Wine Country Real Estate Trends in May 2020

“Urban Flight Syndrome?” affects Wine Country Real Estate Markets

It’s been cited in Bloomberg News, SF Gate and other media that folks from the urban areas around the Bay are buying up properties in Sonoma, Napa and Mendocino Counties.  There has also been increased activity in Marin County.  In recent polls, agents are reporting an uptick in buyers from San Francisco and the Peninsula.  This is partly spurred on by changing work conditions where many employees will be continuing to work from home and not be required to show up at their downtown or Silicon Valley offices on a daily basis.  This leaves them free to move out of expensive rentals to relatively affordable homes in our markets.  We’re also experiencing a surge in “high end” purchases as second homes so folks can leave their urban surroundings to distance them from COVID-19 risks.  You will see some surprising numbers in this Market Update where we had record sales in some sectors and have continuing low inventory.  The logical conclusion is that home prices may rise, but it will take more months to track this.  This may not be good for home affordability in our Wine Country markets, but it does bring economic investment and strength to our local economies.

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for May 2020

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group enjoyed 20 closings in May 2020 compared to 48 last May and 28 last month.  In May, we closed homes with a total value of $9.3 million compared to $29.2 million last year and $14 million last month.  The low closings in May are the direct result of the fall off in sales in March and May when the market was disrupted by COVID-19 and the ensuing restrictions on our business. The average selling price of the properties sold by the Wine Country Group in May was $465,640.

BHGRE|WCG currently has 62 pending sales with a value of $39 million dollars. This is roughly 15% ahead in units and dollar volume on a year over year basis, so we have recovered from the reduced sales pace in March and April.  We have 97 active listings with a value of $76 million dollars.  Both are ahead of a year ago.  Our average listing price is $784,000.  This is 2% below last year’s average.

Congratulations to the following agents who had closings in May:

Monica Kangas and Mari Giblin (3) in Santa Rosa; Laurie Parris (2), Randy Knight, Martha Saly (2), Maureen Linde and William Cole in Sebastopol;  The Oscar Kopelman Team, Freddie Diaz(2), Chelsie Runnings, Oak Senvardarli and Herb Heil in Sonoma; Eric Garbocci (2) and Trudy Sellars (2) Ramos in Ukiah.

And, congratulations to Parmeeta Gohman who finished fifth in a nationwide Better Homes and Gardens Lead Generation Contest.

Wine Country Real Estate Trends for May 2020

 Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of May stands at 1,042.  This is 7% below the inventory in May 2019 (1,120) and it is 22% above the inventory last month (857).  At the end of the month, there were 74 listings in “Coming Soon” status and another 64 “Temporarily Off Market” (TOM).  If those were added to the “Active” inventory, there would be 1,180 active listings.  This would be consistent with the inventory levels we usually see in May.  It would also put us at 2 months supply of inventory. Many of these Coming Soon and TOM listings are coming on the market at this time as greater access to homes has been permitted in our markets.

New sales (516) in Sonoma County in May were 1.4% above the pace of May 2019 (509) and they were a whopping 155% ahead of the pace last month (202).  Though strong in May, sales over the “COVID period” March through May are down roughly 25%.

There is a 2 months supply of inventory in Sonoma County based on the existing sales pace.  The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 41 (Petaluma) to 160 (Healdsburg) days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  This may be protracted with the current circumstances.  The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 70 days.  The median price of the 203 homes closed in May in Sonoma County was $640,000.  This is equal to the median price in May 2019.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at roughly 96% of their original list price.

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,200,000).  There has been an 9% decrease in the number of Luxury Homes closed (443) from 6/1/19 to 5/31/20 compared to 491 closings in the period 6/1/18 to 5/31/19. The inventory of luxury homes (268) is 23% below the inventory in May 2019 (347 homes).  The pace of new sales (78) in May this year is 57% ahead of the pace of a year ago (57) and it is 358% ahead of the pace last month (17).  This may be part of the “Urban Flight Syndrome” mentioned above. For the period March through May, new sales are 17% behind that for 2019.  The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 88 days this May compared to 63 days a year ago. This compares to 63 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in May.  There is a 3.4 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 2 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market. Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 92% of original list price.

