Wine Country and Northbay Real Estate Trends 

Company Transition

As of June 1, 2024, we are no longer using the Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate brands.  We are excited to continue serving our clients, agents and communities as Reserve Properties.  Reserve Properties is a trusted full-service boutique real estate brokerage providing personal and high-level service to our clients throughout the Northern California Wine Country area.  Besides our residential clients, we serve our investor clients through Better Invested Property Management and Reserve Property Management, our commercial clients through Mason McDuffie Commercial Real Estate and Orion Partners, Ltd., and our wine industry clients through Michael Crain Properties.  Please contact me if you have any questions and if we can be of service.  Stay posted.

Industry Transition

Many of you may have heard of the multiple class action lawsuits against the National Association of Realtors, the major real estate brokerage firms and MLSs around the country.  The Department of Justice has also had a long-standing inquiry into the National Association of Realtors and industry practices.  As a result of these lawsuits and proposed settlements, industry practices will be changing starting later this month into August and thereafter.  Listing procedures, buyer representation practices and compensation practices will all be handled in ways different from historical norms.  Changes in State laws are also in the works. The underlying objective is to make real estate practices more transparent to the public.  I’m one who looks at change as a positive force for improvement and view this in the same way.  I am working on an outline that summarizes these changes and will share that with you as it evolves in the next few weeks.

National Trends

As of this week, new sales are trending down, new inventory is trending down and the growth in home prices is decelerating.  Then, this week, mortgage interest rates declined in response to inflation and employment data.  Maybe the yearlong expectation of decreasing interest rates will materialize soon?  Unsold inventory remains 38% ahead of the number of homes last year at this time though the rate of increase has ebbed.  Looking at the last “normal” market in 2019, inventory remains 32% below the levels at this time then.  Lower rates generally will increase buyer demand which will decrease available inventory.  There were more price reductions prior to sale in recent weeks than in the same period last year.  The national Price Reduction Ratio now stands at 38%.  With increased demand, this ratio will fall.  Indicators for future sales prices show flat to slight growth, generally in the 0% to 3% range, by year end.   

North Bay Real Estate Trends for June 2024

For all the areas covered by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, there is an inventory of 3,126 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of June.  Inventory is up 36% from a year ago (2,304) and it is 5% above the inventory last month (2,972).  Inventory growth is slowing as we enter the summer holiday season.  There were 1,166 new sales for the month of June.  This number is 6% above a year ago (1,101) and it is 6% below the pace of last month (1,238).  The median price of homes sold across our North Bay region in June was $745,000 which is 3.5% above the $720,000 last June.

The “Price Reduction Ratio” (PRR) is considered a leading indicator of future prices for sales and closings.  Across the country, approximately 38% of the homes have a price reduction prior to their selling date.  The higher the ratio, the more likely price appreciation will be less in the coming months.  In normal years, this ratio is in the 30% to 35% range with the higher part of the range being in the Fall months.  For June 2024, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, our ratios are generally below the national figures.  In the region combined, 31% of the homes sold in June had a price reduction prior to selling. This compares to 29% last month and 24% a year ago.  The numbers were 22% for Napa County, 26% for Sonoma County and 38% for Mendocino County.  Conversely, the ratio of homes selling for more than the original asking price was 27% across the region.  This compares to 32% last month and 41% a year ago.  The numbers were 22% in Napa County, 41% in Sonoma County and 19% in Mendocino County.  Thirty-one percent of the homes in the region had a price reduction prior to selling while 58% had a lower selling price than the original list price upon closing.  

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of June stands at 981 homes.  This is 37% above the inventory in June 2023 (714) and it is 7% above the inventory last month (917).  The rate of the rise in inventory is tapering off as it typically does in the summer months.  Fifty-two percent of the available homes for sale in Sonoma County (500) currently are priced at $1,000,000 or more.  New sales (414) in Sonoma County in June were 16% above the pace of June 2023 (356) and they were 2% below the pace last month (423).  There is a 2.4-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The time it takes to sell a home in Sonoma County is 43 days.  For our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 363 homes closed in June in Sonoma County was $800,000. This is slightly below the median price in June 2023 ($807,000).  The annualized average price ($1,019,581) of all homes sold in the County increased 3.5% in the past twelve months.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 98% of their original list price.  In June, 41% of the homes in Sonoma County sold at a price more than the original asking price and 26% of the homes had a reduction in price before they sold.  Forty-seven percent of the homes closed last month had a lower selling price than the original list price.

