Wine Country Real Estate Trends in June 2021

Year Over Year Comparisons

In mid-March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic was declared and all parties were told to “Shelter in Place”.  This basically shut down the residential real estate industry through the month of April 2020.  The market then accelerated rapidly in May through October.  Year over year statistical comparisons are therefore going to be skewed by these market aberrations created last year.  

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for June 2021 

We are very proud that our Brokerage was selected as the “Best Real Estate Company” in the recent Santa Rosa Press Democrats’ reader’s poll.  Thank you to our clients and friends for supporting us and we will work to earn the award again next year!

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group enjoyed 51 closings in June 2021 compared to 20 last June and 69 last month.  In June, we closed homes with a total value of $38 million compared to $9 million last year and $41 million last month.  The average selling price of the properties sold by BHGRE|WCG in June was $738,607.   

BHGRE|WCG currently has 85 pending sales with a value of $62 million dollars.  We are 15% ahead of our volume last year (remember that Covid-19 was affecting our markets last year at this time).  We have 50 active listings with a value of $46 million dollars.  Our average listing price is $920,000.  This is 17% above last year’s average. 

Congratulations to the following agents who had closings in the month of June:

Rianne Pasquariello (6); David Barker (3); Liz Uribe (3); Liz Manfree (3); Sheila Deignan (2); Martha Saly (2); Leo Merle (2); Kendra Martin (2); Mara Kahn (2); Zebi Borjarski(2); Dan Gallagher (2); Team Ramos (2); Daniel Galvin(2); Linda Alioto; Mari Giblin; Heather Thurber; Parmeeta Ghoman; Laurie Parris; Mari Johnson; Brian Shea; Melinda Scalese; Barbara Cronick; Jennifer Carollo; Pam Atchison; Monica Kangas; Michael Crain; Sylvia Schagerer; Terry Bell; Carolyn Towon; Chelsie Runnings and Tish Thames. 

Our Top Producers for the 2^nd Quarter of 2021 were:

Petaluma:  Parmeeta Ghoman – Units, Dollar Volume and Listings

Santa Rosa:  Mari Giblin – Units and Listings;  Heather Thurber – Dollar Volume

Sebastopol:  Liz Uribe – Units;  Laurie Parris – Dollar Volume and Listings

Sonoma:  Sheila Deignan – Units, Dollar Volume and Listings

St. Helena:  Rianne Pasquariello – Units, Dollar Volume and Listings

Ukiah:  Team Ramos – Units, Dollar Volume and Listings

North Bay Real Estate Trends for June 2021

For all of the areas covered by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Lake, Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, there is an inventory of 1,871 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of June.  Inventory is 35% below that of a year ago (2,892) and it is 4% ahead of the inventory last month (1,804).  At times, the inventory has exceeded 10,000 homes in the BAREIS region.  There were 1,991 sales for the month of June.  This number is 5% below a year ago (2,096) and 5% ahead of the pace of last month (1,893).

On a national basis – there were 373,000 homes for sale at the end of June compared to 976,000 a year ago.  A “healthy/balanced” market might have 1,000,000 homes and a “buyers’ market” would require about 1,500,000 available homes.  Of all new listings, 25% sell “immediately” and 75% last a week or two.  Of major concern is where the seller is intending to go and are they prepared for a quick sale.  Prices normally peak in July and stay level through January.  National forecasts predict increasing inventory and a slowing of price appreciation in the coming months and into 2022. We’ll see if this happens in Wine Country.  

I have been following a data point I call the “Price Reduction Ratio” for the past six months, or so.  Across the country, one might expect that 20 to 25% of the homes put into the MLS will have a price reduction before they eventually sell.  For June 2021, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, the range was from 11% (Mendocino County) to 18% (Napa County).  Conversely, the ratio of homes selling in excess of Original List Price ranged from 54% (Mendocino) to 60% (Sonoma County).  It was 56% in Napa County.  The average Price Reduction Ratio for all areas has gone from 29% in September 2020 to 14% in June of 2021 while the sales of homes in excess of Original List Price went from 33% to 57% over the same period.

