Wine Country Real Estate Trends in January 2021

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for January 2021 

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group enjoyed 37 closings in January 2021 compared to 14 last January and 49 last month.  In January, we closed homes with a total value of $26.3 million compared to $10.0 million last year and $29.8 million last month.  The average selling price of the properties sold by BHGRE|WCG in January was $710,184.   

BHGRE|WCG currently has 54 pending sales with a value of $47 million dollars.  We are 31% ahead of our volume last year.  We have 51 active listings with a value of $41 million dollars.  Our average listing price is $804,000.  This is 8% below last year’s average. 

Congratulations to the following agents who had closings in the month of February:

Mari Giblin (7); Sheila Deignan (4); Gina Fisicaro (3); Randy Knight (2); Heather Thurber (2); Team Ramos; Parmeeta Ghoman; Catherine Carmody; Linda Alioto; Daniel Galvin; The Oscar-Kopelman Team Laurie Parris; David Barker; Sylvia Schagerer; Juliet Casazza; Leo Merle; Tish Thames and Pippa Whelan; Liz Manfree; Jill Rake; Tina Nelson; Isaac Raboy; Nicole Moktan and Jennifer Carollo.  

North Bay Real Estate Trends for January 2021

For all of the areas covered by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Lake, Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, there is an inventory of 1,454 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of January.  This is the lowest inventory that we have had in any month in the reporting of MLS data going back to 2005.  Inventory is 37.5% below that of a year ago (2,326) and 10% below last month (1,612). At times, the inventory has exceeded 10,000 homes in the BAREIS region.  There were 807 sales for the month of January.  This is the lowest number of sales for any month since November of 2007.  This number is 23% below a year ago (1,048) and 28.5% below last month (1,129).  The real estate market often rebounds after Super Bowl Sunday, (2/7/21), so we will look for improvement in both inventory and sales in the coming month.

I have been following a data point I call the “Price Reduction Ratio”.  Across the country, one might expect that 30 to 35% of the homes put into the MLS to sell will have a price reduction before they eventually sell.  For January 2021, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, the range was from 20% (Mendocino County) to 28% (Sonoma County). Conversely, the ratio of homes selling in excess of Original List Price ranged from 30% (Mendocino) to 40% (Napa County).  

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of January stands at 525.  This is 26% below the inventory in January 2020 (708) and it is 8% below the inventory last month (573).  This is the lowest inventory in the past two years.  There is a 2.4 months supply of inventory.  New sales (221) in Sonoma County in January were 29% below the pace of January 2020 (312) and they were 42% below the pace last month (379).  The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 28 (Coastal Sonoma) to 57 (Sonoma) days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 55 days.  The median price of the 353 homes closed in January in Sonoma County was $665,000.  This is 7% above the median price in January 2020 ($620,000).  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 98% of their original list price.  

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,500,000).  There has been an 80% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (449) from 2/1/20 to 1/31/21 compared to 250 closings in the period 2/1/19 to 1/31/20. The inventory of luxury homes (126) is 12% below the inventory in January 2020 (143 homes).  The pace of new sales (23) in January this year is 35% ahead of the pace of a year ago (17) and it is 23% below the pace last month (30).  The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 64 days this January compared to 110 days a year ago. This compares to 55 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in January. There is a 5.5 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 2.4 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 95% of original list price.

Cloverdale:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (18) in Cloverdale at the end of January is 28% below the inventory in January 2020 (25).  It is also 28% below the inventory of last month. There were 6 new sales in Cloverdale in January.  This compares to 7 sales in January 2020 and 16 new sales last month.  There is a 3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 12 homes that closed in January was 59 days.

Coastal Sonoma:  There are only 2 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This compares to 17 homes in inventory in January 2020 and 5 homes last month.  There essentially are no homes to purchase in Coastal Sonoma.  There were 3 new sales in January compared to 6 a year ago and 9 last month.  There is now a 0.7 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 7 homes that closed in January was 36 days. The coastal area continues to be a favored destination with a very tight market.

Healdsburg Trends:  There are 53 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month.  This is 5% below the inventory in January 2020 (56) and it is essentially equal to the inventory last month (54).  New sales in January (9) were 18% below the pace of sales in January 2020 (11) and they were 40% below the sales pace last month (15).  The months of available inventory is now 5.9 months based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 24 homes that closed in January was 115 days.  

Oakmont: There are 47 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of January.  This is 9% above the inventory in January 2020 (43) and it is 12% above the inventory of last month (42).  New sales (5) were 69% below the sales pace of a year ago (16) and 50% below the pace of last month (10).  There is a 9.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high-$500,000’s up to $800,000.  The median price was $577,000 for the 10 homes that closed in January.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in January was 56 days.  

