Wine Country and Northbay Real Estate Trends

Best Real Estate Company in Sonoma County – Press Democrat Readers Poll 2022

We just heard that we received the recognition of Best Real Estate Company in Sonoma County in the 2022 Press Democrat’s Readers Poll. Congratulations to our agents and staff and thanks to our many clients and friends who voted for us.

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for May 2022

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group and Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Ming Tree enjoyed 77 closings in May 2022 compared to 51 last May and 81 last month.  In May, we closed homes with a total value of $39 million compared to $38 million last year and $38 million last month.  The average selling price of the properties sold by BHGRE|WCG in May was $509,000. 

BHGRE|WCG currently has 131 pending sales with a value of $46 million dollars.  We are 41% ahead of our pending unit volume last year.  We have 164 active listings with a value of $106 million dollars.  We are 228% ahead of last year in our listing unit volume.  Our average listing price is $646,000.

Congratulations to the following BHGRE|Wine Country Group agents who had one or more closings in the month of May. We will be adding the Ming Tree agents with closings next month.

North Bay Real Estate Trends for May 2022

For all of the areas covered by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, there is an inventory of 2,045 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of May.  Inventory is 13% above that of a year ago (1,804) and it is 21% above the inventory last month (1,686).  This continues the trend from last month where inventory in a current month has exceeded inventory one year prior.  This indicates a shift in the market.  At times, the inventory has exceeded 10,000 homes in the BAREIS region.  Despite the pick-up in May, inventory remains very low on a historical basis.  There were 1,529 sales for the month of May.  This number is 14% below a year ago (1,783) and 3% above the pace of last month (1,487).  Sales gains are a little flatter than they are in a typical spring market.

I have been following a data point I call the “Price Reduction Ratio” (PRR) for the past year, or so.  Across the country, on average, one might expect that 30 to 35% of the homes put into the MLS will have a price reduction before they eventually sell.  Currently, for the entire country, the ratio is a relatively low 25%.  This is an increase from 19% last month.  In our region, the ratio is lower.  For May 2022, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, the range was from 10% (Sonoma County) to 26% (Mendocino County).  Conversely, the ratio of homes selling in excess of Original List Price (OLP) ranged from 32% (Mendocino County) to 72% (Sonoma County).  The ratios were 13% and 61% respectively in Napa County.  Though our ratios are lower, the trend is consistent as we are seeing an increase in homes selling with price reductions.

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of May stands at 564 homes.  This is 24% below the inventory in May 2021 (740) and it is 20% above the inventory last month (470).  New sales (527) in Sonoma County in May were 22% below the pace of May 2021 (676) and they were 13% above the pace last month (491).  There is a 1.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 20 (Petaluma) to 92 (Coastal Sonoma) days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 29 days.  The median price of the 422 homes closed in May in Sonoma County was $820,000. This is 10% above the median price in May 2021 ($745,000).  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 104% of their original list price.  Homes sold for 104% of original list price in Sonoma County last month.  In May, 72% of the homes in Sonoma County sold at a price in excess of the original list price and 10% of the homes had a reduction in price before they sold.

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $2,300,000).  There has been a 15% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (290) from 6/1/21 to 5/31/22 compared to 252 closings in the period 6/1/20 to 5/31/21.  The inventory of luxury homes (139) is 5% below the inventory in May 2021 (146 homes) and it is 23% above the inventory last month (113).  The pace of new sales (19) in May this year is 37% below the pace of a year ago (30) and it is also 37% below the pace last month (30).  There seems to be a slowing of activity in this high quartile sector.  The Days on Market for 23 Luxury Home closings was 62 days this May compared to 51 days a year ago. This compares to 29 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in May.  There is a 7.3 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 1.1 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 100% of original list price.

Coastal Sonoma:  There are 5 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This compares to 6 homes in inventory in May 2021 and 10 homes last month.  There were 7 new sales in May compared to 5 a year ago and 1 last month.  There is now a just a 0.7 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 2 homes that closed in May is just 11 days.  Last month was hot on the coast for sales.

Oakmont:  Inventory picked up to 20 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of May.  This is 66% below the inventory in May 2021 (58) and it is 100% above the inventory of last month (10).  New sales (23) were 44% below the sales pace of a year ago (41) and 21% above the pace of last month (19).  Despite starting the month with ten homes in inventory, 23 homes sold in May.  There is a 0.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high $500,000’s up to $810,000.  The median price was $700,000 for the 15 homes that closed in May.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in May is 17 days. 