Cloverdale:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (44) in Cloverdale at the end of May is 29% ahead of the inventory in May 2019 (34).  It is 33% above the inventory last month (33). There were 14 new sales in Cloverdale in May.  This compares to 17 sales in May 2019 and 5 new sales last month.  There is a 3.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 8 homes that closed in May was 50 days.

Coastal Sonoma:  There are 26 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This compares to 29 homes in inventory in May 2019 and 23 homes last month. There were 11 new sales in May compared to 5 a year ago and 3 last month.  There is now a 2.4 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 4 homes that closed in May was 138 days.

Healdsburg Trends:  There are 89 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month.  This is 28% below the inventory in May 2019 (124) and it is 19% above the inventory last month (75).  New sales in May (21) were 31% ahead of the pace of sales in May 2019 (16) and they were 163% ahead of the sales pace last month (8).  The months of available inventory is now 4.2 months based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 11 homes that closed in May was 160 days.

Oakmont: There are 62 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of May.  This is 11% ahead of the inventory in May 2019 (56) and it is 48% ahead of the inventory last month (42).  New sales (17) were 31% ahead of the sales pace of a year ago (13) and 143% ahead of the pace of last month (7).  There is a 3.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high-$500,000’s up to $800,000.  The median price was $541,000 for the 6 homes that closed in May.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in May was 53 days.

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of May (71) is 26% below the inventory in May 2019 (96) and it is 13% ahead of the inventory last month (63).  There were 56 new sales for the month.  This is 3% below the 58 sales in May 2019 and it is 57% ahead of the 30 new sales last month.  The Petaluma market currently has 1.3 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace.  This is one of the lowest months of inventory for any of our markets in Wine Country. The median price of the 25 homes that closed in May was $695,000.  This is equal to the median price last May.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in May was 46 days.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of May (43) is 12% below the inventory in May 2019 (49) and it is 10% below the inventory last month (48).  There were 36 new sales in Rohnert Park in May.  This is 22% below the 45 sales in May 2019 and it is 140% ahead of the sales last month (15).  There is a 1.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price ($580,000) of the 14 homes and condominiums that closed in May is 2% ahead of the median price a year ago ($570,000).  Days on Market for the homes that closed in May was 41 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of May in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (63) is 19% below the level of May 2019 (78) and it is 29% above the inventory last month (49).  There were 36 new sales for the month of May.  This is 20% ahead of the pace in May 2019 (30) and it is 350% ahead of the pace last month. There is a 1.8 months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace.  The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $400,000 to the low $500,000s over the past year.  The median was $417,000 for the 11 homes that closed in May.  The homes that closed in the Russian River in May went from listing to pending in 96 days.

Santa Rosa:  Forty percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of May (416) is 20% above the inventory of a year ago (347) and it is 23% above the inventory last month (337).  New sales in May (199) are slightly below the pace of last May (202) and they are 146% ahead of the pace last month (81).  There is a 2.1 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 77 homes closed in May in Santa Rosa was $605,000 compared to $585,000 a year ago – a 3% increase.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in May was 59 days.

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of May in Sebastopol (55) is 24% below the level of May 2019 (72) and it is 31% above the inventory last month (42).  There were 25 new sales for the month of May.  This is 26% below the pace in May 2019 (34) and it is 92% above the pace last month (13). There is a 2.2 months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace.  The 11 homes that closed in Sebastopol in May went from listing to pending in 43 days.

Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (121) at the end of May in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 29% below the inventory last May (170) and it is 22% ahead of the inventory of last month (99).  At the end of the month, there were 5 listings in “Coming Soon” status and another 4 “Temporarily Off Market”.  If those were added to the “Active” inventory, there would be 130 active listings.  This would still be 24% below the inventory of last May.

