Wine Country Real Estate Trends in December 2020

Wine Country Market Value Shifts and Sales Trends for 2020 

I’ve done a chart of Wine Country Market Value Shifts dating back to 1998.  I’ve added the latest data for 2020 so if you’d like a copy, drop me an email.  According to the Bay Area Real Estate Services MLS figures, the average price of residential real estate sales across Wine Country (Sonoma, Napa and Mendocino Counties) increased by 16% in 2020.  This compares to an increase of 6.8% in 2019. The average price of all closings in Sonoma County was $1,015,661 (up 14% from one year ago), the average in Napa County was $1,123,437 (up 19% from a year ago) and the average in Mendocino County was $733,515 (up 24% from one year ago).  I’m expecting prices to moderate their increase in 2021 and average, perhaps, below 10% for the year. It will vary from market to market and in different price ranges.

There were 6,443 closings of single-family homes and condominiums across Wine Country in 2020 compared to 5,834 closings in 2019.   This is a 10.4% increase in closings.  There was a 10% increase in Sonoma County (4,437 in 2020 compared to 4,026 in 2019) while Napa Country was up 13% year over year at 1,443 units compared to 1,279 units in 2019 and Mendocino County was up 6% in closing volume – 563 sales compared to 529 in 2019. I expect the 2020 volume will again be steady or slightly down from the volume in 2020 due to our low inventory at the start of this year.  There are record low mortgage interest rates (2.65% on conventional loans) to start the year and this will serve to buoy the markets.  The total sales dollar volume was over $6.5 billion dollars – $4.5 billion in Sonoma County, $1.6 billion in Napa County and $413 million in Mendocino County. This compares to $5.1 billion dollars last year.

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for December 2020 

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group enjoyed 48 closings in December 2020 compared to 49 last December and 58 last month.  In December, we closed homes with a total value of $29.8 million compared to $24.4 million last year and $37.2 million last month.  The average selling price of the properties sold by BHGRE|WCG in December was $621,872.   

BHGRE|WCG currently has 57 pending sales with a value of $40 million dollars.  We are 43% ahead of our volume last year.  We have 64 active listings with a value of $57 million dollars.  Our average listing price is $891,000.  This is 17% ahead of last year’s average. 

For all of 2020, BHGRE|WCG closed approximately 570 transactions (up 12% from 2019) with a value of approximately $350 million dollars (up 28% from 2019).  

Congratulations to the following agents who had closings in the month of December:

Mari Giblin (6); Rianne Pasquariello (4); Terry Bell (4); Mike Caselli (3); The Oscar-Koppelman Team (2); Kendra Martin (2); Amy Wray (2); Martha Saly (2); Team Ramos; Parmeeta Ghoman; Catherine Carmody; Linda Alioto; Laurie Parris; Sheila Deignan; Monica Kangas; Patty Marken; Rebecca Nichols; Herb Heil; Rebecca Nichols; Liz Manfree; Joe Hebel; Patricia Paulsen and Gina Fisicaro.

Also, congratulations to the following who ended 2020 on a high note and/or started 2021 with a bang:

Last closings of 2020 on 12/31/20:

                  Randy Coffman and Rebecca Nichols, Sebastopol

                  Gina Fisicaro, Santa Rosa

                  Mara Kahn and Zebi Bojarski, Sonoma

         1^stnew listing in 2021:  David Barker, Napa

         1^stnew sale in 2021:  Trudy and Cameron Ramos, Ukiah

Wine Country Real Estate Trends for December 2020

For the past few months I have been following a data point I call the “Price Reduction Ratio”.  Across the country, one might expect that 30 to 35% of the homes put into the MLS to sell will have a price reduction before they eventually sell. For December 2020, of all closed homes in Sonoma County, 22% had price reductions before selling.  In Napa, the ratio was 25% and in Mendocino County it was 19%.  Conversely, the ratio of homes selling in excess of Original List Price was 44% in Sonoma County, 45% in Napa County and 19% in Mendocino County.  