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of January (31) is 26% below the inventory in January 2020 (42) and it is 16% below the inventory last month (37).  There were 31 new sales for the month.  This is 14% below the sales in January 2020 (36) and it is 24% below the sales pace last month (41).  The Petaluma market currently has 1.0 months supply of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 41 homes that closed in January was $935,000. This is 26% ahead of the median price last January ($743,000).  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in January was 49 days.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of January (16) is 45% below the inventory in January 2020 (29) and it is 14% above the inventory last month (14).  There were 22 new sales in Rohnert Park in January.  This sales pace is 24% below the 29 sales in January 2020 and it is 31% below the sales last month (32).  There is a 0.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price ($568,000) of the 28 homes and condominiums that closed in January is essentially equal to the median price a year ago ($565,000).  Days on Market for the homes that closed in January was 40 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of January in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (21) is 34% below the level of January 2020 (32) and it is 9% below the inventory last month (23).  There were 13 new sales for the month of January. This is 35% below the pace in January 2020 (20) and it is 43% below the pace last month (23).  There is a 1.6 months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace. The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $400,000 to the high $500,000s over the past year. The median was $550,000 for the 22 homes that closed in January.  The homes that closed in the Russian River in January went from listing to pending in 68 days.

Santa Rosa:  Forty-eight percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of January (251) is 17% below the inventory of a year ago (302) and it is 6% below the inventory last month (267). New sales in January (92) are 33% below the pace of last January (138) and they are 41% below the pace last month (156).  There is a 2.7 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 140 homes closed in January in Santa Rosa was $600,000 compared to $599,000 a year ago.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in January was 52 days.  

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of January in Sebastopol (34) is 11% below the level of January 2020 (38) and it is 17% ahead of the inventory last month (29).  There were 14 new sales for the month of January.  This is equal to the pace in January 2020 (14) and it is 22% below the pace last month (18).  There is a 2.4 months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace. The 14 homes that closed in Sebastopol in January went from listing to pending in 85 days.

Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (55) at the end of January in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 34% below the inventory last January (83) and it is 27% below the inventory of last month (75).   There were 19 new sales for the month. This is 10% below the 21 sales in January 2020 and it is 41% below the 32 sales last month. There is a 2.9 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  The average Days on Market for the 33 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in January is 51 days. Seventy-one percent (39 properties) of the inventory in the Sonoma Valley is priced at $1,000,000 or above and 32% of the new sales (6) in January were priced at over $1,000,000.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of January starts at $2,800,000.  Fifty-three homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 21 in the twelve months prior to that.  Thirty-three of those 53 closings occurred in the three months of June, July and August. There was a strong surge in top quartile sales in May, June July and August but that pace has dropped off.  in January, there were two new sales in this quartile.  There are 14 homes available in this quartile in January 2021 compared to 11 a year ago and 17 last month. Based on the current sales pace, the months of inventory is 7 months.

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of January equals 28 properties.  This is 30% below the inventory in January 2020 (40) and it is 22% above the 23 homes last month.  There were just 6 new sales for the month.  This is 67% below the pace of sales in January 2020 (18) and it is 77% below the pace of last month (26).  There is a 4.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace compared to a 1.0 month supply last month.  The days on market for the 30 homes that closed in January 2020 in Windsor was 50 days. The median price ($695,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in January is 10% above the median price a year ago ($629,000).  

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County: The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of January dropped to 65 homes.  This is 24% below the number of mobile homes available in January 2020 (86) and it is 9% below the number of available mobile homes last month (71).  There were 14 new mobile home sales in January.  This is 39% below the pace of sales in January 2020 (23) and it is 44% below the pace of sales last month (25).  There is a 4.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 28 mobile homes closed in January was 95 days and the median price was $134,000.  This median price is 11% below the median price of $150,000 in January 2020.  

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County: The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of January is 314 properties.  This is 18% below the number of lots in January 2020 (383) and it is 1% below the number of available lots last month (318). There were 15 new lot sales in January.  This is 58% below the pace of sales in January 2020 (36) and it is 53% below the pace of lot sales last month (32).  The sales of lots dropped off in February.  There is a 21 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The average days on market of the 27 lots closed in January was 163 days and the median price was $260,000, 5% above the median price a year ago ($248,000).

Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of January (218) is 13.5% below the inventory in January 2020 (252) and it is 3% ahead of the inventory last month (211).  Fifty-nine percent of the inventory in Napa County (129 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above.   New sales (58) are 11% below the pace of last year (65) and are 35% below the 89 sales last month.  This is the lowest number of sales for any month in Napa County since January 2008. There is a 3.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace compared to a 2.2 months supply last month.  The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 63 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 81 homes closed in January in Napa County ($716,000) is 5% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($680,000). Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 94% of original list price.

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $2,900,000 in Napa County at this time, down from $,3,250,000 last month.  There has been an increase of 89% for the number of closings (83) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $2,900,000) in Napa County for the period 2/1/20 to 1/31/21 compared to 44 closings in the period 2/1/19 to 1/31/20.  There are 55 luxury homes in inventory at the end of January 2021 compared to 50 at the end of January 2020. There were 2 new Luxury Home sales in January compared to 3 last year and 5 last month.  This results in a 27.5 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to a 3.8 months supply for the County as a whole.  Days on market for the 4 luxury homes closings in January was 92 days.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 87% of original list price.

