Wine Country and Northbay Real Estate Trends 

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for January 2023

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group and Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Ming Tree enjoyed 44 closings in January 2023 compared to 75 last January and 63 last month.  In January, we closed homes with a total value of $20 million compared to $31 million last year and $32 million last month.  The average selling price of the properties sold by BHGRE|WCG in January was $446,000. 

BHGRE|WCG currently has 73 pending sales with a value of $29 million dollars.  We are 41% behind our pending unit volume last year at this time.  We have 153 active listings with a value of $72 million dollars.  We are 2% behind last year’s in our listing unit volume.  Our average listing price is $471,000.

Congratulations to the following BHGRE|Wine Country Group agents who had one or more closings in the month of January.  Jessica Spencer in Clearlake led all agents with 7 closings.

Jessica Spencer (7), Summer Dahlquist, Cheryl Marinaro (2), Sheila Deignan, Natalie Hill (2), Dave Hughes, Larry Salmon, Kim Brown (2), Carolyn Towon (2), Barbara Cronick (2), Analiese Von Borstel, Cameron Ramos (2), Trudy Ramos (2), Chelsie Runnings, Darla McKenzie, Deborah Melancon, Erick Rothfeld, Jay Hunter (2), Heather Thurber, Rob Ross, Jana Adams, Parmeeta Ghoman, Elizabeth Uribe, Lisa Ladanyl, Liz Manfree, Mara Kahn, Zebi Bojarski, Malachi Herrera (2), Amy Wray, Maria Flores, Natalie Hill (2), Rianne Pasquariello (2), Nancy Calderon, Melanie Zuniga and Taran Pitzer

National Trends

Across the nation, the inventory of homes for sale is low on a year over year basis and it is still declining.  We expect new listings to start coming on the market in the next few weeks to kick-start the Spring market.   Sales volume (pending sales) have picked up.  This keeps us in a “Seller’s Market” for most areas of the country. The appreciation rate for homes is expected to moderate this year and be essentially flat on a nationwide basis.  A decline in values is not expected.  

North Bay Real Estate Trends for January 2023

For all the areas covered by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, there is an inventory of 1,605 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of January.  Inventory is 20% below that of a year ago (2,004) and it is 13% below the inventory last month (1,847).  It is typical for inventory to fall in this range between November and January.  Inventory remains low on a historical basis as, at times, the inventory has exceeded 11,000 homes in the BAREIS region.  There were 721 sales for the month of January.  This number is 23% below a year ago (940) and 8% above the pace of last month (693).  The median price of homes sold across our North Bay region in January was $625,000. 

I have been following a data point I call the “Price Reduction Ratio” (PRR) for the past year, or so.  Across the country, approximately one third of the homes have a selling price lower than the original asking price.  In some of the hottest markets during the pandemic this ratio is exceeding 60% as the markets cool off.  For January 2023, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, our ratios are higher than the national average.  In the region combined, 53% of the homes sold in January had a seling price lower than the asking price.  The numbers were 59% for Napa County, 37% for Sonoma County and 64% for Mendocino County.  Conversely, the ratio of homes selling for more than the original asking price was 10% across the region.  It was 5% in Napa County, 21% in Sonoma County and only 4% in Mendocino County.  I expect that these numbers will move more towards the national average in February.

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of January stands at 402 homes.  This is 35% below the inventory in January 2022 (622) and it is 12% below the inventory last month (456).  Forty-five percent of the available homes for sale in Sonoma County at this time (182) are priced at $1,000,000 or more.  New sales (203) in Sonoma County in January were 31% below the pace of January 2022 (296) and they were 7% below the pace last month (219).  There is a 2-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 33 (Oakmont) to 84 (Healdsburg) days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 62 days.  The median price of the 178 homes closed in January in Sonoma County was $710,000. This is 5% below the median price in January 2022 ($750,000).  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 95% of their original list price.  In January, 21% of the homes in Sonoma County sold at a price more than the original asking price and 37% of the homes had a reduction in price before they sold.

