Wine Country Real Estate Trends in July 2021

Year Over Year Comparisons

In mid-March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic was declared and all parties were told to “Shelter in Place”.  This basically shut down the residential real estate industry through the month of April 2020.  The market then accelerated rapidly in May through October.  Year over year statistical comparisons are therefore going to be skewed by these market aberrations created last year.  The closings of this year are more “normalized” than the closings of July 2020 so it will look like a “slow down” in an otherwise healthy market.

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for July 2021 

We are pleased to announce the merger of our brokerage with Coldwell Banker Town and Country in Lake County.  We bring three new offices and 22 agents into the BHGRE|Wine Country Group family.  Please see the attached link for the full story:  Press Release.

I will be introducing a section on the blog on Lake County communities next month.

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group enjoyed 69 closings in July 2021 compared to 59 last July and 57 last month.  In July, we closed homes with a total value of $49 million compared to $46 million last year and $38 million last month.  The average selling price of the properties sold by BHGRE|WCG in July was $716,842.   

BHGRE|WCG currently has 65 pending sales with a value of $46 million dollars.  We are 42% behind the volume last year (remember that Covid-19 was affecting our markets last year at this time).  We have 39 active listings with a value of $36 million dollars.  Our average listing price is $923,000.  This is 3% below last year’s average. 

Congratulations to the following agents who had closings in the month of July:

Liz Uribe (6); Sheila Deignan (6); Mari Giblin (5); Parmeeta Ghoman (4); Heather Thurber (3); Laurie Parris (3); Chelsie Runnings (3); Deborah Melancon (3); David Barker (2); Liz Manfree (2); Martha Saly (2); Mara Kahn; Zebi Borjarski; Dan Gallagher; Team Ramos; Daniel Galvin; Linda Alioto; Amy Wray; Ryan Gourd; Rianne Pasquariello; Jill Rake; Del Nordby; Marie Martin; Mireya Nelson; Isaac Raboy; Kaity Medina and Mary Jenson. 

North Bay Real Estate Trends for July 2021

For all of the areas covered by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Lake, Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, there is an inventory of 2,007 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of July.  Inventory is 21% below that of a year ago (2,541) and it is 7% ahead of the inventory last month (1,871).  At times, the inventory has exceeded 10,000 homes in the BAREIS region.  There were 1,794 sales for the month of July.  This number is 11% below a year ago (2,013) and 5% below the pace of last month (1,882).

Prices normally peak in July and stay level through January.  National forecasts predict increasing inventory and a slowing of price appreciation in the coming months and into 2022. This seems to be happening across Wine Country and we’ll see if this is a seasonal trend (the end of summer market) or a longer term direction. 

I have been following a data point I call the “Price Reduction Ratio” for the past six months, or so.  Across the country, one might expect that 20 to 25% of the homes put into the MLS will have a price reduction before they eventually sell.  For July 2021, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, the range was from 16% (Sonoma County) to 21% (Napa County).  Conversely, the ratio of homes selling in excess of Original List Price ranged from 60% (Sonoma County) to 45% (Mendocino County).  It was 52% in Napa County.  The average Price Reduction Ratio for all areas has gone from 29% in September 2020 to 19% in July of 2021 while the sales of homes in excess of Original List Price went from 33% to 52% over the same period.

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of July stands at 761.  This is 11% below the inventory in July 2020 (858) and it is 1% above the inventory last month (753).  New sales (678) in Sonoma County in July were 2% ahead of the pace of July 2020 (667) and they were 1% higher than the pace last month (668).  There is a 1.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 31 (Petaluma) to 59 (Petaluma) days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 40 days.  The median price of the 629 homes closed in July in Sonoma County was $739,000. This is 7% above the median price in July 2020 ($690,000).  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 101.5% of their original list price.  