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of May (49) is equal to the inventory in May 2021 (49) and it is 17% above the inventory last month (42).  There were 64 new sales for the month.  This is 20% below the sales in May 2021 (80) and it is also 14% above the sales pace last month (56).  The Petaluma market currently has 1.1 months supply of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 67 homes that closed in May was $989,000.  This is 16% above the median price last May ($850,000). The Days on Market for the homes that closed in May is 25 days.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of May (25) is 47% above the inventory in May 2021 (17) and it is 39% ahead of the inventory last month (18).  There were 48 new sales in Rohnert Park in May.  This sales pace is 37% ahead of the 35 sales in May 2021 and it is 20% above the sales last month (40).  This is the twenty-fourth month in a row where sales were in excess of the inventory at the beginning of the month in Rohnert Park.  In May, the month started with 18 available properties and there were 48 sales in the month.  There is a 0.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  This remains a very tight market.  The median price ($613,000) of the 42 homes and condominiums that closed in May is 6% below the median price in May a year ago ($653,000).  Days on Market for the homes that closed in May is 23 days.

Santa Rosa:  Thirty-seven percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of May (171) is 44% below the inventory of a year ago (304) and it is 20% above the inventory last month (142).  New sales in May (208) are 23% below the pace of last May (270) and they are 12% above the pace last month (185).  There is a 1.0 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 165 homes closed in May in Santa Rosa was $775,000 compared to $675,000 a year ago.  This is a 15% increase and sets a record high median price for sold homes in Santa Rosa.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in May is 31 days.  

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of May in Sebastopol jumped 51% to 53 homes at the end of May compared to 35 last month and 37 a year ago.  There were 32 new sales for the month of May.  This is 24% below the pace in May 2021 (42) and it is 52% above the pace last month (21).  There is a 2.4 months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace.  The 22 homes that closed in Sebastopol in May went from listing to pending in 219 days.

Sonoma Valley:  The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (84) at the end of May in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 27% below the inventory last May (115) and it is 6% above the inventory of last month (79).  Seventy-four percent of the available properties in the Sonoma Valley (62) are priced at $1,000,000, or more. There were 51 new sales for the month. This is 31% below the 74 sales in May 2021 and it is 21% above the 42 sales last month.  There is a 2.1 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  The average Days on Market for the 40 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in May is 42 days.  The closings in the month had a selling price equal to 99% of the original listing price.  In May, 50% of the homes in the Sonoma Valley sold at a price in excess of the original list price and 18% of the homes had a reduction in price before they sold.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of May starts at $4,500,000 (up from $3,750,000 last month).  Fifteen homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 21 in the twelve months prior to that.  In May, there were two new sales in this quartile.  There are 21 homes available in this quartile in May 2022 compared to 14 a year ago and 16 last month. Based on the current sales pace, the months of inventory is 10.5 months.  The days on market for the one home that closed in May in this quartile is 35 days.

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of May is 32 homes.  This is 36% below the number of mobile homes available in May 2021 (50) and it is 39% above the number of available mobile homes last month (23).  There were 27 new mobile home sales in May.  This is 13% below the pace of sales in May 2021 (31) and it is 17% above the pace of sales last month (23).  There is a 1.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 16 mobile homes closed in May is 45 days and the median price was $227,000.  This median price is 30% ahead of the median price of $175,000 in May 2021 and it is the highest median price for mobile home sales we have recorded for any month. 

Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of May (208) is 21% below the inventory in May 2021 (262) and it is slightly below the inventory last month (211).  Seventy-five percent of the inventory in Napa County (157 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above.   New sales (133) are 16% below the pace of last year (159) and are 7% above the 124 sales last month.  There is a 1.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the homes closing in Napa County is currently 40 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the108 homes closed in May in Napa County ($953,000) is 20% above the median price of a year ago ($793,000).  Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 101% of original list price.  In May, 61% of the homes in Napa County sold at a price in excess of the original list price and 13% of the homes had a reduction in price before they sold.

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $4,750,000 in Napa County at this time.  There has been a decrease of 22% for the number of closings (39) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $4,750,000) in Napa County for the period 6/1/21 to 5/31/22 compared to 50 closings in the period 6/1/20 to 5/31/21.  This continues last month’s trend where we see a decrease in this number.  There are 54 luxury homes in inventory at the end of May 2022 compared to 49 homes in inventory at the end of May 2021 and 49 last month. There were 5 new Luxury Home sales in May compared to 3 last year and 7 last month.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 95% of original list price.

American Canyon:  There are just 6 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of May in American Canyon. Last year at this time there were 5 homes in inventory and there were 12 homes in inventory last month.  There were 12 new sales in the month.  This compares to 9 new homes sales last May and 8 new sales last month.  There is a 0.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for 8 homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 34 days. The median price of the homes that closed in American Canyon in May ($813,000) is 14% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($713,000).  The average price per square foot of the homes sold in American Canyon was at $352 last month.  This is in line with the $300 to $400 per square foot range where the sales have been over the past several years.