There were 54 new sales for the month. This is 17% above the 46 sales in May 2019 and it is 170% ahead of the 20 sales last month.  There is a 2.2 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  For the period March, April and May, new sales remain 25% below the same period of a year ago.  The average Days on Market for the 21 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in May is 84 days.  Sixty percent (72 properties) of the inventory in the Sonoma Valley is priced at $1,000,000 or above and 52% of the new sales (28) in May were priced at over $1,000,000.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of May starts at $2,500,000.  Twenty-one homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 19 in the twelve months prior to that.  There are 29 homes available in this quartile in May 2020 compared to 65 a year ago and 24 last month. There were 12 new sales in the top quartile in May.  This is the highest number of monthly sales that we have ever experienced in this sector of the market.  It is, perhaps, another instance of the “Urban Flight Syndrome” referenced above.  Based on this sales pace, the months of inventory went from 24 to 2.4 between April and May.

Kenwood: There are 8 available homes for sale in Kenwood as of the end of May.  Last May, there were 19 homes in inventory and last month there were 8.  The Kenwood inventory peaked in May and June of last year when there were 19 homes on the market.  There were 7 new sales in Kenwood in May.  This is the highest number of sales there in any month for which we have records.  Again, the “Urban Flight Syndrome” is the likely reason.  The average asking price of the eight homes currently available in Kenwood is $2,861,000.

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of May equals 64 properties.  This is 26% above the inventory in May 2019 (51) and it is 21% above the 53 homes last month.  There were 37 new sales for the month.  This is 12% above the pace of sales in May 2019 (33) and it is 208% above the pace of last month (12).  There is a 1.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The days on market for the 15 homes that closed in May in Windsor was 72 days.  The median price ($625,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in May is 10% below the median price a year ago ($695,000).

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County: The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of May is 366 properties.  This is 31% below the number of lots in May 2019 (528) and it is 3% above the 355 lots last month.  There were 25 new lot sales in May.  This is 31% below the pace of sales in May 2019 (36) and it is 109% ahead of the pace of lot sales last month (12).  There is a 4.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 25 lots closed in May was 201 days and the median price was $260,000 – 11% ahead of the median price a year ago ($235,000).

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County: The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of May is 100 homes.  This is 6% ahead of the number of mobile homes available in May 2019 (94) and it is 9% ahead of the number of available mobile homes last month (92).  There were 36 new mobile home sales in May.  This is 39% ahead of the pace of sales in May 2019 (26) and it is 200% ahead of the pace of sales last month (12).  There is a 2.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 22 mobile homes closed in May was 109 days and the median price was $153,000.  This median price is essentially equal to the median price of $156,000 in May 2019.

Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of May (398) is 12% below the inventory in May 2019 (451) and it is 14% above the inventory last month (348). At the end of the month, there were 13 listings in “Coming Soon” status and another 38 “Temporarily Off Market”.  If those were added to the “Active” inventory, there would be 449 active listings. This would be consistent with the inventory levels we usually see in May.  It would also put us at 3.8 months supply of inventory.  Fifty percent of the inventory in Napa County (199 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above.

New sales (120) are 17% below the pace of last year (145) and are 69% ahead of the 71 sales last month.  There is a 3.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 75 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  This may be protracted with the current circumstances. The median price of the 64 homes closed in May in Napa County ($618,000) is 13% below the median price of a year ago ($710,000).  Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 92% of original list price.

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $2,000,000 in Napa County at this time.  The number of closings (92) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $2,000,000) in Napa County for the period 6/1/19 to 5/31/20 compared to 93 closings in the period 6/1/18 to 5/31/19.  There are 95 luxury homes in inventory at the end of May 2020 compared to 137 at the end of May 2019.  There were19 new luxury home listings added in the month of May.  There were 11 new Luxury Home sales in May compared to 6 last month.  This results in a 7.4 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to 3.3 months supply for the County as a whole.  Days on market for the 7 luxury homes sales in May was 161 days.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 86% of original list price.