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price more than $1,700,000).  There has been a 26% decrease in the number of Luxury Homes closed (387) from 2/1/22 to 1/31/23 compared to 521 closings in the period 2/1/21 to 1/31/22.  The inventory of luxury homes (102) is 43% below the inventory in January 2022 (179 homes) and it is 14% below the inventory last month (119).  The pace of new sales (12) in January this year is 37% below the pace of a year ago (19) and it is also 37% below the pace last month (19).  There is a slowing of activity in this high quartile sector.  The Days on Market for 8 Luxury Home closings was 98 days this January.  The Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in January was 62.  There is a 8.5-month supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 2-month supply in the overall Sonoma County market.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 92% of original list price. 

Coastal Sonoma:  There are 8 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This compares to 6 homes in inventory in January 2022 and 10 homes last month.  There were no new sales in January compared to 6 a year ago and 5 last month.  The Days on Market for the 4 homes that closed in January is 53 days.  

Oakmont:  There are 17 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of January.  This is 42% above the inventory in January 2022 (12) and it is 11% below the inventory of last month (19).  New sales (14) were equal to the sales pace of a year ago (14) and three times the pace of last month (5).  There is a 1.2-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high $500,000’s up to $849,000.  The median price was $677,000 for the 7 homes that closed in January.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in January is 54 days.  

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of January (43) is 43% below the inventory in January 2022 (75) and it is 17% below the inventory last month (52).  There were 25 new sales for the month.  This is 11% below the sales in January 2022 (28) and it is 9% above the sales pace last month (23).  The Petaluma market currently has 1.7 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 19 homes that closed in January was $884,000.  This is 4% above the median price last January ($850,000).  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in January is 64 days.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of January (16) is 52% below the inventory in January 2022 (33) and it is 30% below the inventory last month (23).  There were 20 new sales in Rohnert Park in January.  This sales pace is 18% above the 17 sales in January 2022 and it is 17% below the sales last month (23).  There is a 0.8-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  This remains a very tight market.  The median price ($640,000) of the 21 homes and condominiums that closed in January is 6% below the median price in January a year ago ($680,000).  Days on Market for the homes that closed in January is 36 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of January in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (28) is 32% below the level of January 2022 (41) and it is 10% below the inventory last month (31).  There were 6 new sales for the month of January.  This 50% below the pace in January 2022 (12) and it is 54% below the pace last month (13).  There is a 4.7-month supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace.  The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $450,000 to $750,000 over the past year.  The median was $575,000 for the 7 homes that closed in January.  The homes that closed in the Russian River in April went from listing to pending in 96 days.

Santa Rosa:  Forty-two percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of January (167) is 20% below the inventory of a year ago (208) and it is 7% below the inventory last month (180).  New sales in January (94) are 32% below the pace of last January (139) and they are 22% ahead of the pace last month (75).  There is a 1.8-month supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 64 homes closed in January in Santa Rosa was $612,000 compared to $705,000 a year ago.  This is a 13% decrease.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in January is 61 days.  

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of January in Sebastopol is 26 homes.  This is 40% below the inventory last January (41) and 7% below the inventory last month (28).  There were 14 new sales for the month of January.  This is 13% below the pace in January 2022 (16) and it is 27% ahead of the pace last month (12).  There is a 1.9-month supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace.  The 10 homes that closed in Sebastopol in January went from listing to pending in 76 days.

Sonoma Valley:  The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (49) at the end of January in the Sonoma Valley is 37% below the inventory last January (78) and it is 8% below the inventory of last month (53).  Sixty-one percent of the available properties in the Sonoma Valley (30) are priced at $1,000,000, or more.  There were 17 new sales for the month. This is 19% below the 21 sales in January 2022 and it is 32% below the 25 sales last month.  There is a 2.9-month supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  The average Days on Market for the 24 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in January is 66 days.  The closings in the month had a selling price equal to 93% of the original listing price.  In January, 4% of the homes in the Sonoma Valley sold at a price more than the original asking price and 50% of the homes showed a price less than the original asking price when they sold.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of January starts at $3,500,000.  Twenty-five homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 29 in the twelve months prior to that.  In January, there was one new sale in this quartile.  There are 12 homes available in this quartile in January 2023 compared to 17 a year ago and 12 last month.  