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,800,000).  There has been a 125% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (401) from 8/1/20 to 7/31/21 compared to 34 closings in the period 8/1/19 to 7/31/20.  The inventory of luxury homes (178) is 25% ahead of the inventory in July 2020 (151 homes).  The pace of new sales (47) in July this year is 9% above the pace of a year ago (43) and it is 24% above the pace last month (38).  The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 43 days this July compared to 87 days a year ago. This compares to 40 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in July.  There is a 4 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a one months supply in the overall Sonoma County market.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 99.5% of original list price.

Cloverdale:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (39) in Cloverdale at the end of July is equal to the inventory in July 2020 (39) and it is slightly above the inventory of last month (38).  There were 19 new sales in Cloverdale in July.  This compares to 15 sales in July 2020 and 12 new sales last month.  There is a 2.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 19 homes that closed in July was 59 days.

Coastal Sonoma:  There are 10 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This compares to 10 homes in inventory in July 2020 and 8 homes last month.  There were 4 new sales in July compared to 10 a year ago and 5 last month.  There is now a 2.5 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 7 homes that closed in July was 34 days.  The coastal area market may be easing a bit from the very tight market it has been over the past twelve months.

Healdsburg Trends:  There are 92 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month.  This is equal to the inventory in July 2020 (92) and it is 15% ahead of the inventory last month (80).  New sales in July (24) were 25% below the pace of sales in July 2020 (32) and they were 36% below the sales pace last month (37).  The months of available inventory was 3.8 months at the end of July based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 30 homes that closed in July was 52 days.  

Oakmont:  There are 55 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of July.  This is 4% below the inventory in July 2020 (57) and it is 6% above the inventory of last month (52).  New sales (32) were 23% above the sales pace of a year ago (26) and equal to the pace of last month (30).  There is a 1.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high $500,000’s up to $800,000.  The median price was $610,000 for the 27 homes that closed in July.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in July was 58 days.  

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of July (51) is 12% below the inventory in July 2020 (58) and it is slightly above the inventory last month (50).  There were 71 new sales for the month.  This is 34% above the sales in July 2020 (53) and it is 6% above the sales pace last month (67).  This is the ninth month in a row where new sales have been higher than the existing inventory going into the month.  The Petaluma market currently has 0.7 months supply of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 66 homes that closed in July was $790,000. This is 6% ahead of the median price last July ($745,000).  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in July was 31 days.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of July (35) is 17% above the inventory in July 2020 (30) and it is 6% above the inventory last month (33).  There were 70 new sales in Rohnert Park in July.  This sales pace is 52% ahead of the 46 sales in July 2020 and it is 43% ahead of the sales last month (49).  Seventy homes is the most ever sold in any month in Rohnert Park since we have kept records.  This is also the fourteenth month in a row where sales were in excess of the inventory at the beginning of the month.  In July, the month started with 33 available properties and there were 70 sales in the month.  There is a 0.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  This is the tightest market in Wine Country.  The median price ($645,000) of the 47 homes and condominiums that closed in July is 7% ahead of the median price in July a year ago ($605,000).  Days on Market for the homes that closed in July is 33 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of July in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (55) is 53% above the level of July 2020 (36) and it is 20% above the inventory last month (46).  There were 39 new sales for the month of July.  This is 9% below the pace in July 2020 (43) and it is 24% below the pace last month (51).  There is a 1.4 months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace.  The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $400,000 to $600,000 over the past year.  The median was $600,000 for the 45 homes that closed in July.  The homes that closed in the Russian River in July went from listing to pending in 36 days.

Santa Rosa:  Thirty-seven percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of July (278) is 25% below the inventory of a year ago (369) and it is 3% below the inventory last month (286).  New sales in July (284) are 10% above the pace of last July (259) and they are slightly below the pace last month (288).  There is a 1.0 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 264 homes closed in July in Santa Rosa was $690,000 compared to $635,000 a year ago.  This is a 9% increase.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in July was 45 days.  

