Wine Country and North Bay Real Estate Trends

Forecasts for 2026

Brian Buffini, a well-known trainer/coach for real estate professionals throughout the world, recently presented his 2026 forecasts to over 35,000 “Zoom Watchers” along with a live audience in Las Vegas.  Over three hours, Buffini made the following observations:

         The pandemic period was an “artificial market”

         The current seller profile is:   Median age: 64; Tenure in home:  11 years; 66% downsizing; 34% increasing home size – often for multi-generational living

         The current 1^st time homebuyer is 40 years old (up from 33 years in 2019); Represent 21% of all homebuyers (down from 33% in 2019); 32% have children under the age of 18; 50% are couples, 25% are single women and 10% are single men.

He the following predictions:

         A return to the market of 2019.  In 2019 available inventory was 1.2 million homes across the country and at the end of 2025 it is 1.36 million.  It fell as low as 556,000 homes in the interim 

         There will be 20% fewer sales agent in the market in 2026 and the market will have a 14% increase in sales over 2025 

         There will be a “return to seasonality” with a strong “Spring” selling market and a rise and fall through the Summer market into the Fall and Winter.

North Bay Real Estate Trends for November 2025

For all the areas covered by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, the inventory dropped to 3,317 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of November.  Inventory is 15% below the inventory last month (3,880) while it remains 15% ahead of the inventory a year ago (2,895).  The drop in inventory and sales at this time of year is typical.  There were 901 new sales for the month of November.  This number is 6% above a year ago (851) and it is 24% below the pace of last month (1,181).  The median price of homes sold across our North Bay region in November was $718,000 which is 1.5% below the $729,000 median price last November.  

The “Price Reduction Ratio” (PRR) is considered a leading indicator of future prices for sales and closings.  The range in our region over the course of the past year is 29% to 52% with the lower range being in the Spring.  For November 2025, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, our ratio was 44%.  The ratio was 49% last month and 47% a year ago.  In November 2019, the ratio was 36%.  The numbers for this November were 40% for Sonoma County, 43% for Napa County and 42% for Mendocino County.  Conversely, the ratio of homes selling for more than the original asking price was 17% across the region.  This compares to 14% last month, 19% a year ago and 19% in 2019.  The numbers were 23% in Sonoma County, 21% in Napa County and 11% in Mendocino County.  Forty-four percent of the homes in the region had a price reduction prior to going into contract while 76% had a lower selling price than the original list price upon closing.  So, as is usual, most homes take a price reduction either before or in the offer/sale/closing process. 

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of November stands at 976 homes.  This is 19% above the inventory in November 2024 (819) and it is 16% below the inventory last month (1,159).  New sales (320) in Sonoma County in November were 23% above the pace of November 2024 (260) and they were 17% below the pace last month (385).  There is a 3.1-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The time it takes to sell a home in Sonoma County is 75 days.  For our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 311 homes closed in November in Sonoma County was $780,000. This is 4% above the median price in November 2024 ($750,000).  The annualized average price ($999,818) of all homes sold in the County also increased slightly in the past twelve months.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 94% of their original list price.  In November, 20% of the homes in Sonoma County sold at a price more than the original asking price and 48% of the homes had a price reduction before they sold.  Seventy-two percent of the homes closed last month had a lower selling price than the original list price.

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price more than $1,900,000).  There has been a 5% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (291) from 12/1/24 to 11/30/25 compared to 267 closings in the period 12/1/23 to 11/30/24.  The inventory of luxury homes (246) is 6% above the inventory in November 2024 (232 homes) and it is 14% below the inventory last month 285).  The pace of new sales (22) in November is 69% ahead of last year’s pace (13) and it is 37% below the sales pace last month (35).  The Days on Market for 23 Luxury Home closings was 113 days this November.  The Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in November was also 75 days.  There is a 11-month supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 3-month supply in the overall Sonoma County market.  Sonoma County Luxury Homes sold at roughly 87% of original list price in November. 

Oakmont:  There are 24 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of November.  This is 9% above the inventory in November 2024 (22) and it is 29% below the inventory of last month (34).  New sales (12) were 29% below the sales pace of a year ago (17) and they were also 29% below the pace of last month (17).  There is a 2-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the low $600,000’s up to $850,000.  The median price was $680,000 for the 14 homes that closed in November.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in November is 74 days.  