American Canyon:  There are 23 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of May in American Canyon. This is 5% ahead of the inventory a year ago (22) and it is 44% above the supply last month (16).  New sales (13) are 46% below the pace of last year (24) and 86% ahead of the 16 sales last month.  There is a 1.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the four homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 51 days. The median price of the homes that closed in American Canyon in May ($553,000) is essentially equal to the median price of a year ago ($550,000).  The average price per square foot of the homes sold in American Canyon remains in the $250 to $310 range.  It remains a tight market in American Canyon.

Napa:  Fifty-four percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 213 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of May in the City of Napa. This is 11% below the supply at the end of May 2019 (239) and it is 9% above the inventory at the end of last month (196).  New sales (77) were 24% below the pace of May 2019 (101) and they were 54% ahead of the pace of last month (47). There is a 2.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 46 closings last month was 70 days compared to 53 days in May 2019. The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in May was $674,000. This is 9% below the median price of the homes closed in May 2019 ($739,000).

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of May (132) is 14% below the level of 154 in May 2019 and it is 25% above the inventory last month (106).  There were 20 new sales this month compared to 13 a year ago and 10 last month.  There is now a 5.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 7 closings last month was 88 days.  Approximately 56% of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $2,000,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (53 homes).  There were 4 luxury home (price in excess of $2,000,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month and there were 6 new luxury home sales.

Angwin: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of May in Angwin is 12 homes. This compares to 11 homes in May 2019 and 10 homes last month.  There were two new sales in the month of May compared to three a year ago and two last month.  The average asking price of the 12 homes in inventory in Angwin is $2,289,000.

Mobile Homes in Napa County: The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of May is 39 homes.  This is 22% below the number of mobile homes available in May 2019 (50) and it is 18% above the number of available homes last month (33). There were 11 new mobile home sales in May.  This is 15% below the pace of sales in May 2019 13) and it is 83% ahead of the pace of sales last month (6).  There is a 3.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 4 mobile homes closed in May was 92 days and the median price was $147,000.  This is 35% below the median price of $225,000 in May 2019.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of May stands at 236.  This is 38% below the inventory in May 2019 (375) and it is 5% ahead of the inventory last month (224).  New sales (61) in Mendocino County in May were about equal to the pace of May 2019 (60) and they were 126% ahead of the pace last month (27).  There now is a 3.9 months supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 25 homes sold in Mendocino County in May is 141 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  This may be protracted with the current circumstances. The median price of the homes closed in May in Mendocino County was $415,000. This is 9.5% ahead of the median price in May 2019 ($379,000).

Ukiah: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of May in Ukiah is 45 homes.  This is 49% below the level of May 2019 (89) and it is 13% ahead of the inventory last month (40).  There were 22 new sales for the month of May.  This is 38% ahead of the number of sales in May 2019 (16) and it is 144% ahead of the sales last month (9).  There is now 2 months of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 13 closings last month was 45 days.  The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from 360,000 to $480,000. The median price was $429,000 for the homes that closed in May.

Hopland and Talmage:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of May in Hopland and Talmage is 13 homes.  This is 13% below the level of May 2019 (15) and it is 44% ahead of the inventory last month (9).  There were two new sales for the month of May.  This compares to two sales in May 2019 and one new sale last month.  There is a 6.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. There were no homes that closed in May in Hopland/Talmage.

Redwood Valley and Calpella: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of May in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 15 homes.  This is 29% below the level of May 2019 (21) and it is 17% below the inventory last month (18).  There were 7 new sales for the month of May.  This compares to 7 sales in May 2019 and 4 new sales last month. There is a 2.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $655,000.

Marin County: Marin County’s inventory (459 homes) is 23% below the 597 homes in May 2019 and it is 53% above the 301 homes in inventory last month.  New sales (281) were slightly below the number last May (289) and were 156% ahead of last month (110).  This creates a 1.6 months supply.  The median price of the 141 homes sold in Marin County in May was $1,200,000.  This is the close to the median price a year ago ($1,239,000).