).  Sixty-nine percent of the available properties in the Sonoma Valley (79) are priced at $1,000,000, or more.  There were 39 new sales for the month. This is 8% above the 36 sales in July 2022 and it is 9% below the 43 sales last month.  There is a 3 -month supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  The average Days on Market for the 37 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in July is 43 days.  The closings in the month had a selling price equal to 95% of the original listing price.  In July, 33% of the homes in the Sonoma Valley sold at a price more than the original list price and 25% had a reduction in price before they sold.  Fifty-threepercent of the homes in the Valley had a lower selling price than the original list price.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of July starts at $3,250,000.  Twenty-eight homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 48 in the twelve months prior to that.  This is a decrease of 42%.  In July, there were 5 new sales in this quartile.  There are 29 homes available in this quartile in July 2023 compared to 34 a year ago and 32 last month.  

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of July is 25 properties.  This is 43% below the inventory in July 2022 (44) and it is 14% below the 29 homes in inventory last month.  There were 23 sales in the month.  This is 35% above the pace of sales in July 2022 (17) and it is slightly above the pace of last month (22).  There is a 1.1-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The days on market for the 15 homes that closed in July 2023 in Windsor is 41 days.  The median price ($825,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in July compares to a median price a year ago ($785,000) – a 5% increase.

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of July is 62 homes.  This is 22% above the number of mobile homes available in July 2022 (51) and it is 3% above the number of available mobile homes last month (60).  There were 39 new mobile home sales in July.  This is 18% above the pace of sales in July 2022 (33) and it is 9% below the pace of sales last month (43).  There is a 1.6-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 31 mobile homes closed in July is 74 days and the median price was $153,000 compared to $211,000 a year ago and $202,000 last month.  The activity in the mobile home market is strong right now.

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of July is 340 properties. The current inventory is 14% above the number of lots in July 2022 (299) and it is 3% above the number of available lots last month (330). There were 22 new lot sales in July.  This is 57% above the pace of sales in July 2022 (14) and it is 29% below the pace of lot sales last month (31).  There is a 15.5-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 17 lots closed in July is 147 days and the median price is $300,000 compared to $310,000 a year ago and $295,000 last month.   

Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of July (291) is 3% below the inventory in July 2022 (301) and it is 5% below the inventory last month (306).  It is 50% below the inventory in July 2019 (581).  Sixty-nine percent of the inventory in Napa County (201 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above.  New sales (96) are 3% above the pace of last year (93) and are 17% above the 82 sales last month.  The sales pace is 14% below that of July 2019 (112).  There is a 3-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the homes closing in Napa County is currently 56 days.  In our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 88 homes closed in July in Napa County ($864,000) is 11% below the median price of a year ago ($968,000) and it is 29% ahead of the price in July 2019 ($669,000).  Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 94% of original list price.  In July, 45% of the homes in Napa County sold for more than their original list price. Twenty-seven percent of the homes had a price reduction prior to selling.  Forty-seven percent of homes closed at a price less than their original list price. 

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market currently begins at $3,950,000 in Napa County.  There has been a decrease of 34% for the number of closings (33) of Luxury Homes (sales price more than $3,950,000) in Napa County for the period 8/1/22 to 7/31/23 compared to 50 closings in the period 8/1/21 to 7/31/22.  This continues a trend where we see a decrease in the number of luxury home sales.  There are 72 luxury homes in inventory at the end of July 2023 compared to 67 homes in inventory at the end of July 2022 and 83 last month. There were 2 new Luxury Home sales in July compared to 2 last year and 1 last month.  This creates a 36-month supply of inventory.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 85% of original asking price and the 4 homes that closed last month were on the market for 94 days.

American Canyon:  There are 12 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of July in American Canyon. Last year there were 25 homes in inventory and there were 10 homes in inventory last month.  There were 12 new sales in the month.  This compares to 5 new homes sales last July and 11 new sales last month.  There is a 1.0-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for 10 homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 25 days. The median price of the homes that closed in American Canyon in July ($653,000) compares to a median price of ($785,000) a year ago.  The median price in American Canyon can fluctuate quite a bit from month to month.  The average price per square foot of the homes sold in American Canyon was at $366 last month.  This is in line the $300 to $400 per square foot range where the sales have been over the past several years.

Napa:  Forty-six percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 135 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of July in the City of Napa. This is 14% below the supply at the end of July 2022 (157) and it is 7% below the inventory at the end of last month (145).  It is 57% below the inventory in 2019 (315).  New sales (64) were slightly ahead of the pace of July 2022 (63) and they 7% ahead of the pace of last month (60). They were 16% below the 76 sales in July 2019.  There is a 2.1-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. There was a 4.1-month supply in 2/19.  The Days on Market for the 59 closings last month is 40 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in July was $865,000. This is 11% below the median price of the homes closed in July 2022 ($975,000) and it is 30% ahead of the price in July 2019 ($667,000).

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of July (116) is 14% above the level of 102 in July 2022 and it is 5% below the inventory last month (122).  There were 16 new sales this month compared to 24 a year ago and 11 last month.  There is now a 7.3-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 18 closings last month is 95 days.  Forty-nine percent of the Luxury Market inventory (price more than $3,950,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (35 homes). There were four luxury home (price more than $4,200,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month and there were two new luxury home sales.