Napa:  Forty-seven percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 98 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of May in the City of Napa. This is 31% below the supply at the end of May 2021 (141) and it is 5% above the inventory at the end of last month (93).  New sales (89) were 26% below the pace of May 2021 (120) and they were 9% below the pace of last month (99). There is a 1.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 81 closings last month is 37 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in May was $926,000. This is 14% above the median price of the homes closed in May 2021 ($815,000).

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of May (89) is 12% below the level of 101 in May 2021 and it is 5% above the inventory last month (85).  There were 25 new sales this month compared to 23 a year ago and 16 last month.  There is now a 3.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 17 closings last month is 43 days.  Fifty-nine percent of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $4,750,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (32 homes). There was one luxury home (price in excess of $4,750,000) closing in the Up Valley Market last month and there were three new luxury home sales.  

Mobile Homes in Napa County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of May is just 6 homes.  This is 72% below the number of mobile homes available in May 2021 (22) and it is 50% below the 12 available homes last month.  There were 14 new mobile home sales in May.  This compares to 15 home sales last May and 14 sales last month.  There is a 0.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace making this a very tight market. The average days on market of the 19 mobile homes closed in May is 88 days and the median price was $202,000.  This compares to a median price of $309,000 in May 2021 and $215,000 last month.  The median price of sold mobile homes in Napa seems to vary quite a bit from month to month.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of May stands at 288.  This is 104% above the inventory in May 2021 (141) and it is 17% above the inventory last month (246).  New sales (71) in Mendocino County in May were 8% above the pace of May 2021 (61) and they were 7% below the pace last month (71).  There now is a 4.4 months supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 63 homes sold in Mendocino County in May is 60 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the homes closed in May in Mendocino County was $589,000. This is 2% above the median price in May 2021 ($576,000).  In May, 32% of the homes in Mendocino County sold at a price in excess of the original list price and 26% of the homes had a reduction in price before they sold.

Ukiah:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of May in Ukiah is 57 homes.  This is 90% above the level of May 2021 (30) and it is 24% above the inventory last month (46).  There were 24 new sales for the month of May.  This is 50% above the number of sales in May 2021 (16) and it is 9% ab0ve the sales last month (22).  There is 2.4 months of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 21 closings last month is 52 days.  The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from $370,000 to $543,000. The median price was $580,000 for the homes that closed in May.  This is the highest median price that we’ve ever recorded in Ukiah for a single month.

Hopland and Talmage:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of May in Hopland and Talmage is 13 homes.  This compares to 9 homes in inventory at the end of May 2021 and 7 homes in inventory last month.  There were 2 new sales for the month of May.  This compares to 4 sales in May 2021 and 3 new sales last month.  There were no closings in the Talmage-Hopland market last month.

Redwood Valley and Calpella:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of May in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 31 homes.  This is the highest that we’ve ever seen in this area and compares to 18 homes in May 2021 and 29 homes last month.  There were 7 new sales for the month of May.  This compares to 3 sales in May 2021 and 9 new sales last month.  There is a 4.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $725,000.  There were 9 closings in Redwood Valley/Calpella in May at a median price of $675,000 and the homes sold in 53 days. 

Lake County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Lake County at the end of May stands at 468.  Approximately 30% of the inventory (114 homes) is in the communities of Clearlake.  The countywide inventory is 67% above the inventory in May 2021 (281) and it is 28% above the inventory last month (367). Closed sales (115) in Lake County in May were 10% above the pace of May 2021 (105) and they were slightly above the pace last month (113).  There now is a 5.1 months supply of inventory in Lake County based on the existing sales pace.  The median Days on Market for the homes sold in Lake County in May is 21 days.  Usually “Days on Market” are traced from listing date to pending date, so the closing date would be somewhat longer.  The median price of the homes closed in May in Lake County was $339,000. This is 6% below the median price in May 2021 ($359,000) and 10% above the median price last month ($307,000).  The homes sold in Lake County last month sold at 97.6% of original list price.

Marin County:  Marin County is often considered a “feeder” county to our North Bay Wine Country markets.  Marin County’s inventory (264 homes) is 7% below the 284 homes in May 2021 and it is 24% above the 213 homes in inventory last month.  New sales (290) were 12% below the number last May (331) and were 2% above the pace of last month (285).  This creates a 0.9 months supply.  The median price of the 268 homes sold in Marin County in May is $1,655,000.  This is 19% above the median price a year ago ($1,391,000).