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of December stands at 573.  This is 18% below the inventory in December 2019 (700) and it is 26% below the inventory last month (779).  There is a 1.4 months supply of inventory.  New sales (409) in Sonoma County in December were 48% above the pace of December 2019 (277) and they were 11% below the pace last month (461).  The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 28 (Coastal Sonoma) to 57 (Sonoma) days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 45 days.  The median price of the 488 homes closed in December in Sonoma County was $691,000.  This is 14% above the median price in December 2019 ($605,000).  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 98% of their original list price.  

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,400,000).  There has been a 65% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (504) from 1/1/20 to 12/31/20 compared to 305 closings in the period 1/1/19 to 12/31/19. The inventory of luxury homes (144) is 5% below the inventory in December 2019 (152 homes).  The pace of new sales (40) in December this year is 167% ahead of the pace of a year ago (15) and it is 18% below the pace last month (49).  The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 49 days this December compared to 116 days a year ago. This compares to 45 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in December. There is a 3.6 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 1.4 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 95% of original list price.

Cloverdale:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (25) in Cloverdale at the end of December is 9% above the inventory in December 2019 (23).  It is 36% below the inventory of last month (39). There were 17 new sales in Cloverdale in December.  This compares to 3 sales in December 2019 and 13 new sales last month.  There is a 1.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 15 homes that closed in December was 34 days.

Coastal Sonoma:  There are only 5 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This compares to 21 homes in inventory in December 2019 and 5 homes last month. There essentially are no homes to purchase in Coastal Sonoma.  There were 9 new sales in December compared to 1 a year ago and 2 last month.  There is now a 0.6 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 3 homes that closed in December was 28 days. The coastal area continues to be a favored destination.

Healdsburg Trends:  There are 54 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month.  This is 19% below the inventory in December 2019 (67) and it is 33% below the inventory last month (80).  New sales in December (15) were 36% ahead of the pace of sales in December 2019 (11) and they were equal to the sales pace last month.  The months of available inventory is now 3.6 months based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 24 homes that closed in December was 52 days.  

Oakmont: There are 42 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of December.  This is 5% above the inventory in December 2019 (40) and it is 12.5% below the inventory of last month (48).  New sales (11) were 57% ahead of the sales pace of a year ago (7) and slightly below the pace of last month (12).  There is a 3.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high-$500,000’s up to $800,000.  The median price was $618,000 for the 11 homes that closed in December.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in December was 50 days.  

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of December (37) is 12% below the inventory in December 2019 (42) and it is also 12% below the inventory last month (42).  There were 41 new sales for the month.  This is 17% ahead of the sales in December 2019 (35) and it is 41% below the sales pace last month (69).  The Petaluma market currently has 0.9 months supply of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 68 homes that closed in December was $798,000. This is 15% ahead of the median price last December ($696,000).  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in December was 33 days.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of December (14) is 60% below the inventory in December 2019 (35) and it is 55% below the inventory last month (31).  There were 33 new sales in Rohnert Park in December.  This sales pace is 50% ahead of the 22 sales in December 2019 and it is 8% below the sales last month (36).  There is a 0.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price ($600,000) of the 41 homes and condominiums that closed in December is 3% ahead of the median price a year ago ($584,000). Days on Market for the homes that closed in December was 36 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of December in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (23) is 41% below the level of December 2019 (39) and it is 45% below the inventory last month (42).  There were 24 new sales for the month of December. This is 71% ahead of the pace in December 2019 (14) and it is 11% below the pace last month (27).  There is a one months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace. The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $400,000 to the low $500,000s over the past year. The median was $503,000 for the 28 homes that closed in December.  The homes that closed in the Russian River in December went from listing to pending in 33 days.

Santa Rosa:  Forty-seven percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of December (267) is 1.5% below the inventory of a year ago (271) and it is 22% below the inventory last month (340). New sales in December (177) are 36% ahead of the pace of last December (130) and they are 5% ahead of the pace last month (168).  There is a 1.5 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 184 homes closed in December in Santa Rosa was $660,000 compared to $575,000 a year ago – a 15% increase.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in December was 48 days.  

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of December in Sebastopol (29) is 36% below the level of December 2019 (45) and it is equal to the inventory last month (29).  There were 22 new sales for the month of December.  This is 175% ahead of the pace in December 2019 (8) and it is 37% below the pace last month (35).  There is a 1.3 months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace. The 30 homes that closed in Sebastopol in December went from listing to pending in 36 days.

Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (75) at the end of December in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 3% below the inventory last December (77) and it is 31% below the inventory of last month (109).   There were 31 new sales for the month. This is 41% above the 22 sales in December 2019 and it is 16% below the 37 sales last month. There is a 2.4 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  The average Days on Market for the 41 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in December is 57 days. Sixty-nine percent (52 properties) of the inventory in the Sonoma Valley is priced at $1,000,000 or above and 35% of the new sales (11) in December were priced at over $1,000,000.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of December starts at $2,700,000.  Fifty-four homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 22 in the twelve months prior to that.  Thirty-five of those 54 closings occurred in the three months of June, July and August. There was a strong surge in top quartile sales in May, June July and August but that pace has dropped off.  in December, there were four new sales in this quartile.  There are 18 homes available in this quartile in December 2020 compared to 13 a year ago and 29 last month. Based on the current sales pace, the months of inventory is 9 months.

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of December equals 23 properties.  This is 23% below the inventory in December 2019 (30) and it is 28% below the 32 homes last month.  There were 24 new sales for the month.  This is 60% above the pace of sales in December 2019 (15) and it is 32% below the pace of last month (35).  There is a 1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The days on market for the 34 homes that closed in December 2019  in Windsor was 44 days.  The median price ($657,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in December is slightly below the median price a year ago ($665,000).  

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County: The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of December is 70 homes.  This is 22% below the number of mobile homes available in December 2019 (90) and it is 17% below the number of available mobile homes last month (84).  There were 30 new mobile home sales in December.  This is 67% above the pace of sales in December 2019 (18) and it is essentially equal to the pace of sales last month (29).  There is a 2.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 31 mobile homes closed in December was 92 days and the median price was $165,000.  This median price is 50% ahead of the median price of $110,000 in December 2019.  

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County: The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of December is 318 properties.  This is 25% below the number of lots in December 2019 (421) and it is 11% below the number of available lots last month (359). There were 40 new lot sales in December.  This is 150% ahead of the pace of sales in December 2019 (16) and it is 48% ahead of the pace of lot sales last month (27).  The sales of lots picked up in December.  There is a 8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 32 lots closed in December was 149 days and the median price was $300,000 – 28% above the median price a year ago ($235,000).

Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of December (211) is 25% below the inventory in December 2019 (282) and it is 27% below the inventory last month (290).  This is the lowest inventory in Napa County since February of 2018.  Sixty-four percent of the inventory in Napa County (136 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above.   New sales (95) are 40% ahead of the pace of last year (68) and are 22% below the 121 sales last month.  There is a 2.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace compared to a 4.1 months supply last year.  The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 63 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 143 homes closed in December in Napa County ($835,000) is 18% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($705,000). This is the highest median price for sold homes ever recorded for any month in Napa County.  Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 91% of original list price.

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $3,250,000 in Napa County at this time, up from $,3,000,000 last month.  The number of closings (67) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $3,250,000) in Napa County for the period 1/1/20 to 12/31/20 compared to 37 closings in the period 1/1/19 to 12/31/19. There are 54 luxury homes in inventory at the end of December 2020 compared to 51 at the end of December 2019. There were 4 new Luxury Home sales in December compared to 0 last year and 6 last month.  This results in a 13.5 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to a 2.2 months supply for the County as a whole.  Days on market for the 9 luxury homes sales in December was 126 days.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 87% of original list price.

American Canyon:  There are just 3 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of December in American Canyon. This is 73% below the inventory a year ago (11) and it is 50% below the supply last month (6).  New sales (11) are 22% above the pace of last year (9) and slightly below the 13 sales last month.  There is a 0.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. This is the tightest market in Wine Country.  The Days on Market for 15 homes that closed in American Canyon last month was only 22 days. The median price of the homes that closed in American Canyon in January ($660,000) was 22% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($538,000). The average price per square foot of the homes sold in American Canyon remains in the $250 to $300 range.  It remains a tight market in American Canyon.