Angwin:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Angwin at the end of July (14) compares to 14 in July 2022 and 13 last month.  There were 2 new sales this month compared to 3 a year ago and one last month.  The average asking price for the 14 homes on the market in Angwin is $3,695,000.

Mobile Homes in Napa County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of July is 32 homes.  This is 33% above the number of mobile homes available in July 2022 (24) and it is 14% above the 28 available homes last month.  There were 9 new mobile home sales in July.  This compares to 8 home sales last July 2022 and 12 sales last month.  There is a 3.6-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 7 mobile homes closed in July is 35 days and the median price was $257,000.  This compares to a median price of $187,000 in July 2022 and $198,000 last month.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of July stands at 299.  This is 12% below the inventory in July 2022 (340) and it is 5% above the inventory last month (286).  New sales (59) in Mendocino County in July were 28% above the pace of July 2022 (46) and they were 9% above the pace last month (54).  There now is a 5.1-month supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 56 homes sold in Mendocino County in July is 70 days.  For our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the homes closed in July in Mendocino County was $543,000.  Generally, the median price of sold homes in Mendocino has been between $475,000 and $600,000.  Over the past four months, Mendocino County homes are selling at roughly 93% of original asking price.  In July, 16% of the homes in Mendocino County sold at a price greater than the original asking price.  36% of the homes showed a price reduction at the time they sold.  Seventy-three percent of homes closed at a price less than their original list price.

Ukiah:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of July in Ukiah is 57 homes.  This is 28% below the level of July 2022 (79) and it is 16% above the inventory last month (49).  There were 21 new sales for the month of July.  This is 62% above the 13 sales in July 2022 and it is 17% above the 18 sales last month.  There are 2.7 months of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 17 homes sold in Ukiah in July is 71 days.  The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from $450,000 to $640,000. The median price was $570,000 for the homes that closed in July.  

Redwood Valley and Calpella:  The inventory of homes for sale at the end of July in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 26 homes.  This compares to 38 homes in July 2022 and 26 homes last month.  There were 7 new sales for the month of July.  This compares to 6 sales in July 2022 and 4 new sales last month.  There is a 3.7-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $725,000.  There were 3 closings in Redwood Valley/Calpella in July at a price of $564,000 and the home sold in 83 days. 

Hopland and Talmage:  The inventory of homes for sale at the end of July in Hopland and Talmage is 10 homes.  This compares to 14 homes in inventory at the end of July 2022 and 8 homes in inventory last month.  There were 2 new sales in the month of July.  This compares to no sales in July 2022 and 1 new sale last month.  There was 1 closing in this area last month.  

Lake County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Lake County at the end of July stands at 501.  Approximately 32% of the inventory (159 homes) is in the communities of Clearlake and another 11% (57 homes) are in Lakeport.  The countywide inventory is slightly below the inventory in July 2022 (509) and it is 7% above the inventory last month (467).  It compares to an inventory of 598 homes in July 2019.  Closed sales (92) in Lake County in July were 9% below the pace of July 2022 (101) and they were 5% below the pace last month (97).  There now is a 6.7-month supply of inventory in Lake County based on the existing sales pace.  The median Days on Market for the homes sold in Lake County in July is 29 days.  Usually “Days on Market” are traced from listing date to pending date, so the closing date would be somewhat longer.  The median price of the homes closed in July in Lake County was $309,500. This is 3% above the median price in July 2022 ($300,000) and it is 11% below the median price last month ($347,000).  It is 35% above the median sales price of $229,000 in July 2019.  The homes sold in Lake County last month sold at 97% of original list price.

Humboldt County:  Sid Anderson of our Eureka office (though he lives in Montana) does a wonderful analysis of the real estate markets in Humboldt County which includes our offices in Eureka and Fortuna.  For more detailed information – let me know and I’ll send it to you.  Here’s his highlights for the month of July:

July is usually the highwater mark for sold homes in any year in Humboldt County.  This year was no exception as there were 97 sold homes for the month – the highest for any month this year.  This compares to 100 sold homes last year and 93 last month.  Comparing to 2019, there were 139 homes sold then.  The median price of the sold homes this July was also the highest for the year – $465,000.  This is 3% less than a year ago ($480,000), 4% higher than last month ($448,000) and 43% higher than in 2019 ($325,000).

Marin County:  Marin County is often considered a “feeder” county to our North Bay Wine Country markets.  Marin County’s inventory (324 homes) is 27% below the 444 homes in July 2022 and it is just below the 325 homes in inventory last month.  It is 57% below the 762 homes available in July 2019.  New sales (170) were 20% below the number last July (213) and were 29% below the pace of last month (238).  They were 27% below the 232 sales in July 2019.  There is a 1.9-month supply of inventory at the end of July 2023 compared to a 3.3-month supply in July 2019.  The median price of the 191 homes sold in Marin County in July is $1,475,000.  This is slightly above the median price a year ago ($1,465,000) and it is 31% above the median sales price in July 2019 ($1,125,000).