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of November (66) is 7% below the inventory in November 2024 (71) and it is also 7% below the inventory last month (71).  There were 31 new sales for the month.  This is 18% below the sales in November 2024 (38) and it is 35% below the sales pace last month (48).  The Petaluma market currently has 2.1-months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 27 homes that closed in November was $850,000.  This is 10% below the median price last November ($940,000).  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in November is 57 days.  The sales price to original list price in November was 95%.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of November (72) is 67% above the inventory in November 2024 (43) and it is 4% above the inventory last month (69).  There were 28 new sales in Rohnert Park in November.  This sales pace is 4% above the 27 sales in November 2024 and it is also 24% below the sales last month (37).  There is a 2.8-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price ($705,000) of the 28 homes and condominiums that closed in November is 3% below the median price in November a year ago ($725,000).  Days on Market for the homes that closed in November is 72 days and homes closed at 95% of their original list price.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of November in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (59) is 26% above the level of November 2024 (47) and it is 22% below the inventory last month (75).  There were 11 new sales for the month of November.  This is slightly above the pace in November 2024 (10) and it is 27% below the pace last month (15).  There is a 5.4-month supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace.  The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $500,000 to $640,000 over the past year.  The median was $575,000 for the 19 homes that closed in November.  The homes that closed in the Russian River in July went from listing to pending in 103 days and sold for 94% of their original list price.

Santa Rosa:  Thirty-three percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of November (322) is 15% above the inventory of a year ago (279) and it is 21% below the inventory last month (405).  New sales in November (138) are 37% above the pace of last November (101) and they are 4% below the 144 sales last month.  There is 2.3-month supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 119 homes closed in November in Santa Rosa was $701,000 which is 3% above the $682,000 price a year ago.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in November is 66 days.  The sales price to original list price in November was 96%.

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of November in Sebastopol is 49 homes.  This is 26% above the inventory last November (39) and it is 11% below the inventory last month (55).  There were 16 new sales for the month of November compared to 22 a year ago and 33 last month.  There is a 3.1-month supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace.  The 28 homes that closed in Sebastopol in November went from listing to pending in 77 days and sold at a ratio of 92% to original list price.

Sonoma Valley:  The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (160) at the end of November in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 29% above the inventory last November (124) and it is 22% below the inventory of last month (206).  There were 42 new sales for the month. This is 75% above the 24 sales in November 2024 and it is 11% below the 47 sales last month.  There is a 3.8-month supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  The average Days on Market for the 44 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in November is 97 days.  The closings in the month had a selling price equal to 89% of the original listing price.  The annualized average price ($1,457,639) of all homes sold in the Sonoma Valley decreased 5% in the past twelve months.  In November, 18% of the homes in the Sonoma Valley sold at a price more than the original list price and 45% had a reduction in price before they sold.  Seventy-one percent of the homes in the Valley had a lower selling price than the original list price.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of November starts at $2,950,000.  Thirty-six homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 43 in the twelve months prior to that – a 16% decrease.  In November, there were 9 closings and 5 new sales in this quartile comparing to 4 closings and 3 new sales a year ago and 4 closings and 11 new sales last month. There are 40 homes available in this quartile in November 2025 compared to 34 a year ago and 57 last month creating a 8 month supply of inventory based on the pace of new sales.  

Sonoma Valley Townhomes and Condominiums:  As a subset of the Sonoma Valley market, there were 11 townhomes and condominiums on the market at the end of November.  This is 38% above than the 8 units a year ago and 15% below than the 13 units last month.  There was one new sale in November compared to 0 in November 2024 and 5 last month.  Sales averaged four to five units per month over the course of last year. Average days on market for the 3 closed sales in November was 139 days.  The sales price to original list price was 96% for these closings.

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of November is 83 homes.  This is 719% above the 70 mobile homes available in November 2024 and it is essentially equal to the number of available mobile homes last month (82).  There were 22 new mobile home sales in November.  This is 15% below the pace of sales in November 2024 (26) and it is 41% below the pace of sales last month (37).  There is a 3.8-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 25 mobile homes closed in November is 73 days and the median price was $211,000 compared to $200,000 a year ago and $215,000 last month.

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of November is 359 properties. The current inventory is 4% above the number of lots in November 2024 (347) and it is 7% below the number of available lots last month (384). There were 13 new lot sales in November.  This compares to 18 sales in November 2024 and 15 lot sales last month. There is a 28-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 7 lots closed in November is 115 days and the median price is $305,000 compared to $400,000 a year ago and $320,000 last month.   

Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of November (482) is 17% above the inventory in November 2024 (411) and it is 14% below the inventory last month (561).  New sales (75) are 3% below the pace of last year (77) and are 28% below the sales last month (104).  There is 6.4-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the homes closing in Napa County is currently 97 days.  In our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 77 homes closed in November in Napa County ($900,000) is slightly above the median price of a year ago ($895,000).  The annualized average price ($1,336,839) of all homes sold in the County increased 3% in the past twelve months.  Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 90% of original list price.  In November, 21% of the homes in Napa County sold at a price that was more than the original asking price and 43% of sold homes had a price reduction prior to sale.  Seventy-five percent of the homes sold at a price that was less than the original asking price.  

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market currently begins at $2,850,000 in Napa County. There has been a 10% increase in the number of closings (69) of Luxury Homes (sales price more than $2,850,000) in Napa County for the period 12/1/24 to 11/30/25 compared to 62 closings in the period 12/1/23 to 11/30/24.  There are 120 luxury homes in inventory at the end of November 2025 compared to 118 homes in inventory at the end of November 2024 and 133 last month. There were 5 new Luxury Home sales in November compared to 5 last year and 13 last month.  This creates a 24-month supply of inventory.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 85% of original asking price and the 7 homes that closed last month were on the market 71 days.

Napa:  Fifty-eight percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 281 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of November in the City of Napa. This is 21% above the supply at the end of November 2024 (233) and it is 16% below the inventory at the end of last month (333).  New sales (56) are 8% ahead of the pace of November 2024 (52) and they are 29% below the pace of last month (79).  There is a 5-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 59 closings last month is 96 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in November was $915,000.  It is 3% above the median price of the homes closed in November 2024 ($891,000).  The closings in the month had a selling price equal to 90% of the original listing price.  

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of November (152) is 7% above the level of 142 in November 2024 and it is 14% below the inventory last month (175).  There were 12 new sales this month compared to 12 a year ago and 15 last month.  There is now a 13-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 12 closings last month is 111 days.  Over the past four months, Up Valley homes are selling at roughly 88% of original list price.  Forty-eight percent of the Luxury Market inventory (price more than $2,850,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (57 homes). There was 1 Luxury Home (price more than $2,850,000) closing in the Up Valley Market last month and there was 1 new Luxury Home sale.

Angwin:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Angwin at the end of November (25) compares to 23 in November 2024 and 28 last month.  There were 2 new sales this month compared to one a year ago and one last month.  The average asking price for the 25 homes on the market in Angwin is $2,099,000.

Mobile Homes in Napa County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of November is 46 homes.  This is 46% ahead of the number of mobile homes available in November 2024 (32) and it is 10% above the 42 available homes last month.  There were 6 new mobile home sales in November.  This compares to 10 home sales last November and 11 sales last month.  There is a 7.7-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 8 mobile homes closed in November was 117 days and the median price was $181,000.  This compares to a median price of $236,000 in November 2024 and $178,000 last month.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of November stands at 370.  This is 10% above the inventory in November 2024 (335) and it is 5% below the inventory last month (391).  New sales (45) in Mendocino County in November are essentially equal to the pace of November 2024 (44) and they are 27% below the pace last month (57).  There now is a 8-month supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 45 homes sold in Mendocino County in November is 85 days.  For our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of sold homes in Mendocino has been between $400,000 and $600,000 over the past year.  The median price of the homes closed in November in was $495,000.  The annualized average price ($565,224) of all homes sold in the County is 5% below the average price a year ago.  Over the past four months, Mendocino County homes are selling at roughly 91% of original asking price.  In November, 11% of the homes in Mendocino County sold at a price greater than the original asking price.  Forty-two percent of the homes showed a price reduction prior to selling and 82% of homes closed at a price less than their original list price.

Marin County:  Marin County is often considered a “feeder” county to our North Bay Wine Country markets.  Marin County’s inventory (394 homes) is 10% above the 358 homes in November 2024 and it is 24% below the 520 homes in inventory last month.  New sales (153) are 6% below the number last November (163) and they are 35% below the pace of last month (236).  There is a 2.5-month supply of inventory at the end of November 2025.  The median price of the 184 homes sold in Marin County in June is $1,380,000.  This is essentially equal to the median price a year ago ($1,385,000).  Homes sold in an average of 47 days and at 96% of original asking price.

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