Napa:  Fifty-three percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 111 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of December in the City of Napa. This is 23% below the supply at the end of December 2019 (144) and it is 33% below the inventory at the end of last month (165). New sales (62) were 19% ahead of the pace of December 2019 (52) and they were 31% below the pace of last month (90). There is a 1.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 104 closings last month was 54 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in December was $847,000. This is 18% ahead of the median price of the homes closed in December 2019 ($715,000) and the highest median price of sold homes ever recorded for any month in the City of Napa.

Up Valley Napa County:  Up Valley Napa real estate ground to a halt beginning 9/27/20 with the outbreak of the “Glass Fire” in the area.  Inventory fell by 12% and new sales were off 56% from the prior month. The home sales market is upset by the loss of over 113 structures and the need for residents to occupy homes that were otherwise slated to be for sale in the near future.  We expect the market to be disrupted for months to come. As in the 2017 Wine Country wild fires, we will watch to see how many burned lots are brought on the market and how many owners decide to remain and rebuild – a multi-year process.

The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of December (83) is 10% below the level of 92 in December 2019 and it is 19% below the inventory last month (103).  There were 15 new sales this month compared to 17 a year ago and 19 last month.  There is now a 6.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  This is up from a 3 month supply in September.  The Days on Market for the 21 closings last month was 92 days.  Approximately 58% of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $3,000,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (42 homes).  This is down from 66% in September.  There were 6 luxury home (price in excess of $3,000,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month and there were 4 new luxury home sales.

Mobile Homes in Napa County: The mobile home market in Napa County has taken off as some fire victims are purchasing mobile homes as temporary residences while they wait for their insurance matters to be processed.  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of December is 22 homes.  This is 50% below the number of mobile homes available in December 2019 (44) and it is 21% below the available homes last month (28).  There were 18 new mobile home sales in December. This is 200% above the pace of sales in December 2019 (6) and it is slightly below the pace of sales last month (19).  There is a 1.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace compared to over a seven month supply a year ago.  The average days on market of the 16 mobile homes closed in December was 115 days and the median price was $195,000.  This is 43% above the median price of $136,000 in December 2019.  The median price was $109,000 in October so it jumped up from last month.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of December stands at 117.  This is 53% below the inventory in December 2019 (247) and it is 16% below the inventory last month (139).  New sales (56) in Mendocino County in December were 75% ahead of the pace of December 2019 (32) and they were 21% below the pace last month (71).  There now is a 2.1 months supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 75 homes sold in Mendocino County in December is 83 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the homes closed in December in Mendocino County was $540,000. This is 21% ahead of the median price in December 2019 ($447,000).  Mendocino County homes seem to be in high demand with prices rising quickly.

Ukiah: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of December in Ukiah is 25 homes.  This is 36% below the level of December 2019 (39) and it is 17% below the inventory last month (30).  There were 17 new sales for the month of December.  This is 113% above the number of sales in December 2019 (8) and it is 29% below the sales last month (24).  There is now 1.5 months of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 21 closings last month was 56 days.  The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from $370,000 to $505,000. The median price was $460,000 for the homes that closed in December.

Hopland and Talmage:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of December in Hopland and Talmage is 15 homes.  This compares to 12 homes in inventory at the end of December 2019 and 13 homes in inventory last month.  There were no new sales for the month of December.  This compares to no sales in December 2019 and two new sales last month. Two homes closed in December in Hopland/Talmage with a Days on Market period of 26 days.

Redwood Valley and Calpella: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of December in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 6 homes. This is 50% below the level of December 2019 (12) and it is 46% below the inventory last month (11).  There were 4 new sales for the month of December. This compares to no sales in December 2019 and 2 new sales last month.  There is a 6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $655,000.  There was just one closing in Redwood Valley/Calpella in December at a price of $750,000.

Marin County: Marin County’s inventory (233 homes) is 18% above the 198 homes in December 2019 and it is 34% below the 353 homes in inventory last month.  New sales (188) were 61% ahead of the number last December (117) and were 32% below the pace of last month (275).  This creates a 1.2 months supply.  The median price of the 292 homes sold in Marin County in December was $1,336,000.  This is 18% ahead of the median price a year ago ($1,135,000).