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of June stands at 753.  This is 22% below the inventory in June 2020 (967) and it is 2% above the inventory last month (740).  Forty-four percent of the inventory in Sonoma County (334 homes) is priced in excess of $1,000,000 at the end of June 2021.  New sales (722) in Sonoma County in June were 6% ahead of the pace of June 2020 (681) and they were slightly higher than the pace last month (714).  There is a one months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 22 (Coastal Sonoma) to 74 (Oakmont) days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 40 days.  The median price of the 705 homes closed in June in Sonoma County was $775,000. This is 15% above the median price in June 2020 ($675,000).  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 101% of their original list price.  

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,900,000).  There has been a 173% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (396) from 7/1/20 to 6/30/21 compared to 145 closings in the period 7/1/19 to 6/30/20.  The inventory of luxury homes (185) is 36% ahead of the inventory in June 2020 (136 homes).  The pace of new sales (40) in June this year is 13% below the pace of a year ago (46) and it is 15% below the pace last month (47).  The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 52 days this June compared to 71 days a year ago. This compares to 40 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in June.  There is a 4.6 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a one months supply in the overall Sonoma County market.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 98% of original list price.

Cloverdale:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (38) in Cloverdale at the end of June is equal to the inventory in June 2020 (38) and it is 31% above the inventory of last month (29).  There were 18 new sales in Cloverdale in June.  This compares to 18 sales in June 2020 and 30 new sales last month.  There is a 2.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 25 homes that closed in June was 29 days.

Coastal Sonoma:  There are 8 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This compares to 16 homes in inventory in June 2020 and 6 homes last month.  There were 5 new sales in June compared to 10 a year ago and 5 last month.  There is now a 1.6 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 5 homes that closed in June was just 22 days.  The coastal area continues to be a favored destination with a very tight real estate market.

Healdsburg Trends:  There are 80 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month.  This is 13% below the inventory in June 2020 (92) and it is 3% ahead of the inventory last month (78).  New sales in June (39) were 15% ahead of the pace of sales in June 2020 (34) and they were 11% below the sales pace last month (44).  The months of available inventory was 2.1 months at the end of June based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 39 homes that closed in June was 55 days.  

Oakmont:  There are 52 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of June.  This is 22% below the inventory in June 2020 (67) and it is 10% below the inventory of last month (58).  New sales (33) were 65% above the sales pace of a year ago (20) and 20% below the pace of last month (41).  There is a 1.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high $500,000’s up to $800,000.  The median price was $645,000 for the 38 homes that closed in June.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in June was 74 days.  

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of June (50) is 18% below the inventory in June 2020 (61) and it is slightly above the inventory last month (49).  There were 70 new sales for the month.  This is 13% below the sales in June 2020 (80) and it is 19% below the sales pace last month (86).  This is the eigth month in a row where new sales have been higher than the existing inventory going into the month.  The Petaluma market currently has 0.7 months supply of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 73 homes that closed in June was $895,000.  This is 17% ahead of the median price last June ($766,000).  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in June was 25 days compared to 53 days a year ago.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of June (33) is 25% below the inventory in June 2020 (44) and it is 94% above the inventory last month (17).  There were 56 new sales in Rohnert Park in June.  This sales pace is slightly ahead of the 55 sales in June 2020 and it is 51% ahead of the sales last month (37).  This is the thirteenth month in a row where sales were in excess of the inventory at the beginning of the month.  In June, the month started with 17 available properties and there were 56 sales in the month.  There is a 0.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  This is the tightest market in Wine Country.  The median price ($540,000) of the 39 homes and condominiums that closed in June is 6% below the median price in June a year ago ($575,000).  Days on Market for the homes that closed in June is 30 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of June in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (46) is slightly above the level of June 2020 (45) and it is 15% below the inventory last month (54).  There were 53 new sales for the month of June.  This is 23% ahead of the pace in June 2020 (43) and it is 47% ahead of the pace last month (36).  There is a 0.9 months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace.  The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $400,000 to $600,000 over the past year.  The median was $575,000 for the 41 homes that closed in June.  The homes that closed in the Russian River in June went from listing to pending in 41 days.