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of July in Sebastopol (44) is 16% ahead of the level of July 2020 (38) and it is 22% ahead of the inventory last month (36).  There were 30 new sales for the month of July.  This is 21% below the pace in July 2020 (38) and it is 17% below the pace last month (36).  There is a 1.5 months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace.  The 26 homes that closed in Sebastopol in July went from listing to pending in 36 days.

Sonoma Valley:  The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (107) at the end of July in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 6% below the inventory last July (113) and it is 10% below the inventory of last month (119).   Sixty-nine percent of the available properties in the Sonoma Valley (74) are priced at $1,000,000, or more. There were 71 new sales for the month. This is 16% below the 84 sales in July 2020 and it is 25% above the 57 sales last month.  There is a 1.5 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  The average Days on Market for the 64 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in July is 36 days.  The closings in the month had a selling price equal to 100% of the original listing price.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of July starts at $3,500,000.  Thirty-nine homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 12 in the twelve months prior to that.  In July, there were 5 new sales in this quartile.  There are 28 homes available in this quartile in July 2021 compared to 21 a year ago and 33 last month. Based on the current sales pace, the months of inventory is 5.6 months.  The average days on market for the 4 homes that closed in July in this quartile was 49 days.

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of July equals 21 properties.  This is 40% below the inventory in July 2020 (38) and it is 32% below the 34 homes last month.  There were 39 new sales for the month.  This is 19% below the pace of sales in July 2020 (48) and it is equal to the pace of last month (39).  There is a 0.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The days on market for the 39 homes that closed in July 2020 in Windsor was 32 days.  The median price ($743,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in July is 8% above the median price a year ago ($688,000).

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of July was 58 homes.  This is 45% below the number of mobile homes available in July 2020 (105) and it is 5% below the number of available mobile homes last month (61).  There were 39 new mobile home sales in July.  This is 8% above the pace of sales in July 2020 (36) and it is also slightly below the pace of sales last month (40).  There is a 1.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 30 mobile homes closed in July was 67 days and the median price was $186,000.  This median price is 13% above the median price of $165,000 in July 2020.  

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of July is 322 properties. The current inventory is 17% below the number of lots in July 2020 (367) and it is essentially equal to the number of available lots last month (321). There were 45 new lot sales in July.  This is 32% below the pace of sales in July 2020 (66) and it is 18% above the pace of lot sales last month (38).  There is a 7.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 27 lots closed in July was 121 days and the median price was $310,000.  

Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of July (267) is 24% below the inventory in July 2020 (351) and it is 5% ahead of the inventory last month (255).  Sixty-four percent of the inventory in Napa County (171 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above.   New sales (150) are 14% below the pace of last year (175) and are 4% below the 156 sales last month.  There is a 1.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 55 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 126 homes closed in July in Napa County ($883,000) is 16% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($760,000).  Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 96% of original list price.

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $3.750,000 in Napa County at this time.  There has been an increase of 100% for the number of closings (68) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $3,750,000) in Napa County for the period 8/1/20 to 7/31/21 compared to 34 closings in the period 8/1/19 to 7/31/20.  There are 68 luxury homes in inventory at the end of July 2021 compared to 78 homes in inventory at the end of July 2020. There were 7 new Luxury Home sales in July compared to 11 last year and 6 last month.  This results in a 9.7 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to a 1.8 months supply for the County as a whole.  Days on market for the 6 luxury homes closings in July was 177 days.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 89% of original list price.

American Canyon:  There are 12 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of July in American Canyon. This is 50% above the inventory a year ago (8) and it is 71% above the supply last month (7).  There were 16 new sales in the month.  This is 24% below the pace of last year (21) and 78% above the 9 sales last month.  There is a 0.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. American Canyon remains the tightest market in Wine Country.  The Days on Market for 5 homes that closed in American Canyon last month was just 20 days. The median price of the homes that closed in American Canyon in July ($704,000) was 12% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($630,000).  The average price per square foot of the homes sold in American Canyon was at $365 last month, This is above the $275 to $300 range where the sales have been over the past several years.