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of January is 13 properties.  This is 24% below the inventory in January 2022 (17) and it is 28% below the 18 homes in inventory last month.  There were 9 sales in the month.  This is 31% below the pace of sales in January 2022 (11) and it is 36% below the pace of last month (14).  There is a 1.4-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The days on market for the 11 homes that closed in January 2022 in Windsor is 60 days.  The median price ($799,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in April is essentially equal to the median price a year ago ($794,000).

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of January is 45 homes.  This is 6% below the number of mobile homes available in January 2022 (48) and it is one less than the number of available mobile homes last month (46).  There were 30 new mobile home sales in January.  This is 20% ahead of the pace of sales in January 2022 (25) and it is 173% ahead of the pace of sales last month (11).  There is a 1.5-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 11 mobile homes closed in January is 59 days and the median price was $175,000 compared to $187,000 a year ago. 

Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of January (178) is 29% below the inventory in January 2022 (250) and it is 10% below the inventory last month (198).  Sixty-one percent of the inventory in Napa County (108 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above.  New sales (63) are 13% below the pace of last year (72) and are 58% ahead of the 43 sales last month.  There is a 2.8-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the homes closing in Napa County is currently 82 days.  In our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 64 homes closed in January in Napa County ($785,000) is 5% below the median price of a year ago ($825,000).  Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 93% of original list price.  In January, 5% of the homes in Napa County sold at a price that was more than the original asking price and 59% of the homes sold at a price that was less than the original asking price.  

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market currently begins at $2,900,000 in Napa County.  This is down from $3,500,000 last month.  There has been a decrease of 32% for the number of closings (50) of Luxury Homes (sales price more than $2,900,000) in Napa County for the period 2/1/22 to 1/31/23 compared to 73 closings in the period 2/1/21 to 1/31/22.  This continues a trend where we see a decrease in this number of luxury sales.  There are 45 luxury homes in inventory at the end of January 2023 compared to 69 homes in inventory at the end of January 2022 and 59 last month. There were 3 new Luxury Home sales in January compared to 2 last year and 3 last month.  This creates a 15-month supply of inventory.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 94% of original asking price and the one home that closed last month was on the market for 239 days.

American Canyon:  There are 16 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of January in American Canyon. Last year there were just 7 homes in inventory and there were 24 homes in inventory last month.  There were 12 new sales in the month.  This compares to 5 new homes sales last January and 8 new sales last month.  There is a 1.3-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for 4 homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 103 days. The median price of the homes that closed in American Canyon in January ($690,000) compares to a median price of ($673,000) a year ago.  The median price in American Canyon can fluctuate quite a bit from month to month.  The average price per square foot of the homes sold in American Canyon was at $310 last month.  This is consistent with the $300 to $400 per square foot range where the sales have been over the past several years.

Napa:  Forty-four percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 78 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of January in the City of Napa. This is 43% below the supply at the end of January 2022 (137) and it is 3% above the inventory at the end of last month (76).  New sales (43) were 9% below the pace of January 2022 (47) and they were 54% above the pace of last month (30). There is a 1.8-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 31 closings last month is 76 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in January was $785,000. This is 11% below the median price of the homes closed in January 2022 ($884,000).

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of January (69) is 18% below the level of 84 in January 2022 and it is 12% below the inventory last month (78).  There were 6 new sales this month compared to 17 a year ago and 6 last month.  There is now a 5.8-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 4 closings last month is 108 days.  Forty-one percent of the Luxury Market inventory (price more than $2,900,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (28 homes). There were no luxury home (price more than $2,900,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month and there were 2 new luxury home sales.