Santa Rosa:  Thirty-eight percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of June (286) is 29% below the inventory of a year ago (400) and it is 6% below the inventory last month (304).  New sales in June (307) are 18% above the pace of last June (260) and they are 8% above the pace last month (284).  There is a 0.9 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 279 homes closed in June in Santa Rosa was $705,000 compared to $600,000 a year ago.  This is a 17.5% increase.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in June was 47 days.  

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of June in Sebastopol (36) is 22% below the level of June 2020 (46) and it is slightly below the inventory last month (37).  There were 36 new sales for the month of June.  This is 16% below the pace in June 2020 (41) and it is 18% below the pace last month (44).  There is a one months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace.  The 47 homes that closed in Sebastopol in June went from listing to pending in 37 days.

Sonoma Valley:  The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (119) at the end of June in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 6% below the inventory last June (127) and it is 4% ahead of the inventory of last month (115).   Seventy-three percent of the available properties in the Sonoma Valley (87) are priced at $1,000,000, or more. There were 66 new sales for the month. This is 5% ahead of the 63 sales in June 2020 and it is 13% below the 76 sales last month.  There is a 1.8 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  The average Days on Market for the 80 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in June is 41 days.  The closings in the month had a selling price equal to 99% of the original listing price.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of June starts at $3,750,000.  Thirty-nine homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 7 in the twelve months prior to that.  In June, there were 3 new sales in this quartile.  There are 28 homes available in this quartile in June 2021 compared to 19 a year ago and 21last month. Based on the current sales pace, the months of inventory is 9 months.  The average days on market for the 5 homes that closed in June in this quartile was 38 days.

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of June equals 34 properties.  This is 29% below the inventory in June 2020 (48) and it is 11% below the 38 homes last month.  There were 43 new sales for the month.  This is 12% below the pace of sales in June 2020 (49) and it is 17% below the pace of last month (52).  There is a 0.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The days on market for the 48 homes that closed in June 2020 in Windsor was 40 days.  The median price ($768,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in June is 6% above the median price a year ago ($725,000).

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of June was 61 homes.  This is 44% below the number of mobile homes available in June 2020 (109) and it is 22% above the number of available mobile homes last month (50).  There were 41 new mobile home sales in June.  This is 32% above the pace of sales in June 2020 (31) and it is also 33% ahead of the pace of sales last month (31).  There is a 1.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 43 mobile homes closed in June was 49 days and the median price was $170,000.  This median price is 7% above the median price of $159,000 in June 2020.  

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of June is 321 properties. The current inventory is 19% below the number of lots in June 2020 (395) and it is 7% ahead of the number of available lots last month (299). There were 45 new lot sales in June.  This is 6% below the pace of sales in June 2020 (48) and it is 10% above the pace of lot sales last month (41).  There is a 7.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 34 lots closed in June was 107 days and the median price was $310,000.  

Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of June (255) is 33% below the inventory in June 2020 (380) and it is 3% below the inventory last month (262).  Sixty-seven percent of the inventory in Napa County (170 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above.   New sales (159) are 15% below the pace of last year (186) and are 3% below the 164 sales last month.  There is a 1.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 60 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 126 homes closed in June in Napa County ($879,000) is 24% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($710,000).  Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 96.5% of original list price.

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $3.750,000 in Napa County at this time.  There has been an increase of 118% for the number of closings (72) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $3,750,000) in Napa County for the period 7/1/20 to 6/30/21 compared to 33 closings in the period 7/1/19 to 6/30/20.  There are 66 luxury homes in inventory at the end of June 2021 compared to 77 homes in inventory at the end of June 2020. There were 8 new Luxury Home sales in June compared to 5 last year and 5 last month.  This results in a 11 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to a 1.6 months supply for the County as a whole.  Days on market for the 9 luxury homes closings in June was 185 days.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 91% of original list price.