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price more than $2,200,000).  There has been a 8% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (198) from 7/1/23 to 6/30/24 compared to 183 closings in the period 7/1/22 to 6/30/23.  The inventory of luxury homes (249) is 38% above the inventory in June 2023 (181 homes) and it is 9% above the inventory last month (228).  The pace of new sales (23) in June is 12% below last year’s pace (26) and it is 8% below the sales pace last month (25).  The Days on Market for 20 Luxury Home closings was 104 days this June.  The Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in June was 43 days.  There is a 11-month supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 2.4-month supply in the overall Sonoma County market.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 93% of original list price.  

Healdsburg Trends:  There are 97 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month.  This is 41% above the inventory in June 2023 (69) and it is 8% above the inventory last month (90).  New sales in June (13) were 24% below the pace of sales in June 2023 (17) and they were 32% below the pace of sales last month (19).  There are 7.5-months of available inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 11 homes that closed in June is 59 days.  

Oakmont:  There are 27 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of June.  This is 93% above the inventory in June 2023 (14) and it is slightly above the inventory of last month (26).  New sales (10) were 47% below the sales pace of a year ago (19) and they were 50% above the pace of last month (20).  There is a 2.7-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the low $600,000’s up to $832,000.  The median price was $696,000 for the 18 homes that closed in June.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in June is 38 days.  

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of June (90) is 30% above the inventory in June 2023 (69) and it is 6% above the inventory last month (85).  There were 53 new sales for the month.  This is 6% above the sales in June 2023 (50) and it is 51% above the sales pace last month (35).  The Petaluma market currently has 1.7 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 41 homes that closed in June was $999,000.  This is slightly below the median price last June ($1,006,000).  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in June is 46 days.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of June (56) is 93% above the inventory in June 2023 (29) and it is 15% above the inventory last month (49).  There were 34 new sales in Rohnert Park in June.  This sales pace is 17% above the 29 sales in June 2023 and it is 13% below the sales last month (39).  There is a 1.6-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price ($746,000) of the 32 homes and condominiums that closed in June is 7% above the median price in June a year ago ($696,000).  Days on Market for the homes that closed in June is 42 days.

Santa Rosa:  Thirty-four percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of June (322) is 36% above the inventory of a year ago (236) and it is 12% above the inventory last month (268).  New sales in June (154) are 19% above the pace of last June (130) and they are 12% below the 174 sales last month.  There is 2.1-month supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 143 homes closed in June in Santa Rosa was $750,000 which is essentially equal to the $754,000 price a year ago.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in June is 40 days.  

Sonoma Valley:  The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (164) at the end of June in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 37% above the inventory last June (120) and it is 12% above the inventory of last month (147).  There were 47 new sales for the month. This is 12% above the 42 sales in June 2023 and it is 27% above the 37 sales last month.  There is a 3.5-month supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  The average Days on Market for the 33 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in June is 60 days.  The closings in the month had a selling price equal to 93% of the original listing price.  The annualized average price ($1,623,736) of all homes sold in the Sonoma Valley increased 16% in the past twelve months.  In June, 31% of the homes in the Sonoma Valley sold at a price more than the original list price and 34% had a reduction in price before they sold.  Sixty-six percent of the homes in the Valley had a lower selling price than the original list price.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of June starts at $3,650,000.  Twenty-nine homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 17 in the twelve months prior to that.  In June, there were 3 closings and 4 new sales in this quartile comparing to 2 closings and 6 new sales a year ago and 7 closings and 4 new sales last month. There are 41 homes available in this quartile in June 2024 compared to 29 a year ago and 37 last month.  

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of June is 74 homes.  This is 23% above the 60 mobile homes available in June 2023 and it is 6% above the number of available mobile homes last month (70).  There were 37 new mobile home sales in June.  This is 14% below the pace of sales in June 2023 (43) and it is just above the pace of sales last month (36).  There is a 2-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 21 mobile homes closed in June is 57 days and the median price was $195,000 compared to $202,000 a year ago and $160,000 last month.  

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of June is 352 properties. The current inventory is 7% above the number of lots in June 2023 (330) and it is also 7% above the number of available lots last month (330). There were 25 new lot sales in June.  This is 14% below the pace of sales in June 2023 (29) and it is equal to the pace of lot sales last month (25).  There is a 14-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 20 lots closed in June is 160 days and the median price is $400,000 compared to $295,000 a year ago and $369,000 last month.   

Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of June (376) is 23% above the inventory in June 2022 (306) and it is 8% above the inventory last month (348).  New sales (79) are 2.5% below the pace of last year (81) and are 10% below the sales last month (88).  There is a 4.8-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the homes closing in Napa County is currently 77 days.  In our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 77 homes closed in June in Napa County ($890,000) is 10% above the median price of a year ago ($810,000).  The annualized average price ($1,264,553) of all homes sold in the County decreased 2% in the past twelve months.  Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 95% of original list price.  In June, 22% of the homes in Napa County sold at a price that was more than the original asking price and 30% of sold homes had a price reduction prior to sale.  Sixty-one percent of the homes sold at a price that was less than the original asking price.  

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market currently begins at $3,500,000 in Napa County (down from $4,200,000 last month).  There has been a increase of 8% for the number of closings (40) of Luxury Homes (sales price more than $3,500,000) in Napa County for the period 7/1/23 to 6/30/24 compared to 37 closings in the period 7/1/22 to 6/30/23.  There are 94 luxury homes in inventory at the end of June 2024 compared to 88 homes in inventory at the end of June 2023 and 97 last month. There were 8 new Luxury Home sales in June compared to 1 last year and 5 last month.  This creates a 12-month supply of inventory.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 94% of original asking price and the 6 homes that closed last month were on the market for 136 days.

Napa:  Fifty-nine percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 221 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of June in the City of Napa. This is 52% above the supply at the end of June 2023 (145) and it is 8% above the inventory at the end of last month (204).  New sales (55) were 8% below the pace of June 2023 (60) and they were essentially equal to the pace of last month (54).  There is a 4-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 52 closings last month is 67 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in June was $827,000. This is 3% below the median price of the homes closed in June 2023 ($850,000).  

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of June (130) is 7% above the level of 122 in June 2023 and it is 4% above the inventory last month (125).  There were 18 new sales this month compared to 10 a year ago and 19 last month.  There is now a 7.2-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 19 closings last month is 103 days.  Over the past four months, Up Valley homes are selling at roughly 92% of original list price.  Forty-six percent of the Luxury Market inventory (price more than $3,500,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (43 homes). There were 4 luxury home (price more than $3,500,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month and there were 5 new luxury home sales.

Angwin:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Angwin at the end of June (21) compares to 13 in June 2023 and 15 last month.  There was 1 new sale this month compared to 1 a year ago and 1 last month.  The average asking price for the 21 homes on the market in Angwin is $2,639,000.

Mobile Homes in Napa County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of June is 37 homes.  This is 32% above the number of mobile homes available in June 2023 (28) and it is equal to the 37 available homes last month.  There were 21 new mobile home sales in June.  This compares to 12 home sales last June 2023 and 12 sales last month.  There is a 1.8-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 16 mobile homes closed in June is 51 days and the median price was $292,000.  This compares to a median price of $196,000 in June 2023 and $210,000 last month.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of June stands at 329.  This is 15% above the inventory in June 2023 (286) and it is 13% above the inventory last month (291).  New sales (58) in Mendocino County in June were 7% above the pace of June 2023 (54) and they were 5% below the pace last month (61).  There now is a 5.7-month supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 50 homes sold in Mendocino County in June is 106 days.  For our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of sold homes in Mendocino has been between $400,000 and $600,000 over the past year.  The median price of the homes closed in June in was $519,000.  The annualized average price ($580,255) of all homes sold in the County decreased 4% in the past twelve months.  Over the past four months, Mendocino County homes are selling at roughly 91% of original asking price.  In June, 19% of the homes in Mendocino County sold at a price greater than the original asking price.  Thirty-eight percent of the homes showed a price reduction prior to selling and 65% of homes closed at a price less than their original list price.

Marin County:  Marin County is often considered a “feeder” county to our North Bay Wine Country markets.  Marin County’s inventory (432 homes) is 33% above the 325 homes in June 2023 and it is 10% below the 481 homes in inventory last month.  New sales (232) were 3% below the number last June (238) and they were 6% below the pace of last month (246).  There is a 1.9-month supply of inventory at the end of June 2024.  The median price of the 219 homes sold in Marin County in June is $1,570,000.  This is 10% above the median price a year ago ($1,423,000).  Homes sold in an average of 33 days and at 96% of original asking price.