Angwin:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Angwin at the end of January (6) compares to 8 in January 2022 and 9 last month.  There were no new sales this month compared to 2 a year ago and one last month.  The average asking price for the 6 homes on the market in Angwin is $2,174,000.

Mobile Homes in Napa County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of January is 21 homes.  This is 22% below the number of mobile homes available in January 2022 (27) and it is also 22% below the 27 available homes last month.  There were 13 new mobile home sales in January.  This compares to 12 home sales last January and 9 sales last month.  There is a 1.6-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 9 mobile homes closed in January is 88 days and the median price was $210,000.  This compares to a median price of $210,000 in January 2022 and $208,000 last month.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of January stands at 210.  This is 8% below the inventory in January 2022 (227) and it is 13% below the inventory last month (241).  New sales (36) in Mendocino County in January were slightly above the pace of January 2022 (35) and they were slightly below the pace last month (37).  There now is a 5.8-month supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 28 homes sold in Mendocino County in January is 130 days.  For our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the homes closed in January in Mendocino County was $392,000. This is the lowest median price for any month in the past year.  Generally, the median price of sold homes in Mendocino has been around $$500,000 to $600,000.  Over the past four months, Mendocino County homes are selling at roughly 89% of original asking price.  In January, 4% of the homes in Mendocino County sold at a price greater than the original asking price and 64% of the homes showed a price reduction at the time they sold.

Ukiah:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of January in Ukiah is 48 homes.  This is 12% above the level of January 2022 (42) and it is 8% below the inventory last month (52).  There were 15 new sales for the month of January.  This is 6% below the 16 sales in January 2022 and it is 12% below the 17 sales last month.  There are 3.2 months of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 11 closings last month is 104 days.  The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from $450,000 to $640,000. The median price was $379,000 for the homes that closed in January.  

Redwood Valley and Calpella:  The inventory of homes for sale at the end of January in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 19 homes.  This compares to 10 homes in January 2022 and 25 homes last month.  There were 6 new sales for the month of January.  This compares to 5 sales in January 2022 and 2 new sales last month.  There is a 3.2-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $725,000.  There was one new closing in Redwood Valley/Calpella in January at a median price of $640,000 and the homes sold in 154 days. 

Hopland and Talmage:  The inventory of homes for sale at the end of January in Hopland and Talmage is 5 homes.  This compares to 10 homes in inventory at the end of January 2022 and 9 homes in inventory last month.  There was one new sale in the month of January.  This compares to one sale in January 2022 and one new sale last month.  There were two closings in this area last month.

Lake County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Lake County at the end of January stands at 351.  Approximately 32% of the inventory (114 homes) is in the communities of Clearlake and another 12% (42 homes) are in Lakeport.  The countywide inventory is 13% above the inventory in January 2022 (310) and it is 2% below the inventory last month (357). Closed sales (51) in Lake County in January were 39% below the pace of January 2022 (83) and they were 32% below the pace last month (75).  There now is a 4.3-month supply of inventory in Lake County based on the existing sales pace.  The median Days on Market for the homes sold in Lake County in January is 43 days. Usually “Days on Market” are traced from listing date to pending date, so the closing date would be somewhat longer.  The median price of the homes closed in January in Lake County was $295,000. This is 11% below the median price in January 2022 ($330,000) and it is equal to the median price last month ($295,000).  The homes sold in Lake County last month sold at 95% of original list price.

Marin County:  Marin County is often considered a “feeder” county to our North Bay Wine Country markets.  Marin County’s inventory (211 homes) is 46% below the 391 homes in January 2022 and it is 4% below the 220 homes in inventory last month.  New sales (99) were 21% below the number last January (125) and were 29% above the pace of last month (77).  This creates a 2.1-month supply.  The median price of the 63 homes sold in Marin County in January is $1,025,000.  This is 21% below the median price a year ago ($1,300,000) and the lowest median price in the past twelve months.