American Canyon:  There are only 7 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of June in American Canyon. This is 56% below the inventory a year ago (19) and it is slightly above the supply last month (5).  There were 10 new sales in the month.  This is 47% below the pace of last year (19) and one unit above the 9 sales last month.  There is a 0.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. American Canyon remains the tightest market in Wine Country.  The Days on Market for 13 homes that closed in American Canyon last month was just 24 days. The median price of the homes that closed in American Canyon in June ($725,000) was 40% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($517,000).  The average price per square foot of the homes sold in American Canyon was at $324 last month, This is above the $275 to $300 range where the sales have been over the past several years.

Napa:  Forty-nine percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 124 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of June in the City of Napa. This is 39% below the supply at the end of June 2020 (203) and it is 12% below the inventory at the end of last month (141).  New sales (126) were 5% ahead of the pace of June 2020 (120) and they were equal to the pace of last month (125). There is a 1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 127 closings last month was 53 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in June was $870,000. This is 22% ahead of the median price of the homes closed in June 2020 ($714,000).

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of June (110) is 20% below the level of 138 in June 2020 and it is 9% ahead of the inventory last month (101).  There were 18 new sales this month compared to 17 a year ago and 21 last month.  There is now a 6.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 27 closings last month was 103 days.  Approximately 64% of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $3,750,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (42 homes). There were four luxury home (price in excess of $3,500,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month and there were three new luxury home sales.  That makes a 14 month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.

In Angwin in June, inventory was 18 homes compared to 11 a year ago and 16 last month.  There were 6 new sales in Angwin for the month up from 2 a year ago and down from 3 last month.

Mobile Homes in Napa County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of June is 27 homes.  This is 29% below the number of mobile homes available in June 2020 (38) and it is 23% above the 22 available homes last month.  There were 9 new mobile home sales in June.  This is 36% below the pace of sales in June 2020 (14) and it is 44% below the pace of sales last month (16).  There is a 3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The average days on market of the 15 mobile homes closed in June was 77 days and the median price was $155,000.  This compares to a median price of $185,000 in June 2020 and $318,000.  The median price of sold mobile homes in Napa seems to vary quite a bit from month to month.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of June stands at 145.  This is 29% below the inventory in June 2020 (204) and it is 3% above the inventory last month (141).  New sales (83) in Mendocino County in June were 15% below the pace of June 2020 (98) and they were 22% above the pace last month (68).  There now is a 1.7 months supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 66 homes sold in Mendocino County in June is 54 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the homes closed in June in Mendocino County was $570,000. This is 32% ahead of the median price in June 2020 ($433,000).  Mendocino County homes are in high demand with prices rising quickly.

Ukiah:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of June in Ukiah is 26 homes.  This is 21% below the level of June 2020 (33) and it is 15% below the inventory last month (30).  There were 27 new sales for the month of June.  This is 18% below the number of sales in June 2020 (33) and it is 42% above the sales last month (19).  There is now a one months of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 22 closings last month was 38 days.  The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from $370,000 to $505,000. The median price was $514,000 for the homes that closed in June.

Hopland and Talmage:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of June in Hopland and Talmage is 3 homes.  This compares to 10 homes in inventory at the end of June 2020 and 9 homes in inventory last month.  There were four new sales for the month of June.  This compares to five sales in June 2020 and 5 new sales last month.  There were 4 closings in the Talmage-Hopland market last month with an average days on market of 37 days.

Redwood Valley and Calpella:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of June in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 14 homes.  This is 18% below the level of June 2020 (17) and it is 22% below the inventory last month (18).  There were 10 new sales for the month of June.  This compares to 7 sales in June 2020 and 4 new sales last month.  There is a 1.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $655,000.  There were 4 closings in Redwood Valley/Calpella in June at a median price of $642,000 and the homes sold in 36 days. 

Marin County:  Marin is often considered a “feeder” county to Wine Country.  Marin County’s inventory (289 homes) is 37% below the 456 homes in June 2020 and it is slightly above the 284 homes in inventory last month.  New sales (367) were equal to the number last June (367) and were slightly below the pace of last month (375).  This creates a 0.8 months supply.  The median price of the 405 homes sold in Marin County in June was $1,575,000.  This is 19% ahead of the median price a year ago ($1,325,000) and is the highest median price recorded for any month in Marin County.