Napa:  Forty-eight percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 128 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of July in the City of Napa. This is 31% below the supply at the end of July 2020 (186) and it is 3% above the inventory at the end of last month (124).  New sales (99) were 15% below the pace of July 2020 (116) and they were 21% below the pace of last month (125). There is a 1.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 103 closings last month was 48 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in July was $841,000. This is 16% ahead of the median price of the homes closed in July 2020 ($725,000).

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of July (109) is 22% below the level of 139 in July 2020 and it is equal to the inventory last month (110).  There were 29 new sales this month compared to 34 a year ago and 17 last month.  There is now a 3.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 15 closings last month was 108 days.  Approximately 62% of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $3,750,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (42 homes). There were three luxury home (price in excess of $3,750,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month and there were five new luxury home sales.  That makes a 8.4 month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.

In Angwin in July, inventory was 20 homes compared to 11 a year ago and 18 last month.  There were 4 new sales in Angwin for the month equal to 4 a year ago and down from 5 last month.

Mobile Homes in Napa County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of July is 26 homes.  This is 24% below the number of mobile homes available in July 2020 (34) and it is slightly below the 27 available homes last month.  There were 20 new mobile home sales in July.  This is 43% above the pace of sales in July 2020 (14) and it is 150% ahead of the pace of sales last month (8).  There is a 1.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The average days on market of the 7 mobile homes closed in July was 48 days and the median price was $213,000.  This compares to a median price of $240,000 in July 2020 and $155,000.  The median price of sold mobile homes in Napa seems to vary quite a bit from month to month.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of July stands at 156.  This is 8% below the inventory in July 2020 (170) and it is 8% above the inventory last month (145).  New sales (63) in Mendocino County in July were 28% below the pace of July 2020 (87) and they were 16% below the pace last month (75).  There now is a 2.5 months supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 52 homes sold in Mendocino County in July is 45 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the homes closed in July in Mendocino County was $650,000. This is 35% ahead of the median price in July 2020 ($481,000).  This is the highest median price for sold homes in Mendocino County for any month on record.  Mendocino County homes are in high demand with prices rising quickly.

Ukiah:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of July in Ukiah is 30 homes.  This is 12% below the level of July 2020 (34) and it is 15% above the inventory last month (26).  There were 20 new sales for the month of July.  This is 9% below the number of sales in July 2020 (22) and it is 17% below the sales last month (24).  There is now a 1.5 months of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 15 closings last month is 39 days.  The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from $370,000 to $505,000. The median price was $519,000 for the homes that closed in July.

Hopland and Talmage:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of July in Hopland and Talmage is 5 homes.  This compares to 13 homes in inventory at the end of July 2020 and 3 homes in inventory last month.  There were 2 new sales for the month of July.  This compares to 2 sales in July 2020 and 4 new sales last month.  There were 3 closings in the Talmage-Hopland market last month with an average days on market of 33 days.

Redwood Valley and Calpella:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of July in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 12 homes.  This is 14% below the level of July 2020 (14) and it is also 14% below the inventory last month (14).  There were 4 new sales for the month of July.  This compares to 8 sales in July 2020 and 7 new sales last month.  There is a 3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $655,000.  There were 4 closings in Redwood Valley/Calpella in July at a median price of $725,000 and the homes sold in 56 days. 

Marin County:  Marin is often considered a “feeder” county to Wine Country.  Marin County’s inventory (300 homes) is 19% below the 372 homes in July 2020 and it is slightly above the 289 homes in inventory last month.  New sales (288) were 19% below the number last July (357) and were 16% below the pace of last month (342).  This creates a 1 months supply.  The median price of the 305 homes sold in Marin County in July was $1,500,000.  This is 11% ahead of the median price a year ago ($1,351,000).