American Canyon:  There are 4 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of January in American Canyon. This is just below the inventory a year ago (5) and it is just above the supply last month (3).  There were just two new sales in the month.  This is 78% below the pace of last year (9) and 80% below the 10 sales last month.  There is a 2.0 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. American Canyon remains the tightest market in Wine Country.  The Days on Market for 9 homes that closed in American Canyon last month was only 59 days. The median price of the homes that closed in American Canyon in January ($480,000) was 28% below the median price of a year ago ($670,000). The average price per square foot of the homes sold in American Canyon remains in the $250 to $300 range. 

Napa:  Fifty-six percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 123 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of January in the City of Napa. This is 11.5% below the supply at the end of January 2020 (139) and it is 11% above the inventory at the end of last month (111). New sales (45) were equal to the pace of January 2020 (45) and they were 24% below the pace of last month (59). There is a 2.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 50 closings last month was 60 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in January was $710,000. This is 12% ahead of the median price of the homes closed in January 2020 ($633,000).

Up Valley Napa County:  Up Valley Napa real estate ground to a halt beginning 9/27/20 with the outbreak of the “Glass Fire” in the area.  Inventory fell by 12% and new sales were off 56% from the prior month. The home sales market is upset by the loss of over 113 structures and the need for residents to occupy homes that were otherwise slated to be for sale in the near future.  We expect the market to be disrupted for months to come. As in the 2017 Wine Country wild fires, we will watch to see how many burned lots are brought on the market and how many owners decide to remain and rebuild – a multi-year process.

The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of January (78) is equal to the level of 78 in January 2020 and it is 6% below the inventory last month (83).  There were 9 new sales this month compared to 9 a year ago and 14 last month.  There is now a 8.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  This is up from a 3 months supply in September.  The Days on Market for the 14 closings last month was 73 days.  Approximately 45% of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $2,900,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (25 homes).  This is down from 66% in September.  There were 3 luxury home (price in excess of $2,900,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month and there was one new luxury home sale.

In Angwin in January, inventory went up 67% to 15 homes compared to 9 a year ago and 10 last month.  There was one new sale for the month.

Mobile Homes in Napa County: The mobile home market in Napa County has taken off as some fire victims are purchasing mobile homes as temporary residences while they wait for their insurance matters to be processed.  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of January is 22 homes.  This is 50% below the number of mobile homes available in January 2020 (44) and it is 21% below the available homes last month (28).  There were 18 new mobile home sales in January. This is 200% above the pace of sales in January 2020 (6) and it is slightly below the pace of sales last month (19).  There is a 1.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace compared to over a seven month supply a year ago.  The average days on market of the 16 mobile homes closed in January was 115 days and the median price was $195,000.  This is 43% above the median price of $136,000 in January 2020.  The median price was $109,000 in October so it jumped up from last month.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of January stands at 100.  This is 60% below the inventory in January 2020 (249) and it is 15% below the inventory last month (117).  New sales (28) in Mendocino County in January were 40% below the pace of January 2020 (47) and they were 35% below the pace last month (43).  There now is a 3.6 months supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 53 homes sold in Mendocino County in January is 81 days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the homes closed in January in Mendocino County was $510,000. This is 27% ahead of the median price in January 2020 ($403,000). Mendocino County homes seem to be in high demand with prices rising quickly.

Ukiah: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of January in Ukiah is 21 homes.  This is 43% below the level of January 2020 (37) and it is 16% below the inventory last month (25).  There were 8 new sales for the month of January.  This is 39% below the number of sales in January 2020 (13) and it is 43% below the sales last month (14).  There is now 2.6 months of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 15 closings last month was 51 days.  The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from $370,000 to $505,000. The median price was $515,000 for the homes that closed in January.  This sets a new median high price for any month of closings in Ukiah.

Hopland and Talmage:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of January in Hopland and Talmage is 11 homes.  This compares to 7 homes in inventory at the end of January 2020 and 15 homes in inventory last month.  There was one new sales for the month of January.  This compares to 4 sales in January 2020 and no new sales last month. One home closed in January in Hopland/Talmage with a Days on Market period of 105 days.

Redwood Valley and Calpella: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of January in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 6 homes. This is 46% below the level of January 2020 (11) and it is equal to the inventory last month (6).  There were 2 new sales for the month of January.  This compares to 2 sales in January 2020 and 2 new sales last month.  There is a 3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $655,000.  There were two closings in Redwood Valley/Calpella in January at a median price of $535,000 and the homes sold in 64 days. 

Marin County: Marin County’s inventory (214 homes) is 3% above the 208 homes in January 2020 and it is 8% below the 233 homes in inventory last month.  New sales (148) were 5% ahead of the number last January (141) and were 26% below the pace of last month (199).  This creates a 1.4 months supply.  The median price of the 186 homes sold in Marin County in January was $1,215,000.  This is 18% ahead of the median price a year ago ($1,030,000).